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Post by junior on Sept 22, 2021 14:05:03 GMT -8
Seems almost a foregone conclusion among quite a few pundits by now that Jayce Tingler is going to be on the move come Oct. 4.
So:
I wonder where he'll go?
I wonder who'll they'll dig up to replace him?
Or will they just punt, and can a few of the coaching staff, hoping Tingler can put this season behind him and use it to better the team next season? There really aren't any troublemakers on this team, just a few players that probably aren't worth their inflated contracts. That's not on them, however. Both sides sign a contract. As long as the players act professionally (they do), and support the team to the best of their ability (they do) then this becomes an issue of getting the best of their abilities out of them
Whether or not Tingler's the root cause (I don't think it's all on him by any means) of the Padres 2021 demise, someone's likely to take the fall. Seems likely they won't sacrifice Preller (though I think he jumped the shark with last year's off-season deal-making and is probably looking at his best days as Padres GM in the rear view mirror), so if Tingler's let go, he'll bring in someone else, and that manager will want to bring in his guys.
It would really be interesting to be involved in the ownership decision-making process on this problem. They certainly won't involve Preller if they want him to disappear, too, so that would make it very interesting.
Realistically, no matter what happens, the Padres will take another hit to their credibility with any management changes, but to ignore the necessity of making them would be even worse. They had such a high and positive level of visibility in the late spring. That first series with the Dodgers, ESPN's nightly attention, Manny and Fernando watch, Fernando's cover appearance, this team was all but destined for greatness. (and perhaps it still can be… but not without some significant changes)
… by fall, they have reached such a level of irrelevance that will take lots of work to get perceptions turned around. Even then, this season will always be brought up - just like last night's bad fish dinner…
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Post by aardvark on Sept 22, 2021 14:45:06 GMT -8
Seems almost a foregone conclusion among quite a few pundits by now that Jayce Tingler is going to be on the move come Oct. 4. So: I wonder where he'll go? I wonder who'll they'll dig up to replace him? Or will they just punt, and can a few of the coaching staff, hoping Tingler can put this season behind him and use it to better the team next season? There really aren't any troublemakers on this team, just a few players that probably aren't worth their inflated contracts. That's not on them, however. Both sides sign a contract. As long as the players act professionally (they do), and support the team to the best of their ability (they do) then this becomes an issue of getting the best of their abilities out of themWhether or not Tingler's the root cause (I don't think it's all on him by any means) of the Padres 2021 demise, someone's likely to take the fall. Seems likely they won't sacrifice Preller (though I think he jumped the shark with last year's off-season deal-making and is probably looking at his best days as Padres GM in the rear view mirror), so if Tingler's let go, he'll bring in someone else, and that manager will want to bring in his guys. It would really be interesting to be involved in the ownership decision-making process on this problem. They certainly won't involve Preller if they want him to disappear, too, so that would make it very interesting. Realistically, no matter what happens, the Padres will take another hit to their credibility with any management changes, but to ignore the necessity of making them would be even worse. They had such a high and positive level of visibility in the late spring. That first series with the Dodgers, ESPN's nightly attention, Manny and Fernando watch, Fernando's cover appearance, this team was all but destined for greatness. (and perhaps it still can be… but not without some significant changes)… by fall, they have reached such a level of irrelevance that will take lots of work to get perceptions turned around. Even then, this season will always be brought up - just like last night's bad fish dinner… If Tingler is let go, does Preller go back to the Rangers of the past and bring in Ron Washington to manage the Padres? Does he go for someone else with previous managerial experience? Does he bring in another fresh face?
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Post by johneaztec on Sept 22, 2021 14:50:26 GMT -8
I say they bring in aztecryan. Dude's got all the answers.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 22, 2021 16:57:43 GMT -8
I say they bring in aztecryan. Dude's got all the answers. Flattered. Nobody has all the answers, but some have more than others. Firing Tingler doesn't do much. Systemic issues in the organization on a number of fronts need to be addressed to amount to much of anything. On the MLB side, the Padres complete a trifecta you don't want. They hit the ball on the ground at a 46% rate, top five in baseball. They don't hit line drives, bottom ten in that category. And they hit infield flies at over a 12% clip, worst in baseball. On the minor league side, injuries and underperformance coming out of the pandemic have really, really hurt. Some notables that have stalled out in development: Ornelas, Ruiz, Bachar (hurt), Lawson (hurt again), Contreras (hurt)...and there are just very few "popup" type prospects being produced this season from the organization with the lag in data-driven processes.
