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Post by docmm on Jun 22, 2024 19:31:06 GMT -8
Pittsburgh's Skenes might be hard to beat for ROY. He's only started 7 games so far but is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and .99 Whps. He's also struck out 12.1 batters per 9 innings. But because his fastball averages more than 100 mph, he's the darling of sportswriters.
Merrill is a grinder but can do everything pretty well. If he keeps everything up and hits over 20 HRs, I think he wins because he's an everyday player. That is, unless Skenes goes all Doc-Gooden on us.
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 22, 2024 19:55:44 GMT -8
Pittsburgh's Skenes might be hard to beat for ROY. He's only started 7 games so far but is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and .99 Whps. He's also struck out 12.1 batters per 9 innings. But because his fastball averages more than 100 mph, he's the darling of sportswriters. Merrill is a grinder but can do everything pretty well. If he keeps everything up and hits over 20 HRs, I think he wins because he's an everyday player. That is, unless Skenes goes all Doc-Gooden on us. Yeah, at this point in time the front runners are Merrill and Skenes. It didn't hurt that Merrill had a GREAT day on National TV. Skenes is the hyped one, but you're right, Merrill's the everyday player who can do it all and if the Padres have a good year when all is said and done, I like his chances. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 22, 2024 20:06:53 GMT -8
Merrill still has to leapfrog multiple other players. We have a long way to go. Winning helps.
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Post by docmm on Jun 23, 2024 5:42:21 GMT -8
Merrill still has to leapfrog multiple other players. We have a long way to go. Winning helps. Not that many actually. Imanaga just got lit up big on Friday: 3 innings 10 ER(!) 11 hits and 1 walk. His ERA went from 1.89 to 2.96 and whps from .98 to 1.10. It's the 2nd time in his last 5 starts he's given up at least 7 earned runs. Yamamoto has a strained right rotator cuff which puts him out to probably late July or even later. Jared Jones has been good but he might split the Pittsburgh pitcher vote some with Skenes. Merrill was behind a couple other every-day guys a few weeks ago in the ROY betting odds: Ortiz, Pages, Busch and Winn. But he's moved past them now. Merrill doesn't have to leapfrog too many guys any more, he just needs to keep things going. Fox Sports updated their NL ROY odds 6/22: -125 Skenes +230 Imanaga +350 Merrill +1100 Ortiz +1500 Jones And Fanduel, MGM and Ceasar's sports books all have Merrill ahead of Imanaga now. Looks like it's down to three guys for a while. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 23, 2024 6:54:32 GMT -8
Merrill still has to leapfrog multiple other players. We have a long way to go. Winning helps. Not that many actually. Imanaga just got lit up big on Friday: 3 innings 10 ER(!) 11 hits and 1 walk. His ERA went from 1.89 to 2.96 and whps from .98 to 1.10. It's the 2nd time in his last 5 starts he's given up at least 7 earned runs. Yamamoto has a strained right rotator cuff which puts him out to probably late July or even later. Jared Jones has been good but he might split the Pittsburgh pitcher vote some with Skenes. Merrill was behind a couple other every-day guys a few weeks ago in the ROY betting odds: Ortiz, Pages, Busch and Winn. But he's moved past them now. Merrill doesn't have to leapfrog too many guys any more, he just needs to keep things going. Fox Sports updated their NL ROY odds 6/22: -125 Skenes +230 Imanaga +350 Merrill +1100 Ortiz +1500 Jones And Fanduel, MGM and Ceasar's sports books all have Merrill ahead of Imanaga now. Looks like it's down to three guys for a while. Yes, that's what I was referring to, as well. Imanaga got smoked the other day, so I put Merrill ahead of him at the moment. Skenes the favorite as of now. Of course, all of this is fluid. It's going to be fun to watch. |
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Post by docmm on Jun 23, 2024 11:42:17 GMT -8
It's always nice to have a dog in the ROY fight, especially when highly-paid vets are struggling.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 23, 2024 12:04:09 GMT -8
It's always nice to have a dog in the ROY fight, especially when highly-paid vets are struggling. We have 81 games to go. Things can and will change rapidly. |
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Post by junior on Jun 23, 2024 12:42:28 GMT -8
King needs to abdicate the throne. He gots nuthin' today. NUTHIN! Don't get excited … he's still K'd all six outs so far - LOL - unfortunately, the strikes they aren't missing on have cost five runs in-between all of the K's.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 23, 2024 12:52:09 GMT -8
King needs to abdicate the throne. He gots nuthin' today. NUTHIN! Don't get excited … he's still K'd all six outs so far - LOL - unfortunately, the strikes they aren't missing on have cost five runs in-between all of the K's. Hard to blame him. The first ball has to be caught, the two run single was 66.5 off the bat. Bad luck. |
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Post by junior on Jun 23, 2024 13:02:13 GMT -8
Luck is an interesting concept. Quantifiable as "good" or "bad"? On the same event, one person's "Good Luck" can be someone else's "Bad Luck" …
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Post by junior on Jun 23, 2024 14:16:53 GMT -8
Offense returned to the Witness Protection Program today. How long will they be MIA this time?
