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Post by aardvark on Aug 1, 2022 9:56:10 GMT -8
So is Rogers, if we are being fair. But you get an extra year of control. Yeah but at an estimated $15M in arbitration next year. This deal does not help us from a salary standpoint, and its (about) salary neutral this year. This deal is terrible. We have bullpen help coming and Rodgers was a solid reliever. Not a good closer, but so what? Garcia/Pomeranz.. Not to mention, we don't need a closer right now - we need bats. And we need salary relief so that we can resign more of our good players, like Clevinger. Not to mention Hader has an ERA in the 4's this year. He's a good closer but why do we have to have Ruiz in this deal?? I would have loved to trade Grisham for value and use Ruiz as a cheap CF, with the option to put Abrams in CF. God I hate this deal. We give up a cheap controllable asset in Ruiz (important when you are trying to land Soto, are resigning Musgrove, etc), and we give them 3 pitchers for an upgrade at reliever? Preller isn't seeing the bigger picture - this deal is awful. Myers is gone after this season. Now, if Preller can just unload Hosmer AND his contract, I'll take back some of the things I've said about him. Frankly, I really like the Hader deal.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 1, 2022 10:00:51 GMT -8
So is Rogers, if we are being fair. But you get an extra year of control. Yeah but at an estimated $15M in arbitration next year. This deal does not help us from a salary standpoint, and its (about) salary neutral this year. This deal is terrible. We have bullpen help coming and Rodgers was a solid reliever. Not a good closer, but so what? Garcia/Pomeranz.. Not to mention, we don't need a closer right now - we need bats. And we need salary relief so that we can resign more of our good players, like Clevinger. Not to mention Hader has an ERA in the 4's this year. He's a good closer but why do we have to have Ruiz in this deal?? I would have loved to trade Grisham for value and use Ruiz as a cheap CF, with the option to put Abrams in CF. God I hate this deal. We give up a cheap controllable asset in Ruiz (important when you are trying to land Soto, are resigning Musgrove, etc), and we give them 3 pitchers for an upgrade at reliever? Preller isn't seeing the bigger picture - this deal is awful. This is a horrendous take.
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Post by junior on Aug 1, 2022 10:02:07 GMT -8
Something must've been up (or down) with Rogers. He got shelved after that last blown save. Three games for him with opportunities to come in for an inning or a batter or two, and he just sat there in the BP talking to his former teammates from Minnesota in the upper BP. Seemed a bit strange to me. OK, you're not closing right now, but you're not pitching at all? Not even getting back up on the horse for another ride? Strange.
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Post by aardvark on Aug 1, 2022 10:05:00 GMT -8
Something must've been up (or down) with Rogers. He got shelved after that last blown save. Three games for him with opportunities to come in for an inning or a batter or two, and he just sat there in the BP talking to his former teammates from Minnesota in the upper BP. Seemed a bit strange to me. OK, you're not closing right now, but you're not pitching at all? Not even getting back up on the horse for another ride? Strange. Rogers hasn't pitched since July 27th. He's gone longer stretches than that already this season.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 1, 2022 10:09:45 GMT -8
Yeah but at an estimated $15M in arbitration next year. This deal does not help us from a salary standpoint, and its (about) salary neutral this year. This deal is terrible. We have bullpen help coming and Rodgers was a solid reliever. Not a good closer, but so what? Garcia/Pomeranz.. Not to mention, we don't need a closer right now - we need bats. And we need salary relief so that we can resign more of our good players, like Clevinger. Not to mention Hader has an ERA in the 4's this year. He's a good closer but why do we have to have Ruiz in this deal?? I would have loved to trade Grisham for value and use Ruiz as a cheap CF, with the option to put Abrams in CF. God I hate this deal. We give up a cheap controllable asset in Ruiz (important when you are trying to land Soto, are resigning Musgrove, etc), and we give them 3 pitchers for an upgrade at reliever? Preller isn't seeing the bigger picture - this deal is awful. This is a horrendous take. It's all about salary and upgrading at a position of need. I would like this trade (take Ruiz out of it, just the 3 pitchers on our side) if it netted Alex Lange for example. 3.33 career ERA as a reliever, in his second year in the majors, controllable through 2026. Then we would be shedding salary while also getting a solid reliever that doesn't break the bank, allowing us to have the payroll to go get/resign a star in FA.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 1, 2022 10:19:57 GMT -8
This is a horrendous take. It's all about salary and upgrading at a position of need. I would like this trade (take Ruiz out of it, just the 3 pitchers on our side) if it netted Alex Lange for example. 3.33 career ERA as a reliever, in his second year in the majors, controllable through 2026. Then we would be shedding salary while also getting a solid reliever that doesn't break the bank, allowing us to have the payroll to go get/resign a star in FA. It's not about salary (which is essentially neutral this season) - Lamet was due a raise next season and his value is extremely low at the moment. Ruiz is not going to hit enough to be a regular contributor. Gasser is the real piece here. Hader is the literal best closer in baseball the last two seasons. He's under control (not contract) for next year. You got the best closer available and somehow you think Alex Lange is more valuable?
