EVT Opinion: The new college football playoff is a sham

[aztecpaulg]

www.eastvillagetimes.com/evt-opinion-the-new-college-football-playoff-system-is-a-sham/

Here's an article I wrote about the newest rumored changes to the college football playoff. Hope you enjoy it.

[azteccc]

Thank you for the article and opinion! But personally, eh. As it currently stands, SDSU can never and will never win a national championship. The discussion is completely off the table, making us an automatic lower class program in any conversation about national relevance. If we could go three years in a row undefeated and the best outcome would be beating a 3rd place P5 school in a good bowl game, we could never be nationally relevant.

Any playoff that allows a team like ours to go undefeated and have the opportunity to win a national championship is a step in the right direction. Flawed? Of course. But better? Absolutely. We would have the chance to no longer be an afterthought. I do wholeheartedly agree with the hosting/home games point - make that ish neutral site.

[tonatiuh]

Why Soitenly it is! You didn't think that the Powers of Division I were going to let go of their prestige, money, and power that easy did you? Until they are
forced to give it up they will always find a way to stay in control!

[sdsustoner]

Of course it is! Give the poors of G5 the false hope of secruing 1 of the 12 spots!

This is a brilliant move to get people watching the playoffs again and to increase the odds it isn't the same 2 teams again.

Lack of veiwership means less money

That's all this is about.

My stupid @rse is gonna watch too 😆

[sdcoug]

I'll take this new format in a HEARTBEAT over either the BCS or the prior 4-team CFP. This DOES give the best G5 conference champion an automatic bid, and it DOES give another G5 champion a chance as well. Not that 2020 is the norm, but Cincy would have hosted a 1st round game, and Coastal Carolina would have played at ND. I'll take that any day. In 2018 UCF would have hosted a 1st round game. It's not the norm, but it's now possible. As is the best G5 ends up facing a nice bowl that's just for show with zero meaning.

It's not a "fair" system, but it never has been. What's not fair isn't the playoff, it's the $25M+ gap in TV revenue that separates the top 5 from the bottom 5 conferences. It's not Bama or Clemson getting in the finals nearly every year, it's the Oregon States & Arizona's getting 10x the revenue we do. The playoff doesn't do anything to fix that, but it doesn't hurt it as well. Now recruits will know they can go to a SDSU, Cincy & Coastal Carolina & actually have a shot at winning it all, even if it's the equivalent of a 15 or 16-seed in the NCAA tournament. It's a sliver of hope, but it's better than no hope at all. It may help keep some players home. Plus, worst case, they know if they run the table they'll have a good chance of actually playing a good (#5 seed) P5 program in a MEANINGFUL game.

I do hope the Quarterfinals are played on neutral fields in bowl match-ups, but IMO the 12-team playoff is a pretty good set-up for the MWC and SDSU. It will never get to the point where all 10 conference champs received an invite, but its definitely a step in the right direction & I definitely wouldn't call it a "sham".

PS. I don't think there's any chance the P5's get rid of their championship games. Way too much money involved, no chance at balanced schedules is 4 of the 5 conferences, and TV contracts have already been signed in some cases. 

[aztecpaulg]

Haha. The new system is like investing in lottery tickets. It's a great investment for the person who wins. All the rest only get the excitement of watching the balls fall from the machine.

The perspective of the article was more systemic. Less G5 teams will play in marquee bowls than under the BCS or CPF, and there will be less chance the P5 gets embarrassed on the field.

We'll see if history repeats itself, but I'm predicting the goal posts will get moved for the G5 just like it always is, resulting in G5 teams rarely, if ever, getting to host games.

As for a State specific scenario: If State has the best season in it's existence and is undefeated and has to travel to a two loss Utah, I'm not sure how that would raise the programs national profile more than say playing in a Fiesta Bowl against that same Utah team.

[goaztecs]

You make some great points which will likely all be correct. The last few years I’ve actually been saying that I prefer the computers to the committee’s opinion. Are all those people even watching college football all day on Saturday like me lol? So how many G5 teams can get into the 12 team playoff? I’d be surprised if there is ever more than two.

[goaztecs]

Jun 17, 2021 9:27:44 GMT -8 sdcoug said:

I'll take this new format in a HEARTBEAT over either the BCS or the prior 4-team CFP. This DOES give the best G5 conference champion an automatic bid, and it DOES give another G5 champion a chance as well. Not that 2020 is the norm, but Cincy would have hosted a 1st round game, and Coastal Carolina would have played at ND. I'll take that any day. In 2018 UCF would have hosted a 1st round game. It's not the norm, but it's now possible. As is the best G5 ends up facing a nice bowl that's just for show with zero meaning.

