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Post by azteccc on Dec 21, 2012 12:00:53 GMT -8
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 21, 2012 12:09:16 GMT -8
#3 and only .0023 behind #1. Sweet. Even going 2-1 in Hawaii May move the MWC to the top. .0023 behind the Big 10 .0023 * 9 teams = .0207 Aztecs will move about .0400 by going 2-1 in Hawaii. That is a move not accounted for in RPI Forecast since they don't know who we will play. That move will get mitigated somewhat due to extra games being played before the end of the season but it should have enough punch to move us into the top. If we go 3-0 we move .0684. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2012 12:17:55 GMT -8
...and the Big West, our 2013-14 home is 23rd, just 2 spots behind the Summit League (whatever that is). ;D
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Post by socialsdsu on Dec 21, 2012 12:22:10 GMT -8
Yet the big 12 will still get more in than the MWC, tells the importance of RPI.  |
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Post by MonsterSiZiN on Dec 21, 2012 12:26:03 GMT -8
#3 and only .0023 behind #1. Sweet. Even going 2-1 in Hawaii May move the MWC to the top. .0023 behind the Big 10 .0023 * 9 teams = .0207 Aztecs will move about .0400 by going 2-1 in Hawaii. That is a move not accounted for in RPI Forecast since they don't know who we will play. That move will get mitigated somewhat due to extra games being played before the end of the season but it should have enough punch to move us into the top. If we go 3-0 we move .0684. Nothing but a prediction game and MWC is probably the most unpredictable conference in the nation. They have SDSU finishing 9-7 in conference play. |
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 21, 2012 14:05:39 GMT -8
#3 and only .0023 behind #1. Sweet. Even going 2-1 in Hawaii May move the MWC to the top. .0023 behind the Big 10 .0023 * 9 teams = .0207 Aztecs will move about .0400 by going 2-1 in Hawaii. That is a move not accounted for in RPI Forecast since they don't know who we will play. That move will get mitigated somewhat due to extra games being played before the end of the season but it should have enough punch to move us into the top. If we go 3-0 we move .0684. Nothing but a prediction game and MWC is probably the most unpredictable conference in the nation. They have SDSU finishing 9-7 in conference play. Discounting those numbers is misguided. Projected end-of-year conference RPI, after OOC play, can be calculated very accurately. We are almost through OOC play. We play OOC to establish how big a pie our conference gets. Conference games determine how much of that pie each team gets. The MWC will come away with a very big pie. The MWC is unpredictable because we have a bunch of very strong teams at the top. Wyoming, Boise State, UNLV, New Mexico, CSU, and SDSU are all very good. |
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 21, 2012 14:22:50 GMT -8
Yet the big 12 will still get more in than the MWC, tells the importance of RPI. The highest ranked team in RPI that didn't make the dance in 2012 was #44 Marshall. The lowest ranked team in RPI that did make the dance in 2012 was #53 Virginia. Yes RPI does matter. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2012 14:25:18 GMT -8
Yet the big 12 will still get more in than the MWC, tells the importance of RPI. The highest ranked team in RPI that didn't make the dance in 2012 was #44 Marshall. The lowest ranked team in RPI that did make the dance in 2012 was #53 Virginia. Yes RPI does matter. I'm confused. Does that mean the auto-bids from lower conferences have an RPI higher than 53? |
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Post by aztectruth on Dec 21, 2012 15:02:27 GMT -8
#3 and only .0023 behind #1. Sweet. Even going 2-1 in Hawaii May move the MWC to the top. .0023 behind the Big 10 .0023 * 9 teams = .0207 Aztecs will move about .0400 by going 2-1 in Hawaii. That is a move not accounted for in RPI Forecast since they don't know who we will play. That move will get mitigated somewhat due to extra games being played before the end of the season but it should have enough punch to move us into the top. If we go 3-0 we move .0684. Nothing but a prediction game and MWC is probably the most unpredictable conference in the nation. They have SDSU finishing 9-7 in conference play. Yeah, I think their current projections are based purely on the team's current win % isn't it? So their projections for conference play are probably pretty inaccurate, but their rpi projections are probably going to be pretty close |
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 21, 2012 16:13:42 GMT -8
Nothing but a prediction game and MWC is probably the most unpredictable conference in the nation. They have SDSU finishing 9-7 in conference play. Yeah, I think their current projections are based purely on the team's current win % isn't it? So their projections for conference play are probably pretty inaccurate, but their rpi projections are probably going to be pretty close No. Their projections are based upon the entire RPI formula. They run simulated seasons with random wins and loses based upon the percentage chance of a win from PREDICTOR. Then average a million seasons to get your projected RPI, W/L and SOS. So all our opponents are also getting this projection and those results are feed into the process. |
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 21, 2012 16:19:22 GMT -8
The highest ranked team in RPI that didn't make the dance in 2012 was #44 Marshall. The lowest ranked team in RPI that did make the dance in 2012 was #53 Virginia. Yes RPI does matter. I'm confused. Does that mean the auto-bids from lower conferences have an RPI higher than 53? It means "auto-bids from lower conferences" are irrelavant for this discussion. |
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