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 1, 2022 10:29:38 GMT -8
It's all about salary and upgrading at a position of need. I would like this trade (take Ruiz out of it, just the 3 pitchers on our side) if it netted Alex Lange for example. 3.33 career ERA as a reliever, in his second year in the majors, controllable through 2026. Then we would be shedding salary while also getting a solid reliever that doesn't break the bank, allowing us to have the payroll to go get/resign a star in FA. It's not about salary (which is essentially neutral this season) - Lamet was due a raise next season and his value is extremely low at the moment. Ruiz is not going to hit enough to be a regular contributor. Gasser is the real piece here. Hader is the literal best closer in baseball the last two seasons. He's under control (not contract) for next year. You got the best closer available and somehow you think Alex Lange is more valuable? Hader was the best closer in baseball last year. He's not that this year. ERA in the 4's... I agree that we (had to) trade Lamet, in some deal this year. This deal was as good as any to do it in, no problem there. If you look at the two players without looking at salary, Hader is more valuable. But what I see the Padres needing most is a solid, cheap and controllable reliever. Alex Lange is a solid player, 30th pick overall in the 2017 draft. He's controllable for this year and four more years. He's cheap for 2022, 2023,2024 until he hits arbitration in 2025. Coincidently or not, he's cheap for the three years that we could have Soto. Lange has a 3.3 ERA over two years, 75 innings in the majors. Yeah I like him a lot, and I do think that he's a more valuable trade asset (even though Hader is a more valuable player).
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 1, 2022 10:38:27 GMT -8
It's not about salary (which is essentially neutral this season) - Lamet was due a raise next season and his value is extremely low at the moment. Ruiz is not going to hit enough to be a regular contributor. Gasser is the real piece here. Hader is the literal best closer in baseball the last two seasons. He's under control (not contract) for next year. You got the best closer available and somehow you think Alex Lange is more valuable? Hader was the best closer in baseball last year. He's not that this year. ERA in the 4's... I agree that we (had to) trade Lamet, in some deal this year. This deal was as good as any to do it in, no problem there. If you look at the two players without looking at salary, Hader is more valuable. But what I see the Padres needing most is a solid, cheap and controllable reliever. Alex Lange is a solid player, 30th pick overall in the 2017 draft. He's controllable for this year and four more years. He's cheap for 2022, 2023,2024 until he hits arbitration in 2025. Coincidently or not, he's cheap for the three years that we could have Soto. Lange has a 3.3 ERA over two years, 75 innings in the majors. Yeah I like him a lot, and I do think that he's a more valuable trade asset (even though Hader is a more valuable player). This is where skimming surface numbers doesn't tell you the truth. In two appearances earlier last month, he gave up nine runs in a third of an inning. Removing one out drops his ERA to 2.41. Didn't allow a single run until June 7th. Striking out nearly 18/9. Studied the numbers at length last week: He's giving up nearly 5 home runs/9. That rate isn't going to hold, especially switching divisions and ballparks. The prices for relievers are insane right now. The Yankees traded one of their top pitching prospects for five years of a sidearm guy in Effross. By the way, they aren't done. Hader is the first domino to fall. It's not a move done in isolation, nor is it the end all to next year's salary concerns. They are heavily, heavily involved with more than a dozen players right now.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 1, 2022 10:53:31 GMT -8
