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Post by johneaztec on Oct 24, 2024 9:14:26 GMT -8
I had just looked at that one. It's a close race since polls are almost divided equally between the two with Trump seeming to be in the lead in more polls at the moment. In the article below, the betting odds are overwhelmingly in favor of Trump. Question. Since you know more about betting than I do, and I learned from you that casinos want people to bet both ways so they can win the juice, (I think I have that right) isn't the odds so overwhelmingly in favor of Trump them wanting to win the juice goes out the door? Doesn't that come into play only when the odds are close? I know things can, and probably will change, but I was shocked to see him with those odds. www.app.com/story/news/politics/2024/10/24/election-betting-odds-harris-trump-538-polls-real-clear-politics-oct-23/75000655007/There's always going to be juice/vig associated with any wager. All the odds are saying is there's a x% chance of someone winning. Even in current scenarios, Harris wins better than one out of three times. Bettors overwhelmingly lean Republican traditionally, so it's not really a surprise to see movement towards the Trump side. It's less surprising when you see that the market is being manipulated by heavy money whales that are placing massive wagers on exchanges. That will skew odds very quickly if you dump in millions in short order on one side. Are those whales putting big money on Trump because they're convinced he's going to win, or is it some strategy to manipulate the market and bet differently right before the election? They certainly don't want to lose millions of dollars, them, or the casinos for that matter. |
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 24, 2024 9:37:03 GMT -8
There's always going to be juice/vig associated with any wager. All the odds are saying is there's a x% chance of someone winning. Even in current scenarios, Harris wins better than one out of three times. Bettors overwhelmingly lean Republican traditionally, so it's not really a surprise to see movement towards the Trump side. It's less surprising when you see that the market is being manipulated by heavy money whales that are placing massive wagers on exchanges. That will skew odds very quickly if you dump in millions in short order on one side. Are those whales putting big money on Trump because they're convinced he's going to win, or is it some strategy to manipulate the market and bet differently right before the election? They certainly don't want to lose millions of dollars, them, or the casinos for that matter. Gamblers are not rational individuals. I've seen guys singlehandedly lose millions in a day and not bat an eyelash. It's all about who is doing it. But to put the current odds in perspective, Trump's moneyline is basically the equivalent of tonight's NFL game. Minnesota is favored by a field goal, with a moneyline of -147. That's essentially identical to Trump's current perceived winning percentage, right around 59%. |
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Post by johneaztec on Oct 24, 2024 9:43:25 GMT -8
Are those whales putting big money on Trump because they're convinced he's going to win, or is it some strategy to manipulate the market and bet differently right before the election? They certainly don't want to lose millions of dollars, them, or the casinos for that matter. Gamblers are not rational individuals. I've seen guys singlehandedly lose millions in a day and not bat an eyelash. It's all about who is doing it. But to put the current odds in perspective, Trump's moneyline is basically the equivalent of tonight's NFL game. Minnesota is favored by a field goal, with a moneyline of -147. That's essentially identical to Trump's current perceived winning percentage, right around 59%. That's interesting. Ok, thanks. |
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 24, 2024 10:41:21 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Oct 24, 2024 11:39:32 GMT -8
Wow. He must be pretty sure of the outcome, or maybe he's a sort of a broker and makes bets for several people. |
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Post by johneaztec on Oct 24, 2024 11:49:45 GMT -8
WSJ has Trump up by 2 percentage points. It's 50-50. |
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Post by johneaztec on Oct 24, 2024 11:55:02 GMT -8
What is more interesting to me, are the betting odds. I'm going to switch and follow those instead of polls. I'm doing that because it's just fascinating to me how a person/people would bet millions of dollars and possibly lose it all, whether or not it's meaningless to them. It's incredible.
I want to see if the bettor(s) in France knew what they were doing, or if they lost millions of dollars. It's really mind boggling to me. Trump's the big time odds on favorite to win so they're not going to double their money or come close to it.
