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Post by aztecryan on Jun 5, 2024 14:14:22 GMT -8
Outside of the walks and the opponent Mazur looked good. Definitely earned that second start against Arizona. Maybe we have something here that will lessen the need to sell the remainder of the farm for Crochet. Frankly we need a reliever more than another starter. Yes. In terms of pitching, that's correct, which is what you're implying. I get it. It's actually not correct, especially if Musgrove and Darvish miss more time.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 5, 2024 14:33:58 GMT -8
Bullpen rankings:
WAR - 9th FIP - 9th xFIP - 10th WHIP - 7th SIERA - 11th
And that's with Matsui's struggles, Estrada's late arrival and carrying Kolek.
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 5, 2024 14:35:06 GMT -8
Yes. In terms of pitching, that's correct, which is what you're implying. I get it. It's actually not correct, especially if Musgrove and Darvish miss more time. If one of the two come back we're ok there, at least until he proves he's not. The way Mazur looked, gives hope.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 5, 2024 14:39:40 GMT -8
It's actually not correct, especially if Musgrove and Darvish miss more time. If one of the two come back we're ok there, at least until he proves he's not. The way Mazur looked, gives hope. The production gap between rotation assets and bullpen assets is high. The pen has been fine, they would be wise to seek a mid-tier starter.
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 5, 2024 15:10:13 GMT -8
If one of the two come back we're ok there, at least until he proves he's not. The way Mazur looked, gives hope. The production gap between rotation assets and bullpen assets is high. The pen has been fine, they would be wise to seek a mid-tier starter. There's some individuals who aren't cutting it. We could do better.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 5, 2024 15:20:25 GMT -8
The production gap between rotation assets and bullpen assets is high. The pen has been fine, they would be wise to seek a mid-tier starter. There's some individuals who aren't cutting it. We could do better. In relation to being down both your #1 and #2 preseason starters? Trading for bullpen assets in a general sense has proven to be a waste over time. The gap between your average good reliever and your flailing one is roughly a half win. Your starting gap could be triple that, or more, depending on innings. Robert Suarez - 0.5 WAR Yuki Matsui - 0.0 WAR "We could do better" doesn't mean a whole lot.
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 5, 2024 15:40:25 GMT -8
There's some individuals who aren't cutting it. We could do better. In relation to being down both your #1 and #2 preseason starters? Trading for bullpen assets in a general sense has proven to be a waste over time. The gap between your average good reliever and your flailing one is roughly a half win. Your starting gap could be triple that, or more, depending on innings. Robert Suarez - 0.5 WAR Yuki Matsui - 0.0 WAR "We could do better" doesn't mean a whole lot. Like I said, if either Darvish or Musgrove come back, we should be good. If they both come back, great. Mazur deserves another start, and maybe more. If a good reliever presents itself first, then get that and vice versa.
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Post by sdsuball on Jun 5, 2024 21:03:23 GMT -8
There's some individuals who aren't cutting it. We could do better. In relation to being down both your #1 and #2 preseason starters? Trading for bullpen assets in a general sense has proven to be a waste over time. The gap between your average good reliever and your flailing one is roughly a half win. Your starting gap could be triple that, or more, depending on innings. Robert Suarez - 0.5 WAR Yuki Matsui - 0.0 WAR "We could do better" doesn't mean a whole lot. WAR is not an accurate measure of the value of bullpen arms, it consistently undervalues relievers and their ability to win games for teams in high leverage spots. To your point however, we have really good high leverage guys, and we do need a starter more then a reliever right now.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 5, 2024 21:22:15 GMT -8
In relation to being down both your #1 and #2 preseason starters? Trading for bullpen assets in a general sense has proven to be a waste over time. The gap between your average good reliever and your flailing one is roughly a half win. Your starting gap could be triple that, or more, depending on innings. Robert Suarez - 0.5 WAR Yuki Matsui - 0.0 WAR "We could do better" doesn't mean a whole lot. WAR is not an accurate measure of the value of bullpen arms, it consistently undervalues relievers and their ability to win games for teams in high leverage spots. To your point however, we have really good high leverage guys, and we do need a starter more then a reliever right now. The only thing WAR gets wrong with relievers is it overvalues strikeouts and punishes walks.
