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Post by johneaztec on Jul 18, 2021 21:49:24 GMT -8
I'm just following up on your critiquing that's left and right, and some that aren't valid. You're probably the only one that isn't happy, and down plays that Hosmer has turned it around and mashing again. That's shameful if you're really a fan. I highly suggest you expand your circle....My criticism is tame compared to what you'll see in baseball circles. June was the worst month of his entire career from a statistical perspective. I'm not going to be doing cartwheels because our first baseman is finally a league average hitter for a few days. (His wRC+ is 103 now) but he's not going to be able to sustain this production - He doesn't elevate the ball with regularity and those hits will become outs over time. Unless you think he's capable of hitting grounders at a .500+ average, of course. When he's doing well, like now, he also hits line drives. Don't forget about those, like that rocket home run off Sherzer today. Also, I'll take a well placed ground ball past the infield with RISP any day, as well, instead of a SO, or a pop up/fly out . Let's hope he keeps it going.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2021 11:19:42 GMT -8
I highly suggest you expand your circle....My criticism is tame compared to what you'll see in baseball circles. June was the worst month of his entire career from a statistical perspective. I'm not going to be doing cartwheels because our first baseman is finally a league average hitter for a few days. (His wRC+ is 103 now) but he's not going to be able to sustain this production - He doesn't elevate the ball with regularity and those hits will become outs over time. Unless you think he's capable of hitting grounders at a .500+ average, of course. When he's doing well, like now, he also hits line drives. Don't forget about those, like that rocket home run off Sherzer today. Also, I'll take a well placed ground ball past the infield with RISP any day, as well, instead of a SO, or a pop up/fly out . Let's hope he keeps it going. I don't need to hope. He's not a .400 hitter, plain and simple. It's just common sense and understanding a statistically based reality. You get so caught up in random, outlier flukes and recency bias...Maintaining objectivity when we have a multi-year pattern to base off of is crucial here. This isn't a "turnaround" - It's another hot streak that will eventually fall back to the mean level of performance. He does this every year and ends up back in mediocrity when all is said and done. Being a fan doesn't mean you cannot be critical of underperformance.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 11:32:01 GMT -8
When he's doing well, like now, he also hits line drives. Don't forget about those, like that rocket home run off Sherzer today. Also, I'll take a well placed ground ball past the infield with RISP any day, as well, instead of a SO, or a pop up/fly out . Let's hope he keeps it going. I don't need to hope. He's not a .400 hitter, plain and simple. It's just common sense and understanding a statistically based reality. You get so caught up in random, outlier flukes and recency bias...Maintaining objectivity when we have a multi-year pattern to base off of is crucial here. This isn't a "turnaround" - It's another hot streak that will eventually fall back to the mean level of performance. He does this every year and ends up back in mediocrity when all is said and done. Being a fan doesn't mean you cannot be critical of underperformance. Of course he's not a 400 hitter. I'm hoping he ends up at 280, or above. I'm hoping he keeps pace at that pace, level. That's ridiculous to think that he'll hit the way he is right now, all year. But, there's nothing wrong to get excited about what he's currently doing, and that's what I'm doing, instead of having the attitude of, oh well, he's going to suck when it's all said and done. That would be the attitude of a non fan, or someone who simply doesn't like the individual. I've never said it was a turnaround. I've said that I'm hoping for the best, and enjoying the moment. That's it.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2021 12:53:39 GMT -8
I don't need to hope. He's not a .400 hitter, plain and simple. It's just common sense and understanding a statistically based reality. You get so caught up in random, outlier flukes and recency bias...Maintaining objectivity when we have a multi-year pattern to base off of is crucial here. This isn't a "turnaround" - It's another hot streak that will eventually fall back to the mean level of performance. He does this every year and ends up back in mediocrity when all is said and done. Being a fan doesn't mean you cannot be critical of underperformance. Of course he's not a 400 hitter. I'm hoping he ends up at 280, or above. I'm hoping he keeps pace at that pace, level. That's ridiculous to think that he'll hit the way he is right now, all year. But, there's nothing wrong to get excited about what he's currently doing, and that's what I'm doing, instead of having the attitude of, oh well, he's going to suck when it's all said and done. That would be the attitude of a non fan, or someone who simply doesn't like the individual. I've never said it was a turnaround. I've said that I'm hoping for the best, and enjoying the moment. That's it. You keep circling back to questioning my fandom. Why? Being a fan doesn't mean you have to blindly have your head in the sand and pretend that everything is okay. Criticism, when valid and backed with numerous staistical examples is perfectly acceptable and normal.. Eric Hosmer has produced 0.2 WAR since becoming a Padre. 