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 23, 2024 15:02:52 GMT -8
Luck is an interesting concept. Quantifiable as "good" or "bad"? On the same event, one person's "Good Luck" can be someone else's "Bad Luck" … Same concept John talks about ad nauseum, hitting balls right at defenders. Pitchers don't have complete control of what happens when the ball leaves their hand. Thought King threw the ball better than the line score will indicate. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 23, 2024 16:11:14 GMT -8
Luck is an interesting concept. Quantifiable as "good" or "bad"? On the same event, one person's "Good Luck" can be someone else's "Bad Luck" … Same concept John talks about ad nauseum, hitting balls right at defenders. Pitchers don't have complete control of what happens when the ball leaves their hand. Thought King threw the ball better than the line score will indicate. I talk about it because it's a real thing, especially with Merrill I've noticed. I thought King pitched better than the 5 runs he let up. He threw the better than his line stats. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 23, 2024 16:24:35 GMT -8
Same concept John talks about ad nauseum, hitting balls right at defenders. Pitchers don't have complete control of what happens when the ball leaves their hand. Thought King threw the ball better than the line score will indicate. I talk about it because it's a real thing, especially with Merrill I've noticed. I thought King pitched better than the 5 runs he let up. He threw the better than his line stats. It's exaggerated, though. Hitting a ball at a defender at 85 MPH isn't bad luck, it's mediocre contact. His average exit velo is 89.8, slightly above average. If he was smashing balls at 100 at the shortstop, that's a different story. His flyout today at 394 and 101 EV is a good example. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 23, 2024 17:04:18 GMT -8
I talk about it because it's a real thing, especially with Merrill I've noticed. I thought King pitched better than the 5 runs he let up. He threw the better than his line stats. It's exaggerated, though. Hitting a ball at a defender at 85 MPH isn't bad luck, it's mediocre contact. His average exit velo is 89.8, slightly above average. If he was smashing balls at 100 at the shortstop, that's a different story. His flyout today at 394 and 101 EV is a good example. Not everything is about how hard a ball is hit. Ask Arraez and if TG were alive, he'd tell you the same thing, amongst many others. Bat control and placement are a thing. My eyes don't deceive me, the announcers, or a host of other people when they talk about Merrill getting robbed, or hitting a liner right at somebody, a lot. I certainly know the difference between, for example, a soft liner, so to speak, or a weak grounder, etc.... |
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Post by aardvark on Jun 23, 2024 20:20:58 GMT -8
It's exaggerated, though. Hitting a ball at a defender at 85 MPH isn't bad luck, it's mediocre contact. His average exit velo is 89.8, slightly above average. If he was smashing balls at 100 at the shortstop, that's a different story. His flyout today at 394 and 101 EV is a good example. Not everything is about how hard a ball is hit. Ask Arraez and if TG were alive, he'd tell you the same thing, amongst many others. Bat control and placement are a thing. My eyes don't deceive me, the announcers or a host of other people when they talk about Merrill getting robbed, or hitting a liner right at somebody, a lot. I certainly know the difference between, for example, a soft liner, so to speak, or a weak grounder, etc.... Higashioka's triple the other night. If you put the bat on the ball, things can happen. |
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Post by johneaztec on Jun 23, 2024 20:27:19 GMT -8
Not everything is about how hard a ball is hit. Ask Arraez and if TG were alive, he'd tell you the same thing, amongst many others. Bat control and placement are a thing. My eyes don't deceive me, the announcers or a host of other people when they talk about Merrill getting robbed, or hitting a liner right at somebody, a lot. I certainly know the difference between, for example, a soft liner, so to speak, or a weak grounder, etc.... Higashioka's triple the other night. If you put the bat on the ball, things can happen. Exactly. Putting the bat on the ball can make things happen. Something Ryan likes to discount, or thinks is overrated. Hogwash. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 23, 2024 20:56:03 GMT -8
