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Post by Aztec Empire on Mar 1, 2020 23:26:13 GMT -8
That is simply untrue. In the United States H1N1 had a mortality rate of 0.2%. The United States has no COVID-19 moralities so far but if you use cases in Japan and Western European countries, the mortality rate is right around there or lower. The 2% morality rate breathlessly reported everywhere was based on information out of China and included the original Wuhan outbreak where virtually no medical care was given. As new and better data continues to pour in, there is absolutely nothing to indicate COVID-19 is any more deadly than H1N1 when taken as a whole. Only the distribution of the mortality curve is different with COVID-19 being harder on the elderly than H1N1 was, and much easier on the young. H1N1 killed kids and COVID-19 doesn't but COVID-19 makes up for not killing kids by killing even more seniors. The looming American body count from COVID-19 killing 2% of everyone infected was panic talk from when garbage information being provided by an Authoritarian China was all we had to go on. We now know that isn't true. That isn't to say we're all good now. We aren't. H1N1 did kill 12,469 Americans and filled hospitals. Just to bring some of the figures in line with the latest reporting. As per the numbers reported by John Hopkins the current overall mortality rate is 3.4%, with +/-95% of the deaths having occurred in mainland China. It is also worth noting that there have been no deaths in Germany (130 confirmed cases), Singapore (106 confirmed cases), Hong Kong (98 confirmed cases), or Spain(84 confirmed cases). On the other end of the spectrum, Iran is an outlier, with 54 reported deaths and 978 confirmed cases. However, BBC reported yesterday according to their hospital sources, there are 210 confirmed deaths as of yesterday. Western and developed countries outside China who have reported deaths are as follows: Japan: 256 confirmed cases, 6 reported deaths; mortality rate: 2.3%
S. Korea: 4,212 confirmed cases, 22 reported deaths; mortality rate: .5%Italy: 1,694 confirmed cases; 34 reported deaths; mortality rate: 2%U.S.: 86 confirmed cases, 2 reported deaths; mortality rate: 2.3%Australia: 29 confirmed cases, 1 reported death; mortality rate: 3.4%Taiwan: 40 confirmed cases, 1 reported deaths; mortality rate: 2.5%
France: 130 confirmed cases, 2 reported deaths; mortality rate: 1.5%Diamond Princess: 705 confirmed cases, 6 reported deaths; mortality rate: .9% Including both Germany and Spain in the above list tallies to 74 deaths amongst a population of 7,366 confirmed cases - an overall mortality rate of 1%. I think the disparity in numbers from location to location merits discussion. I personally think early recognition and containment is as big a factor as any. Countries that were proactive in effectively screening and quarantining their populations have been able to get out in front of it. The CDC erred by only initially setting up screening points at five airports, of which only two were on the West Coast. I decried at the time how marginally effective this was considering the number of daily flights coming into PDX, SEA, SJC, and SAN from Far East gateway cities - not only nonstops from PEK and PVG, but any of a number of other gateway cities from which people can 1-stop to and from those two. It was a halfassed approach. Now, we're not recognizing community transmission vectors until someone has had the virus long enough to not only become symptomatic but to become so ill as to require hospitalization. As the emergence of community spread including the new cluster in Washington state demonstrates (42 people presumed positive), we are clearly on the trailing end of this trying to play catch-up. It seems possible that this thing lives on in your gut and that you can be reinfected. Also being contagious before you have symptoms could make this thing impossible to control. Better hope the vaccine is found even though it might mutate. I would definitely prepare and have some food and water. Worst case scenario you’ve saved on lunch for the next few months. I hate thinking about the possibility but we’ve gotta be there for eachother if things do get a little wonky for a few months. Hopefully we win the natty and it blows over. Just have a plan. We’ve beaten far worse than this as a country.
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Post by couldashoulda on Mar 2, 2020 7:35:41 GMT -8
Look, something is going to get us all at some point. Worry is useless energy. Just be prudent and practical with your health and your investments...and everything else. Seriously, I wish the best to everybody...and Go Aztecs!
