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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2012 19:59:07 GMT -8
I know it's a long shot with the Padres having to jump several teams, but as of Sept 13 they are only 6.5 games out of the wildcard.
Now that would be something!!!
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Post by jhonka34 on Sept 13, 2012 20:19:16 GMT -8
I know it's a long shot with the Padres having to jump several teams, but as of Sept 13 they are only 6.5 games out of the wildcard. Now that would be something!!! They have a series against many of those teams and the Cardinals have just been dreadful of late.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 13, 2012 21:57:10 GMT -8
Without sounding too much like Bill, since the Padres 20-41 start through 61 games, they have gone 49-34, good for a .590 winning percentage. Not bad at all. A .590 winning percentage extended over the whole season (speaking hypothetically of course) would be good for 4th in all of baseball right now.
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Sept 14, 2012 0:38:38 GMT -8
I know it's a long shot with the Padres having to jump several teams, but as of Sept 13 they are only 6.5 games out of the wildcard. Now that would be something!!! It would indeed! Unfortunately, even if they can maintain their current strong play, time is not our friend in chasing down the teams ahead of us... My general rule of thumb is that, barring a complete collapse by the teams you're trying to catch, 1 1/2 games per week is a realistic rate of reeling them in. Having head to head games against them does give you the opportunity to accelerate that, but even if you extend that to picking up 2 games per week, with only 2 weeks remaining, that puts the Zonies as the only team in our division that falls within a realistic range to catch. The Dodgers are still 5 games ahead of us, so we would need either a sweep when they come in here, or for them to continue their recent losing streak... not impossible, but probably more than we can hope for. In the wild card standings, only the Pirates, Brewers, Phillies, and the aforementioned Zonies fall within the 4 game range, so that's a highly unlikely target as well. What are realistic goals are to pass the Zonies for 3rd in the division, and a longshot chance to try to reach the .500 mark, which would require a 12-6 record (.667) over the final stretch. That would require a run even better than their recent .590 pace. That three of our opponents in that stretch (Colorado, Zonies, Dodgers) have been struggling can't hurt our chances, but it's still a real longshot.
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 14, 2012 7:36:50 GMT -8
I know it's a long shot with the Padres having to jump several teams, but as of Sept 13 they are only 6.5 games out of the wildcard. Now that would be something!!! It would indeed! Unfortunately, even if they can maintain their current strong play, time is not our friend in chasing down the teams ahead of us... My general rule of thumb is that, barring a complete collapse by the teams you're trying to catch, 1 1/2 games per week is a realistic rate of reeling them in. Having head to head games against them does give you the opportunity to accelerate that, but even if you extend that to picking up 2 games per week, with only 2 weeks remaining, that puts the Zonies as the only team in our division that falls within a realistic range to catch. The Dodgers are still 5 games ahead of us, so we would need either a sweep when they come in here, or for them to continue their recent losing streak... not impossible, but probably more than we can hope for. In the wild card standings, only the Pirates, Brewers, Phillies, and the aforementioned Zonies fall within the 4 game range, so that's a highly unlikely target as well. What are realistic goals are to pass the Zonies for 3rd in the division, and a longshot chance to try to reach the .500 mark, which would require a 12-6 record (.667) over the final stretch. That would require a run even better than their recent .590 pace. That three of our opponents in that stretch (Colorado, Zonies, Dodgers) have been struggling can't hurt our chances, but it's still a real longshot. To back K2's point, in 2007 the Rockies were only 5.0 games behind the Padres when they started their improbable run by winning 13 of 14 to end September. But then again the Padres were 11-3 except for being sweep 3 games by the Rockies.
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Post by jhonka34 on Sept 14, 2012 20:32:41 GMT -8
What are realistic goals are to pass the Zonies for 3rd in the division, and a longshot chance to try to reach the .500 mark, which would require a 12-6 record (.667) over the final stretch. That would require a run even better than their recent .590 pace. That three of our opponents in that stretch (Colorado, Zonies, Dodgers) have been struggling can't hurt our chances, but it's still a real longshot. 12-6 isn't bad, they've needed the same pace for the last two weeks. They needed 20-10 at one point. It basically means winning every series left. Unfortunately they lost the Colorado series (and things don't look good tonight) but they made that game up by sweeping the Cardinals. Figure they'll drop 1-2 more series and hope they can pick up a sweep or two and 12-6 isn't unreasonable.
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Post by AztecBill on Sept 17, 2012 7:38:18 GMT -8
What are realistic goals are to pass the Zonies for 3rd in the division, and a longshot chance to try to reach the .500 mark, which would require a 12-6 record (.667) over the final stretch. That would require a run even better than their recent .590 pace. That three of our opponents in that stretch (Colorado, Zonies, Dodgers) have been struggling can't hurt our chances, but it's still a real longshot. 12-6 isn't bad, they've needed the same pace for the last two weeks. They needed 20-10 at one point. It basically means winning every series left. Unfortunately they lost the Colorado series (and things don't look good tonight) but they made that game up by sweeping the Cardinals. Figure they'll drop 1-2 more series and hope they can pick up a sweep or two and 12-6 isn't unreasonable. Down to 10-5. Playing the Giants 6 times is the biggest obstacle. They have been playing well too.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2012 20:28:15 GMT -8
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