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Post by azteca on Sept 22, 2021 17:32:11 GMT -8
They need to figure out the injury issues if possible
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Post by junior on Sept 22, 2021 18:06:11 GMT -8
They need to figure out the injury issues if possible "Bad Luck"
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Post by docmm on Sept 22, 2021 19:49:39 GMT -8
Having 10 60-day injury pitchers is way more than bad luck. Some of it is the fact that any little discomfort now warrants a high-tech scan or exam. And there's almost always something tangible that's going to show up with those kinds of scans. Those tangible items then warrant time off or surgery.
To a person with a hammer in their hand, every problem looks like a nail. Surgeons want to do surgery and especially if they're connected to professional athletes. It's great for egos and business.
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Post by junior on Sept 22, 2021 20:22:06 GMT -8
How soon will Ass. Manager Schumaker take over?
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Post by johneaztec on Sept 22, 2021 21:01:02 GMT -8
How soon will Ass. Manager Schumaker take over? Good call. I wouldn't mind that.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 22, 2021 21:14:09 GMT -8
How soon will Ass. Manager Schumaker take over? For 10 games that are irrelevant?
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Post by La Mesa Aztec on Sept 22, 2021 22:20:36 GMT -8
They shouldn't fire Tingler without cleaning house deeper and getting rid of Preller too. How many managers should they let Preller go through? Either the managers aren't getting adequate players or the GM keeps hiring the wrong guy. Both on the GM.
Either clean house totally or let Tingler come back next year.
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Post by sdsuball on Sept 22, 2021 22:26:42 GMT -8
Putting aside the horrible luck that the team has dealt with this year, Tingler has not gotten the most out of his players.
And little things, like batting Tatis first, not giving Kim more playing time, making poor substitutions, add up in the long run.
The team is weak mentally, and Tingler hasn't improved their mental fortitude.
Some of it is luck, but when you keep seeing solo homers, or having the bases loaded no outs but only getting one run, it makes you start to question if the pressure is getting to this group.
We out slugged the Giants in both games, equaled them in hits, and were outscored in both games.
There's a lack of execution by the players, and there is also the idiocy of batting the NL home run leader first in the lineup. I'm sorry but it's idiotic in the National League with the pitcher hitting 9th.
If you want to maximize his at bats, fine hit him 2'nd or 3'rd, but realistically he should always be hitting 2, 3 or 4.
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Post by sdsuball on Sept 22, 2021 22:50:25 GMT -8
The horrible lineups this year (mostly batting Tatis first) probably cost the team a few wins. Tatis has 93 RBI's to Machado's 96, yet Machado has a slugging percentage of .488 to Tatis's .618. Expected RBI's for a hitter by batting order, .495 slugging percentage ( fantasy.fangraphs.com/rbi-and-batting-order/ ): 1: 77.1 2: 82.9 3: 87.3 4: 90.5 The model incorporates the extra RBI's that are generated by getting more at bats in the earlier batting position then the later batting position as well. Not to mention, the author doesn't even separate the AL and NL - meaning that the actual difference in RBI's is higher since the leadoff hitter always is after the pitcher for the first few at bats of the game. And that's for a hitter with a .495 SLG - Tatis is at .618. The differential between batting 1st and 4th with a .618 slugging percentage is going to be even higher. How many RBI's are worth a win?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2021 5:51:19 GMT -8
I think it's fair to ask yourself, is AJ Preller really an elite GM?
1. He's hired three managers now, it's rare for GMS to be able to get to 3 without them also being shown the door 2. I WILL absolutely give him his due for building a farm system 3. We know hes good at throwing hundreds of millions at players -- some we agree with (Machado, Tatis), and others we dont (Hosmer comes to mind), and trading top prospects for veterans. Some of those trades are not looking too good
Boy, would be nice to have Quantrill and Lauer to help out right now. Instead, we're signing guys who were tending bar at Dick's Last Resort two weeks ago.
