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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2021 7:40:30 GMT -8
I'm no less bullish on SD's future than I was in April. I think this team is going to be competitive for years to come, and possibly compete for a World Series.
As a realist, I don't think the Padres have the starting pitching to win much in October, if they get there. But, things can change. Snell could get on a heater, Paddack can possibly get healthy and turn it around, and hopefully Lamet becomes a bullpen weapon after his rehab assignment.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 6, 2021 9:45:06 GMT -8
Scherzer and Turner have nothing to do with Hamels in any shape or form. The reason LA got Turner (who still hasn't even played a game yet) and Scherzer has already been hammered home. Neither player makes the Dodgers markedly better from a win perspective because their weaknesses are still there. Turner's going to take away at-bats from some combination of Muncy/Taylor/Turner/Stager, unless the Dodgers outright bench Cody Bellinger. The bullpen and rotation still have glaring holes and they still have an idiot running the ship. Trea Turner is a huge upgrade over Cory Seager or Cody Bellinger, at least for how those two have been playing this season vs. Turner. Having all three of them gives them the freedom to play lefty vs. righty matchups, play the hot hand, give guys more rest days, have better depth in case of injury, have better pinch hit at bats in the NL and a better DH in the AL (relevant for their World Series hopes). It's a pretty big deal. I don't understand why you are downplaying the value of getting an all-star with a 146 OPS+ this season. And how does Scherzer not help to address their rotation issues? Not downplaying anything. From a WIN perspective, the amount of at-bats being taken away from guys like Taylor and Seager is directly proportionate to the ones given to Turner. It's not like Turner is going to come in and give them +3 wins over the course of 7 weeks. Scherzer does help their rotation. But Kershaw is out another month (at least), Bauer's gone, Gonsolin's been shaky and is on the IL, David Price is still in the rotation and the bullpen is heavily reliant on a trio of Treinen, Jansen and Gonzalez. They still have a lot of work to do.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 6, 2021 9:48:18 GMT -8
Scherzer and Turner have nothing to do with Hamels in any shape or form. The reason LA got Turner (who still hasn't even played a game yet) and Scherzer has already been hammered home. Neither player makes the Dodgers markedly better from a win perspective because their weaknesses are still there. Turner's going to take away at-bats from some combination of Muncy/Taylor/Turner/Stager, unless the Dodgers outright bench Cody Bellinger. The bullpen and rotation still have glaring holes and they still have an idiot running the ship. Did you just actually try to spin this to say that this trade doesn't help them win ball games this year? Wow. Also, if it isn't going to help them win games much, and there's down sides to it, then why were you so upset, saying that the Nationals screwed us? Melodrama aside, there's no spin. Also, this may blow your mind, but impact varies from team to team and is not a universal, one size fits all concept. Turner/Scherzer on the Padres is a much bigger deal than it is for the Dodgers. That should be easily deduced if you're looking at roster composition.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2021 10:25:51 GMT -8
Trea Turner is a huge upgrade over Cory Seager or Cody Bellinger, at least for how those two have been playing this season vs. Turner. Having all three of them gives them the freedom to play lefty vs. righty matchups, play the hot hand, give guys more rest days, have better depth in case of injury, have better pinch hit at bats in the NL and a better DH in the AL (relevant for their World Series hopes). It's a pretty big deal. I don't understand why you are downplaying the value of getting an all-star with a 146 OPS+ this season. And how does Scherzer not help to address their rotation issues? Not downplaying anything. From a WIN perspective, the amount of at-bats being taken away from guys like Taylor and Seager is directly proportionate to the ones given to Turner. It's not like Turner is going to come in and give them +3 wins over the course of 7 weeks. Scherzer does help their rotation. But Kershaw is out another month (at least), Bauer's gone, Gonsolin's been shaky and is on the IL, David Price is still in the rotation and the bullpen is heavily reliant on a trio of Treinen, Jansen and Gonzalez. They still have a lot of work to do. Joe Kelly has been "good", and Bickford really good. The pen is pretty solid, but no better than what SDP can offer. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2021.shtml
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 6, 2021 10:48:26 GMT -8
Not downplaying anything. From a WIN perspective, the amount of at-bats being taken away from guys like Taylor and Seager is directly proportionate to the ones given to Turner. It's not like Turner is going to come in and give them +3 wins over the course of 7 weeks. Scherzer does help their rotation. But Kershaw is out another month (at least), Bauer's gone, Gonsolin's been shaky and is on the IL, David Price is still in the rotation and the bullpen is heavily reliant on a trio of Treinen, Jansen and Gonzalez. They still have a lot of work to do. Joe Kelly has been "good", and Bickford really good. The pen is pretty solid, but no better than what SDP can offer. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2021.shtmlYeah, Bickford is the classic waiver wire developmental home run that the Dodgers hit a lot on. But the Padre pen is so much deeper, and with Hudson coming tomorrow, about to get even better.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 6, 2021 11:14:47 GMT -8
Did you just actually try to spin this to say that this trade doesn't help them win ball games this year? Wow. Also, if it isn't going to help them win games much, and there's down sides to it, then why were you so upset, saying that the Nationals screwed us? Melodrama aside, there's no spin. Also, this may blow your mind, but impact varies from team to team and is not a universal, one size fits all concept. Turner/Scherzer on the Padres is a much bigger deal than it is for the Dodgers. That should be easily deduced if you're looking at roster composition. But, you were pretty upset that the Dodgers got them. Why, if it's not going to impact the Dodgers that much, and they have an "idiot" Manager, like you say?
