How much are Cabrera's Stolen Bases worth?

[AztecBill]

wOBA tries to create a single number that assesses a players offensive value. That formaula is detailed here.

In that formula, Stolen Bases are worth .25 each and caught stealing are worth negative .50. Cabrera's 44 SB and 4 CS is therefore worth 9.0. Using that same formula we can determine what that value is worth as expressed in other offensive achivements. The table below shows how other base stealers fair in that value. It has columns that show what those would be worth. For instance, it is equivalent to turning 9.7 outs into singles. That would raise Cabrera's BA from .246 to .271. It would be like turing 28 singles into doubles.

PLAYER	TEAM	SB	CS	wSB	Out ->HR	Out->2B	Out->1B	1B->2B	1B->HR
Everth Cabrera	SD	44	4	9.00	4.62	7.26	9.78	28.13	8.74
Shane Victorino	LAD/PHI	39	6	6.75	3.46	5.44	7.34	21.09	6.55
Carlos Gomez	MIL	37	6	6.25	3.21	5.04	6.79	19.53	6.07
Emilio Bonifacio	MIA	30	3	6.00	3.08	4.84	6.52	18.75	5.83
Tony Campana	CHC	30	3	6.00	3.08	4.84	6.52	18.75	5.83
Juan Pierre	PHI	37	7	5.75	2.95	4.64	6.25	17.97	5.58
Jimmy Rollins	PHI	30	5	5.00	2.56	4.03	5.43	15.63	4.85
Jose Reyes	MIA	40	11	4.50	2.31	3.63	4.89	14.06	4.37
Michael Bourn	ATL	42	13	4.00	2.05	3.23	4.35	12.50	3.88
Ryan Braun	MIL	30	7	4.00	2.05	3.23	4.35	12.50	3.88
Drew Stubbs	CIN	30	7	4.00	2.05	3.23	4.35	12.50	3.88
Angel Pagan	SF	29	7	3.75	1.92	3.02	4.08	11.72	3.64
Norichika Aoki	MIL	30	8	3.50	1.79	2.82	3.80	10.94	3.40
Gregor Blanco	SF	26	6	3.50	1.79	2.82	3.80	10.94	3.40
Dee Gordon	LAD	32	10	3.00	1.54	2.42	3.26	9.38	2.91
Cameron Maybin	SD	26	7	3.00	1.54	2.42	3.26	9.38	2.91
Will Venable	SD	24	6	3.00	1.54	2.42	3.26	9.38	2.91
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	18	3	3.00	1.54	2.42	3.26	9.38	2.91
Jose Altuve	HOU	33	11	2.75	1.41	2.22	2.99	8.59	2.67
Brandon Phillips	CIN	15	2	2.75	1.41	2.22	2.99	8.59	2.67
Carlos Gonzalez	COL	20	5	2.50	1.28	2.02	2.72	7.81	2.43
Rickie Weeks	MIL	16	3	2.50	1.28	2.02	2.72	7.81	2.43
Jordan Schafer	HOU	27	9	2.25	1.15	1.81	2.45	7.03	2.18
Ian Desmond	WSH	21	6	2.25	1.15	1.81	2.45	7.03	2.18
Martin Prado	ATL	17	4	2.25	1.15	1.81	2.45	7.03	2.18
Roger Bernadina	WSH	15	3	2.25	1.15	1.81	2.45	7.03	2.18
Danny Espinosa	WSH	20	6	2.00	1.03	1.61	2.17	6.25	1.94
Hanley Ramirez	LAD/MIA	21	7	1.75	0.90	1.41	1.90	5.47	1.70
Brian Bogusevic	HOU	15	4	1.75	0.90	1.41	1.90	5.47	1.70
Bryce Harper	WSH	18	6	1.50	0.77	1.21	1.63	4.69	1.46

[AztecBill]

Using wOBA (including steals and CS) the average value of all players playing SS in MLB is .305. Cabrera's average is .306. I am surpirsed. I was sure Cabrera's offense would be below average. It is right at average (.001 above) for MLB Short Stops.

[aztecmusician]

I became a fan of Cabrera after his steal of home vs. The Dodgers this year. Yes, speed is a valuable commodity, especially in Petco Park and Evereth just led the NL in steals. Keep him as a Padre, if he can raise the batting average 15/20 points he should start at SS.

[AztecBill]

Oct 15, 2012 23:01:14 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

I became a fan of Cabrera after his steal of home vs. The Dodgers this year. Yes, speed is a valuable commodity, especially in Petco Park and Evereth just led the NL in steals. Keep him as a Padre, if he can raise the batting average 15/20 points he should start at SS.

Raising his Batting Average 15/20 points would be great but raising his On Base Percentage 15/20 via walks would be nearly as good.

---

Cabrera is a switch hitter but this year he hit much better against right handed pitching. Forsythe hits much better against left handed pitching and Gyorko (right handed) also hit better against lefties this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cabrera as a back at SS and 2B often playing one or the other against right handed pitchers.

Cabrera L/R Split 2012
vs LHP .195 .266 .257 .523
vs RHP .267 .347 .351 .698

Forsythe L/R Split 2012
vs LHP .384 .465 .545 1.010
vs RHP .222 .284 .319 .603

Gyorko L/R Split (AAA) 2012
vs LHP .354 .417 .646 1.063
vs RHP .319 .367 .568 .934

If Cabrera played against all RHP splitting time between SS and 2B and Gyorko and Forsythe played the rest of the time the players would start.

Cabrera 55 games
Forsythe 107 games
Gyorko 107 games

It might not be a bad idea. It should be considered. Of course, it can be adjusted depending on how the three play.

[Deleted]

***It would be like having a shortstop that hit .271 with zero stolen bases. ***

[AztecBill]

Oct 16, 2012 20:15:54 GMT -8 @tecpride00 said:

***It would be like having a shortstop that hit .271 with zero stolen bases. ***

Yes. That is what turning 10 outs into singles would do. It would also increase his OBP to .342.

But if you look at his BA versus right handed pitching and adjusted it via stolen bases in that split only, his BA adjusts to .296 and his OBP is .367. Now we are talking about a SS well above average. Hopefully Cabrera will get 85%+ of his PA next year against right handed pitching. With Forsythe and Gyorko hopefully that will not be a problem.

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2012 7:16:47 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

Oct 16, 2012 20:15:54 GMT -8 @tecpride00 said:

***It would be like having a shortstop that hit .271 with zero stolen bases. ***

Yes. That is what turning 10 outs into singles would do. It would also increase his OBP to .342.

But if you look at his BA versus right handed pitching and adjusted it via stolen bases in that split only, his BA adjusts to .296 and his OBP is .367. Now we are talking about a SS well above average. Hopefully Cabrera will get 85%+ of his PA next year against right handed pitching. With Forsythe and Gyorko hopefully that will not be a problem.

You're a psycho.

[AztecBill]

Oct 17, 2012 12:53:25 GMT -8 @tecpride00 said:

You're a psycho.

This is a Padres forum, not a Bill's mental health forum