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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2021 10:29:18 GMT -8
I found the move curious as well. But, I guess there are layers to this.
What’s the logic of sending Weathers down to Triple A if he’s going to log innings down there? Seems like we had an opportunity for him to start on Saturday. Understand if they give him a few weeks off to keep his innings count down, but you’d think the Pads would want to use all of the 100-plus innings he’s allotted this year. Could they have sent him down to adjust to pitching without sticky stuff? — Andrew J.
"This is not goo-driven. Weathers has said he doesn’t use sticky stuff, and his below-average spin rates back that assertion. That he has experienced major-league success, albeit in a small sample, speaks to his ability and his advanced command. It also highlights a curious decision. As you point out, the Padres could have started him Saturday instead of having him start the same night in El Paso, where he threw five scoreless innings while San Diego navigated a bullpen game. The Padres could have waited to option him, although that type of move still would’ve raised questions.
The Padres say they made the move in the interest of Weathers’ development as a starting pitcher. They cited Dinelson Lamet’s return to fuller workloads, and a desire to return to a five-man rotation. With Weathers back in relief, he would not have gotten as much opportunity to throw between-outings bullpen sessions, which are indeed essential to starting-pitching development. And there are things the Padres want him to work on. Weathers had a 2.47 ERA, but he also was among the majors’ more fortunate pitchers; while he’d held batters to a .208 average, Statcast put his “expected” number at .275.
Still, plenty of starting-pitching prospects have broken into the big leagues as relievers or swingmen, and Weathers had shown he can handle those roles. Lucky or not, he had been one of San Diego’s most effective performers. Why, when the Padres are trying to reach the postseason, would they expend his limited bullets in Triple A?
Here is one theory advanced by rival teams: The Padres might be gauging trade interest in Weathers, using Triple-A time to showcase him as a starter. Just about any rebuilding/retooling team should be interested — if Weathers is made available. Of course, the Padres would need a lot to part with a 21-year-old with mid-rotation potential. Like, say, a slugging outfielder and/or a more experienced pitcher with fewer innings restrictions.
Maybe Weathers’ demotion is really about his development in an organization that intends to keep him. Maybe there are other motivations. Either way, this was an interesting decision."
-Dennis Lin, The Athletic
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Post by junior on Jun 23, 2021 15:47:43 GMT -8
They've been shuttling arms back and forth for the past few weeks now. Could just be part of the Padre Shuffle, but it is worth questioning the difference between pitching to AAA hitters vs what he was doing in the majors. It could be that he's "working" on some things, and maybe mgmt doesn't want him doing that with post season play on the line. I'd hate to see him go. He's a competitor, he's young, and he's pretty fearless on the mound.
While the Padres may hope that all of their pitching dreams come true, each of them is just a pitch or a play away from hurting himself somehow. Depth of starting pitching at crunch time is priceless. Recall what happened last year…
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Post by docmm on Jun 25, 2021 12:18:38 GMT -8
I'd almost rather trade Gore while his unknown value is still high. With our present staff, Weathers and Clevinger coming back next year, we're looking pretty good.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 25, 2021 13:07:47 GMT -8
I'd almost rather trade Gore while his unknown value is still high. With our present staff, Weathers and Clevinger coming back next year, we're looking pretty good. His value is lower than it's ever been.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 1, 2021 23:06:34 GMT -8
We would be nuts to trade Weathers. He's a top of the rotation left handed starting pitcher in the making, he's proven his ability at the MLB level, and he's not a free agent until... 2027!!
For this year, our best pitchers in the playoffs are probably Darvish, Musgrove, and Lamet/Weathers. Lamet might not be able to give us more then 3 innings until/unless he has surgery, that's a real possibility. Might make sense to go back to pitching them back to back in the same game for the playoffs. Snell, hey maybe he turns it around, but I'm not holding my breath. Paddack is solid but not really a good third option.
Looking past this season, Lamet hasn't been reliably healthy, Clevinger will be coming off surgery, Snell might not be that great of a pitcher going forward. More depth is good.
What would we be getting in return? Better be an all-star level first basemen or corner outfielder with 4+ years of control..
How many players in the league actually fit that bill that teams are willing to trade?
I think that's a bad trade anyway, we need more starting pitching depth for the second half of the season as it is and Weathers provides that for us as he develops as well.