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 6, 2021 11:37:26 GMT -8
Melodrama aside, there's no spin. Also, this may blow your mind, but impact varies from team to team and is not a universal, one size fits all concept. Turner/Scherzer on the Padres is a much bigger deal than it is for the Dodgers. That should be easily deduced if you're looking at roster composition. But, you were pretty upset that the Dodgers got them. Why, if it's not going to impact the Dodgers that much, and they have an "idiot" Manager, like you say? I'm annoyed because the leaking of trade packages is utter bull$#!+, especially in the latter stages of talks and Scherzer/Turner (who was not in play for the Padres) would have a much larger impact on the Padres (considering who they would be taking away at-bats from) than they will for LA. It's that simple. Turner, Taylor, Turner (Justin), Seager, Muncy, Bellinger? Turner, Cronenworth, Kim, Frazier, Hosmer. (Machado's not moving from third, obviously) I mean, you tell me what makes more sense here. And yes, Dave Roberts is an idiot.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 6, 2021 12:24:34 GMT -8
But, you were pretty upset that the Dodgers got them. Why, if it's not going to impact the Dodgers that much, and they have an "idiot" Manager, like you say? I'm annoyed because the leaking of trade packages is utter bull$#!+, especially in the latter stages of talks and Scherzer/Turner (who was not in play for the Padres) would have a much larger impact on the Padres (considering who they would be taking away at-bats from) than they will for LA. It's that simple. Turner, Taylor, Turner (Justin), Seager, Muncy, Bellinger? Turner, Cronenworth, Kim, Frazier, Hosmer. (Machado's not moving from third, obviously) I mean, you tell me what makes more sense here. And yes, Dave Roberts is an idiot. Mhm. Of course it most likely would have made a bigger impact with the Pads, but you're downplaying the impact it will have with the Dodgers. Not as much of an impact as it would with the Pads, but it should still make a big impact on the Dodgers, from pinch hitting, stealing bases, giving guys a rest and time to heal, and obtaining one of the best pitchers in baseball, etc... Let's just hope they both s##t the bed with tbe Dodgers. Every Padre fan should know we got screwed by the Nats. It's a no brainer.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 6, 2021 12:28:57 GMT -8
I'm annoyed because the leaking of trade packages is utter bull$#!+, especially in the latter stages of talks and Scherzer/Turner (who was not in play for the Padres) would have a much larger impact on the Padres (considering who they would be taking away at-bats from) than they will for LA. It's that simple. Turner, Taylor, Turner (Justin), Seager, Muncy, Bellinger? Turner, Cronenworth, Kim, Frazier, Hosmer. (Machado's not moving from third, obviously) I mean, you tell me what makes more sense here. And yes, Dave Roberts is an idiot. Mhm. Of course it most likely would have made a bigger impact with the Pads, but you're downplaying the impact it will have with tbe Dodgers. Not as much of an impact as it would with the Pads, but it should still make a big impact on the Dodgers. Let's just hope they both s##t the bed with tbe Dodgers. Every Padre fan should know we got screwed by the Nats. It's a no brainer. People look at value and ignore the other side of the equation. It's not solely about what a player brings - You're not upgrading from a baseline of zero. It's about what you're taking away from at the same time. Trea Turner 4.0 bWAR, Chris Taylor 3.6. (Not a significant upgrade) and I think Taylor is the guy who loses the most in this spot as Turner slides to second base.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 6, 2021 12:36:36 GMT -8
Mhm. Of course it most likely would have made a bigger impact with the Pads, but you're downplaying the impact it will have with tbe Dodgers. Not as much of an impact as it would with the Pads, but it should still make a big impact on the Dodgers. Let's just hope they both s##t the bed with tbe Dodgers. Every Padre fan should know we got screwed by the Nats. It's a no brainer. People look at value and ignore the other side of the equation. It's not solely about what a player brings - You're not upgrading from a baseline of zero. It's about what you're taking away from at the same time. Trea Turner 4.0 bWAR, Chris Taylor 3.6. (Not a significant upgrade) and I think Taylor is the guy who loses the most in this spot as Turner slides to second base. I understand why you're not bringing up Sherzer, which is a big upgrade for ANY team to get. There's no denying that. As far as Turner goes, he's hitting 322 with 22 stolen bases, etc... It gives them another really good bat, and more speed. Big upgrades no matter how you look at it.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 6, 2021 12:46:03 GMT -8
