|
Post by uwphoto on Jun 26, 2020 11:01:23 GMT -8
Well, my EU passport just got put on ice. Otherwise my inclination is to bail, then watch from afar..before deciding to jump back in. Take a deep breath my panicky friend and step back from the edge. This is mostly likely a statistical bump created by a change in testing methodology. A few weeks ago hospitals started testing everyone. A full 20% of positive COVID-19 cases in hospitals are patients that did not go to the hospital for anything related to COVID-19. For example, now someone with a sprained ankle could hobble in to a hospital, be tested positive, and is now counted as a COVID-19 hospitalization. Weeks ago that same person wouldn't have been tested or he/she may not have gone to the hospital at all for fear of catching COVID-19. Before you jump ship, wait to see if there is a spike in deaths. Those statistics are harder to manipulate in a way that would show an increase in deaths going forward unless the "2nd wave" is real. has nothing to do with Covid levels. Has to do with the likely $#!+show that will happen around November. America isn't so great right now..and its gonna get worse around that time.
|
|
|
Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 12:27:34 GMT -8
We agree on the statistics being almost useless due to past and ongoing significant changes in the way the underlying data has been gathered. That is why I don’t care about confirmed cases or hospitalizations. Those stats are too easily twisted. We’ll stick with deaths. Deaths can be manipulated just as easily. Again, look at Florida. You have to go state by state, for the most part, to get comprehensive data. The cases are legitimately skyrocketing in Arizona, Texas, Florida and a few other states. Nationally, there is still expansion outside of widened testing numbers. It's ugly. Just watch. I can tell you're wrapped in the narrative by mentioning those 3 states. You're reciting rote. If you had been drawing the opinion from statistics you would have mentioned California first and yet you didn't mention it at all. Why do you think that is? (rhetorical question, don't answer it) Have patience and watch the death statistics. It is not like you have a choice. 21 days is going to pass if you want it to or not.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 12:37:36 GMT -8
Deaths can be manipulated just as easily. Again, look at Florida. You have to go state by state, for the most part, to get comprehensive data. The cases are legitimately skyrocketing in Arizona, Texas, Florida and a few other states. Nationally, there is still expansion outside of widened testing numbers. It's ugly. Just watch. I can tell you're wrapped in the narrative by mentioning those 3 states. You're reciting rote. If you had been drawing the opinion from statistics you would have mentioned California first and yet you didn't mention it at all. Why do you think that is? (rhetorical question, don't answer it) Have patience and watch the death statistics. It is not like you have a choice. 21 days is going to pass if you want it to or not. Reaching at straws here - I didn't mention California because California isn't opening up at the speed of Texas or Florida. California's testing has increased substantially with positive rates staying in range, while Florida's has tapered off (with a 15%+ positive rate) on top of it. I don't get how anyone can objectively look at the data and come to a different conclusion.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 13:01:15 GMT -8
Just watch. I can tell you're wrapped in the narrative by mentioning those 3 states. You're reciting rote. If you had been drawing the opinion from statistics you would have mentioned California first and yet you didn't mention it at all. Why do you think that is? (rhetorical question, don't answer it) Have patience and watch the death statistics. It is not like you have a choice. 21 days is going to pass if you want it to or not. Reaching at straws here - I didn't mention California because California isn't opening up at the speed of Texas or Florida. California's testing has increased substantially with positive rates staying in range, while Florida's has tapered off (with a 15%+ positive rate) on top of it. I don't get how anyone can objectively look at the data and come to a different conclusion. Florida has : More cases/capita, more deaths/capita (despite classifying thousands of COVID-19 deaths as pneumonia) and less tests/capita in comparison to California. Combine that with the expediency of which Florida defied science and opened up their state, it's pretty simple.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 13:36:14 GMT -8
Not that it matters, but I made a math error in my calculations with the nadir point for deaths. So I will go on record and say "Oops, I'm stupid" and we'll likely only have 4,000-5,000 deaths a week here, not what my original statement said. The 7 day average is 609, per Worldometers, so it would still be an increase, just not as drastic as what I indicated.
My. Fault.
|
|
|
Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 14:42:49 GMT -8
Not that it matters, but I made a math error in my calculations with the nadir point for deaths. So I will go on record and say "Oops, I'm stupid" and we'll likely only have 4,000-5,000 deaths a week here, not what my original statement said. The 7 day average is 609, per Worldometers, so it would still be an increase, just not as drastic as what I indicated. My. Fault. That is quite a walk back. You went from a prediction of 14,000+ deaths per week a few hours ago, to now a range of 4,000-5,000 per week. You also point out the current 7-day average is 609 per day, which is already in the range of 4,000-5,000 per week. Kudos for owning it.
