|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 6, 2021 22:11:07 GMT -8
It's one game...so it's a stretch to say anything about his form. Whether I like him or not is irrelevant. He's been largely awful across the board on both sides of the ball for a long, long time. There's absolutely nothing to indicate that he's about to turn a corner from a statistical standpoint, unlike a guy like Manny, for example. Manny since June 1st, not including tonight, has an OPS of .974 and is crushing the baseball at a extreme clip, while raising his walk rate and lowering his strikeout rate. One game? I'm not talking about one game. He's around 5-11 with something like 4 rbi's in the last 4 to 5 games. I know enough not to say something like that after one game. It looks like he's getting his stroke back to me, and the radio guys noticed it as well if you take into consideration the last four or so games. If you can't say that your glad that he's starting to come around again, and you can't say anything good about it, then you obviously have an agenda against him. Put the team past your dislikes, if you can. Also, I would NEVER compare him to a Manny Machado. That's simply ridiculous. I wasn't comparing the two, I was comparing the statistical baselines. To his credit, Hosmer is 15-50 over his last 2 weeks or so, but he has one extra base hit in his last 40 plate appearances and 3 extra base hits in his last 24 games. That's not going to cut it at this level.
|
|
|
Post by sdsuball on Jul 6, 2021 23:14:44 GMT -8
One game? I'm not talking about one game. He's around 5-11 with something like 4 rbi's in the last 4 to 5 games. I know enough not to say something like that after one game. It looks like he's getting his stroke back to me, and the radio guys noticed it as well if you take into consideration the last four or so games. If you can't say that your glad that he's starting to come around again, and you can't say anything good about it, then you obviously have an agenda against him. Put the team past your dislikes, if you can. Also, I would NEVER compare him to a Manny Machado. That's simply ridiculous. I wasn't comparing the two, I was comparing the statistical baselines. To his credit, Hosmer is 15-50 over his last 2 weeks or so, but he has one extra base hit in his last 40 plate appearances and 3 extra base hits in his last 24 games. That's not going to cut it at this level. Hosmer is hitting the ball hard, but he hits too many ground balls to get extra base hits regularly. Needs to get a better launch angle on his balls so that he can drive them
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Jul 7, 2021 9:45:15 GMT -8
I wasn't comparing the two, I was comparing the statistical baselines. To his credit, Hosmer is 15-50 over his last 2 weeks or so, but he has one extra base hit in his last 40 plate appearances and 3 extra base hits in his last 24 games. That's not going to cut it at this level. Hosmer is hitting the ball hard, but he hits too many ground balls to get extra base hits regularly. Needs to get a better launch angle on his balls so that he can drive them Hosmer has always been a 25-35 doubles guy, in full seasons--at least through 2019. This season, his numbers have dropped noticeably for all XBH. His line drive percentage is the third lowest for him in the last 9 seasons. At this point, I'm happy if Hosmer can even get a base hit with RISP. And with all that--he is still on a pace to have around 75 RBI, and is currently 3rd on the team in RBI.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 7, 2021 10:54:23 GMT -8
As I surmised, Dennis Lin said the Padres are slowly moving towards Hosmer's role being reduced as he's being sat now against right-handed pitching more frequently.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Jul 7, 2021 11:02:36 GMT -8
As I surmised, Dennis Lin said the Padres are slowly moving towards Hosmer's role being reduced as he's being sat now against right-handed pitching more frequently. Maybe Hosmer will opt out of his contract as soon as he can. One can only hope.