It's not a "fair" system, but it never has been. What's not fair isn't the playoff, it's the $25M+ gap in TV revenue that separates the top 5 from the bottom 5 conferences. It's not Bama or Clemson getting in the finals nearly every year, it's the Oregon States & Arizona's getting 10x the revenue we do. The playoff doesn't do anything to fix that, but it doesn't hurt it as well. Now recruits will know they can go to a SDSU, Cincy & Coastal Carolina & actually have a shot at winning it all, even if it's the equivalent of a 15 or 16-seed in the NCAA tournament. It's a sliver of hope, but it's better than no hope at all. It may help keep some players home. Plus, worst case, they know if they run the table they'll have a good chance of actually playing a good (#5 seed) P5 program in a MEANINGFUL game.

I do hope the Quarterfinals are played on neutral fields in bowl match-ups, but IMO the 12-team playoff is a pretty good set-up for the MWC and SDSU. It will never get to the point where all 10 conference champs received an invite, but its definitely a step in the right direction & I definitely wouldn't call it a "sham".

PS. I don't think there's any chance the P5's get rid of their championship games. Way too much money involved, no chance at balanced schedules is 4 of the 5 conferences, and TV contracts have already been signed in some cases. 

You’re correct Ken. No way P5’s will get rid of conference championship games

[sdcoug]

Jun 17, 2021 10:22:22 GMT -8 aztecpaulg said:

Haha. The new system is like investing in lottery tickets. It's a great investment for the person who wins. All the rest only get the excitement of watching the balls fall from the machine.

The perspective of the article was more systemic. Less G5 teams will play in marquee bowls than under the BCS or CPF, and there will be less chance the P5 gets embarrassed on the field.

We'll see if history repeats itself, but I'm predicting the goal posts will get moved for the G5 just like it always is, resulting in G5 teams rarely, if ever, getting to host games.

As for a State specific scenario: If State has the best season in it's existence and is undefeated and has to travel to a two loss Utah, I'm not sure how that would raise the programs national profile more than say playing in a Fiesta Bowl against that same Utah team.

How will fewer G5s play in marque bowls? Right now only ONE team is guaranteed of doing so anyway, and while meaningful for the G5 its typically a let down for the P5 team. When UCF beat Auburn in the Peach a few years ago that was a meaningless game for Auburn. They'd just lost the SEC championship in the same stadium, and lost a chance to play for the title. Play that in a few years in this playoff and there's more meaning to the game.

In your Utah example, that means they a) didn't win the P12 and get in the Rose Bowl, and b) have no shot at being national champs.

Playing a Utah in this new format would have more meaning for both teams. Being in a national title tournament is definitely good for SDSU or any G5. Now imagine beating Utah and having yet another huge game, compared to your season being over, win or lose.

The 12 team playoff is definitely a good thing unless you only view it from a pessimistic viewpoint. I think coaches and administrators will tell you they prefer to have a chance at a championship rather than the best case being a consolation bowl, even if it is the Fiesta or Peach.

[aztecpaulg]

sdcoug, love the insight as usual. Lots to unpack for sure.

... There are six bowls that are part of the CFP. All of them would be used as part of the playoff. That means that unless a G5 team wins, they will not be in a BCS type bowl. Since 1998, a G5 has automatic access to the money and prestige of those bowls. If being the one school that beats out the rest of the G5 teams wasn't hard enough, the new system just added an extra hurdle. Once the new 12-CFP is adopted, likely for the first time in 25 years, a G5 will not be in one of those bowls. Even if the G5 does very well throughout the life of the 12 -CPF, there will be some years where they will lose in the first round, so there will be fewer overall G5 teams in marquee bowls.

... The idea that when P5 schools lose to G5 schools in major bowls it's because they were not interested in the bowl is not true. It's part of the Myth of the Power Conferences. If anything getting to carry the mantle of the P5 against the G5, they are more motivated. The coaches are good enough to get their teams to show up.

... In my example of Utah, the Utes may or may not have won the Pac 12, but they are in the playoff. They can still win the NC, and being the host against a G5 team, they would be favored to go to the Rose Bowl or whichever bowl they would be slotted to go to.

... Again I am taking a big picture view of it. The 12-CFP will likely double the money of the current system, and as a percentage, less of that will be shared with the G5 overall. It could be great for one special team, but the money is already so in favor of the P5 and will be even greater under this new system, that the odds of a G5 team making a semi-final run will be less than it is now.

... I think the first round of the playoff will be played the same weekend as the Army vs Navy game, so win or lose, the teams will still go to a bowl.