And I think that we can trade some lesser prospects for a talented one year rental at one of those positions, then take a look at free agency and Abrams development for next year.
If we are doing this to trade for 1-2 years of a premium starting pitcher, that also seems short sighted if it means giving up Weathers.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 1, 2021 23:19:26 GMT -8
We would be nuts to trade Weathers. He's a top of the rotation left handed starting pitcher in the making, he's proven his ability at the MLB level, and he's not a free agent until... 2027!! For this year, our best pitchers in the playoffs are probably Darvish, Musgrove, and Lamet/Weathers. Lamet might not be able to give us more then 3 innings until/unless he has surgery, that's a real possibility. Might make sense to go back to pitching them back to back in the same game for the playoffs. Snell, hey maybe he turns it around, but I'm not holding my breath. Paddack is solid but not really a good third option. Looking past this season, Lamet hasn't been reliably healthy, Clevinger will be coming off surgery, Snell might not be that great of a pitcher going forward. More depth is good. What would we be getting in return? Better be an all-star level first basemen or corner outfielder with 4+ years of control.. How many players in the league actually fit that bill that teams are willing to trade? I think that's a bad trade anyway, we need more starting pitching depth for the second half of the season as it is and Weathers provides that for us as he develops as well. And I think that we can trade some lesser prospects for a talented one year rental at one of those positions, then take a look at free agency and Abrams development for next year. If we are doing this to trade for 1-2 years of a premium starting pitcher, that also seems short sighted if it means giving up Weathers. This is a strong take...but here's some reality. A) He's not a top of the rotation pitcher. Doesn't get enough swings and misses, doesn't command the breaking stuff well enough, doesn't have elite velocity and doesn't have the durability. He's significantly outperforming his peripherals and that's a major concern as time goes on. Regression is coming, rapidly. B) I think the Padres trade for a starting pitcher so the rotation looks quite a bit different. I still have faith in Snell, who has some insane outlier type split stats on the road. At home, he's nothing short of dominant. He'll figure it out. C) I think the team knows where it stands next year with regards to the in-house options. If Gore can figure out the mechanical issues and the team can stop tinkering with him, things look a LOT more tenable.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 2, 2021 12:13:36 GMT -8
We would be nuts to trade Weathers. He's a top of the rotation left handed starting pitcher in the making, he's proven his ability at the MLB level, and he's not a free agent until... 2027!! For this year, our best pitchers in the playoffs are probably Darvish, Musgrove, and Lamet/Weathers. Lamet might not be able to give us more then 3 innings until/unless he has surgery, that's a real possibility. Might make sense to go back to pitching them back to back in the same game for the playoffs. Snell, hey maybe he turns it around, but I'm not holding my breath. Paddack is solid but not really a good third option. Looking past this season, Lamet hasn't been reliably healthy, Clevinger will be coming off surgery, Snell might not be that great of a pitcher going forward. More depth is good. What would we be getting in return? Better be an all-star level first basemen or corner outfielder with 4+ years of control.. How many players in the league actually fit that bill that teams are willing to trade? I think that's a bad trade anyway, we need more starting pitching depth for the second half of the season as it is and Weathers provides that for us as he develops as well. And I think that we can trade some lesser prospects for a talented one year rental at one of those positions, then take a look at free agency and Abrams development for next year. If we are doing this to trade for 1-2 years of a premium starting pitcher, that also seems short sighted if it means giving up Weathers. This is a strong take...but here's some reality. A) He's not a top of the rotation pitcher. Doesn't get enough swings and misses, doesn't command the breaking stuff well enough, doesn't have elite velocity and doesn't have the durability. He's significantly outperforming his peripherals and that's a major concern as time goes on. Regression is coming, rapidly. B) I think the Padres trade for a starting pitcher so the rotation looks quite a bit different. I still have faith in Snell, who has some insane outlier type split stats on the road. At home, he's nothing short of dominant. He'll figure it out. C) I think the team knows where it stands next year with regards to the in-house options. If Gore can