|
|
|
Post by uwphoto on Jun 26, 2020 14:46:06 GMT -8
Take a deep breath my panicky friend and step back from the edge. This is mostly likely a statistical bump created by a change in testing methodology. A few weeks ago hospitals started testing everyone. A full 20% of positive COVID-19 cases in hospitals are patients that did not go to the hospital for anything related to COVID-19. For example, now someone with a sprained ankle could hobble in to a hospital, be tested positive, and is now counted as a COVID-19 hospitalization. Weeks ago that same person wouldn't have been tested or he/she may not have gone to the hospital at all for fear of catching COVID-19. Before you jump ship, wait to see if there is a spike in deaths. Those statistics are harder to manipulate in a way that would show an increase in deaths going forward unless the "2nd wave" is real. Literally nothing about this is accurate. It's directly tied to the removal of mitigation efforts in certain regions. Deaths have reversed as well, in the last several days. Deaths will spike substantially in the next few weeks as we head towards 50,000 cases and beyond. This is not a second wave, either. It's still the first. Here's what I'm not panicky about. The fact that Trump is gonna get blown out in November. You might be left with some orange stain.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 15:04:07 GMT -8
Not that it matters, but I made a math error in my calculations with the nadir point for deaths. So I will go on record and say "Oops, I'm stupid" and we'll likely only have 4,000-5,000 deaths a week here, not what my original statement said. The 7 day average is 609, per Worldometers, so it would still be an increase, just not as drastic as what I indicated. My. Fault. That is quite a walk back. You went from a prediction of 14,000+ deaths per week a few hours ago, to now a range of 4,000-5,000 per week. You also point out the current 7-day average is 609 per day, which is already in the range of 4,000-5,000 per week. Kudos for owning it. Not a walkback. A mistake I made while on melatonin for not having slept in a week. To be crystal clear, the deaths will rise here in a few weeks. Another record high in cases today as well. Mitigation measures will determine how bad it gets from state to state, especially in the South. I don't expect it to be on par with April's numbers, due to a lot of the most vulnerable people already being dead. We'll see what transpires.
|
|
|
Post by Al-O-Meter on Jul 5, 2020 9:21:56 GMT -8
How much of a rate increase is the minimum you consider to be "significant"? 100% increase? 50% increase? Depends on what metric you're using. I expect 2,000+ deaths daily though starting in a few weeks, a number we haven't seen in several weeks. The data reporting process is extremely difficult in certain states that refuse to publish hospitalizations (Florida, for example) so we are going to get some feedback and noise on a daily basis, but this extended wave looks really bad on paper. And if the Trump administration is successful with repealing the ACA, millions of people will have no health insurance. We're now almost half way through your 21 days.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2020 10:30:05 GMT -8
Depends on what metric you're using. I expect 2,000+ deaths daily though starting in a few weeks, a number we haven't seen in several weeks. The data reporting process is extremely difficult in certain states that refuse to publish hospitalizations (Florida, for example) so we are going to get some feedback and noise on a daily basis, but this extended wave looks really bad on paper. And if the Trump administration is successful with repealing the ACA, millions of people will have no health insurance. We're now almost half way through your 21 days. I already addressed this, unless you forgot. Clearly, the virus is under control as evidenced by record cases daily now. A younger age of infected people will likely handle the virus "better", relatively speaking, but I feel like the Trump crowd/COVID hoaxers are living in a black and white bubble of denial. People that get COVID don't just magically recover with 100% efficiency.
|
|
|
Post by johneaztec on Jul 5, 2020 11:25:53 GMT -8
We're now almost half way through your 21 days. I already addressed this, unless you forgot. Clearly, the virus is under control as evidenced by record cases daily now. A younger age of infected people will likely handle the virus "better", relatively speaking, but I feel like the Trump crowd/COVID hoaxers are living in a black and white bubble of denial. People that get COVID don't just magically recover with 100% efficiency. Don't forget, some people don't even know they have it and then get over it with zero symptoms. So there's that. They're the most dangerous.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2020 12:03:57 GMT -8
I already addressed this, unless you forgot. Clearly, the virus is under control as evidenced by record cases daily now. A younger age of infected people will likely handle the virus "better", relatively speaking, but I feel like the Trump crowd/COVID hoaxers are living in a black and white bubble of denial. People that get COVID don't just magically recover with 100% efficiency. Don't forget. Some people don't even know they have it and get over it with zero symptoms. So there's that. They're the most dangerous. I agree with this somewhat. I think the complete ignorance towards the virus itself is the most damaging. You have people who still believe this is the flu, who think that people who don't die are magically fine again and that it's still some media paranoia hoax.
|
|
|
Post by johneaztec on Jul 5, 2020 12:58:14 GMT -8
Don't forget. Some people don't even know they have it and get over it with zero symptoms. So there's that. They're the most dangerous. I agree with this somewhat. I think the complete ignorance towards the virus itself is the most damaging. You have people who still believe this is the flu, who think that people who don't die are magically fine again and that it's still some media paranoia hoax. Yes. I always wear my mask, and I try not to go anywhere where there's crowds to limit my possibilities. I hope you're feeling better Ryan. No sleep sucks.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2020 13:15:31 GMT -8
I agree with this somewhat. I think the complete ignorance towards the virus itself is the most damaging. You have people who still believe this is the flu, who think that people who don't die are magically fine again and that it's still some media paranoia hoax. Yes. I always wear my mask, and I try not to go anywhere where there's crowds to limit my possibilities. I hope you're feeling better Ryan. No sleep sucks. Appreciate it. Going to be a long summer and fall. We appear to have given up nationally.