Hader was the best closer in baseball last year. He's not that this year. ERA in the 4's... I agree that we (had to) trade Lamet, in some deal this year. This deal was as good as any to do it in, no problem there. If you look at the two players without looking at salary, Hader is more valuable. But what I see the Padres needing most is a solid, cheap and controllable reliever. Alex Lange is a solid player, 30th pick overall in the 2017 draft. He's controllable for this year and four more years. He's cheap for 2022, 2023,2024 until he hits arbitration in 2025. Coincidently or not, he's cheap for the three years that we could have Soto. Lange has a 3.3 ERA over two years, 75 innings in the majors. Yeah I like him a lot, and I do think that he's a more valuable trade asset (even though Hader is a more valuable player). This is where skimming surface numbers doesn't tell you the truth. In two appearances earlier last month, he gave up nine runs in a third of an inning. Removing one out drops his ERA to 2.41. Didn't allow a single run until June 7th. Striking out nearly 18/9. Studied the numbers at length last week: He's giving up nearly 5 home runs/9. That rate isn't going to hold, especially switching divisions and ballparks. The prices for relievers are insane right now. The Yankees traded one of their top pitching prospects for five years of a sidearm guy in Effross. By the way, they aren't done. Hader is the first domino to fall. It's not a move done in isolation, nor is it the end all to next year's salary concerns. They are heavily, heavily involved with more than a dozen players right now. Okay, that's a fair point about Hader. But I still would rather have Lange + resign Clevinger, then have Hader. $15M is an insane amount to pay for a very good reliever.. They just aren't pitching that many innings per year! We are going to have to let a cy young caliber pitcher in Clevinger walk in FA because of this trade... that's why I hate it. And FWIW, Lange's numbers are pretty good. 1.3 career WHIP, only given up 7 HR's in 75 career innings pitched. 146 ERA+ this year...
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 1, 2022 10:55:46 GMT -8
This is where skimming surface numbers doesn't tell you the truth. In two appearances earlier last month, he gave up nine runs in a third of an inning. Removing one out drops his ERA to 2.41. Didn't allow a single run until June 7th. Striking out nearly 18/9. Studied the numbers at length last week: He's giving up nearly 5 home runs/9. That rate isn't going to hold, especially switching divisions and ballparks. The prices for relievers are insane right now. The Yankees traded one of their top pitching prospects for five years of a sidearm guy in Effross. By the way, they aren't done. Hader is the first domino to fall. It's not a move done in isolation, nor is it the end all to next year's salary concerns. They are heavily, heavily involved with more than a dozen players right now. Okay, that's a fair point about Hader. But I still would rather have Lange + resign Clevinger, then have Hader. $15M is an insane amount to pay for a very good reliever.. They just aren't pitching that many innings per year! We are going to have to let a cy young caliber pitcher in Clevinger walk in FA because of this trade... that's why I hate it. The going rate for closers has changed dramatically. This isn't the 90's anymore. Getting Hader has no bearing on whether they can re-sign Clevinger, either. They can easily do both.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 1, 2022 10:56:46 GMT -8
Okay, that's a fair point about Hader. But I still would rather have Lange + resign Clevinger, then have Hader. $15M is an insane amount to pay for a very good reliever.. They just aren't pitching that many innings per year! We are going to have to let a cy young caliber pitcher in Clevinger walk in FA because of this trade... that's why I hate it. The going rate for closers has changed dramatically. This isn't the 90's anymore. Getting Hader has no bearing on whether they can re-sign Clevinger, either. They can easily do both. So they are out of the market for Soto then?
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 1, 2022 11:00:18 GMT -8
The going rate for closers has changed dramatically. This isn't the 90's anymore. Getting Hader has no bearing on whether they can re-sign Clevinger, either. They can easily do both. So they are out of the market for Soto then? Not at all.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 1, 2022 11:04:48 GMT -8
So they are out of the market for Soto then? Not at all. Has AJ Preller been given a black check by the owners for the team's payroll over the next few seasons? Is Hosmer departing? Lol I better grab my popcorn...
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 1, 2022 11:06:16 GMT -8
Has AJ Preller been given a black check by the owners for the team's payroll over the next few seasons? Is Hosmer departing? Lol I better grab my popcorn... You don't trade for a closer when you know you need offense. Seidler has always said they'd go over the tax for the right circumstance and player. They actually saved about $680,000 in the Hader deal. I expect at least one more seismic move.