It's exaggerated, though. Hitting a ball at a defender at 85 MPH isn't bad luck, it's mediocre contact. His average exit velo is 89.8, slightly above average. If he was smashing balls at 100 at the shortstop, that's a different story. His flyout today at 394 and 101 EV is a good example. Not everything is about how hard a ball is hit. Ask Arraez and if TG were alive, he'd tell you the same thing, amongst many others. Bat control and placement are a thing. My eyes don't deceive me, the announcers, or a host of other people when they talk about Merrill getting robbed, or hitting a liner right at somebody, a lot. I certainly know the difference between, for example, a soft liner, so to speak, or a weak grounder, etc.... They are a thing, but it's a different thing entirely. Hitting the ball hard matters more than virtually anything in terms of sustainability. Arraez is a good example of what you don't want at Petco, a lefty with no power, completely reliant on ball placement and barrel control. He's running a 62 wRC+ at Petco with a .538 OPS since the trade. On the road, he's at 164, with an OPS nearly 400 points higher. Since he doesn't hit the ball hard, he's significantly more predisposed to park conditions, with Petco having the second smallest outfield in the majors. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 23, 2024 20:59:10 GMT -8
Not everything is about how hard a ball is hit. Ask Arraez and if TG were alive, he'd tell you the same thing, amongst many others. Bat control and placement are a thing. My eyes don't deceive me, the announcers or a host of other people when they talk about Merrill getting robbed, or hitting a liner right at somebody, a lot. I certainly know the difference between, for example, a soft liner, so to speak, or a weak grounder, etc.... Higashioka's triple the other night. If you put the bat on the ball, things can happen. A different concept entirely, though. That's BABIP variance and random luck, similar to the Brewers second inning today. Only one ball in the entire inning would be classified as hard hit, and that was the last single of the inning by Black. It's much better to hit the ball hard in the air than it is to hit it softly in the air, just like it's much better to hit it hard in the air versus hard on the ground. Long-term, big picture, hitting the ball hard is good. That's why the top of the exit velocity leaderboard has names like Soto, Judge, Ohtani, Tatis, etc. |
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Post by aardvark on Jun 24, 2024 9:56:46 GMT -8
Higashioka's triple the other night. If you put the bat on the ball, things can happen. A different concept entirely, though. That's BABIP variance and random luck, similar to the Brewers second inning today. Only one ball in the entire inning would be classified as hard hit, and that was the last single of the inning by Black. It's much better to hit the ball hard in the air than it is to hit it softly in the air, just like it's much better to hit it hard in the air versus hard on the ground. Long-term, big picture, hitting the ball hard is good. That's why the top of the exit velocity leaderboard has names like Soto, Judge, Ohtani, Tatis, etc. Yes, hitting the ball hard is good. But teams scout everyone--know their hitting tendencies--and place their fielders accordingly (at least where allowed to by the MLB rulebook). Bloop hits find a way in, while screaming line drives find fielders. It's part of the game. It happens. It's interesting that in a different post, you said that Petco has the 2nd smallest outfield. It's also interesting, to me at least, that the Padres don't have more outfield dimensions shown in different parts of the park. It's always been an asymmetrical park, but as the club have changed the dimensions over 21 years of playing there, the dimensions just aren't shown in that many places. |
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