|
|
|
Post by sdcoug on Jul 7, 2021 11:38:08 GMT -8
It's one game...so it's a stretch to say anything about his form. Whether I like him or not is irrelevant. He's been largely awful across the board on both sides of the ball for a long, long time. There's absolutely nothing to indicate that he's about to turn a corner from a statistical standpoint, unlike a guy like Manny, for example. Manny since June 1st, not including tonight, has an OPS of .974 and is crushing the baseball at a extreme clip, while raising his walk rate and lowering his strikeout rate. One game? I'm not talking about one game. He's around 5-11 with something like 4 rbi's in the last 4 to 5 games. I know enough not to say something like that after one game. It looks like he's getting his stroke back to me, and the radio guys noticed it as well if you take into consideration the last four or so games. If you can't say that your glad that he's starting to come around again, and you can't say anything good about it, then you obviously have an agenda against him. Put the team past your dislikes, if you can. Also, I would NEVER compare him to a Manny Machado. That's simply ridiculous. Over the past 7 days (6 games), he's .350/.381/.400/.781, so he's definitely getting on base. The power's not there, but if he's still 3rd to Manny & Myers in RBI during that stretch. We're never going to be able to say he's been worth the money we've given him over the years, and probably not going to be able to say he's worth $20M this year. But if you ignore the money & just look at what he's capable of bringing, I agree. I'd be EXTREMELY excited if he plays the rest of the season anywhere like he produced in April. Myers is starting to revert to his early numbers, so hopefully that trend continues for Hosmer as well! The big question is do you bank on them doing so, given how streaky both are, or do you move on? With Profar finally getting on track and hopefully Nola coming back at least we'll have a little more flexibility than we've had which should, in theory, give us some time to decide!
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 7, 2021 12:20:25 GMT -8
As I surmised, Dennis Lin said the Padres are slowly moving towards Hosmer's role being reduced as he's being sat now against right-handed pitching more frequently. Maybe Hosmer will opt out of his contract as soon as he can. One can only hope. Highly unlikely because I doubt he does better than 3/39 on the open market. And that's two plus years away.
|
|
|
Post by johneaztec on Jul 7, 2021 12:27:46 GMT -8
One game? I'm not talking about one game. He's around 5-11 with something like 4 rbi's in the last 4 to 5 games. I know enough not to say something like that after one game. It looks like he's getting his stroke back to me, and the radio guys noticed it as well if you take into consideration the last four or so games. If you can't say that your glad that he's starting to come around again, and you can't say anything good about it, then you obviously have an agenda against him. Put the team past your dislikes, if you can. Also, I would NEVER compare him to a Manny Machado. That's simply ridiculous. Over the past 7 days (6 games), he's .350/.381/.400/.781, so he's definitely getting on base. The power's not there, but if he's still 3rd to Manny & Myers in RBI during that stretch. We're never going to be able to say he's been worth the money we've given him over the years, and probably not going to be able to say he's worth $20M this year. But if you ignore the money & just look at what he's capable of bringing, I agree. I'd be EXTREMELY excited if he plays the rest of the season anywhere like he produced in April. Myers is starting to revert to his early numbers, so hopefully that trend continues for Hosmer as well! The big question is do you bank on them doing so, given how streaky both are, or do you move on? With Profar finally getting on track and hopefully Nola coming back at least we'll have a little more flexibility than we've had which should, in theory, give us some time to decide! I completely agree with all of this.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Jul 7, 2021 13:07:34 GMT -8
Maybe Hosmer will opt out of his contract as soon as he can. One can only hope. Highly unlikely because I doubt he does better than 3/39 on the open market. And that's two plus years away. Like I said, one can only hope. And...he can opt out after next year. But like you said, it is highly unlikely.
|
|
|
Post by johneaztec on Jul 7, 2021 13:31:48 GMT -8
Hosmer is hitting the ball hard, but he hits too many ground balls to get extra base hits regularly. Needs to get a better launch angle on his balls so that he can drive them Hosmer has always been a 25-35 doubles guy, in full seasons--at least through 2019. This season, his numbers have dropped noticeably for all XBH. His line drive percentage is the third lowest for him in the last 9 seasons. At this point, I'm happy if Hosmer can even get a base hit with RISP. And with all that--he is still on a pace to have around 75 RBI, and is currently 3rd on the team in RBI. I'm hoping Hosmer can produce rbi's at this rate. 75 rbi's would be fine. Hosmer has not produced at what his contract is worth, we all know that, but if he can be a clutch rbi guy at this point and stay somewhat at his current pace, that would be good.
