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Post by aztecmusician on Jun 23, 2020 16:54:07 GMT -8
After weeks of talks between players and owners, the 2020 season will happen.
-60 game season.
-Players report July 1, season kicks off around July 20.
-Probably no fans attending the games.
-Strict Corona Virus precautions will be enforced.
Play ball!
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It’s on!
Jun 23, 2020 19:08:30 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 23, 2020 19:08:30 GMT -8
After weeks of talks between players and owners, the 2020 season will happen. -60 game season. -Players report July 1, season kicks off around July 20. -Probably no fans attending the games. -Strict Corona Virus precautions will be enforced. Play ball! July 24th. Universal DH. The Padres will play 40 games within the division and 20 with geographic partners. 60 man squads will be announced Sunday.
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Post by aardvark on Jun 23, 2020 20:03:02 GMT -8
After weeks of talks between players and owners, the 2020 season will happen. -60 game season. -Players report July 1, season kicks off around July 20. -Probably no fans attending the games. -Strict Corona Virus precautions will be enforced. Play ball! July 24th. Universal DH. The Padres will play 40 games within the division and 20 with geographic partners. 60 man squads will be announced Sunday. A 60 man roster? Or is that just the number of players going to Spring Training II?
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 23, 2020 21:16:50 GMT -8
July 24th. Universal DH. The Padres will play 40 games within the division and 20 with geographic partners. 60 man squads will be announced Sunday. A 60 man roster? Or is that just the number of players going to Spring Training II? That's the group of players going to spring training that will comprise the pool you can draw from. Opening day 30 man rosters will be used. Drops to 28 after 2 weeks, 26 after 4 weeks.
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Post by aztecmusician on Jun 24, 2020 6:53:57 GMT -8
It will be interesting to see which teams do well with the shortened season.
Last year after 60 games the Padres were 31-29.
One or two of the young Padres pitchers needs to break out this season, (Paddack, Quantrill, Gore) and have a dominant 10 starts right out the gate. It’s been a while (Jake Peavey) since a Padres SP has been in the conversation for a Cy Young award, this staff is over due for some success.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 24, 2020 9:00:13 GMT -8
It will be interesting to see which teams do well with the shortened season. Last year after 60 games the Padres were 31-29. One or two of the young Padres pitchers needs to break out this season, (Paddack, Quantrill, Gore) and have a dominant 10 starts right out the gate. It’s been a while (Jake Peavey) since a Padres SP has been in the conversation for a Cy Young award, this staff is over due for some success. The shortened season helps the Padres more than just about anyone. You can use tremendous bullpen depth (I counted twelve relievers yesterday that I would consider legitimate options) and really use your talent to your advantages. The schedule isn't as fun as I was hoping for, but I think they are a legit playoff team in this format.
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It’s on!
Jun 24, 2020 14:02:13 GMT -8
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Post by aztecmusician on Jun 24, 2020 14:02:13 GMT -8
It will be interesting to see which teams do well with the shortened season. Last year after 60 games the Padres were 31-29. One or two of the young Padres pitchers needs to break out this season, (Paddack, Quantrill, Gore) and have a dominant 10 starts right out the gate. It’s been a while (Jake Peavey) since a Padres SP has been in the conversation for a Cy Young award, this staff is over due for some success. The shortened season helps the Padres more than just about anyone. You can use tremendous bullpen depth (I counted twelve relievers yesterday that I would consider legitimate options) and really use your talent to your advantages. The schedule isn't as fun as I was hoping for, but I think they are a legit playoff team in this format. Agreed. Teams with tons of experience (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals) have a tendency to get hot the second half and overtake their respective divisions. 60 games certainly helps the Padres, especially with their lights out bullpen.
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It’s on!
Jun 24, 2020 14:21:22 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 24, 2020 14:21:22 GMT -8
The shortened season helps the Padres more than just about anyone. You can use tremendous bullpen depth (I counted twelve relievers yesterday that I would consider legitimate options) and really use your talent to your advantages. The schedule isn't as fun as I was hoping for, but I think they are a legit playoff team in this format. Agreed. Teams with tons of experience (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals) have a tendency to get hot the second half and overtake their respective divisions. 60 games certainly helps the Padres, especially with their lights out bullpen. ZiPS has the Padres at 42% to make the playoffs.
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Post by aardvark on Jun 24, 2020 21:29:02 GMT -8
Agreed. Teams with tons of experience (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals) have a tendency to get hot the second half and overtake their respective divisions. 60 games certainly helps the Padres, especially with their lights out bullpen. ZiPS has the Padres at 42% to make the playoffs. Polls are useless. It's why they play the games. Unfortunately this season, without fans. Was really hoping to see Tatis Jr blossom in his sophomore season in person.
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It’s on!
Jun 24, 2020 22:04:08 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 24, 2020 22:04:08 GMT -8
ZiPS has the Padres at 42% to make the playoffs. Polls are useless. It's why they play the games. Unfortunately this season, without fans. Was really hoping to see Tatis Jr blossom in his sophomore season in person. Not a poll, it's a detailed projection system run by a very bright guy who works his tail off. Incorporates rosters, including minor league talent, along with strength of schedule to project a record. And it lines up nearly identically to the implied probability of the Vegas odds, as coincidence would have it.