0.2. He's been paid 84 million dollars since arriving here for replacement level production. That's terrible, in case you're not aware. It makes him one of the top 5 worst players in baseball since 2018. You can root for someone to do better, while accepting the fact that we have plenty of data to draw from that indicate that will not happen. Combine that with his statements that he's "comfortable with where he's at" and okay with "what he brings to the team" and doesn't really seek to improve? That's not a "non-fan"...it's an informed opinion based on an understanding of the player by their own admission.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 13:33:47 GMT -8
Of course he's not a 400 hitter. I'm hoping he ends up at 280, or above. I'm hoping he keeps pace at that pace, level. That's ridiculous to think that he'll hit the way he is right now, all year. But, there's nothing wrong to get excited about what he's currently doing, and that's what I'm doing, instead of having the attitude of, oh well, he's going to suck when it's all said and done. That would be the attitude of a non fan, or someone who simply doesn't like the individual. I've never said it was a turnaround. I've said that I'm hoping for the best, and enjoying the moment. That's it. You keep circling back to questioning my fandom. Why? Being a fan doesn't mean you have to blindly have your head in the sand and pretend that everything is okay. Criticism, when valid and backed with numerous staistical examples is perfectly acceptable and normal.. Eric Hosmer has produced 0.2 WAR since becoming a Padre. 0.2. He's been paid 84 million dollars since arriving here for replacement level production. That's terrible, in case you're not aware. It makes him one of the top 5 worst players in baseball since 2018. You can root for someone to do better, while accepting the fact that we have plenty of data to draw from that indicate that will not happen. Combine that with his statements that he's "comfortable with where he's at" and okay with "what he brings to the team" and doesn't really seek to improve? That's not a "non-fan"...it's an informed opinion based on an understanding of the player by their own admission. The main thing that I keep circling back to you with is that I'm simply enjoying what he's bringing to the table now, and that he can get stay fairly consistent and have a productive year when it's all said and done. What you're saying is that it WON'T happen and you have zero hope, and what I'm saying is that I'm hoping it does. You're sticking with the stats and saying they'll never waver, rigid, and I'm saying that they're not always correct, and can be improved upon even if it's only for this year. Let's all hope he has a good year.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 19, 2021 13:34:08 GMT -8
Of course he's not a 400 hitter. I'm hoping he ends up at 280, or above. I'm hoping he keeps pace at that pace, level. That's ridiculous to think that he'll hit the way he is right now, all year. But, there's nothing wrong to get excited about what he's currently doing, and that's what I'm doing, instead of having the attitude of, oh well, he's going to suck when it's all said and done. That would be the attitude of a non fan, or someone who simply doesn't like the individual. I've never said it was a turnaround. I've said that I'm hoping for the best, and enjoying the moment. That's it. You keep circling back to questioning my fandom. Why? Being a fan doesn't mean you have to blindly have your head in the sand and pretend that everything is okay. Criticism, when valid and backed with numerous staistical examples is perfectly acceptable and normal.. Eric Hosmer has produced 0.2 WAR since becoming a Padre. 0.2. He's been paid 84 million dollars since arriving here for replacement level production. That's terrible, in case you're not aware. It makes him one of the top 5 worst players in baseball since 2018.You can root for someone to do better, while accepting the fact that we have plenty of data to draw from that indicate that will not happen. Combine that with his statements that he's "comfortable with where he's at" and okay with "what he brings to the team" and doesn't really seek to improve? That's not a "non-fan"...it's an informed opinion based on an understanding of the player by their own admission. "Top 5 worst players" or among the worst VALUES in baseball? I have a hard time believing he's among the 5 worst players in MLB, but when you factor in $20M I can definitely see him being among the worst values. Yes, there is a difference (a big one). The contract at