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Jul 5, 2020 13:20:54 GMT -8
Stuff like this makes me angry.
|
|
|
Post by uwphoto on Jul 5, 2020 13:41:20 GMT -8
Stuff like this makes me angry. People are going nuts, and these days..they have a platform. Doesn't matter how screwy you act or what crazy stuff you beleive...and the media (both extremes) seem to really enjoy it. Perhaps 75% of Americans are at least sane I hope?
|
|
|
Post by uwphoto on Jul 5, 2020 13:44:50 GMT -8
Stuff like this makes me angry. Meanwhile, my relatives in France are in a flattened curve situation that is looking good for now. They were in a lockdown that would never work in America. It feels like an implosion is imminent as people go off their rockers.. inspired by the orange headed Nero.
|
|
|
Post by Al-O-Meter on Jul 5, 2020 15:42:52 GMT -8
We're now almost half way through your 21 days. I already addressed this, unless you forgot. I didn't forget. You made this laughably stupid prediction then crawled back a short time later claiming an issue with drugs and lack of sleep at which point you amended your prediction to be 4,500 +/- 500 per week. Are you still feeling good about that second prediction or can we expect a new claim of being on drugs? I feel like the Trump crowd/COVID hoaxers are living in a black and white bubble of denial. Statistics. It is a black and white bubble of statistics. The COVID-19 mortality rate is highly graduated. Anyone with half a brain should have been able to look at this so-called "spike in cases" and the corresponding testing rates along with the plunge in average age matched up to the CDC published mortality schedule to see exactly what was going to happen. I look forward to posting the updated statistics 11 days from now to see if you are a prophet. People that get COVID don't just magically recover with 100% efficiency. You're now unhappy with the Federal response to the pandemic because the human immune system doesn't violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics? Okay sport, whatever you say.
|
|
|
Post by uwphoto on Jul 5, 2020 15:56:34 GMT -8
I already addressed this, unless you forgot. I didn't forget. You made this laughably stupid prediction then crawled back a short time later claiming an issue with drugs and lack of sleep at which point you amended your prediction to be 4,500 +/- 500 per week. Are you still feeling good about that second prediction or can we expect a new claim of being on drugs? I feel like the Trump crowd/COVID hoaxers are living in a black and white bubble of denial. Statistics. It is a black and white bubble of statistics. The COVID-19 mortality rate is highly graduated. Anyone with half a brain should have been able to look at this so-called "spike in cases" and the corresponding testing rates along with the plunge in average age matched up to the CDC published mortality schedule to see exactly what was going to happen. I look forward to posting the updated statistics 11 days from now to see if you are a prophet. People that get COVID don't just magically recover with 100% efficiency. You're now unhappy with the Federal response to the pandemic because the human immune system doesn't violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics? Okay sport, whatever you say. uh, the federal response to the pandemic is a f****** joke. Our standing in the world as a beacon of light has been obliterated. We went to the moon in the 60's, now we can't even go to Paris...but Rwanda and Algeria can. This is the greatest American failure since 1776.
|
|
|
Post by Al-O-Meter on Jul 5, 2020 16:14:52 GMT -8
I didn't forget. You made this laughably stupid prediction then crawled back a short time later claiming an issue with drugs and lack of sleep at which point you amended your prediction to be 4,500 +/- 500 per week. Are you still feeling good about that second prediction or can we expect a new claim of being on drugs? Statistics. It is a black and white bubble of statistics. The COVID-19 mortality rate is highly graduated. Anyone with half a brain should have been able to look at this so-called "spike in cases" and the corresponding testing rates along with the plunge in average age matched up to the CDC published mortality schedule to see exactly what was going to happen. I look forward to posting the updated statistics 11 days from now to see if you are a prophet. You're now unhappy with the Federal response to the pandemic because the human immune system doesn't violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics? Okay sport, whatever you say. uh, the federal response to the pandemic is a f****** joke. Our standing in the world as a beacon of light has been obliterated. We went to the moon in the 60's, now we can't even go to Paris...but Rwanda and Algeria can. This is the greatest American failure since 1776. For as much as you've been lauding France, you do know that France lost a higher percentage of its people to COVID-19 than did the Americans, right? If we were a joke then France was a worse joke.
|
|