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Post by aardvark on Jun 25, 2020 9:40:29 GMT -8
Agreed. Teams with tons of experience (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals) have a tendency to get hot the second half and overtake their respective divisions. 60 games certainly helps the Padres, especially with their lights out bullpen. ZiPS has the Padres at 42% to make the playoffs. Where do you see 42%? I look today, and it's 36%, with 7 teams having a higher chance to make the playoffs than the Padres. The only reason it's even that high is the percentage they assign to the Padres to make the WC, which makes no sense as they also show 7 teams projected to have a better winning percentage than the Padres. Like I said--it's why they play the games. Unless it changes daily.
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It’s on!
Jun 25, 2020 10:01:07 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 25, 2020 10:01:07 GMT -8
ZiPS has the Padres at 42% to make the playoffs. Where do you see 42%? I look today, and it's 36%, with 7 teams having a higher chance to make the playoffs than the Padres. The only reason it's even that high is the percentage they assign to the Padres to make the WC, which makes no sense as they also show 7 teams projected to have a better winning percentage than the Padres. Like I said--it's why they play the games. Unless it changes daily. blogs.fangraphs.com/the-obscenely-late-obscenely-early-zips-projected-standings/
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Post by aardvark on Jun 25, 2020 13:10:46 GMT -8
Where do you see 42%? I look today, and it's 36%, with 7 teams having a higher chance to make the playoffs than the Padres. The only reason it's even that high is the percentage they assign to the Padres to make the WC, which makes no sense as they also show 7 teams projected to have a better winning percentage than the Padres. Like I said--it's why they play the games. Unless it changes daily. blogs.fangraphs.com/the-obscenely-late-obscenely-early-zips-projected-standings/It does change daily--at least on another part of the Fangraphs site. The numbers I listed were from today, which showed the Padres with a 40.7% chance to make the playoffs yesterday, dropping to 36.1% today.
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 25, 2020 13:55:26 GMT -8
It does change daily--at least on another part of the Fangraphs site. The numbers I listed were from today, which showed the Padres with a 40.7% chance to make the playoffs yesterday, dropping to 36.1% today. That's via Depth Charts, which doesn't factor in the amount of variables ZiPS does. I'm siding with Vegas on this one, but we have to get through spring first.
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Post by aardvark on Jun 25, 2020 14:11:50 GMT -8
It does change daily--at least on another part of the Fangraphs site. The numbers I listed were from today, which showed the Padres with a 40.7% chance to make the playoffs yesterday, dropping to 36.1% today. That's via Depth Charts, which doesn't factor in the amount of variables ZiPS does. I'm siding with Vegas on this one, but we have to get through spring first. You're siding with Vegas? What books have them doing well? William Hill has them at 50/1 as of yesterday (to win the WS)--along with the D-Backs, as of yesterday. Only 10 teams with worse odds. But I will say those odds surprise me.
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It’s on!
Jun 25, 2020 14:37:14 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 25, 2020 14:37:14 GMT -8
That's via Depth Charts, which doesn't factor in the amount of variables ZiPS does. I'm siding with Vegas on this one, but we have to get through spring first. You're siding with Vegas? What books have them doing well? William Hill has them at 50/1 as of yesterday (to win the WS)--along with the D-Backs, as of yesterday. Only 10 teams with worse odds. But I will say those odds surprise me. My book had the Padres at +120 to make the postseason, which implies 45.5% probability, which, when you factor in the NL Central, gives the Padres right in the same neighborhood as teams like St. Louis, Chicago, etc. Arizona, by contrast, is +200. So the books seem to believe that the Padres are the 2nd best NL West team by a significant margin.
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Post by aardvark on Jun 25, 2020 15:30:57 GMT -8
You're siding with Vegas? What books have them doing well? William Hill has them at 50/1 as of yesterday (to win the WS)--along with the D-Backs, as of yesterday. Only 10 teams with worse odds. But I will say those odds surprise me. My book had the Padres at +120 to make the postseason, which implies 45.5% probability, which, when you factor in the NL Central, gives the Padres right in the same neighborhood as teams like St. Louis, Chicago, etc. Arizona, by contrast, is +200. So the books seem to believe that the Padres are the 2nd best NL West team by a significant margin. I will be in LV in 2 weeks. I will peruse the books when I get there.
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It’s on!
Jun 25, 2020 15:36:21 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Jun 25, 2020 15:36:21 GMT -8
My book had the Padres at +120 to make the postseason, which implies 45.5% probability, which, when you factor in the NL Central, gives the Padres right in the same neighborhood as teams like St. Louis, Chicago, etc. Arizona, by contrast, is +200. So the books seem to believe that the Padres are the 2nd best NL West team by a significant margin. I will be in LV in 2 weeks. I will peruse the books when I get there. Jealous. Enjoy. Curious to see the experience out there right now.
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Post by aardvark on Jun 25, 2020 16:28:27 GMT -8
I will be in LV in 2 weeks. I will peruse the books when I get there. Jealous. Enjoy. Curious to see the experience out there right now. It should be interesting--that's for sure.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2020 6:09:56 GMT -8
With the small schedule, what do you all see the plan being for say- Gore and Patino?
With the minor league season off, and no need to worry about innings limit restrictions - do we see Gore in the rotation after camp breaks? Pitching out of the pen?
I don't want to put these two on ice, for a year only throwing bullpens and simulated games.
Trammel up as a 5th OF?
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