this point is moot, as its a sunk cost. All that matters from this point on is production. Count me in the camp that hopes his production over the next 60 days is more in-line with his production over the past 30 days, where he's 5th among all qualified 1B's in OPS at 0.945, than the 30 days prior to that. Yes, that's "recency bias" but I tend to place more emphasis on what a player does in the most recent 30 days over what he did the 30 days prior to that. The only question is whether your comfort level that it happens is greater than the value we can get in a replacement? Personally, I think he's not going anywhere & at worst will be playing 2 out of every 3 games, maybe sitting against lefties. Whether Nola, Myers, Crone and/or a new add plays the other 3rd is still TBD, but given my belief he's not going anywhere I don't understand not wanting him to continue on his current pace? There are numerous stories about how hard he's worked on correcting his stance & swing, so to think he's OK with being bad seems foolish. His work (hopefully) has paid off. If not, the Pads definitely need a plan B.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 13:46:32 GMT -8
You keep circling back to questioning my fandom. Why? Being a fan doesn't mean you have to blindly have your head in the sand and pretend that everything is okay. Criticism, when valid and backed with numerous staistical examples is perfectly acceptable and normal.. Eric Hosmer has produced 0.2 WAR since becoming a Padre. 0.2. He's been paid 84 million dollars since arriving here for replacement level production. That's terrible, in case you're not aware. It makes him one of the top 5 worst players in baseball since 2018.You can root for someone to do better, while accepting the fact that we have plenty of data to draw from that indicate that will not happen. Combine that with his statements that he's "comfortable with where he's at" and okay with "what he brings to the team" and doesn't really seek to improve? That's not a "non-fan"...it's an informed opinion based on an understanding of the player by their own admission. "Top 5 worst players" or among the worst VALUES in baseball? I have a hard time believing he's among the 5 worst players in MLB, but when you factor in $20M I can definitely see him being among the worst values. Yes, there is a difference (a big one). The contract at this point is moot, as its a sunk cost. All that matters from this point on is production. Count me in the camp that hopes his production over the next 60 days is more in-line with his production over the past 30 days, where he's 5th among all qualified 1B's in OPS at 0.945, than the 30 days prior to that. Yes, that's "recency bias" but I tend to place more emphasis on what a player does in the most recent 30 days over what he did the 30 days prior to that. The only question is whether your comfort level that it happens is greater than the value we can get in a replacement? Personally, I think he's not going anywhere & at worst will be playing 2 out of every 3 games, maybe sitting against lefties. Whether Nola, Myers, Crone and/or a new add plays the other 3rd is still TBD, but given my belief he's not going anywhere I don't understand not wanting him to continue on his current pace? There are numerous stories about how hard he's worked on correcting his stance & swing, so to think he's OK with being bad seems foolish. His work (hopefully) has paid off. If not, the Pads definitely need a plan B. He must mean for value, because he's obviously not the 5th worst player in all of baseball. If a person is a fan of a team then you want ALL of their players to do well and have hope that they can have a good statistical year in the end, even if the stats say that he might not, unless that person is biased against a certain player. I don't know of anyone that's a fan that would say sternly, nope, he's going to end up where the stats have said, and have zero hope that he'll buck the trend. Mind boggling.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 19, 2021 14:06:42 GMT -8
"Top 5 worst players" or among the worst VALUES in baseball? I have a hard time believing he's among the 5 worst players in MLB, but when you factor in $20M I can definitely see him being among the worst values. Yes, there is a difference (a big one). The contract at this point is moot, as its a sunk cost. All that matters from this point on is production. Count me in the camp that hopes his production over the next 60 days is more in-line with his production over the past 30 days, where he's 5th among all qualified 1B's in OPS at 0.945, than the 30 days prior to that. Yes, that's "recency bias" but I tend to place more emphasis on what a player does in the most recent 30 days over what he did the 30 days prior to that. The only question is whether your comfort level that it happens is greater than the value we can get in a replacement? Personally, I think he's not going anywhere & at worst will be playing 2 out of every 3 games, maybe sitting against lefties. Whether Nola, Myers, Crone and/or a new add plays the other 3rd is still TBD, but given my belief he's not going