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Pham
Apr 11, 2021 10:00:28 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 11, 2021 10:00:28 GMT -8
I'm not saying he's "done" and to give up on him. I'm saying he needs to start producing, and quick like. He looks like the same hitter he was last year, which wasn't very good and not what I'm sure the Padres expected. There may be reasons for it, and we'll find out if that's true. He's in the 7 hole, which is where he belongs for now, and will hopefully take the pressure off of him. By the way, I like how you put the "ph" to the word fair. Nice touch! "The same hitter he was last year"....He played in 20 games. 20. He came back from a broken hamate bone (an injury that is usually a death sentence for hitters) and was the best hitter on the team in the postseason. Now he's struggling after playing all of 8 games in 2021. 8. You clearly don't get this as you keep repeating the same incorrect things. Here's some more context : His hard hit rate is 53.8%. That's really, really good. His expected batting average right now is .245. (Not great, but over a hundred points higher than it is currently) - He's still working counts and seeing pitches, as evidenced by his 11% walk rate. And oh yeah, he was nearly stabbed to death in the offseason. Let's see how he ends up doing this year. I hope he turns it around and becomes the hitter we were expecting and all the reasons you bring up are why he's hitting so poorly. I said before he's putting the bat on the ball, and that's one of the reasons why he's still in tbe lineup. We need him on the bases with his speed. He needs to get his walk to strikeout ratio up, and I'm wondering what his average with "risp" is since last year. Hopefully all of that improves. I hope all of your metrics/stats prove to be true in the end. I'm not giving up on him, but he needs to produce. This is a production based business. I'll also say this, I have no problem with him at the bottom of tbe lineup, waiting to see if he can get out of his funk.
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Pham
Apr 11, 2021 11:30:19 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 11, 2021 11:30:19 GMT -8
"The same hitter he was last year"....He played in 20 games. 20. He came back from a broken hamate bone (an injury that is usually a death sentence for hitters) and was the best hitter on the team in the postseason. Now he's struggling after playing all of 8 games in 2021. 8. You clearly don't get this as you keep repeating the same incorrect things. Here's some more context : His hard hit rate is 53.8%. That's really, really good. His expected batting average right now is .245. (Not great, but over a hundred points higher than it is currently) - He's still working counts and seeing pitches, as evidenced by his 11% walk rate. And oh yeah, he was nearly stabbed to death in the offseason. Let's see how he ends up doing this year. I hope he turns it around and becomes the hitter we were expecting and all reasons you bring up are why he's hitting so poorly. I said before he's putting the bat on the ball, and that's one of the reasons why he's still in tbe lineup. We need him on the bases with his speed. He needs to get his walk to strikeout ratio up, and I'm wondering what his average with "risp" is since last year. Hopefully all of that improves. I hope all of your metrics/stats prove to be true in the end. I'm not giving up on him, but he needs to produce. This is a production based business. I'll also say this, I have no problem with him at the bottom of tbe lineup, waiting to see if he can get out of his funk. That's the thing...he *isn't* hitting poorly. He's barreling a lot of balls right at fielders, like today. He has a nearly identical walks to strikeout rate, too. His walk rate is 11.1%, his strikeout rate is 13.9% and his BABIP is a ridiculous .154, that's almost 150 points below league average. He isn't in a funk. He's having some serious bad luck over a very small sample size.
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Post by azteca on Apr 11, 2021 11:31:52 GMT -8
😲
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Pham
Apr 11, 2021 14:38:20 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 11, 2021 14:38:20 GMT -8
Let's see how he ends up doing this year. I hope he turns it around and becomes the hitter we were expecting and all reasons you bring up are why he's hitting so poorly. I said before he's putting the bat on the ball, and that's one of the reasons why he's still in tbe lineup. We need him on the bases with his speed. He needs to get his walk to strikeout ratio up, and I'm wondering what his average with "risp" is since last year. Hopefully all of that improves. I hope all of your metrics/stats prove to be true in the end. I'm not giving up on him, but he needs to produce. This is a production based business. I'll also say this, I have no problem with him at the bottom of tbe lineup, waiting to see if he can get out of his funk. That's the thing...he *isn't* hitting poorly. He's barreling a lot of balls right at fielders, like today. He has a nearly identical walks to strikeout rate, too. His walk rate is 11.1%, his strikeout rate is 13.9% and his BABIP is a ridiculous .154, that's almost 150 points below league average. He isn't in a funk. He's having some serious bad luck over a very small sample size. I understand what you're saying, he's barreling some balls and that's keeping him in the bottom part of the lineup, but with near no results. He's also hit into double plays, and hasn't been exactly clutch lately. I remember the same thing happening to me, hoping the Manager keeps me in the lineup, because I'm still barreling the ball. Keep him at the 7 hole and hopefully those barreled balls find eyes.