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Post by docmm on Jun 6, 2024 4:49:12 GMT -8
If it punishes walks then it seems like Matsui's should be at least -42.35
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 6, 2024 7:22:06 GMT -8
If it punishes walks then it seems like Matsui's should be at least -42.35 I should have expanded further, but was caught up in life stuff. It's not specific to relievers, but Matsui has a 59% strand rate, well below league average and a big gap between his ERA and FIP. So it's not just "strikeouts and walks." He gets bumps for home run prevention and for being unlucky with baserunners, too.
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Post by docmm on Jun 6, 2024 8:22:14 GMT -8
If it punishes walks then it seems like Matsui's should be at least -42.35 I should have expanded further, but was caught up in life stuff. It's not specific to relievers, but Matsui has a 59% strand rate, well below league average and a big gap between his ERA and FIP. So it's not just "strikeouts and walks." He gets bumps for home run prevention and for being unlucky with baserunners, too. Is there a stat for % of times you walk the first guy you face in an inning or when you're brought into the game?
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 6, 2024 8:36:34 GMT -8
I should have expanded further, but was caught up in life stuff. It's not specific to relievers, but Matsui has a 59% strand rate, well below league average and a big gap between his ERA and FIP. So it's not just "strikeouts and walks." He gets bumps for home run prevention and for being unlucky with baserunners, too. Is there a stat for % of times you walk the first guy you face in an inning or when you're brought into the game? There's a stat for everything, but that still funnels into strand rate. League average yearly tends to be somewhere between 70-72%. This isn't meant to be a diatribe on Matsui, for what it's worth. He's been misused by the manager pretty regularly.
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Post by sdsuball on Jun 6, 2024 9:11:04 GMT -8
If it punishes walks then it seems like Matsui's should be at least -42.35 I should have expanded further, but was caught up in life stuff. It's not specific to relievers, but Matsui has a 59% strand rate, well below league average and a big gap between his ERA and FIP. So it's not just "strikeouts and walks." He gets bumps for home run prevention and for being unlucky with baserunners, too. "As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86)." "Like with team wins and WAR wins, the correlation between Pythagorean wins and WAR wins was strong in 2018. In fact, with an R-squared value of 0.95. This means that our model (or line of best fit) is able to explain about 95 percent of the variability in our data set; for team wins alone, our model could only explain about 85 percent of the variability." "...for each WAR win that a team gains, it is slightly more likely that they are gaining a Pythagorean win than a true win, at least according to the data from 2018." www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-winsMy argument is that high leverage relievers are being undervalued by WAR. This is why you see the delta between Pythagorean wins and actual wins. Not all runs are created equally. If all runs were equally valuable, the Padres would have been in the playoffs last year. Winning and losing matters. If a team lost every game 5-4 (throughout the entire season), their total team WAR should be around 24 (72 win season), but their actual record would be 0-162. You can see it in the salaries that high leverage relievers get on the open market. Teams are paying a high rate per WAR win for high leverage relievers, then they are for position players and starters, in FA.