anywhere I don't understand not wanting him to continue on his current pace? There are numerous stories about how hard he's worked on correcting his stance & swing, so to think he's OK with being bad seems foolish. His work (hopefully) has paid off. If not, the Pads definitely need a plan B. He must mean for value, because he's obviously not the 5th worst player in all of baseball. If a person is a fan of a team then you want ALL of their players to do well and have hope that they can have a good statistical year in the end, even if the stats say that he might not, unless that person is biased against a certain player. I don't know of anyone that's a fan that would say sternly, nope, he's going to end up where the stats have said, and have zero hope that he'll buck the trend. Mind boggling. I'm thinking it's just semantics. If I'm 90% confident someone isn't going to continue as is, I get being pessimistic. I doubt it means he doesn't want (or hope/pray) Hosmer to continue raking, only that he's just much less optimistic of it happening & would rather see us go in a different direction. Doesn't make you less of a fan, just a more pessimistic one (which is fine). There were a lot of pessimistic people when it came to Pham in early May, less so on this board than others. The one thing I do know is it can be contagious, as we've seen over the past 30 days or so! Whatever bug Hosmer's caught I hope it continues, along with Myers, Profar, etc.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2021 14:14:13 GMT -8
You keep circling back to questioning my fandom. Why? Being a fan doesn't mean you have to blindly have your head in the sand and pretend that everything is okay. Criticism, when valid and backed with numerous staistical examples is perfectly acceptable and normal.. Eric Hosmer has produced 0.2 WAR since becoming a Padre. 0.2. He's been paid 84 million dollars since arriving here for replacement level production. That's terrible, in case you're not aware. It makes him one of the top 5 worst players in baseball since 2018.You can root for someone to do better, while accepting the fact that we have plenty of data to draw from that indicate that will not happen. Combine that with his statements that he's "comfortable with where he's at" and okay with "what he brings to the team" and doesn't really seek to improve? That's not a "non-fan"...it's an informed opinion based on an understanding of the player by their own admission. "Top 5 worst players" or among the worst VALUES in baseball? I have a hard time believing he's among the 5 worst players in MLB, but when you factor in $20M I can definitely see him being among the worst values. Yes, there is a difference (a big one). The contract at this point is moot, as its a sunk cost. All that matters from this point on is production. Count me in the camp that hopes his production over the next 60 days is more in-line with his production over the past 30 days, where he's 5th among all qualified 1B's in OPS at 0.945, than the 30 days prior to that. Yes, that's "recency bias" but I tend to place more emphasis on what a player does in the most recent 30 days over what he did the 30 days prior to that. The only question is whether your comfort level that it happens is greater than the value we can get in a replacement? Personally, I think he's not going anywhere & at worst will be playing 2 out of every 3 games, maybe sitting against lefties. Whether Nola, Myers, Crone and/or a new add plays the other 3rd is still TBD, but given my belief he's not going anywhere I don't understand not wanting him to continue on his current pace? There are numerous stories about how hard he's worked on correcting his stance & swing, so to think he's OK with being bad seems foolish. His work (hopefully) has paid off. If not, the Pads definitely need a plan B. From a WAR perspective. He's 204th out of 211 qualified players since 2018. The contract makes it worse, comprehensively. Value-wise, he's been worth -2.8 million this season. I have yet to see any of these articles that you're referencing outside of the Acee prestige piece where he talks about his swing being out of whack. There have been far more on the other side of the spectrum, with his refusal to buy into team philosophy.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2021 14:16:26 GMT -8
"Top 5 worst players" or among the worst VALUES in baseball? I have a hard time believing he's among the 5 worst players in MLB, but when you factor in $20M I can definitely see him being among the worst values. Yes, there is a difference (a big one). The contract at this point is moot, as its a sunk cost. All that matters from this point on is production. Count me in the camp that hopes his production over the next 60 days is more in-line with his production over the past 30 days, where he's 5th among all qualified 1B's in OPS at 0.945, than the 30 days prior to that. Yes, that's "recency bias" but I tend to place more emphasis on what a player does in the most recent 30 days over what he did the 30 days prior to that. The only question is whether your comfort level that it happens is greater than the value we