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Post by johneaztec on Aug 16, 2021 12:42:10 GMT -8
Ok, but when a guy's turning it around and has been doing very well since July, and all he can come up with is only how he's doing overall for the whole year without mentioning how well he's doing currently, and completely diminishes anything that he's done well in this streak, it raises a red flag about the fact that he self admittedly doesn't like him. Of course some people are going to question that bias approach. No, John. Not the way it works. I've said now at least three times how he's doing "better since June" which you repeatedly get stuck on. It's impossible *not* to be better since June because it was Hosmer's worst month as a professional. Listen to yourself here: You're trying to make an argument for recency bias. That's a complete fallacy. I've provided the actual numbers, more than once now. The best you can do is talk in wandering generalities about "better" and the "streak" and "turning it around"...all of which are essentially meaningless because they provide no frame of reference. Why should we put more weight into six weeks than we do an entire season, or moreover, multiple seasons? That's not how statistics work. And, the three times you said it was when you were called out for not saying anything. That doesn't fool anyone. I'm over this. Let's hope Hosmer continues his pace or better and helps the Pads get into the playoffs, win in the playoffs and WS. |
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Post by sdcoug on Aug 16, 2021 12:45:57 GMT -8
Just stop. You're making yourself look worse by the minute. Not my concern, really. You're one of the more reasonable posters here, and I'm a fan. But this isn't the argument to choose. I'm at a loss for what would compel anyone to make a defense on this subject. There's no logical or statistical argument that's genuine. The pure and simple matter is that the Padres would be a much better team with Cronenworth at first, Kim at shortstop and Tatis...wherever he really wants to play, I guess. That's what I care about. For the folks who seem to think this is just an anti-Hosmer diatribe, it isn't. I have no vendetta or agenda against a player...and never will. Most importantly, they won! Appreciate the compliment, and typically back at you! But trashing Acee, using "recency bias" and saying Hosmer is "better than June (then saying that's nothing since he was horrendous in June)"? Come on. July/August is 37 games for Hosmer, over a third of the season played, and represents 130+ ABs. We're not talking a 15-20 game streak with 75 ABs, or thereabouts. I'd understand the "recency" label more in that situation, even though I personally put more weight on the most recent 20 games than what happened 40+ games ago. The guy is .333/.443/.506/.919 since the AS break, and hitting .347 overall with a OPS around .930 over those 2 months. Since the AS break he's a top 10 1B offensively - he's top 3 in BA%, top 5 in OBP, top 10 in BB%, K% (9th lowest among eligible 1Bs). He may not be the power hitter you think he has to be, but a SLG% of .506 doesn't suck - 14th among 1Bs, and better than Vlad Guerrero since the break. Even if you discount the past 37 games due to "recency bias", why ignore April? He's basically had 3 good months - 63 games played, well over half of all the games he's played this year to go with 1 mediocre month (May) & 1 really bad month. Heck, throw in 2020 & the sample size of "good" easily outweighs the bad. Even including June (& May), for the year he's much closer to his old self than the player he was in 2018 & 2019. I know you're hung up on WAR, but even that varies by source. More importantly, what was his WAR as of June 30th vs. today? Do you really believe he's been a sub-replacement player over the past 2 months? I have no doubt he'll have a rough week or two moving forward, since EVERY player does, but sample size with him being good is clearly bigger than the contrary. I just don't get why you can't simply say a) "I respect Acee's opinion even if I don't agree with it", since IMO he's a lot closer to the situation than you, and b) Hosmer has been "GOOD" since the beginning of July?! It really isn't that hard, and IMO the stats support at least that statement. |
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Post by aardvark on Aug 16, 2021 12:50:08 GMT -8
Jake Arrieta has been absolutely dreadful for awhile now. LOL. I'd rather have signed Bartolo Colon from the Mexican league. But....I am hoping he can at least pitch "decent" and keep the Padres in games. Not counting on it though. And we know that Colon has power to LF at Petco.  |
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 16, 2021 12:55:29 GMT -8
Not my concern, really. You're one of the more reasonable posters here, and I'm a fan. But this isn't the argument to choose. I'm at a loss for what would compel anyone to make a defense on this subject. There's no logical or statistical argument that's genuine. The pure and simple matter is that the Padres would be a much better team with Cronenworth at first, Kim at shortstop and Tatis...wherever he really wants to play, I guess. That's what I care about. For the folks who seem to think this is just an anti-Hosmer diatribe, it isn't. I have no vendetta or agenda against a player...and never will. Most importantly, they won! Appreciate the compliment, and typically back at you! But trashing Acee, using "recency bias" and saying Hosmer is "better than June (then saying that's nothing since he was horrendous in June)"? Come on. July/August is 37 games for Hosmer, over a third of the season played, and represents 130+ ABs. We're not talking a 15-20 game streak with 75 ABs, or thereabouts. I'd understand the "recency" label more in that situation, even though I personally put more weight on the most recent 20 games than what happened 40+ games ago. The guy is .333/.443/.506/.919 since the AS break, and hitting .347 overall with a OPS around .930 over those 2 months. Since the AS break he's a top 10 1B offensively - he's top 3 in BA%, top 5 in OBP, top 10 in BB%, K% (9th lowest among eligible 1Bs). He may not be the power hitter you think he has to be, but a SLG% of .506 doesn't suck - 14th among 1Bs, and better than Vlad Guerrero since the break. Even if you discount the past 37 games due to "recency bias", why ignore April? He's basically had 3 good months - 63 games played, well over half of all the games he's played this year to go with 1 mediocre month (May) & 1 really bad month. Heck, throw in 2020 & the sample size of "good" easily outweighs the bad. Even including June (& May), for the year he's much closer to his old self than the player he was in 2018 & 2019. I know you're hung up on WAR, but even that varies by source. More importantly, what was his WAR as of June 30th vs. today? Do you really believe he's been a sub-replacement player over the past 2 months? I have no doubt he'll have a rough week or two moving forward, since EVERY player does, but sample size with him being good is clearly bigger than the contrary. I just don't get why you can't simply say a) "I respect Acee's opinion even if I don't agree with it", since IMO he's a lot closer to the situation than you, and b) Hosmer has been "GOOD" since the beginning of July?! It really isn't that hard, and IMO the stats support at least that statement. Ryan cant/won't say those words because he doesn't like him personally. He can't separate the two. If it was Pham, or really anybody else, he'd be all over the praise. He'll continue to say it has nothing to do with it, but common sense and his posts say otherwise. I like some of what Ryan posts, but he let's his personal feelings get in the way too often. It's a shame. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2021 13:14:10 GMT -8
Not my concern, really. You're one of the more reasonable posters here, and I'm a fan. But this isn't the argument to choose. I'm at a loss for what would compel anyone to make a defense on this subject. There's no logical or statistical argument that's genuine. The pure and simple matter is that the Padres would be a much better team with Cronenworth at first, Kim at shortstop and Tatis...wherever he really wants to play, I guess. That's what I care about. For the folks who seem to think this is just an anti-Hosmer diatribe, it isn't. I have no vendetta or agenda against a player...and never will. Most importantly, they won! Appreciate the compliment, and typically back at you! But trashing Acee, using "recency bias" and saying Hosmer is "better than June (then saying that's nothing since he was horrendous in June)"? Come on. July/August is 37 games for Hosmer, over a third of the season played, and represents 130+ ABs. We're not talking a 15-20 game streak with 75 ABs, or thereabouts. I'd understand the "recency" label more in that situation, even though I personally put more weight on the most recent 20 games than what happened 40+ games ago. The guy is .333/.443/.506/.919 since the AS break, and hitting .347 overall with a OPS around .930 over those 2 months. Since the AS break he's a top 10 1B offensively - he's top 3 in BA%, top 5 in OBP, top 10 in BB%, K% (9th lowest among eligible 1Bs). He may not be the power hitter you think he has to be, but a SLG% of .506 doesn't suck - 14th among 1Bs, and better than Vlad Guerrero since the break. Even if you discount the past 37 games due to "recency bias", why ignore April? He's basically had 3 good months - 63 games played, well over half of all the games he's played this year to go with 1 mediocre month (May) & 1 really bad month. Heck, throw in 2020 & the sample size of "good" easily outweighs the bad. Even including June (& May), for the year he's much closer to his old self than the player he was in 2018 & 2019. I know you're hung up on WAR, but even that varies by source. More importantly, what was his WAR as of June 30th vs. today? Do you really believe he's been a sub-replacement player over the past 2 months? I have no doubt he'll have a rough week or two moving forward, since EVERY player does, but sample size with him being good is clearly bigger than the contrary. I just don't get why you can't simply say a) "I respect Acee's opinion even if I don't agree with it", since IMO he's a lot closer to the situation than you, and b) Hosmer has been "GOOD" since the beginning of July?! It really isn't that hard, and IMO the stats support at least that statement. I don't think Ryan DOES respect Acee's opinion, LOL.  Reporters are expected to be fair and impartial. And that means sometimes criticizing a player you actually like. I am NOT anywhere near informed enough to say if Acee is indeed fair and unbiased, but if his reputation is he is not --- I could see the dislike from other insiders. |
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Post by sdsuball on Sept 4, 2021 23:50:07 GMT -8
Interesting stats on El Nino:
Fernando is hitting a homerun once every 10.3 at bats this year.
Shohei is hitting one only once every 10.8 at bats.
To put Fernando's 10.3 number into perspective, Bonds hit a homer every 9.03 at bats in the year where he hit 73 homers.
For Bonds's career, he hit a homer once every 16.5 at bats.
For Fernando's career thus far, he has hit a homer once every 12.5 at bats.
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Post by junior on Sept 5, 2021 12:58:34 GMT -8
Given BB's sample size - Fernando's sample size, while not microscopic, is comparatively small. (there is a small bone of contention about some of BB's sample - it's really not comparable to Tatis, Jr's - hopefully…)
But when Tatis, Jr finally puts together an entire season - at least 150+ games - he'll be untouchable. At his age, he could easily still be playing college baseball.
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