figure out the mechanical issues and the team can stop tinkering with him, things look a LOT more tenable. Weathers has good command. It has gotten worse as of late but that will improve. He showed good command at the beginning of the year. He has (much) better command then Gore. Weathers has been dealing with some dead arm issues and his velo dropped since he had that issue. Before that he was sitting 95-96 on his fastball, now he's down to 93-94. As he builds up his arm strength he will get his fastball velo back up to 95-96. He's only 21 years old, he is not physically mature. His fastball at 95-96 is a quality pitch. He may, or may not, have durability. Again he's not physically mature yet. We are comparing the durability of a 21 year old kid to grown men. It's not a reasonable or fair comparison. He still has (a LOT) of time to develop his secondary offerings. He will become a better pitcher over time in this regard. Regarding his peripherals, Weathers is also outperforming them because he has the most pickoffs in the majors. Pickoffs are a statistic that isn't captured in FIP. Weathers has an Elite pickoff move to first, and he is tied with Kershaw for most pickoffs in MLB. He holds runners and gets free outs. I would expect him to continue to outperform his FIP for his (entire) career for this exact reason. I would also be willing to bet that his career WAR outperforms Gore's because of Gore's command issues.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 2, 2021 16:07:17 GMT -8
This is a strong take...but here's some reality. A) He's not a top of the rotation pitcher. Doesn't get enough swings and misses, doesn't command the breaking stuff well enough, doesn't have elite velocity and doesn't have the durability. He's significantly outperforming his peripherals and that's a major concern as time goes on. Regression is coming, rapidly. B) I think the Padres trade for a starting pitcher so the rotation looks quite a bit different. I still have faith in Snell, who has some insane outlier type split stats on the road. At home, he's nothing short of dominant. He'll figure it out. C) I think the team knows where it stands next year with regards to the in-house options. If Gore can figure out the mechanical issues and the team can stop tinkering with him, things look a LOT more tenable. Weathers has good command. It has gotten worse as of late but that will improve. He showed good command at the beginning of the year. He has (much) better command then Gore. Weathers has been dealing with some dead arm issues and his velo dropped since he had that issue. Before that he was sitting 95-96 on his fastball, now he's down to 93-94. As he builds up his arm strength he will get his fastball velo back up to 95-96. He's only 21 years old, he is not physically mature. His fastball at 95-96 is a quality pitch. He may, or may not, have durability. Again he's not physically mature yet. We are comparing the durability of a 21 year old kid to grown men. It's not a reasonable or fair comparison. He still has (a LOT) of time to develop his secondary offerings. He will become a better pitcher over time in this regard. Regarding his peripherals, Weathers is also outperforming them because he has the most pickoffs in the majors. Pickoffs are a statistic that isn't captured in FIP. Weathers has an Elite pickoff move to first, and he is tied with Kershaw for most pickoffs in MLB. He holds runners and gets free outs. I would expect him to continue to outperform his FIP for his (entire) career for this exact reason. I would also be willing to bet that his career WAR outperforms Gore's because of Gore's command issues. I've watched him since he's been in Fort Wayne, where he started a game and was in the mid-80s with the fastball. There's zero physical projection left on his body, he's as physically mature as he's going to get. Whether he continues to get in better shape remains to be seen, but he's not going to add more to the frame in a positive fashion. He has good command, but it's not elite by any stretch. That's what makes him more of a mid-rotation ceiling candidate than a frontline starter. Regarding his FIP....that's not a complete picture. His 19% strikeout rate, his .241 BABIP and his 7.4% SwStrk rate are serious mitigating factors. Whether he outperforms Gore or not, I wouldn't have an issue selling high on Weathers if the package was sufficient.
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 6, 2021 20:09:16 GMT -8
Weathers gave up two home runs today, both on fastballs.
His velocity is way down on his fastball from the start of the year, 90-94 mph now, versus 95-96 at the beginning of the year.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 6, 2021 20:49:48 GMT -8
Weathers gave up two home runs today, both on fastballs. His velocity is way down on his fastball from the start of the year, 90-94 mph now, versus 95-96 at the beginning of the year. He was 93-96 until the 5th, really. Kinda what he is.