can get in a replacement? Personally, I think he's not going anywhere & at worst will be playing 2 out of every 3 games, maybe sitting against lefties. Whether Nola, Myers, Crone and/or a new add plays the other 3rd is still TBD, but given my belief he's not going anywhere I don't understand not wanting him to continue on his current pace? There are numerous stories about how hard he's worked on correcting his stance & swing, so to think he's OK with being bad seems foolish. His work (hopefully) has paid off. If not, the Pads definitely need a plan B. He must mean for value, because he's obviously not the 5th worst player in all of baseball. If a person is a fan of a team then you want ALL of their players to do well and have hope that they can have a good statistical year in the end, even if the stats say that he might not, unless that person is biased against a certain player. I don't know of anyone that's a fan that would say sternly, nope, he's going to end up where the stats have said, and have zero hope that he'll buck the trend. Mind boggling. Eric Hosmer's ranks since joining the Padres among 211 qualified players : 0.2 WAR (204th) 98 wRC+ (149th) .321 OBP (140th) .315 wOBA (158th) .417 SLG (151st) -39.7 DEF (206th) Value : 1.8MM (204th) I mean....is that good? If there's a hill to plant a flag on, it isn't this one. This is over 1,800 plate appearances. You don't know of anyone who thinks he's going to end up doing poorly? Hard to fathom because that's all he's done since 2018.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 14:49:15 GMT -8
He must mean for value, because he's obviously not the 5th worst player in all of baseball. If a person is a fan of a team then you want ALL of their players to do well and have hope that they can have a good statistical year in the end, even if the stats say that he might not, unless that person is biased against a certain player. I don't know of anyone that's a fan that would say sternly, nope, he's going to end up where the stats have said, and have zero hope that he'll buck the trend. Mind boggling. Eric Hosmer's ranks since joining the Padres among 211 qualified players : 0.2 WAR (204th) 98 wRC+ (149th) .321 OBP (140th) .315 wOBA (158th) .417 SLG (151st) -39.7 DEF (206th) Value : 1.8MM (204th) I mean....is that good? If there's a hill to plant a flag on, it isn't this one. This is over 1,800 plate appearances. You don't know of anyone who thinks he's going to end up doing poorly? Do you live in an echo chamber? I'm sure there's people that think he'll end badly, but most hope he doesn't. I've always said that I hope he ends well and you've said that he will not. That's the difference between you, me and others. Also, like I've said, to each his own and let's hope he ends well.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 19, 2021 14:54:11 GMT -8
"Top 5 worst players" or among the worst VALUES in baseball? I have a hard time believing he's among the 5 worst players in MLB, but when you factor in $20M I can definitely see him being among the worst values. Yes, there is a difference (a big one). The contract at this point is moot, as its a sunk cost. All that matters from this point on is production. Count me in the camp that hopes his production over the next 60 days is more in-line with his production over the past 30 days, where he's 5th among all qualified 1B's in OPS at 0.945, than the 30 days prior to that. Yes, that's "recency bias" but I tend to place more emphasis on what a player does in the most recent 30 days over what he did the 30 days prior to that. The only question is whether your comfort level that it happens is greater than the value we can get in a replacement? Personally, I think he's not going anywhere & at worst will be playing 2 out of every 3 games, maybe sitting against lefties. Whether Nola, Myers, Crone and/or a new add plays the other 3rd is still TBD, but given my belief he's not going anywhere I don't understand not wanting him to continue on his current pace? There are numerous stories about how hard he's worked on correcting his stance & swing, so to think he's OK with being bad seems foolish. His work (hopefully) has paid off. If not, the Pads definitely need a plan B. From a WAR perspective. He's 204th out of 211 qualified players since 2018. The contract makes it worse, comprehensively. Value-wise, he's been worth -2.8 million this season. I have yet to see any of these articles that you're referencing outside of the Acee prestige piece where he talks about his swing being out of whack. There have been far more on the other side of the spectrum, with his refusal to buy into team philosophy. Sorry, but I see the following as someone who's working on their swing/stance in order to be more productive: “You don’t want to keep struggling,” he said. “You have to adjust on the fly, trying to figure out what was the biggest problem and go from there.” He was all over the place. His stance was off-kilter. He was not getting his arms and hands in the same place. He was battling his body. Over the course of a couple weeks, he fixed the stance, shortened his stride, got his posture consistent. “My body