|
|
|
Post by sdcoug on Jul 7, 2021 14:20:54 GMT -8
Hosmer has always been a 25-35 doubles guy, in full seasons--at least through 2019. This season, his numbers have dropped noticeably for all XBH. His line drive percentage is the third lowest for him in the last 9 seasons. At this point, I'm happy if Hosmer can even get a base hit with RISP. And with all that--he is still on a pace to have around 75 RBI, and is currently 3rd on the team in RBI. I'm hoping Hosmer can produce rbi's at this rate. 75 rbi's would be fine. Hosmer has not produced at what his contract is worth, we all know that, but if he can be a clutch rbi guy at this point and stay somewhat at his current pace, that would be good. The best thing is we don't need him to bat 3rd, 4th or 5th, so if he can bat 6th (vs. righties) or 7th (vs. lefties), and occasionally sit for Profar/Kim against lefties, but deliver .250/.330/.400 & .275+ with RISP I'd be OK with that. If this were 2-3 years ago where we needed more production from him it'd be different.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 7, 2021 14:30:40 GMT -8
I'm hoping Hosmer can produce rbi's at this rate. 75 rbi's would be fine. Hosmer has not produced at what his contract is worth, we all know that, but if he can be a clutch rbi guy at this point and stay somewhat at his current pace, that would be good. The best thing is we don't need him to bat 3rd, 4th or 5th, so if he can bat 6th (vs. righties) or 7th (vs. lefties), and occasionally sit for Profar/Kim against lefties, but deliver .250/.330/.400 & .275+ with RISP I'd be OK with that. If this were 2-3 years ago where we needed more production from him it'd be different. I don't think this is truly accurate - The offensive consistency has been really lacking. Myers and Hosmer are the two main keys to that supplementary piece and you really can't have both struggling to produce at a well below average clip. You need 4 or 5 really key producers to win a championship, on average.
|
|
|
Post by johneaztec on Jul 7, 2021 14:50:50 GMT -8
The best thing is we don't need him to bat 3rd, 4th or 5th, so if he can bat 6th (vs. righties) or 7th (vs. lefties), and occasionally sit for Profar/Kim against lefties, but deliver .250/.330/.400 & .275+ with RISP I'd be OK with that. If this were 2-3 years ago where we needed more production from him it'd be different. I don't think this is truly accurate - The offensive consistency has been really lacking. Myers and Hosmer are the two main keys to that supplementary piece and you really can't have both struggling to produce at a well below average clip. You need 4 or 5 really key producers to win a championship, on average. This is why we need for those two to keep their current pace, or close to it.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 7, 2021 14:57:59 GMT -8
I don't think this is truly accurate - The offensive consistency has been really lacking. Myers and Hosmer are the two main keys to that supplementary piece and you really can't have both struggling to produce at a well below average clip. You need 4 or 5 really key producers to win a championship, on average. This is why we need for those two to keep their current pace, or close to it. Their current pace is still far, far below even league average. Both are UP to an 88 wRC+. At some point, a person needs to detach from small sample size recency bias and lean on the data we have for the last three seasons to get a truer indicator. Myers at least offers power and a glove in the outfield that isn't a waste of space. He's also only controlled for one more season. It's why the Joey Gallo to San Diego rumors have so much helium behind them.