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 11, 2021 17:34:33 GMT -8
That's the thing...he *isn't* hitting poorly. He's barreling a lot of balls right at fielders, like today. He has a nearly identical walks to strikeout rate, too. His walk rate is 11.1%, his strikeout rate is 13.9% and his BABIP is a ridiculous .154, that's almost 150 points below league average. He isn't in a funk. He's having some serious bad luck over a very small sample size. I understand what you're saying, he's barreling some balls and that's keeping him in the bottom part of the lineup, but with near no results. He's also hit into double plays, and hasn't been exactly clutch lately. I remember the same thing happening to me, hoping the Manager keeps me in the lineup, because I'm still barreling the ball. Keep him at the 7 hole and hopefully those barreled balls find eyes. Uh...okay.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 10:08:11 GMT -8
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2021 10:08:11 GMT -8
Like I said before, I'm talking about last year as well. I'm hoping he turns it around. And, like I said as well, we'll see if your thoughts are just excuses for him, or if it's meaningful. I'm not going nuts about it, so I don't need to relax. I'm simply giving my opinion and my observation. Let's hope he proves me wrong. He's where he should be at this point, near the bottom of the order. While he's still in the lineup, I like his speed (if he can ever get on base) and his defense is fine. Thankfully, Grisham hasn't missed a beat. Nobody is making excuses. I'm providing statistically backed context because sample size is a real thing. You're still talking about 109 at-bats last year (Not enough of a sample size considering the circumstances of last season) and he posted an OBP 100 points above his batting average. The entire point of BABIP data is that it takes a LONG time to meaningfully stabilize. Would you judge a pitcher based on three starts? Cody Bellinger hit .239 last year. He's on the IL already this year after surgery for a shoulder injury. Is he terrible, too? I'm just wondering where the line gets drawn. Oh, NOW you think BA is a relevant stat? You of all people?!?!?! Ohhh Ryan..say it ain't so, my brotha.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2021 10:11:49 GMT -8
Pham is legit, a useful player -- though he's already 33 so with his injuries you wouldn't be shocked to see a decline instead of a surge.
.824 career OPS, and was really, really good from 2017-2019. Definitely above average, and I think he will contribute fine this year. He's had some bad luck so far, to start 2021.
I'm really a fan of his overall game.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 10:13:38 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 12, 2021 10:13:38 GMT -8
Nobody is making excuses. I'm providing statistically backed context because sample size is a real thing. You're still talking about 109 at-bats last year (Not enough of a sample size considering the circumstances of last season) and he posted an OBP 100 points above his batting average. The entire point of BABIP data is that it takes a LONG time to meaningfully stabilize. Would you judge a pitcher based on three starts? Cody Bellinger hit .239 last year. He's on the IL already this year after surgery for a shoulder injury. Is he terrible, too? I'm just wondering where the line gets drawn. Oh, NOW you think BA is a relevant stat? You of all people?!?!?! Ohhh Ryan..say it ain't so, my brotha. Whatever will fit the narrative. Lol.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 10:16:55 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 12, 2021 10:16:55 GMT -8
Pham is legit, a useful player -- though he's already 33 so with his injuries you wouldn't be shocked to see a decline instead of a surge. .824 career OPS, and was really, really good from 2017-2019. Definitely above average, and I think he will contribute fine this year. He's had some bad luck so far, to start 2021. I'm really a fan of his overall game. Yep, very good during the time frame you mentioned. He's hitting in the lineup where he should at the moment. As a fan, I have no beef and there's no need for me to critique him anymore if he stays down in the order. We need him on base, and we need him, period.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 11:07:41 GMT -8
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Post by sdcoug on Apr 12, 2021 11:07:41 GMT -8