is in a better position to make my swing, posture-wise,” Hosmer said. “There is less movement, which leads to being quick, because I don’t have to work around anything to get to the ball. My body was blocking a little bit. I’ve got a clear path to the ball.” The outcome has been positive - VERY positive. That's all you can ask for when it comes to a player working on his mechanics IMO. Also, when using Baseball Savant and looking at xwOBA, Hosmer's at .333 this year overall, ranking 139th in the league, and he was .364 last year, ranking 58th. There are a lot of players ranked below him, including several Pads. I think the combination of last year & this year is a pretty decent sample size, so from a hitting perspective I just don't see the gloom & doom you do. Yes, his WAR of -0.2 this year is horrible, but he was 0.9 last year & ranked in the 180's. Again, combining the 2 he may not be good but don't think he's been among the bottom tier in baseball. I have no doubt his value since we got him is horrific, given the $20M contract, nor do I expect him to be an elite or even good player. But if he can continue the trend towards where he was last year I'd be OK with that. I really don't care about 2018 or 2019 - it's ancient history, and money we'll never get back. I only care about his production between now & October.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2021 16:17:27 GMT -8
Eric Hosmer's ranks since joining the Padres among 211 qualified players : 0.2 WAR (204th) 98 wRC+ (149th) .321 OBP (140th) .315 wOBA (158th) .417 SLG (151st) -39.7 DEF (206th) Value : 1.8MM (204th) I mean....is that good? If there's a hill to plant a flag on, it isn't this one. This is over 1,800 plate appearances. You don't know of anyone who thinks he's going to end up doing poorly? Do you live in an echo chamber? I'm sure there's people that think he'll end badly, but most hope he doesn't. I've always said that I hope he ends well and you've said that he will not. That's the difference between you, me and others. Also, like I've said, to each his own and let's hope he ends well. Hope doesn't matter to me, it's not rational or quantifiable. Of course I want him and everyone else to do well, especially now, but I like to deal in facts, not hope. Hope don't float.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2021 16:19:39 GMT -8
From a WAR perspective. He's 204th out of 211 qualified players since 2018. The contract makes it worse, comprehensively. Value-wise, he's been worth -2.8 million this season. I have yet to see any of these articles that you're referencing outside of the Acee prestige piece where he talks about his swing being out of whack. There have been far more on the other side of the spectrum, with his refusal to buy into team philosophy. Sorry, but I see the following as someone who's working on their swing/stance in order to be more productive: “You don’t want to keep struggling,” he said. “You have to adjust on the fly, trying to figure out what was the biggest problem and go from there.” He was all over the place. His stance was off-kilter. He was not getting his arms and hands in the same place. He was battling his body. Over the course of a couple weeks, he fixed the stance, shortened his stride, got his posture consistent. “My body is in a better position to make my swing, posture-wise,” Hosmer said. “There is less movement, which leads to being quick, because I don’t have to work around anything to get to the ball. My body was blocking a little bit. I’ve got a clear path to the ball.” The outcome has been positive - VERY positive. That's all you can ask for when it comes to a player working on his mechanics IMO. Also, when using Baseball Savant and looking at xwOBA, Hosmer's at .333 this year overall, ranking 139th in the league, and he was .364 last year, ranking 58th. There are a lot of players ranked below him, including several Pads. I think the combination of last year & this year is a pretty decent sample size, so from a hitting perspective I just don't see the gloom & doom you do. Yes, his WAR of -0.2 this year is horrible, but he was 0.9 last year & ranked in the 180's. Again, combining the 2 he may not be good but don't think he's been among the bottom tier in baseball. I have no doubt his value since we got him is horrific, given the $20M contract, nor do I expect him to be an elite or even good player. But if he can continue the trend towards where he was last year I'd be OK with that. I really don't care about 2018 or 2019 - it's ancient history, and money we'll never get back. I only care about his production between now & October. I understand, but applying a 60 game season while ignoring the previous two seasons entirely is bad process, in my opinion. I hope the changes he makes last, because he's had several iterations of his swing, but has always gone back to bad habits in the end. I suspect that this is pressure from above because they are trying to move him in a deal if they can find anyone to take on salary.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 19, 2021 16:46:41 GMT -8
