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Post by AztecBill on Dec 19, 2012 9:14:34 GMT -8
Below shows those 3 games shooting plus the games since. It seems we not only had to worry, but damm those Aztecs can shoot. 45.5% 3 point shooting in the last 7 games. | | 1st 3 | Last 7 | Last Year | | 1P | 56.1 | 74.1 | 70.1 | | 2P | 46.8 | 50.2 | 50.2 | | 3P | 15.3 | 45.5 | 34.1 |
I added last year's data for comparison. |
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Post by sdsportfan on Dec 19, 2012 9:23:39 GMT -8
Nice!
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Dec 19, 2012 9:32:37 GMT -8
Speak for yourself, Bill...  I've been maintaining that over the course of the season, the numbers would balance out. I always assumed we would (eventually) shoot our average (after all, they're our averages, no?). Anything above and beyond that is, well...  |
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Post by AztecBill on Dec 19, 2012 10:22:53 GMT -8
Speak for yourself, Bill... I've been maintaining that over the course of the season, the numbers would balance out. I always assumed we would (eventually) shoot our average (after all, they're our averages, no?). Anything above and beyond that is, well... Everyone always shoots their average since whatever they shoot becomes their average. Changed it for you. |
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Post by aztecan on Dec 19, 2012 10:29:06 GMT -8
No more aircraft carriers! Never again!
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Post by longtimebooster on Dec 19, 2012 10:35:57 GMT -8
I was very worried about our shooting after the first three games for several reasons:
1. This team is designed to depend upon great guard play and great outside shooting. We have tall, rangy, quick guys in the paint, not the typical big, bulldozing types. As a result, when we play really good teams or get to the Tourney, we're going to need some hot outside shooting to open things up and prevent bigger teams from collapsing on us down low. (That's essentially how we skewered UCLA.0
2. Fisher's teams have historically been mediocre from beyond about 5-feet. Think about it. White and Malcolm were automatic inside the paint, but almost never took anything midrange and beyond. Kawhi was iffy from midrange and horrible from beyond the arc. Gay was streaky. And Tapley was solid, but not yet deadly. Previous teams of Fisher's were even worse from outside the paint and FT shooting was always a bit shaky. As for last year's team, we were really hurt by Rahon's injury. As a result, the other guys were getting doubled on the perimeter, defusing our better shooters.
3. Rahon was the biggest question mark. He was really off last year, and it hurt. When he started this year out of the gate by going something like 2-18, I and others began thinking maybe something was permanently wrong with his stroke. However, the guy has been on fire ever since. Kudos.
The result now is that we have become one of the best-shooting teams in the country. Any of our three guards can just splash it from behind the arc. Thames, Tapley and Rahon are absolutely deadly. When they're open, I never think "miss." They really challenge defenses and make them stretch. We have a true inside and true outside game. And that makes it really, really hard to defend. We give teams fits.
Oddly, the worst shooter on the team (among guys we depend upon to score, IMO, is Franklin. He's great at creating shots, getting putbacks, driving the lane, etc. What he's not so great at are mid-range pull-up jumpers and three-point shots. He doesn't have a really sweet stroke. If he did, he'd be Lottery material. Let's hope he can develop one as the season progresses. I know he's been working on it, but it's still not quite there yet.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Dec 19, 2012 11:40:31 GMT -8
Speak for yourself, Bill... I've been maintaining that over the course of the season, the numbers would balance out. I always assumed we would (eventually) shoot our average (after all, they're our averages, no?). Anything above and beyond that is, well... Everyone always shoots their average since whatever they shoot becomes their average. Changed it for you. Right. And I was speaking in reference to our historical average, not a real-time moving average, which to use as a meaningful metric in this context would be, well, f*tarded.  We know what Chase, Jamaal, X, and Rahon shot last year. We know what Chase and Rahon shot the year before. And I have been maintaining since Day One that once we were shooting our historical average, we would be a dangerous team. |
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Post by sdsuballer on Dec 19, 2012 12:13:14 GMT -8
I'm still a little concern with our shooting. But our rebounding has been awful. You take out Jamaals stats of our team stats and we would be out the bottom of the mtn west. As much as JJ obrien can play multiple positions, he is awful at rebounding for our PF spots. I expect johnson and stephens to play together more often this season.
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Post by monty on Dec 19, 2012 12:17:50 GMT -8
We were underperforming, we're now overperforming. Johnson doesn't seem like he'll just be a space filler, so, I think our size is fine, our shooting is fine, our defense is elite, our clutchness is elite. We have a very good squad.
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Post by azdick on Dec 19, 2012 12:20:22 GMT -8
"Oddly, the worst shooter on the team (among guys we depend upon to score, IMO, is Franklin. He's great at creating shots, getting putbacks, driving the lane, etc. What he's not so great at are mid-range pull-up jumpers and three-point shots. He doesn't have a really sweet stroke. If he did, he'd be Lottery material. Let's hope he can develop one as the season progresses. I know he's been working on it, but it's still not quite there yet. "I see a major change in his stroke, especially longer jump shots. Last year he almost spun the ball toward the hoop from the sides of the ball. He's gotten much more behind the ball and is using his right hand as the dominant release. I'd say Coach Schaffer has been doing his magic. As always Bill, thanks for keeping us up with the data. Really adds a great deal of interest to being MBB fan. 