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Post by junior on Jul 11, 2021 12:55:59 GMT -8
Knee injury looks nasty. Hopefully not a season-ender for Weathers. Forget about any trades right now, though. Hopefully, it's just a low-grade strain and not what it looked like in the replay …
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 11, 2021 15:44:21 GMT -8
Knee injury looks nasty. Hopefully not a season-ender for Weathers. Forget about any trades right now, though. Hopefully, it's just a low-grade strain and not what it looked like in the replay … An unfortunate situation that could have been avoided if not for yet a other Tatis error. Hope it's just hyperextended.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 11, 2021 15:48:35 GMT -8
Knee injury looks nasty. Hopefully not a season-ender for Weathers. Forget about any trades right now, though. Hopefully, it's just a low-grade strain and not what it looked like in the replay … An unfortunate situation that could have been avoided if not for yet a other Tatis error. Hope it's just hyperextended. Bingo. Nice double-clutch to show off his arm. Nice throw. But late.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 11, 2021 16:05:48 GMT -8
An unfortunate situation that could have been avoided if not for yet a other Tatis error. Hope it's just hyperextended. Bingo. Nice double-clutch to show off his arm. Nice throw. But late. Cannot believe they gave him a single on that. It's no different than bubbling the ball and IMO worse. Sounds like Weathers could have an Achilles injury, which would he even worse. Only 2 SPs not on the IL right now. Ugh. Can we ask the Rockies to leave Marquez and Gray behind for us?
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Post by sdsuball on Jul 11, 2021 23:15:05 GMT -8
Well, I guess Weathers Does have durability issues. Sigh.
We need another starter, or its going to be a lot of callups from the minors for spot starts and bullpen days.
At least the callups have done a pretty good job so far
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 12, 2021 8:27:20 GMT -8
Well, I guess Weathers Does have durability issues. Sigh. We need another starter, or its going to be a lot of callups from the minors for spot starts and bullpen days. At least the callups have done a pretty good job so far The durability issues are more nutrition, dietary and his arm than this. This was just plain bad luck. He's expected back in a few weeks.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 12, 2021 9:16:56 GMT -8
Well, I guess Weathers Does have durability issues. Sigh. We need another starter, or its going to be a lot of callups from the minors for spot starts and bullpen days. At least the callups have done a pretty good job so far The durability issues are more nutrition, dietary and his arm than this. This was just plain bad luck. He's expected back in a few weeks."Few" is a broad definition. Per Acee, quoting someone in the organization, he "has a chance to pitch again this season". Whatever that means. Hopefully "few" is closer to 3 than 5 or 6. Thankfully we have a lot of days off over the last 2 months to assist with the rotation. Sounds like its Paddack/Snell/Musgrove (or P/M/S) at Washington, then Darvish to start game 1 at Atlanta. The 20th is the next, in theory, question mark starter & would be Weathers first missed start.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 12, 2021 9:35:08 GMT -8
The durability issues are more nutrition, dietary and his arm than this. This was just plain bad luck. He's expected back in a few weeks."Few" is a broad definition. Per Acee, quoting someone in the organization, he "has a chance to pitch again this season". Whatever that means. Hopefully "few" is closer to 3 than 5 or 6. Thankfully we have a lot of days off over the last 2 months to assist with the rotation. Sounds like its Paddack/Snell/Musgrove (or P/M/S) at Washington, then Darvish to start game 1 at Atlanta. The 20th is the next, in theory, question mark starter & would be Weathers first missed start. If Darvish went on the IL on Sunday, he won't be eligible to pitch in game 1 against the Braves.
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Post by sdcoug on Jul 12, 2021 9:48:20 GMT -8
"Few" is a broad definition. Per Acee, quoting someone in the organization, he "has a chance to pitch again this season". Whatever that means. Hopefully "few" is closer to 3 than 5 or 6. Thankfully we have a lot of days off over the last 2 months to assist with the rotation. Sounds like its Paddack/Snell/Musgrove (or P/M/S) at Washington, then Darvish to start game 1 at Atlanta. The 20th is the next, in theory, question mark starter & would be Weathers first missed start. If Darvish went on the IL on Sunday, he won't be eligible to pitch in game 1 against the Braves. Since he hadn't pitched since the 8th I'm pretty sure they can make it retroactive to the 9th. He's noted as out "until at least the 19th", which would be that Monday. Anyway, it's just what I saw mentioned by someone - Acee or the broadcast crew.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 12, 2021 10:00:11 GMT -8
If Darvish went on the IL on Sunday, he won't be eligible to pitch in game 1 against the Braves. Since he hadn't pitched since the 8th I'm pretty sure they can make it retroactive to the 9th. He's noted as out "until at least the 19th", which would be that Monday. Anyway, it's just what I saw mentioned by someone - Acee or the broadcast crew. Good point. Forgot about the "retroactive" part.
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