|
|
|
Post by sdcoug on Jul 7, 2021 15:18:43 GMT -8
The best thing is we don't need him to bat 3rd, 4th or 5th, so if he can bat 6th (vs. righties) or 7th (vs. lefties), and occasionally sit for Profar/Kim against lefties, but deliver .250/.330/.400 & .275+ with RISP I'd be OK with that. If this were 2-3 years ago where we needed more production from him it'd be different. I don't think this is truly accurate - The offensive consistency has been really lacking. Myers and Hosmer are the two main keys to that supplementary piece and you really can't have both struggling to produce at a well below average clip. You need 4 or 5 really key producers to win a championship, on average.Pham, Tatis, Jake, Manny & Grisham, to name a few. If you get production from either Hosmer OR Myers your line-up is deeper. If you look around the league, there are a lot of teams with holes in the line-up 5-8. The Dodgers won last years world series with Smith (DH; .564), Bellinger (.481), Taylor (.641), Pollack (.619) & Barnes (.651) all having relatively low OPS against Tampa. You don't need 7 guys delivering to win it all. Sure, we'd love to be deep 1-8 and Hosmer & Myers much more consistent, but if they're .250/.330/.400/.730+ & can deliver in the clutch we should be fine. They're not batting 3/4; they're batting 6/7 for the part.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 7, 2021 15:23:17 GMT -8
I don't think this is truly accurate - The offensive consistency has been really lacking. Myers and Hosmer are the two main keys to that supplementary piece and you really can't have both struggling to produce at a well below average clip. You need 4 or 5 really key producers to win a championship, on average.Pham, Tatis, Jake, Manny & Grisham, to name a few. If you get production from either Hosmer OR Myers your line-up is deeper. If you look around the league, there are a lot of teams with holes in the line-up 5-8. The Dodgers won last years world series with Smith (DH; .564), Bellinger (.481), Taylor (.641), Pollack (.619) & Barnes (.651) all having relatively low OPS against Tampa. You don't need 7 guys delivering to win it all. Sure, we'd love to be deep 1-8 and Hosmer & Myers much more consistent, but if they're .250/.330/.400/.730+ & can deliver in the clutch we should be fine. They're not batting 3/4; they're batting 6/7 for the part. Have to disagree on this one pretty heavily. Consistency is a big thing and this team hasn't shown to have it in terms of production.
|
|
|
Post by johneaztec on Jul 7, 2021 16:53:05 GMT -8
This is why we need for those two to keep their current pace, or close to it. Their current pace is still far, far below even league average. Both are UP to an 88 wRC+. At some point, a person needs to detach from small sample size recency bias and lean on the data we have for the last three seasons to get a truer indicator. Myers at least offers power and a glove in the outfield that isn't a waste of space. He's also only controlled for one more season. It's why the Joey Gallo to San Diego rumors have so much helium behind them. I'm in the here and now, for the moment. You know, the what have you done for me lately, scenario. And lately, those two have produced decently and I'm hoping it continues.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 7, 2021 18:44:21 GMT -8
Their current pace is still far, far below even league average. Both are UP to an 88 wRC+. At some point, a person needs to detach from small sample size recency bias and lean on the data we have for the last three seasons to get a truer indicator. Myers at least offers power and a glove in the outfield that isn't a waste of space. He's also only controlled for one more season. It's why the Joey Gallo to San Diego rumors have so much helium behind them. I'm in the here and now, for the moment. You know, the what have you done for me lately, scenario. And lately, those two have produced decently and I'm hoping it continues. Then you're not seeing the big picture. And that kinda matters...as Hosmer has an awful at-bat with the bases loaded. Regression is an awful thing. Current form is cool, but a cursory glance will tell you that he's not going to hit .300 for any meaningful stretch of time. The approach is horrendous.
|
|
|
Post by johneaztec on Jul 7, 2021 18:53:09 GMT -8
I'm in the here and now, for the moment. You know, the what have you done for me lately, scenario. And lately, those two have produced decently and I'm hoping it continues. Then you're not seeing the big picture. And that kinda matters...as Hosmer has an awful at-bat with the bases loaded. Regression is an awful thing. Current form is cool, but a cursory glance will tell you that he's not going to hit .300 for any meaningful stretch of time. The approach is horrendous. I absolutely see the big picture. I happen to be focusing on the exact present time. Is that ok with you? Also, should I chime in every time he has a good at bat? Sheesh
|
|
|
Post by junior on Jul 7, 2021 19:09:45 GMT -8
Hosmer really looked bad on that last AB, and 3 LOB.
But that's not nearly as bad as how Paddack looked tonight. Just an absolute failure.
|
|