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Post by longtimebooster on Mar 2, 2020 9:20:12 GMT -8
The latest from the L.A. Times. Please know that the National College Players Association was started by a couple of UCLA football players advocating for the unionization and pay of college athletes. The non-profit is probably two guys and a dog in their garage. So take their latest musings with a grain of salt. These guys are a long, long way from being epidemiological experts, nor do they site any in their press release. But the fact that this is being bandied about is disconcerting, as in there's a better than zero-percent chance of games actually being played in front of empty arenas for MM. www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-03-02/ncaa-march-madness-coronavirus-no-fansMarch Madness in empty arenas? Group says NCAA should consider it because of coronavirus An advocacy group is urging the NCAA to have “a serious discussion” about playing March Madness games with no fans in attendance because of concerns over the coronavirus.
The National College Players Assn., a nonprofit group that advocates on behalf of college athletes, issued a statement Saturday asking the NCAA to take numerous steps regarding its college basketball championship tournament and other events in response to the worldwide coronavirus outbreak. The organization suggests such precautions as canceling special events that put players in direct contact with crowds and ensuring that team buses and airplanes are properly sanitized. And then, three paragraphs into the statement, comes the recommendation that is sure to get the most attention. “In regard to the NCAA’s March Madness Tournament and other athletic events, there should be a serious discussion about holding competitions without an audience present.” the NCPA stated. "Google just cancelled a summit in California and Amazon is encouraging its employees to avoid all nonessential travel because of coronavirus concerns. The NCAA and its colleges must act now, there is no time to waste.” The NCAA has not directly acknowledged that particular suggestion but says it is staying on top of the situation. “NCAA staff continues to prepare for all NCAA winter and spring championships, but we are keenly aware of coronavirus and will continue to monitor in coordination with state/local health authorities” and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” NCAA spokesman Greg Johnson said Sunday in a statement to CNN. The NCAA also addresses the coronavirus outbreak on its website. “As they would when confronting any public health crisis, championships staff will add appropriate safeguards in coordination with campus and local health response teams to address concerns about the virus,” the organization stated through its sports science institute. According to Johns Hopkins University, more than 89,000 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed worldwide, including 86 in the U.S.
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Post by junior on Mar 2, 2020 10:09:58 GMT -8
Maybe it's time to call Batman. Or these guys...
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Post by zurac315 on Mar 2, 2020 10:41:22 GMT -8
It is impossible to assign a mortality rate to this disease as no one knows how many people have it.
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Post by survalli on Mar 2, 2020 12:01:08 GMT -8
It is impossible to assign a mortality rate to this disease as no one knows how many people have it. correct. for all we know it might have been here for quite awhile killing people. fyi 3 more died earlier today in WA. bringing the official US death total to 6
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Mar 2, 2020 12:09:07 GMT -8
It is impossible to assign a mortality rate to this disease as no one knows how many people have it. Incorrect. It is most certainly possible to estimate it given the available data; the data set is sufficient both in breadth and depth to do so. The degree of accuracy or certitude with which such estimates may be derived, however, are different questions.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Mar 2, 2020 12:16:38 GMT -8
To continue with the above post, think of calculating the mortality rate as analogous to basketball metrics in the sense that as the season progresses and more data is accrued, the more accurate the metric-based rankings become. So the real question is, is the current and very dynamic measured mortality rate more Massey in December, January, February, etc? Oh, and the number of fatalities in the US is now 6 according to the AP ( link), all from the Washington state cluster.