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Post by sdsuball on Oct 24, 2024 12:01:32 GMT -8
What is more interesting to me, are the betting odds. I'm going to switch and follow those instead of polls. I'm doing that because it's just fascinating to me how a person/people would bet millions of dollars and possibly lose it all, whether or not it's meaningless to them. It's incredible. I want to see if the bettor(s) in France knew what they were doing, or if they lost millions of dollars. It's really mind boggling to me. Trump's the big time odds on favorite to win so they're not going to double their money or come close to it. Could just be billionaires betting on what they want to happen. Could also be billionaires hoping that it psychologically impacts voters who follow betting lines. There is an effect where voters don't want to turn out for a 'wasted' vote, or don't want to put in a vote if they think their candidate is going to lose. By manipulating polls, they can try to manipulate votes. And again, for a billionaire, they have nothing better to do. Just a way to make their boring lives 'interesting'. By boring lives I mean, I bet some of them have done everything there is to do in the world (pretty much), and experience very little novelty in their lives at this point. |
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 24, 2024 12:03:41 GMT -8
What is more interesting to me, are the betting odds. I'm going to switch and follow those instead of polls. I'm doing that because it's just fascinating to me how a person/people would bet millions of dollars and possibly lose it all, whether or not it's meaningless to them. It's incredible. I want to see if the bettor(s) in France knew what they were doing, or if they lost millions of dollars. It's really mind boggling to me. Trump's the big time odds on favorite to win so they're not going to double their money or come close to it. This, again, won't be helpful. Betting on an exchange isn't the same as betting on a sportsbook. Trump is not a big time favorite to win, he's essentially -150. That's not even a moderate favorite. |
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Post by johneaztec on Oct 24, 2024 13:18:22 GMT -8
What is more interesting to me, are the betting odds. I'm going to switch and follow those instead of polls. I'm doing that because it's just fascinating to me how a person/people would bet millions of dollars and possibly lose it all, whether or not it's meaningless to them. It's incredible. I want to see if the bettor(s) in France knew what they were doing, or if they lost millions of dollars. It's really mind boggling to me. Trump's the big time odds on favorite to win so they're not going to double their money or come close to it. This, again, won't be helpful. Betting on an exchange isn't the same as betting on a sportsbook. Trump is not a big time favorite to win, he's essentially -150. That's not even a moderate favorite. Doesn't that mean that you have to bet $150 to win $100? If so, then imagine what the bet would be if it's in the millions. Having said that, like I said, the money aspect of it is fascinating to me even if it doesn't mean much in terms of the outcome. |
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 24, 2024 13:22:39 GMT -8
This, again, won't be helpful. Betting on an exchange isn't the same as betting on a sportsbook. Trump is not a big time favorite to win, he's essentially -150. That's not even a moderate favorite. Doesn't that mean that you have to bet $150 to win $100? If so, then imagine what the bet would be if it's in the millions. Having said that, like I said, the money aspect of it is fascinating to me even if it doesn't mean much in terms of the outcome. It's $1.5M to win $1M. |
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Post by johneaztec on Oct 24, 2024 14:30:38 GMT -8
Doesn't that mean that you have to bet $150 to win $100? If so, then imagine what the bet would be if it's in the millions. Having said that, like I said, the money aspect of it is fascinating to me even if it doesn't mean much in terms of the outcome. It's $1.5M to win $1M. Dang, $500,000 juice. Crazy. Who do you like on the Viking-Rams game tonight? |
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 24, 2024 14:36:53 GMT -8
Dang, $500,000 juice. Crazy. Who do you like on the Viking-Rams game tonight? Pass. Teams that have come off a Detroit game are 0-4 ATS the following week. Would normally be a Minnesota smash spot, but fair to wonder where their heads are at after a tough loss to a divisional team on a short week. Back to the election for a second: With pretty much every swing state poll within the margin of error, I personally wouldn't bet either candidate at Trump's current line. I think Republicans have finally caught on to the early voting process, so those numbers bear watching in the coming days. |
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Post by johneaztec on Oct 24, 2024 15:16:25 GMT -8
Dang, $500,000 juice. Crazy. Who do you like on the Viking-Rams game tonight? Pass. Teams that have come off a Detroit game are 0-4 ATS the following week. Would normally be a Minnesota smash spot, but fair to wonder where their heads are at after a tough loss to a divisional team on a short week. Back to the election for a second: With pretty much every swing state poll within the margin of error, I personally wouldn't bet either candidate at Trump's current line. I think Republicans have finally caught on to the early voting process, so those numbers bear watching in the coming days. Yeah, I was shocked that the Vikings were only favored by 3 and I know there's consideration for the home team. Kupps back for the Rams. Maybe there's influence there. Maybe a let down game for the Vikings. The election is such a crap shoot right now. If I was a betting man I'd bet on Harris just to win some real money. It's such a toss up. |
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Oct 25, 2024 9:38:21 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 25, 2024 9:45:25 GMT -8
The LA Times: Refuses to make a presidential endorsement.
The Washington Post: Refuses to make a presidential endorsement.
Real-time decay (death?) of democracy in view.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Oct 25, 2024 10:31:03 GMT -8
The LA Times: Refuses to make a presidential endorsement. The Washington Post: Refuses to make a presidential endorsement. Real-time decay (death?) of democracy in view. That's crazy. Harris would be a good President. Trump would be a disaster. It's hard to NOT make a call there. |
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 25, 2024 10:32:12 GMT -8
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Post by aztecbrothers on Oct 25, 2024 11:39:31 GMT -8
The LA Times: Refuses to make a presidential endorsement. The Washington Post: Refuses to make a presidential endorsement. Real-time decay (death?) of democracy in view. That's crazy. Harris would be a good President. Trump would be a disaster. It's hard to NOT make a call there. Harris is starting to adopt more and more of Trump's policies and ideas. This is pissing off the Left. The problem is that she would have no idea on how to get them done unless Trump put them on a teleprompter for her to read. |
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Post by aztecryan on Oct 25, 2024 11:55:39 GMT -8
That's crazy. Harris would be a good President. Trump would be a disaster. It's hard to NOT make a call there. Harris is starting to adopt more and more of Trump's policies and ideas. This is pissing off the Left. The problem is that she would have no idea on how to get them done unless Trump put them on a teleprompter for her to read. Because when I think of political masterminds, I think of a geriatric who can't form complete sentences. |
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