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Post by uwphoto on Jun 25, 2020 12:42:25 GMT -8
So Trump tells a bunch of students in Arizona that the virus is going away. At the same time cases are spiking in Zona and other states. I'm sorry, but people who support this guy are just fuggin stupid. Dont give me Biden, Obama, Flynn etc. This is insanity.
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Post by AztecWilliam on Jun 25, 2020 16:47:20 GMT -8
Well, you will get either The Donald or Sleepy Joe. Both are unqualified, but there you are.
AzWm
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Post by uwphoto on Jun 25, 2020 18:06:35 GMT -8
Well, you will get either The Donald or Sleepy Joe. Both are unqualified, but there you are. AzWm Well, my EU passport just got put on ice. Otherwise my inclination is to bail, then watch from afar..before deciding to jump back in. |
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Post by uwphoto on Jun 25, 2020 18:07:35 GMT -8
Well, you will get either The Donald or Sleepy Joe. Both are unqualified, but there you are. AzWm Well, my EU passport just got put on ice. Otherwise my inclination is to bail, then watch from afar..before deciding to jump back in. ..meaning a couple months on either side of November. |
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Post by La Mesa Aztec on Jun 25, 2020 22:47:38 GMT -8
To this Republican Sleepy Joe >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Idiot Trump.
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Post by ptsdthor on Jun 26, 2020 6:25:15 GMT -8
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 8:47:49 GMT -8
Well, you will get either The Donald or Sleepy Joe. Both are unqualified, but there you are. AzWm Well, my EU passport just got put on ice. Otherwise my inclination is to bail, then watch from afar..before deciding to jump back in. Take a deep breath my panicky friend and step back from the edge. This is mostly likely a statistical bump created by a change in testing methodology. A few weeks ago hospitals started testing everyone. A full 20% of positive COVID-19 cases in hospitals are patients that did not go to the hospital for anything related to COVID-19. For example, now someone with a sprained ankle could hobble in to a hospital, be tested positive, and is now counted as a COVID-19 hospitalization. Weeks ago that same person wouldn't have been tested or he/she may not have gone to the hospital at all for fear of catching COVID-19. Before you jump ship, wait to see if there is a spike in deaths. Those statistics are harder to manipulate in a way that would show an increase in deaths going forward unless the "2nd wave" is real. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 8:55:11 GMT -8
Well, my EU passport just got put on ice. Otherwise my inclination is to bail, then watch from afar..before deciding to jump back in. Take a deep breath my panicky friend and step back from the edge. This is mostly likely a statistical bump created by a change in testing methodology. A few weeks ago hospitals started testing everyone. A full 20% of positive COVID-19 cases in hospitals are patients that did not go to the hospital for anything related to COVID-19. For example, now someone with a sprained ankle could hobble in to a hospital, be tested positive, and is now counted as a COVID-19 hospitalization. Weeks ago that same person wouldn't have been tested or he/she may not have gone to the hospital at all for fear of catching COVID-19. Before you jump ship, wait to see if there is a spike in deaths. Those statistics are harder to manipulate in a way that would show an increase in deaths going forward unless the "2nd wave" is real. Literally nothing about this is accurate. It's directly tied to the removal of mitigation efforts in certain regions. Deaths have reversed as well, in the last several days. Deaths will spike substantially in the next few weeks as we head towards 50,000 cases and beyond. This is not a second wave, either. It's still the first. |
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 9:07:31 GMT -8
Deaths will spike substantially in the next few weeks That sounds like a prediction we should wager on. If you lose, you have to use a MAGA hat as your profile pic on AztecMesa for 7 days. What would you like if you win, and how much do you consider to be "substantially"? |
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 9:12:41 GMT -8
It will be a 150x150 pixel version of this image, and I will supply it.  |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 9:22:51 GMT -8
Deaths will spike substantially in the next few weeks That sounds like a prediction we should wager on. If you lose, you have to use a MAGA hat as your profile pic on AztecMesa for 7 days. What would you like if you win, and how much do you consider to be "substantially"? This isn't a game. It's basic statistics and epidemiology. And it's already trending the wrong direction in the last handful of days, even accounting for the holiday weekend lag. Florida and Texas, two extremely poorly run states, are reversing procedure now to close down bars and limit restaurant capacity again. Florida just obliterated their daily record, with nearly 9,000 new cases. |
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 9:27:30 GMT -8
That sounds like a prediction we should wager on. If you lose, you have to use a MAGA hat as your profile pic on AztecMesa for 7 days. What would you like if you win, and how much do you consider to be "substantially"? This isn't a game. It's basic statistics and epidemiology. And it's already trending the wrong direction in the last handful of days, even accounting for the holiday weekend lag. Florida and Texas, two extremely poorly run states, are reversing procedure now to close down bars and limit restaurant capacity again. Florida just obliterated their daily record, with nearly 9,000 new cases.  |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 9:29:30 GMT -8
This isn't a game. It's basic statistics and epidemiology. And it's already trending the wrong direction in the last handful of days, even accounting for the holiday weekend lag. Florida and Texas, two extremely poorly run states, are reversing procedure now to close down bars and limit restaurant capacity again. Florida just obliterated their daily record, with nearly 9,000 new cases. I'll bet on just about anything. I draw the line on human lives. And betting a Trump supporter, over this, is a no go. But I'll hate being right. Expect the 7 day average to climb significantly, even with states trying to manipulate data. |
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 9:36:38 GMT -8