The farm system is now ranked around 20th at most notable places. Thankfully we still have Hassell and Abrams there. The fact that Preller was willing to move Hassell for Gallo does concern me a bit, how thankful might we be in 2-3 years that Texas said no? In part because of Hosmers need to be involved in the deal.
Lets hope he doesnt panic and move those two for veterans this off season.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2021 5:52:35 GMT -8
If Tingler is fired, it doesn't make any sense to keep Preller and let him pick his 4th manager. Murphy, Green, Tingler.......SMH....
If you term Tingler, you term AJ. Otherwise, keep them both.
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Post by junior on Sept 23, 2021 7:18:06 GMT -8
We will soon know all there will be to know about who's in and who's out. They're still 5 games ahead of Colorado, but the Rockies are playing for Buddy Black right now. So even a 3rd place finish feels like a big question mark this morning. They're not going to suddenly snap out of this 2 month long funk, though. I have a feeling that a sub .500 season will be their fate. I think they'll be lucky to break 80 games total at this point.
I think that if they keep both AJ and Tingler, next year we'll see the same thing, only different…
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Post by johneaztec on Sept 23, 2021 8:28:50 GMT -8
Weren't some people here talking about Preller getting a statue out front one day? Lol.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 23, 2021 9:00:34 GMT -8
Putting aside the horrible luck that the team has dealt with this year, Tingler has not gotten the most out of his players. And little things, like batting Tatis first, not giving Kim more playing time, making poor substitutions, add up in the long run. The team is weak mentally, and Tingler hasn't improved their mental fortitude. Some of it is luck, but when you keep seeing solo homers, or having the bases loaded no outs but only getting one run, it makes you start to question if the pressure is getting to this group. We out slugged the Giants in both games, equaled them in hits, and were outscored in both games. There's a lack of execution by the players, and there is also the idiocy of batting the NL home run leader first in the lineup. I'm sorry but it's idiotic in the National League with the pitcher hitting 9th. If you want to maximize his at bats, fine hit him 2'nd or 3'rd, but realistically he should always be hitting 2, 3 or 4. Batting Tatis leadoff is fine. The reality is that offensively, outside of Cronenworth, Tatis and Machado, the rest of the offense has combined for less than 4 WAR as a whole. And you're committed to playing two negative WAR players over 200 games combined. That's just bad process, unfortunately.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 23, 2021 9:16:38 GMT -8
Weren't some people here talking about Preller getting a statue out front one day? Lol. Lol - Yeah, dude. A general manager constructs a roster given the resources to them by ownership. In the span of a couple weeks, AJ traded for Yu Darvish, former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and massively underrated Joe Musgrove to reinforce the starting rotation. The question that needs to be asked is why players that come here underperform dramatically to expectations? Is Yu Darvish suddenly not good anymore? They traded for three top 30 arms. Three. Only Musgrove really pitched to his potential. They probably need 12+ WAR out of that trio...they didn't even get 10. If you would have told me before this season that this roster would have a 22-year-old shortstop hit 40 home runs and steal 25 bases, Joe Musgrove would throw a no-hitter, Mark Melancon would have a stellar year as a closer and Jake Cronenworth would take another step towards being a star, I would have assumed the team would win 95 games. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. That doesn't mean the pieces weren't in place to do so, though. They had a deal in place to acquire Max Scherzer at the deadline before the Nationals and Scott Boras did what they did. AJ of course gets no credit for that because it didn't come to fruition. How different would this rotation be with Scherzer getting starts instead of Vince Velasquez? Just a bit different, right? There's a solid core in place, as constructed by AJ Preller. The only notable free agent is Tommy Pham on the position player side. Everyone else is under control through at least next season. Preller isn't going to be fired - He's under contract through 2026 and was promoted just a few months ago. Strengthen the group around him and add some reinforcements to the roster (again) while cutting bait with the albatross on the roster.
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Post by aztecryan on Sept 23, 2021 9:33:48 GMT -8
By the way, the Padres are projected to win 92 games next season, with no changes to the roster.
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