Sorry, but I see the following as someone who's working on their swing/stance in order to be more productive: “You don’t want to keep struggling,” he said. “You have to adjust on the fly, trying to figure out what was the biggest problem and go from there.” He was all over the place. His stance was off-kilter. He was not getting his arms and hands in the same place. He was battling his body. Over the course of a couple weeks, he fixed the stance, shortened his stride, got his posture consistent. “My body is in a better position to make my swing, posture-wise,” Hosmer said. “There is less movement, which leads to being quick, because I don’t have to work around anything to get to the ball. My body was blocking a little bit. I’ve got a clear path to the ball.” The outcome has been positive - VERY positive. That's all you can ask for when it comes to a player working on his mechanics IMO. Also, when using Baseball Savant and looking at xwOBA, Hosmer's at .333 this year overall, ranking 139th in the league, and he was .364 last year, ranking 58th. There are a lot of players ranked below him, including several Pads. I think the combination of last year & this year is a pretty decent sample size, so from a hitting perspective I just don't see the gloom & doom you do. Yes, his WAR of -0.2 this year is horrible, but he was 0.9 last year & ranked in the 180's. Again, combining the 2 he may not be good but don't think he's been among the bottom tier in baseball. I have no doubt his value since we got him is horrific, given the $20M contract, nor do I expect him to be an elite or even good player. But if he can continue the trend towards where he was last year I'd be OK with that. I really don't care about 2018 or 2019 - it's ancient history, and money we'll never get back. I only care about his production between now & October. I understand, but applying a 60 game season while ignoring the previous two seasons entirely is bad process, in my opinion. I hope the changes he makes last, because he's had several iterations of his swing, but has always gone back to bad habits in the end. I suspect that this is pressure from above because they are trying to move him in a deal if they can find anyone to take on salary. It's not based on a 60 game season. It's based on 60 + 90, or basically the entirety of 1 year. I put a lot more weight in that than what happened 2 to 3 years ago, but that's just me.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 17:17:25 GMT -8
I understand, but applying a 60 game season while ignoring the previous two seasons entirely is bad process, in my opinion. I hope the changes he makes last, because he's had several iterations of his swing, but has always gone back to bad habits in the end. I suspect that this is pressure from above because they are trying to move him in a deal if they can find anyone to take on salary. It's not based on a 60 game season. It's based on 60 + 90, or basically the entirety of 1 year. I out a lot more weight in that than what happened 2 to 3 years ago, but that's just me. I agree. A lot can happen in 2 years.
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Post by johneaztec on Jul 19, 2021 17:19:38 GMT -8
I'm sure there's people that think he'll end badly, but most hope he doesn't. I've always said that I hope he ends well and you've said that he will not. That's the difference between you, me and others. Also, like I've said, to each his own and let's hope he ends well. Hope doesn't matter to me, it's not rational or quantifiable. Of course I want him and everyone else to do well, especially now, but I like to deal in facts, not hope. Hope don't float. Ok, you live life without hope. Like I've always said, to each his own.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2021 18:09:07 GMT -8
I understand, but applying a 60 game season while ignoring the previous two seasons entirely is bad process, in my opinion. I hope the changes he makes last, because he's had several iterations of his swing, but has always gone back to bad habits in the end. I suspect that this is pressure from above because they are trying to move him in a deal if they can find anyone to take on salary. It's not based on a 60 game season. It's based on 60 + 90, or basically the entirety of 1 year. I put a lot more weight in that than what happened 2 to 3 years ago, but that's just me. Take out July and see what you're left with.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 19, 2021 18:10:02 GMT -8
Hope doesn't matter to me, it's not rational or quantifiable. Of course I want him and everyone else to do well, especially now, but I like to deal in facts, not hope. Hope don't float. Ok, you live life without hope. Like I've always said, to each his own. You draw some ridiculous conclusions based on an inability to understand what I'm saying. Separate "hope" in a baseball setting with the reality of the player in question. If you're unable to argue the data, that's fine. There's a difference between optimism and insanity.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 19, 2021 18:21:09 GMT -8
Well, at least Hosmer hasn't dropped a pop-up in what, 3 weeks now?
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