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Post by azson on Jun 6, 2024 9:15:07 GMT -8
Is there a stat for % of times you walk the first guy you face in an inning or when you're brought into the game? There's a stat for everything, but that still funnels into strand rate. League average yearly tends to be somewhere between 70-72%. This isn't meant to be a diatribe on Matsui, for what it's worth. He's been misused by the manager pretty regularly.Not a coincidence that this losing streak started with Shildt's BP/Matsui mismanagement in KC.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 6, 2024 9:18:56 GMT -8
I should have expanded further, but was caught up in life stuff. It's not specific to relievers, but Matsui has a 59% strand rate, well below league average and a big gap between his ERA and FIP. So it's not just "strikeouts and walks." He gets bumps for home run prevention and for being unlucky with baserunners, too. "As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86)." "Like with team wins and WAR wins, the correlation between Pythagorean wins and WAR wins was strong in 2018. In fact, with an R-squared value of 0.95. This means that our model (or line of best fit) is able to explain about 95 percent of the variability in our data set; for team wins alone, our model could only explain about 85 percent of the variability." "...for each WAR win that a team gains, it is slightly more likely that they are gaining a Pythagorean win than a true win, at least according to the data from 2018." www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-winsMy argument is that high leverage relievers are being undervalued by WAR. This is why you see the delta between Pythagorean wins and actual wins. Not all runs are created equally. If all runs were equally valuable, the Padres would have been in the playoffs last year. Winning and losing matters. If a team lost every game 5-4 (throughout the entire season), their total team WAR should be around 24 (72 win season), but their actual record would be 0-162. You can see it in the salaries that high leverage relievers get on the open market. Teams are paying a high rate per WAR win for high leverage relievers, then they are for position players and starters, in FA. I don't agree with the entire premise, since the top of the market is the top of the market and there's limited assets available. It's an innings thing, you're not going to get 6 or 7 WAR relievers because they generally throw 60-70 innings. I don't think they undervalued categorically because your middle relief generic inserted player is the easiest asset to replace on a macro scale.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 6, 2024 9:21:24 GMT -8
There's a stat for everything, but that still funnels into strand rate. League average yearly tends to be somewhere between 70-72%. This isn't meant to be a diatribe on Matsui, for what it's worth. He's been misused by the manager pretty regularly.Not a coincidence that this losing streak started with Shildt's BP/Matsui mismanagement in KC. Early in the season, he was pushing all the right buttons with regards to having the instincts to pull guys at the right times. Lately, it's been an utter mess. Matsui has reverse splits, but he's used regularly to face a lefty to start his outings. Putting him back into a high leverage spot immediately after the implosion where you could see he was visibly shaken is just malpractice.
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Post by sdsuball on Jun 6, 2024 17:55:47 GMT -8
"As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86)." "Like with team wins and WAR wins, the correlation between Pythagorean wins and WAR wins was strong in 2018. In fact, with an R-squared value of 0.95. This means that our model (or line of best fit) is able to explain about 95 percent of the variability in our data set; for team wins alone, our model could only explain about 85 percent of the variability." "...for each WAR win that a team gains, it is slightly more likely that they are gaining a Pythagorean win than a true win, at least according to the data from 2018." www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-winsMy argument is that high leverage relievers are being undervalued by WAR. This is why you see the delta between Pythagorean wins and actual wins. Not all runs are created equally. If all runs were equally valuable, the Padres would have been in the playoffs last year. Winning and losing matters. If a team lost every game 5-4 (throughout the entire season), their total team WAR should be around 24 (72 win season), but their actual record would be 0-162. You can see it in the salaries that high leverage relievers get on the open market. Teams are paying a high rate per WAR win for high leverage relievers, then they are for position players and starters, in FA. I don't agree with the entire premise, since the top of the market is the top of the market and there's limited assets available. It's an innings thing, you're not going to get 6 or 7 WAR relievers because they generally throw 60-70 innings. I don't think they undervalued categorically because your middle relief generic inserted player is the easiest asset to replace on a macro scale. Agreed, average middle inning guys are not undervalued. Yes they are very easy to replace, given that lots of potential starters can't stay healthy as prospects and end up as relievers.
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Post by junior on Jun 15, 2024 14:25:47 GMT -8
Pretty lucky today that his six BBs didn't come back to haunt him. Seemed to run out of gas just before he was pulled. Not as bad a performance as he had vs Arizona, and with no offensive support - again. But as all pitchers know, it's about location. He will get it, but he doesn't have it mastered yet, and the longer it takes, the more games he'll be out of before he even makes it halfway through.
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 16, 2024 17:39:47 GMT -8
Pretty lucky today that his six BBs didn't come back to haunt him. Seemed to run out of gas just before he was pulled. Not as bad a performance as he had vs Arizona, and with no offensive support - again. But as all pitchers know, it's about location. He will get it, but he doesn't have it mastered yet, and the longer it takes, the more games he'll be out of before he even makes it halfway through. Yeah, if you're young like Mazur and you make some mistake pitches, you're nervous, that's going to happen. But, if you can't throw strikes and you're walking a lot of people, your Managers confidence in you dwindles. He's filling a void right now, but he needs to throw strikes that are located.
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