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Post by survalli on Mar 2, 2020 12:21:15 GMT -8
To continue with the above post, think of calculating the mortality rate as analogous to basketball metrics in the sense that as the season progresses and more data is accrued, the more accurate the metric-based rankings become. So the real question is, is the current and very dynamic measured mortality rate more Massey in December, January, February, etc? Oh, and the number of fatalities in the US is now 6 according to the AP ( link), all from the Washington state cluster. not enough data to reasonably make calculations. 6 dead out of 91 confirmed cases. given that we know not everyone is getting tested its just irresponsible for assigning a metric. we can make assumptions however. Its safe to say the outbreak is not contained, and if you are over the age of 50, i would begin to take per cautions. as for the general panic, (run on costco this weekend) this is real, the global industrial slowdown... this is VERY REAL, and is going to hurt many economies. Also i noticed John Hopkins data is lagging now, US deaths and cases have not been updated, even though the last update was about 3hrs ago. Still holds at 91 confirmed cases and 2 deaths.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Mar 2, 2020 12:29:42 GMT -8
To continue with the above post, think of calculating the mortality rate as analogous to basketball metrics in the sense that as the season progresses and more data is accrued, the more accurate the metric-based rankings become. So the real question is, is the current and very dynamic measured mortality rate more Massey in December, January, February, etc? Oh, and the number of fatalities in the US is now 6 according to the AP ( link), all from the Washington state cluster. not enough data to reasonably make calculations. 6 dead out of 91 confirmed cases. given that we know not everyone is getting tested its just irresponsible for assigning a metric. we can make assumptions however. Its safe to say the outbreak is not contained, and if you are over the age of 50, i would begin to take per cautions. as for the general panic, (run on costco this weekend) this is real, the global industrial slowdown... this is VERY REAL, and is going to hurt many economies. Also i noticed John Hopkins data is lagging now, US deaths and cases have not been updated, even though the last update was about 3hrs ago. Still holds at 91 confirmed cases and 2 deaths. You are correct in we cannot deduce anything meaningful from the 6 reported deaths and 91 confirmed cases. I would suggest a larger data set? Courtesy of John Hopkins: ETA: Good points regarding the secondary and tertiary outcomes/consequences are every bit as important to monitor and consider as the virus itself.
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Post by twobits on Mar 2, 2020 13:37:34 GMT -8
Seems that we shouldn't be counting the confirmed cases as the denominator for mortality rate...instead using confirmed cases that have recovered.
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Post by survalli on Mar 2, 2020 14:22:40 GMT -8
Seems that we shouldn't be counting the confirmed cases as the denominator for mortality rate...instead using confirmed cases that have recovered. if its confirmed that the Virus can reoccur in someone who has "recovered," (as theorized) that would be a game changer, and the numbers of recovered can also not be trusted.
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Post by Den60 on Mar 2, 2020 14:25:54 GMT -8
It is impossible to assign a mortality rate to this disease as no one knows how many people have it. Exactly. Many have mild symptoms and people with mild symptoms in the middle of cold and flu season are unlikely to go to the doctor so the number of cases reported out there is under-reported. This virus seems to spread easier than SARS or MERS, however, and those with pre-existing medical problems (especially cardiovascular issues) are most at risk. It is a problem but I think it is being over-hyped.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Mar 2, 2020 14:31:11 GMT -8
While entirely preliminary and likely to change, the following was pulled from the WHO-China Joint Mission Report published on 24 Feb: LinkAs you can see, they provide the figure with the caveat that, as others have alluded to, is likely not representative of what we will have measured by the time this has passed. IMO the important takeaway is the importance of early precautionary measures (read: not stupid human panic sh¡t), such as everything the CDC recommends (e.g., frequent hand washing) as well as limiting exposure. Early in the epidemic, when patients aren't getting diagnosed until their symptoms have advanced, the CFR was over 2300% higher than it was by the time the Chinese government adapted more efficient treatment and containment measures to get out in front of it.
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Post by North County Aztec on Mar 4, 2020 12:56:10 GMT -8
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Post by aztecandrew on Mar 4, 2020 14:15:09 GMT -8
If someone is carrying around the virus, and doesn’t know it, they are probably going to have contact with other people whether they are at a basketball game or not. If I cough or sneeze at a basketball game, is that going to be any worse than if I cough or sneeze at church, a movie theater, or in line buying groceries. That cough or sneeze only has a certain radius so whether there is 13,000 outside of that radius or 17 people outside of it, it shouldn’t really matter.
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Post by survalli on Mar 4, 2020 14:29:02 GMT -8
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Post by aztecking on Mar 4, 2020 19:21:22 GMT -8
If someone is carrying around the virus, and doesn’t know it, they are probably going to have contact with other people whether they are at a basketball game or not. If I cough or sneeze at a basketball game, is that going to be any worse than if I cough or sneeze at church, a movie theater, or in line buying groceries. That cough or sneeze only has a certain radius so whether there is 13,000 outside of that radius or 17 people outside of it, it shouldn’t really matter. Except you are likely to cough or sneeze more than once. So over the course of a game you have the potential to infect a lot more people in a packed arena than at a grocery store.
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Post by pbaztec on Mar 4, 2020 20:21:44 GMT -8
I am not worrying about it.
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Post by theoracle on Mar 4, 2020 20:30:39 GMT -8
Oh you will........you will, alright. I am not worrying about it.
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