Pham is legit, a useful player -- though he's already 33 so with his injuries you wouldn't be shocked to see a decline instead of a surge. .824 career OPS, and was really, really good from 2017-2019. Definitely above average, and I think he will contribute fine this year. He's had some bad luck so far, to start 2021. I'm really a fan of his overall game. Yep, very good during the time frame you mentioned. He's hitting in the lineup where he should at the moment. As a fan, I have no beef and there's no need for me to critique him anymore if he stays down in the order. We need him on base, and we need him, period. To touch on the "luck" issue, he's tied with Manny for 7th in baseball with the # of actual balls being called strikes with 7 (Myers is 4th with 10). That matters as it changes the at-bats. He's also in the top 5 in balls hit 368+ feet and the only one of those guys who doesn't have a hit on those deep balls. 1 of the guys ahead of him has something like 4 homers despite just a couple more deep balls. He grounded a few at inopportune times but he's hitting the ball just fine. He's 31st in the majors in Barrels/PA, 2nd on our team to Manny who's also had some bad luck. He's 3rd on the team in % of hard hit balls. He's going to eventually breakthrough. Statistically its almost impossible not to given how he's hit the ball. Whether he hits 2nd, 5th or 7th is really irrelevant. He can hit in any of those spots. Its more about where you want him when he finally does break through? PS. Another stat is the gap between the actual batting average & the expected BA given how he's hit the ball. He's 15th in the majors with a gap of -0.140. While he's only hitting .121 he should be hitting closer to .261.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 11:28:29 GMT -8
Post by azson on Apr 12, 2021 11:28:29 GMT -8
Jesus, some of you...it's APRIL. He had the most Padre hits in the playoffs last year...you know, when it matters most? Some of you need to take a chill pill.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 12:18:27 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 12, 2021 12:18:27 GMT -8
Oh, NOW you think BA is a relevant stat? You of all people?!?!?! Ohhh Ryan..say it ain't so, my brotha. Whatever will fit the narrative. Lol. I was using your argument (because every fan references surface numbers) - I don't care one iota about batting average if the peripherals are good enough. You claimed Pham was terrible last year, so I'm led to believe you were talking about his batting average, specifically. I know Josh is kidding, but there's no narrative here. Your argument doesn't stand up to statistics - This is exactly why advanced metrics exist, to discern between actual poor performance and not.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 13:03:32 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 12, 2021 13:03:32 GMT -8
Whatever will fit the narrative. Lol. I was using your argument (because every fan references surface numbers) - I don't care one iota about batting average if the peripherals are good enough. You claimed Pham was terrible last year, so I'm led to believe you were talking about his batting average, specifically. I know Josh is kidding, but there's no narrative here. Your argument doesn't stand up to statistics - This is exactly why advanced metrics exist, to discern between actual poor performance and not. Let me put it this way. Pham is hitting where he should be in the line up at this point. He wasn't, and isn't getting the job done. The reason he's still in the lineup is because he does other things well, and he's barreling the ball. I'm waiting for him to break through.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 13:04:09 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 12, 2021 13:04:09 GMT -8
Jesus, some of you...it's APRIL. He had the most Padre hits in the playoffs last year...you know, when it matters most? Some of you need to take a chill pill. For me, I wasn't going off of this year solely. It's a continuation of him not getting the job done starting from last year to now. We'll see if they're reasons why, or excuses that Ryan has brought up. I'm really hoping they're reasons why. We need him.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 13:06:34 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 12, 2021 13:06:34 GMT -8
Yep, very good during the time frame you mentioned. He's hitting in the lineup where he should at the moment. As a fan, I have no beef and there's no need for me to critique him anymore if he stays down in the order. We need him on base, and we need him, period. To touch on the "luck" issue, he's tied with Manny for 7th in baseball with the # of actual balls being called strikes with 7 (Myers is 4th with 10). That matters as it changes the at-bats. He's also in the top 5 in balls hit 368+ feet and the only one of those guys who doesn't have a hit on those deep balls. 1 of the guys ahead of him has something like 4 homers despite just a couple more deep balls. He grounded a few at inopportune times but he's hitting the ball just fine. He's 31st in the majors in Barrels/PA, 2nd on our team to Manny who's also had some bad luck. He's 3rd on the team in % of hard hit balls. He's going to eventually breakthrough. Statistically its almost impossible not to given how he's hit the ball. Whether he hits 2nd, 5th or 7th is really irrelevant. He can hit in any of those spots. Its more about where you want him when he finally does break through? PS. Another stat is the gap between the actual batting average & the expected BA given how he's hit the ball. He's 15th in the majors with a gap of -0.140. While he's only hitting .121 he should be hitting closer to .261. I get why they had him leading off when Grisham was out, but he wasn't doing the job there. Now, he's hitting where he should be. I'm waiting for him to break out. I love the way he's barreling the ball.