[standiego]

Would agree with Coug -

We need to be realists - In football where you need so many more players , Offense , Defense , Special teams there is a very wide gap between the P5 and G5 . You need as many high quality recruits as you can get to have a top rated team . Plus reserves , many times a G5 maybe able to hang with a P5 for say a half but as the game extends into Q3 and Q4 making you play more reserves the P5 gains additional advantage . This is a prime example why P5 conferences do NOT want to elevate a school say SDSU or Houston.... to P5 level . If you are P5 you get more money to spend on things and even more important better recruits.

So for the most part whatever playoff system is set up - it will primarily be more advantageous for the P5 schools . P5 get more money and are able to produce better teams especially the higher tier schools . P5 schools not only expect to get

There was little chance of a G5 getting into the 4 team playoff . With 12 teams there is at least " A Chance " slim as it maybe . So you can at least feel you have a shot at it . But most likely the G5 teams Might get 1 team in . While the other P5 conferences will be arguing to get at least 2 or 3 .

It is a basic reality of the difference between P5 and G5 conferences for football.

OOC again becomes quite important for the G5 - need to try to get a W or 2 in OOC against the P5 - if they choose to schedule you - then be dominate in their conference and hopeful their G5 total record is the best of all the G5

The TV networks are going to have to pay big money , so they want the best teams , for the most part that means P5 teams

So we can call it a Sham or just a reality of the difference between P5 and G5

[sdsuball]

Jun 17, 2021 13:36:37 GMT -8 standiego said:

The TV networks are going to have to pay big money , so they want the best teams , for the most part that means P5 teams

So we can call it a Sham or just a reality of the difference between P5 and G5

I mean it's both. Those differences are reinforced by excluding G5 teams from OOC games unless they have to go on the road, and excluding them from the playoffs.

The P5 has more money and better teams as well.

It reinforces itself through both winning, and the structural advantages of P5 vs. G5.

Anyone in a P5 conference can win a national championship if they go undefeated - not true of G5.

But, a bigger playoff field means more opportunity for G5 teams.

The homefield advantage for 5-8 and the byes for 1-4 are bull$#!+, but I guess that beggars can't be choosers.

I think that going back to the computer model might be a good thing too for football. Nice thing about basketball is a huge field, long tournament and no home field advantage takes away a lot of the power that the selection committee has in determining a national champion.

With that in mind I think that a 16 team tournament - Top 8 Conferences + 8 at large, all neutral site games would have been a much better way of doing it.

[sdsustoner]

In this new world, the old rules of sportsmanship are done!

As a G5 what matters is how much hype you can generate after an OOC win vs P5s to bait them into playing you at home

Because this world encourages the P5s to duck & hide now.

So you run up the score & talk trash all over media vs P5 schools. Make them your public b1tch. Become a WWE type hype machine.

Or fall away into the wasteland of the tiny sliver of hope. Boomers might hate this, but this is the world they created.

[sdcoug]

Jun 17, 2021 13:13:32 GMT -8 aztecpaulg said:

sdcoug, love the insight as usual. Lots to unpack for sure.

... There are six bowls that are part of the CFP. All of them would be used as part of the playoff. That means that unless a G5 team wins, they will not be in a BCS type bowl. Since 1998, a G5 has automatic access to the money and prestige of those bowls. If being the one school that beats out the rest of the G5 teams wasn't hard enough, the new system just added an extra hurdle. Once the new 12-CFP is adopted, likely for the first time in 25 years, a G5 will not be in one of those bowls. Even if the G5 does very well throughout the life of the 12 -CPF, there will be some years where they will lose in the first round, so there will be fewer overall G5 teams in marquee bowls.

... The idea that when P5 schools lose to G5 schools in major bowls it's because they were not interested in the bowl is not true. It's part of the Myth of the Power Conferences. If anything getting to carry the mantle of the P5 against the G5, they are more motivated. The coaches are good enough to get their teams to show up.

... In my example of Utah, the Utes may or may not have won the Pac 12, but they are in the playoff. They can still win the NC, and being the host against a G5 team, they would be favored to go to the Rose Bowl or whichever bowl they would be slotted to go to.

... Again I am taking a big picture view of it. The 12-CFP will likely double the money of the current system, and as a percentage, less of that will be shared with the G5 overall. It could be great for one special team, but the money is already so in favor of the P5 and will be even greater under this new system, that the odds of a G5 team making a semi-final run will be less than it is now.

... I think the first round of the playoff will be played the same weekend as the Army vs Navy game, so win or lose, the teams will still go to a bowl.