I'll bet on just about anything. I draw the line on human lives. And betting a Trump supporter, over this, is a no go. But I'll hate being right. Expect the 7 day average to climb significantly, even with states trying to manipulate data. How much of a rate increase is the minimum you consider to be "significant"? 100% increase? 50% increase? |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 9:45:17 GMT -8
I'll bet on just about anything. I draw the line on human lives. And betting a Trump supporter, over this, is a no go. But I'll hate being right. Expect the 7 day average to climb significantly, even with states trying to manipulate data. How much of a rate increase is the minimum you consider to be "significant"? 100% increase? 50% increase? Depends on what metric you're using. I expect 2,000+ deaths daily though starting in a few weeks, a number we haven't seen in several weeks. The data reporting process is extremely difficult in certain states that refuse to publish hospitalizations (Florida, for example) so we are going to get some feedback and noise on a daily basis, but this extended wave looks really bad on paper. And if the Trump administration is successful with repealing the ACA, millions of people will have no health insurance. |
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 10:28:30 GMT -8
How much of a rate increase is the minimum you consider to be "significant"? 100% increase? 50% increase? Depends on what metric you're using. I expect 2,000+ deaths daily though starting in a few weeks, a number we haven't seen in several weeks. The data reporting process is extremely difficult in certain states that refuse to publish hospitalizations (Florida, for example) so we are going to get some feedback and noise on a daily basis, but this extended wave looks really bad on paper. And if the Trump administration is successful with repealing the ACA, millions of people will have no health insurance. That is indeed a significant increase you are predicting. Yesterday, June 25th, there were 649 COVID-19 deaths. From the date of the first death until now we are averaging 960.5 COVID-19 deaths per day. If that rate is going to shoot up from the current 649 all the way through 2000+ over the next 21 days it would indeed be "significant". I'm just doubting highly that it happens but we can come back to this thread in 21 days to see if your prediction was correct. For the record, I am using the statistics from this page: www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/ |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 10:32:53 GMT -8
Depends on what metric you're using. I expect 2,000+ deaths daily though starting in a few weeks, a number we haven't seen in several weeks. The data reporting process is extremely difficult in certain states that refuse to publish hospitalizations (Florida, for example) so we are going to get some feedback and noise on a daily basis, but this extended wave looks really bad on paper. And if the Trump administration is successful with repealing the ACA, millions of people will have no health insurance. That is indeed a significant increase you are predicting. Yesterday, June 25th, there were 649 COVID-19 deaths. From the date of the first death until now we are averaging 960.5 COVID-19 deaths per day. If that rate is going to shoot up from the current 649 all the way through 2000+ over the next 21 days it would indeed be "significant". I'm just doubting highly that it happens but we can come back to this thread in 21 days to see if your prediction was correct. For the record, I am using the statistics from this page: www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/I would only use numbers from the last few weeks as circumstances have changed pretty significantly in the way states report their data. Believe it or not, I'm seeing projections much higher than mine. The only thing I can see not causing a spike in deaths is a higher than normal asymptomatic rate, combined with a younger age of infection. Sadly, some of those people will still end up compromised for life. |
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Jun 26, 2020 10:42:26 GMT -8
That is indeed a significant increase you are predicting. Yesterday, June 25th, there were 649 COVID-19 deaths. From the date of the first death until now we are averaging 960.5 COVID-19 deaths per day. If that rate is going to shoot up from the current 649 all the way through 2000+ over the next 21 days it would indeed be "significant". I'm just doubting highly that it happens but we can come back to this thread in 21 days to see if your prediction was correct. For the record, I am using the statistics from this page: www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/I would only use numbers from the last few weeks as circumstances have changed pretty significantly in the way states report their data. Believe it or not, I'm seeing projections much higher than mine. The only thing I can see not causing a spike in deaths is a higher than normal asymptomatic rate, combined with a younger age of infection. Sadly, some of those people will still end up compromised for life. We agree on the statistics being almost useless due to past and ongoing significant changes in the way the underlying data has been gathered. That is why I don’t care about confirmed cases or hospitalizations. Those stats are too easily twisted. We’ll stick with deaths. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 26, 2020 10:48:13 GMT -8
I would only use numbers from the last few weeks as circumstances have changed pretty significantly in the way states report their data. Believe it or not, I'm seeing projections much higher than mine. The only thing I can see not causing a spike in deaths is a higher than normal asymptomatic rate, combined with a younger age of infection. Sadly, some of those people will still end up compromised for life. We agree on the statistics being almost useless due to past and ongoing significant changes in the way the underlying data has been gathered. That is why I don’t care about confirmed cases or hospitalizations. Those stats are too easily twisted. We’ll stick with deaths. Deaths can be manipulated just as easily. Again, look at Florida. You have to go state by state, for the most part, to get comprehensive data. The cases are legitimately skyrocketing in Arizona, Texas, Florida and a few other states. Nationally, there is still expansion outside of widened testing numbers. It's ugly. |
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Post by sdsu2000 on Jun 26, 2020 10:55:38 GMT -8
Biden and Trump is the best America has to offer which is just sad.
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