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Post by aardvark on Aug 1, 2022 11:12:45 GMT -8
Hader was the best closer in baseball last year. He's not that this year. ERA in the 4's... I agree that we (had to) trade Lamet, in some deal this year. This deal was as good as any to do it in, no problem there. If you look at the two players without looking at salary, Hader is more valuable. But what I see the Padres needing most is a solid, cheap and controllable reliever. Alex Lange is a solid player, 30th pick overall in the 2017 draft. He's controllable for this year and four more years. He's cheap for 2022, 2023,2024 until he hits arbitration in 2025. Coincidently or not, he's cheap for the three years that we could have Soto. Lange has a 3.3 ERA over two years, 75 innings in the majors. Yeah I like him a lot, and I do think that he's a more valuable trade asset (even though Hader is a more valuable player). This is where skimming surface numbers doesn't tell you the truth. In two appearances earlier last month, he gave up nine runs in a third of an inning. Removing one out drops his ERA to 2.41. Didn't allow a single run until June 7th. Striking out nearly 18/9. Studied the numbers at length last week: He's giving up nearly 5 home runs/9. That rate isn't going to hold, especially switching divisions and ballparks. The prices for relievers are insane right now. The Yankees traded one of their top pitching prospects for five years of a sidearm guy in Effross. By the way, they aren't done. Hader is the first domino to fall. It's not a move done in isolation, nor is it the end all to next year's salary concerns. They are heavily, heavily involved with more than a dozen players right now. Let's hope your last paragraph come true, as I don't want the Padres to repeat what happened last season, when they got Frazier (a head-scratcher to me if there ever was one) and then pretty much got stuck with him after other trades fell apart for whatever reason.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 1, 2022 11:14:11 GMT -8
This is where skimming surface numbers doesn't tell you the truth. In two appearances earlier last month, he gave up nine runs in a third of an inning. Removing one out drops his ERA to 2.41. Didn't allow a single run until June 7th. Striking out nearly 18/9. Studied the numbers at length last week: He's giving up nearly 5 home runs/9. That rate isn't going to hold, especially switching divisions and ballparks. The prices for relievers are insane right now. The Yankees traded one of their top pitching prospects for five years of a sidearm guy in Effross. By the way, they aren't done. Hader is the first domino to fall. It's not a move done in isolation, nor is it the end all to next year's salary concerns. They are heavily, heavily involved with more than a dozen players right now. Let's hope your last paragraph come true, as I don't want the Padres to repeat what happened last season, when they got Frazier (a head-scratcher to me if there ever was one) and then pretty much got stuck with him after other trades fell apart for whatever reason. Prices.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 1, 2022 11:14:29 GMT -8
The Padres did not move any significant players that would be in the Soto trade. The Hader trade has no bearing on the Soto trade.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 1, 2022 11:21:08 GMT -8
This is where skimming surface numbers doesn't tell you the truth. In two appearances earlier last month, he gave up nine runs in a third of an inning. Removing one out drops his ERA to 2.41. Didn't allow a single run until June 7th. Striking out nearly 18/9. Studied the numbers at length last week: He's giving up nearly 5 home runs/9. That rate isn't going to hold, especially switching divisions and ballparks. The prices for relievers are insane right now. The Yankees traded one of their top pitching prospects for five years of a sidearm guy in Effross. By the way, they aren't done. Hader is the first domino to fall. It's not a move done in isolation, nor is it the end all to next year's salary concerns. They are heavily, heavily involved with more than a dozen players right now. Let's hope your last paragraph come true, as I don't want the Padres to repeat what happened last season, when they got Frazier (a head-scratcher to me if there ever was one) and then pretty much got stuck with him after other trades fell apart for whatever reason. Agreed.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 1, 2022 11:47:19 GMT -8
Most of the beat writers are assuming there is a need to shed a bad contract and drop some salary. Hosmer was told (allegedly) that he wouldn't be dealt. Hard to justify the cost it would take to dump him.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2022 13:36:39 GMT -8
I just don’t see Hosmer being dealt. No way I’m just throwing in a valuable prospect like Hassell or Wood just to move his contract.
Offer to take on 80% of the remaining, if any desperate team wants it (doubtful) otherwise DFA him. 10 and 5 is vesting.
Sometime in business, you just have to cut your losses.
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