You have a very pessimistic viewpoint. Again, Cincy would have hosted a game this past year, and they would have been favored to play in a major bowl (assuming they keep the bowl alignment for the quarters). That could as easily be the case EVERY YEAR, just as much as the G5 would be excluded. It's also very possible a P5 conference like the P12 could be omitted from any quarterfinal games.

Will completely agree to disagree with you about a P5 team in the old format is usually as motivated as the G5 team! It's not a myth, it's human nature. There are many examples of one team being more motivated & excited than the other team in bowls, and there's no denying a G5 is more likely to get up for a P5 than the other way around. This is especially true when in the past that team is the LOSING team in their conference title game, and in the process they lost out on the possibility of playing in a much bigger game (i.e. 4 team CFP vs. a Peach bowl; a Fiesta vs. Rose Bowl, etc.). 

Your comment about Utah IS my point exactly. In the old format, they were NOT in the playoff. They were eliminated by losing the conference title game. In this format they actually still be alive for the national title game, and thus their 1st game is much more meaningful than playing in the Fiesta with no chance at a the title. 

Also vehemently disagree with you when you say "the odds of a G5 making a semi-final run will be less than it is now". There's virtually ZERO CHANCE a G5 can make a semi-final run now. NONE. In the new format, while it's still a challenge there's actually a shot. Using last year as an example, a G5 team like Cincy would need to win round 1 at home, which puts them into the 8 team (major bowl tier) playoff with ONE exception - another win puts them in the Semi's. As it is now, a) we may not be placed in 1 of the top 4 bowl games (it could be the 5th or even 6th top game) , and b) even if we win we're done. No semis. 

We'll just have to agree to disagree about this one. The new playoff is much better than what's currently available to G5. Not perfect by any means, but a significant upgrade. 

[standiego]

If they do go to 12 team Playoff and formalize the criteria for selection then every school and conference knows what it needs to do to get in .

Expansion was never going to insure there were going to be more G5 schools

the playoffs is a big money situation - for teams , conferences and coaches ( who likely will ask for a bonus in their contract for getting in and winning games ).

So it also means teams will adjust their OOC determining the type of opponents that would assist them most in getting in.
as Couug suggested some conferences may want to go back to only 8 conference games and the quality of opponents they may want to face in their OOC .

Expanding to 12 teams likely means there could be 1 G5 team in the 12 but nothing is guaranteed - We are talking big money so as usual most likely what ever is best for the P5 and the TV networks

[sdcoug]

Jun 18, 2021 13:15:29 GMT -8 standiego said:

If they do go to 12 team Playoff and formalize the criteria for selection then every school and conference knows what it needs to do to get in .

Expansion was never going to insure there were going to be more G5 schools

the playoffs is a big money situation - for teams , conferences and coaches ( who likely will ask for a bonus in their contract for getting in and winning games ).

So it also means teams will adjust their OOC determining the type of opponents that would assist them most in getting in.
as Couug suggested some conferences may want to go back to only 8 conference games and the quality of opponents they may want to face in their OOC .

Expanding to 12 teams likely means there could be 1 G5 team in the 12 but nothing is guaranteed - We are talking big money so as usual most likely what ever is best for the P5 and the TV networks

False. Expanding to 12 teams with top 6 conference champions included GUARANTEES at least 1 G5 team is among 12 team playoff. It's the reason they went with the 6 conference champ specification. 

SOS will always play a role in selection, so even if they (P12, B12, B1G) revert to an 8-team conference schedule (or 1 division conference) if they want a) any chance of being among top 4, and/or b) a chance of beating out another team in their conference for 1 of the 6 at-large berths, they're going to have to have quality wins. It isn't going to be any different than the NCAA selection committee. If you see the P12 revert to an 8 game schedule, which I think is extremely unlikely, the positive side is most are still going to need 3 non-P5 games to fill out their schedule, if not 4 for some teams. 

[sdsuball]

Jun 18, 2021 13:30:20 GMT -8 sdcoug said:

Jun 18, 2021 13:15:29 GMT -8 standiego said:

If they do go to 12 team Playoff and formalize the criteria for selection then every school and conference knows what it needs to do to get in .

Expansion was never going to insure there were going to be more G5 schools

the playoffs is a big money situation - for teams , conferences and coaches ( who likely will ask for a bonus in their contract for getting in and winning games ).

So it also means teams will adjust their OOC determining the type of opponents that would assist them most in getting in.
as Couug suggested some conferences may want to go back to only 8 conference games and the quality of opponents they may want to face in their OOC .

Expanding to 12 teams likely means there could be 1 G5 team in the 12 but nothing is guaranteed - We are talking big money so as usual most likely what ever is best for the P5 and the TV networks

False. Expanding to 12 teams with top 6 conference champions included GUARANTEES at least 1 G5 team is among 12 team playoff. It's the reason they went with the 6 conference champ specification. 