Mhm. Of course it most likely would have made a bigger impact with the Pads, but you're downplaying the impact it will have with tbe Dodgers. Not as much of an impact as it would with the Pads, but it should still make a big impact on the Dodgers. Let's just hope they both s##t the bed with tbe Dodgers. Every Padre fan should know we got screwed by the Nats. It's a no brainer. People look at value and ignore the other side of the equation. It's not solely about what a player brings - You're not upgrading from a baseline of zero. It's about what you're taking away from at the same time. Trea Turner 4.0 bWAR, Chris Taylor 3.6. (Not a significant upgrade) and I think Taylor is the guy who loses the most in this spot as Turner slides to second base. Okay, list out the WAR for all of those players: Turner, Taylor, Turner (Justin), Seager, Muncy, Bellinger Turner is an upgrade. Several of those players you listed play other positions besides middle infield. Now you don't have to give the weaker performers as many at bats. It's pretty simple really. Having Trea Turner and Chris Taylor up the middle is a significant upgrade. Seager is worse then those two players, and has 1 WAR over 43 games. Normalized for playing time that a 2 WAR upgrade (Trea Turner's 4WAR vs. Seagar's 2WAR that he would have if he played in 84 games instead of 42). Cody Bellinger has played like crap this year. Now you get Muncy, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner as your starting infield. Trea Turner is worth about 2 wins, maybe 1.5 considering the number of games left. The ace from the Nationals is worth a few wins. All in all they are like +3 or so wins as a result. Fangraphs may not have it that high but when you consider the multitude of Dodger injuries and underperformance, I would put it that high. It's a huge upgrade, and combined with the Padres recent struggles, mean that it's highly unlikely that we will win the division.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 6, 2021 13:09:25 GMT -8
People look at value and ignore the other side of the equation. It's not solely about what a player brings - You're not upgrading from a baseline of zero. It's about what you're taking away from at the same time. Trea Turner 4.0 bWAR, Chris Taylor 3.6. (Not a significant upgrade) and I think Taylor is the guy who loses the most in this spot as Turner slides to second base. Okay, list out the WAR for all of those players: Turner, Taylor, Turner (Justin), Seager, Muncy, Bellinger Turner is an upgrade. Several of those players you listed play other positions besides middle infield. Now you don't have to give the weaker performers as many at bats. It's pretty simple really. Having Trea Turner and Chris Taylor up the middle is a significant upgrade. Seager is worse then those two players, and has 1 WAR over 43 games. Normalized for playing time that a 2 WAR upgrade (Trea Turner's 4WAR vs. Seagar's 2WAR that he would have if he played in 84 games instead of 42). Cody Bellinger has played like crap this year. Now you get Muncy, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner as your starting infield. Trea Turner is worth about 2 wins, maybe 1.5 considering the number of games left. The ace from the Nationals is worth a few wins. All in all they are like +3 or so wins as a result. Fangraphs may not have it that high but when you consider the multitude of Dodger injuries and underperformance, I would put it that high. It's a huge upgrade, and combined with the Padres recent struggles, mean that it's highly unlikely that we will win the division. That's right. It gives the Dodgers a very big boost in their chase to win the division. Sherzer and Buehler, wow. And, that's not even taking into consideration, Kershaw, et al. Huge upgrade with Sherzer AND Turner.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 6, 2021 13:15:45 GMT -8