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Post by sdcoug on Apr 12, 2021 13:26:23 GMT -8
To touch on the "luck" issue, he's tied with Manny for 7th in baseball with the # of actual balls being called strikes with 7 (Myers is 4th with 10). That matters as it changes the at-bats. He's also in the top 5 in balls hit 368+ feet and the only one of those guys who doesn't have a hit on those deep balls. 1 of the guys ahead of him has something like 4 homers despite just a couple more deep balls. He grounded a few at inopportune times but he's hitting the ball just fine. He's 31st in the majors in Barrels/PA, 2nd on our team to Manny who's also had some bad luck. He's 3rd on the team in % of hard hit balls. He's going to eventually breakthrough. Statistically its almost impossible not to given how he's hit the ball. Whether he hits 2nd, 5th or 7th is really irrelevant. He can hit in any of those spots. Its more about where you want him when he finally does break through? PS. Another stat is the gap between the actual batting average & the expected BA given how he's hit the ball. He's 15th in the majors with a gap of -0.140. While he's only hitting .121 he should be hitting closer to .261. I get why they had him leading when Grisham was out, but he wasn't doing the job there. Now, he's hitting where he should be. I'm waiting for him to break out. I love the way he's barreling the ball. Again, depends on how you define that? He's hitting the ball better/harder than other guys hitting higher in the line-up, so he's "doing the job". He's just not getting the breaks that someone like Cronenworth is getting. Cronenworth is hitting softer balls into holes, while Pham's hitting harder balls right at guys. That balances out over the season, in theory, and there's no reason to think it wouldn't start balancing out the very next game. If he was swinging & missing or popping out and not walking more than others then yea, he "wasn't doing the job." But that's not the case. I think the fundamental difference between what you're saying & what others are saying, including myself, is that hitting the ball well & not having success isn't a reason to bench or move him down in the line-up. If Grisham goes 0-12 but is hitting the ball well & walking at the same rate he's K'ing do you move him down because he's not "doing the job there"? I like having Pham 7th, but I'd also have no issues with him hitting 2nd, 5th or 6th if Tingler moves him there. Not while he's still hitting the ball well. Having him 7th just puts less pressure on him to feel like he has to deliver, and hopefully allows him to keep doing what he's doing until his luck does finally turn.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 18:15:09 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 12, 2021 18:15:09 GMT -8
Jesus, some of you...it's APRIL. He had the most Padre hits in the playoffs last year...you know, when it matters most? Some of you need to take a chill pill. For me, I wasn't going off of this year solely. It's a continuation of him not getting the job done starting from last year to now. We'll see if they're reasons why, or excuses that Ryan has brought up. I'm really hoping they're reasons why. We need him. He played in 20 games last year. If we're going off of that, then Fernando Tatis Jr.'s September should be ridiculed. But it isn't.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 18:39:21 GMT -8
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Post by johneaztec on Apr 12, 2021 18:39:21 GMT -8
For me, I wasn't going off of this year solely. It's a continuation of him not getting the job done starting from last year to now. We'll see if they're reasons why, or excuses that Ryan has brought up. I'm really hoping they're reasons why. We need him. He played in 20 games last year. If we're going off of that, then Fernando Tatis Jr.'s September should be ridiculed. But it isn't. Pham is no Tatis Jr., nor a Bellinger. With Tatis and Bellinger, you KNOW they'll climb out of it. With Pham, I'm not so sure, but hopeful. Like I said many times, I'm fine with him batting 7th. I don't need to critique anymore, because of it. If he starts mashing, then climb him up the order in place of someone who isn't.
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Pham
Apr 12, 2021 20:25:56 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Apr 12, 2021 20:25:56 GMT -8
He played in 20 games last year. If we're going off of that, then Fernando Tatis Jr.'s September should be ridiculed. But it isn't. Pham is no Tatis Jr., nor a Bellinger. With Tatis and Bellinger, you KNOW they'll climb out of it. With Pham, I'm not so sure, but hopeful. Like I said many times, I'm fine with him batting 7th. I don't need to critique anymore, because of it. If he starts mashing, then climb him up the order in place of someone who isn't. K.
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Pham
Apr 13, 2021 17:25:33 GMT -8
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Post by azteca on Apr 13, 2021 17:25:33 GMT -8
To the best of my knowledge Pham has left the bases loaded twice tonight and the last one was a weak grounder to SS.
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