SOS will always play a role in selection, so even if they (P12, B12, B1G) revert to an 8-team conference schedule (or 1 division conference) if they want a) any chance of being among top 4, and/or b) a chance of beating out another team in their conference for 1 of the 6 at-large berths, they're going to have to have quality wins. It isn't going to be any different than the NCAA selection committee. If you see the P12 revert to an 8 game schedule, which I think is extremely unlikely, the positive side is most are still going to need 3 non-P5 games to fill out their schedule, if not 4 for some teams. 

What if P5 schools shrink the number of G5 OOC games that they play? How will the committee judge G5 SOS if the P5 no longer gives the (good) G5 team's games?

[sdsustoner]

Jun 19, 2021 19:38:29 GMT -8 sdsuball said:

Jun 18, 2021 13:30:20 GMT -8 sdcoug said:

False. Expanding to 12 teams with top 6 conference champions included GUARANTEES at least 1 G5 team is among 12 team playoff. It's the reason they went with the 6 conference champ specification. 

SOS will always play a role in selection, so even if they (P12, B12, B1G) revert to an 8-team conference schedule (or 1 division conference) if they want a) any chance of being among top 4, and/or b) a chance of beating out another team in their conference for 1 of the 6 at-large berths, they're going to have to have quality wins. It isn't going to be any different than the NCAA selection committee. If you see the P12 revert to an 8 game schedule, which I think is extremely unlikely, the positive side is most are still going to need 3 non-P5 games to fill out their schedule, if not 4 for some teams. 

What if P5 schools shrink the number of G5 OOC games that they play? How will the committee judge G5 SOS if the P5 no longer gives the (good) G5 team's games?

This is exactly what will happen. Again, why it's imperative G5s run up the score and WWE hype every chance it can get.

[MontezumaPhil]

Jun 19, 2021 19:38:29 GMT -8 sdsuball said:

Jun 18, 2021 13:30:20 GMT -8 sdcoug said:

False. Expanding to 12 teams with top 6 conference champions included GUARANTEES at least 1 G5 team is among 12 team playoff. It's the reason they went with the 6 conference champ specification. 

SOS will always play a role in selection, so even if they (P12, B12, B1G) revert to an 8-team conference schedule (or 1 division conference) if they want a) any chance of being among top 4, and/or b) a chance of beating out another team in their conference for 1 of the 6 at-large berths, they're going to have to have quality wins. It isn't going to be any different than the NCAA selection committee. If you see the P12 revert to an 8 game schedule, which I think is extremely unlikely, the positive side is most are still going to need 3 non-P5 games to fill out their schedule, if not 4 for some teams. 

What if P5 schools shrink the number of G5 OOC games that they play? How will the committee judge G5 SOS if the P5 no longer gives the (good) G5 team's games?

I suspect that is just what will happen. The P5 will tend, more than they do already, to play among each other for non-cons. I don't see the Sun Belt, for example, gaining a windfall of good OOCs against the SEC and Big 10. Most years the P5 will likely secure five of the six champions' slots in the field, but they could make that a virtual certainty by snubbing the G5 in September.

One obvious solution to the problem would be for a G5 league to shore up its SOS internally. If you can't prove yourself against teams from P5 leagues, make your own conference as strong as it can be. Become known as the cream of the G5.

There is currently only one conference that has a realistic chance to do that, which is why I believe the topic of potential realignment will not be going away.

[sdcoug]

Jun 19, 2021 19:38:29 GMT -8 sdsuball said:

Jun 18, 2021 13:30:20 GMT -8 sdcoug said:

False. Expanding to 12 teams with top 6 conference champions included GUARANTEES at least 1 G5 team is among 12 team playoff. It's the reason they went with the 6 conference champ specification. 

SOS will always play a role in selection, so even if they (P12, B12, B1G) revert to an 8-team conference schedule (or 1 division conference) if they want a) any chance of being among top 4, and/or b) a chance of beating out another team in their conference for 1 of the 6 at-large berths, they're going to have to have quality wins. It isn't going to be any different than the NCAA selection committee. If you see the P12 revert to an 8 game schedule, which I think is extremely unlikely, the positive side is most are still going to need 3 non-P5 games to fill out their schedule, if not 4 for some teams. 

What if P5 schools shrink the number of G5 OOC games that they play? How will the committee judge G5 SOS if the P5 no longer gives the (good) G5 team's games?

Even if that happens, which I don't think will happen, a G5 is still guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Something not currently available to us.

Personally I think the P5s are more likely to shrink the # of P5s they play overall than expand it.