Okay, list out the WAR for all of those players: Turner, Taylor, Turner (Justin), Seager, Muncy, Bellinger Turner is an upgrade. Several of those players you listed play other positions besides middle infield. Now you don't have to give the weaker performers as many at bats. It's pretty simple really. Having Trea Turner and Chris Taylor up the middle is a significant upgrade. Seager is worse then those two players, and has 1 WAR over 43 games. Normalized for playing time that a 2 WAR upgrade (Trea Turner's 4WAR vs. Seagar's 2WAR that he would have if he played in 84 games instead of 42). Cody Bellinger has played like crap this year. Now you get Muncy, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner as your starting infield. Trea Turner is worth about 2 wins, maybe 1.5 considering the number of games left. The ace from the Nationals is worth a few wins. All in all they are like +3 or so wins as a result. Fangraphs may not have it that high but when you consider the multitude of Dodger injuries and underperformance, I would put it that high. It's a huge upgrade, and combined with the Padres recent struggles, mean that it's highly unlikely that we will win the division. That's right. It gives the Dodgers a very big boost in their chase to win the division. Sherzer and Buehler, wow. And, that's not even taking into consideration, Kershaw, et al. Huge upgrade with Sherzer AND Turner. SCHERZER.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 6, 2021 13:16:46 GMT -8
People look at value and ignore the other side of the equation. It's not solely about what a player brings - You're not upgrading from a baseline of zero. It's about what you're taking away from at the same time. Trea Turner 4.0 bWAR, Chris Taylor 3.6. (Not a significant upgrade) and I think Taylor is the guy who loses the most in this spot as Turner slides to second base. Okay, list out the WAR for all of those players: Turner, Taylor, Turner (Justin), Seager, Muncy, Bellinger Turner is an upgrade. Several of those players you listed play other positions besides middle infield. Now you don't have to give the weaker performers as many at bats. It's pretty simple really. Having Trea Turner and Chris Taylor up the middle is a significant upgrade. Seager is worse then those two players, and has 1 WAR over 43 games. Normalized for playing time that a 2 WAR upgrade (Trea Turner's 4WAR vs. Seagar's 2WAR that he would have if he played in 84 games instead of 42). Cody Bellinger has played like crap this year. Now you get Muncy, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner as your starting infield. Trea Turner is worth about 2 wins, maybe 1.5 considering the number of games left. The ace from the Nationals is worth a few wins. All in all they are like +3 or so wins as a result. Fangraphs may not have it that high but when you consider the multitude of Dodger injuries and underperformance, I would put it that high. It's a huge upgrade, and combined with the Padres recent struggles, mean that it's highly unlikely that we will win the division. Okay.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 6, 2021 13:21:32 GMT -8
That's right. It gives the Dodgers a very big boost in their chase to win the division. Sherzer and Buehler, wow. And, that's not even taking into consideration, Kershaw, et al. Huge upgrade with Sherzer AND Turner. SCHERZER. Ok. Lol. You don't have to scream about a typo. Sheesh
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 6, 2021 13:25:18 GMT -8
Ok. Lol. You don't have to scream about a typo. Sheesh No screaming, just emphasis. Friend of mine has done the same all week on social media.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2021 14:27:02 GMT -8
Dave Roberts may not be Dick Williams, but he'd have two World Series championships in 3 years if the Astros hadn't cheated.
I firmly believe that. It was a great series, a close series ---- and the 'Stros absolutely knew what Darvish was throwing that game he got his ass lit. Among other stealing.
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 6, 2021 15:21:47 GMT -8
Dave Roberts may not be Dick Williams, but he'd have two World Series championships in 3 years if the Astros hadn't cheated. I firmly believe that. It was a great series, a close series ---- and the 'Stros absolutely knew what Darvish was throwing that game he got his ass lit. Among other stealing. Totally agree. They obviously have a great chance again this year.
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Post by sdcoug on Aug 6, 2021 16:16:56 GMT -8
Dave Roberts may not be Dick Williams, but he'd have two World Series championships in 3 years if the Astros hadn't cheated.
I firmly believe that. It was a great series, a close series ---- and the 'Stros absolutely knew what Darvish was throwing that game he got his ass lit. Among other stealing. IMO that would have happened in spite of Roberts not because of him. When you're payroll dwarfs others, it's not that hard to win...
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Post by junior on Aug 6, 2021 21:22:31 GMT -8
Another opportunity LOST.
This team didn't want it tonight, apparently, losing AT HOME to the last place team in the NL.
You lose games like these, you're really not "in the running" for anything … are you?
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