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Post by longtimebooster on Dec 19, 2012 12:23:45 GMT -8
I'm still a little concern with our shooting. I'm not at all. These guys have been absolutely burying it for the past 5 or 6 games. But our rebounding has been awful. You take out Jamaals stats of our team stats and we would be out the bottom of the mtn west. As much as JJ obrien can play multiple positions, he is awful at rebounding for our PF spots. I expect johnson and stephens to play together more often this season. We'll see if our rebounding picks up with Johnson in the regular rotation. To date, we've been going primarily with smaller lineups that often include 3 and even 4 guards (if you consider JF a 2/3). Stephens can grab boards, but it seems Polee, Spencer and Shep get out-muscled and out-worked in the paint. As for JJ, he's more of a 2/3-sized guy. I wouldn't count on him for pounding the boards. I believe our best rebounding lineup would be something like this: * Thames * Tapley * Franklin * Stephens * Johnson Or maybe: * Tapley * Franklin * Spencer/Polee * Stephens * Johnson Or maybe: * Shepard * Franklin * Spencer/Polee * Stephens * Johnson |
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Post by podpeople on Dec 19, 2012 12:36:42 GMT -8
shooting is streaky anyhow. One thing you can always depend on are measured specs, such as our recently acquired Big Johnson.
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Post by RB Aztec on Dec 19, 2012 12:42:50 GMT -8
Next time you watch Jamaal, notice where he has success with his 3 point shots. Whenever he shoots from the top of the key, he nails them. From anywhere else, I groan when he puts it up because his % is not good.
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Post by longtimebooster on Dec 19, 2012 12:47:49 GMT -8
Next time you watch Jamaal, notice where he has success with his 3 point shots. Whenever he shoots from the top of the key, he nails them. From anywhere else, I groan when he puts it up because his % is not good. Top of the key is always the easiest place to hit a trey. You have much better perspective. Don't have to worry about angles. If your shot is a little long, or if you hit the front of the rim, you always have the backboard to help the shot bounce through the hole. Typically, you don't have that from other angles. When I was young, I could nail threes from the corners. Used to be one of my favorite shots. Now that I'm in an Over-40 bball league, I quit shooting treys from the corners all-together. I just don't have the depth perception. I just see a rim out there floating in space. It's a hard shot even for the young-uns. |
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Post by aztecgold on Dec 19, 2012 12:55:11 GMT -8
Still worried to some degree. Let's see how they shoot against top competition. We have not seen anyone close to Syracuse on defense in awhile. I think the key is Rahon. If he can hit his shot then we are ok. I hope we don't miss Shrigley down the stretch. Tapley is lights out! Franklin is good in the clutch and X-man seems to come through in the big games. And most importantly, if you play good defense then you are in every game.
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Post by longtimebooster on Dec 19, 2012 13:28:26 GMT -8
I just went back and crunched some numbers, and our shooting right now is off the charts. Or primary shooters -- Tapley, Thames, Rahon and Franklin are en fuego.
Right now here's how we shape up:
FG (2pt):
Tapley: .447
Thames: .356
Rahon: .403
Franklin: .456
3-pt.:
Tapley: ..458
Thames: .429
Rahon: .310
Franklin: .268
FT:
Tapley: .864
Thames: .818
Rahon: .750
Franklin: .754
As it is, a few things stand out, namely:
* Franklin shouldn't be shooting threes. He's a much better inside guy.
* Everyone is nailing their FTs, which is important because this group accounts for 56% of all the fouls drawn. 75% for your worst FT shooter is outstanding.
* Anything over about 38% for your 3-pt. shooter is very good.
But upon further inspection, our shooting gets even better. When you back out the Syracuse boat game, the numbers really go up for three-point shooting. That's because this foursome went 1-18 in that game. Also, I backed out Rahon's first three games, in which he shot a collective 1-16 from behind the arc.
3-pt. adjusted:
Tapley: .500
Thames: .484
Rahon: .461
Franklin: .314
Now, those are some crazy numbers. 40% is great from behind the arc. But three guys shooting over 46%, that's torrid. And Tapley ranks among the top 20 three-point shooters in the country with those numbers.
And I understand that we're playing some scrub teams, but these guys also shot this well against the likes of UCLA, USC, Mizzou St., etc. That's some decent competition. We'll see if it holds through conference play, but the trend is extremely encouraging.
And, of course, Rahon is a key guy. He shot .320 from behind the arc last year -- about 90 points below the average of his first two years.
Thames has improved markedly. He shot only 30% from behind the arc last year. Tapley shot 43%.
So they're all shooting a significant leap above their career averages going into the season. Very cool.
And, again, Franklin shouldn't be shooting treys.
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Post by sdsustoner on Dec 19, 2012 13:53:35 GMT -8
I didn't even count the first game's shooting since we're on a windy boat.
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