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Post by AzTex on Feb 28, 2020 13:31:57 GMT -8
Shouldn't this b moved to another topic? If you mean the Off Topic forum, then yes, absolutely, for sure, definitely, etc.
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Post by obboy13 on Feb 28, 2020 13:40:02 GMT -8
All I can say is it’s very real out here in Japan. Almost every event involving a crowd is getting cancelled and the government just announced yesterday that all elementary, middle and high schools in the country will be shut down from 3/4 until the kids come back from spring break in mid April. How working parents are going to deal with this is going to be challenging, but this is either a knee jerk reaction or there’s convincing data causing concern initially triggering this announcement. The government totally botched not shutting down entry from China before CNY and completely were utterly careless in their handling of the cruise ship though. Now idiots are so concerned about lack of imports from China so they’re buying up all the masks, wipes and now toilet paper if you can believe that. And this country invented the fancy ass spraying/drying toilets. Who needs toilet paper right? Anybody who lived through a couple of Longshoreman's Union strikes that pretty much sealed off imports to Hawaii, knows that toilet paper is the first commodity to disappear from the shelves.
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Post by azteca on Feb 28, 2020 14:17:41 GMT -8
Shouldn't this b moved to another topic? Definitely!
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Post by Aztec Empire on Feb 28, 2020 14:48:20 GMT -8
You don't have to be a doctor to know about bio stuff. The SARS outbreak in 2003 had a mortality rate of 7-8% and this Coronavirus has a mortality rate of about 2%. Those most at risk are the oldest in the population. The seasonal flu will kill and sicken more people in the US, by far, than this Coronavirus. Coronavirus is nothing new, only this strain. There's no way to develop and mass produce a vaccine in time for this outbreak. We pretty much know the components of the seasonal flu every year and so have a head start and can make educated guesses on next year's strain to create and mass produce a vaccine, yet mostly these vaccines are only mildly effective. It's very challenging for a novel strain like this COVID-19. The biggest concern should be financial. Sure, there will be a drop in spending and production since China has closed some factories and people, especially in China, are cutting back on things like travel and entertainment. But the biggest concern is the financial institutions who have been levered to the hilt in search of yield after years and years of quantitative easing and low interest rates. Stuff like mortgage backed securities that sound good - but a diversified pile of poo is still a pile of poo. Should be interesting what becomes of this in terms of the economy. I agree with your assessment of the economic impact but I think you’re vastly underestimating the potential risk of this thing. Reinfection seems possible, people with no symptoms may be infectious, and it looks to be wildly more contagious than the flu and SARS since it seems clear that it is an aerosolized disease meaning that it can live and infect through the air instead of just from close proximity fluid contact. I haven’t seen a solid argument for why we would be able to control an outbreak of something with those qualities. I’m right at the top of the list of people who are constantly skeptical of the news and their hyperbolic lying ridiculousness but if you have been following for the last two months what this thing is capable of and how drastic the measures have been that China has used, I think it’s logical to expect this to be a very prevalent outbreak. 2% of untold millions is a lot more healthcare weight and death potential than simply the flu or SARS. Also the long incubation period and the quarantine factor could potentially shut down cities in a worst case scenario. My hope is that we are still a few months away from situations like that and we can get through the basketball season before it hits, but it seems like a when versus if situation and i would be prepared for that possibility.
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Post by Aztec Empire on Feb 28, 2020 14:49:54 GMT -8
www.ft.com/content/ed3fb63e-41ce-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433dTo clarify 400k people die a year from influenza which will morph the amount of people who will die from covid-19. My point being is the same hygiene precautions you take now are the same ones you would take with corona. So yes the mortality rates will be higher with corona but the typical flu spreads farther and kills more people. The flu sucks in any form and I pray for those who have contracted covid-19. I It is very possible that the only reason “the flu spreads farther” is because it’s been around for years. This thing is literally a few months old. The contagiousness factor seems absurdly higher than the flu.
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Post by Aztec Empire on Feb 28, 2020 14:51:52 GMT -8
Shouldn't this b moved to another topic? If you mean the Off Topic forum, then yes, absolutely, for sure, definitely, etc. TBF I think the point is that this thing has the potential to disrupt the basketball season so it is somewhat on topic. I’m hoping it doesn’t reach that level until a few months after the season ends.
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Feb 28, 2020 15:07:18 GMT -8
LTB, I don't mean to pick on you but your post has the most stuff in it so I'm using it to dispel a lot of the misinformation floating around. coronavirus could be 20x more deadly (putting it at 2%.) The important part is "could be". In Japan and Italy we aren't seeing rates anywhere near 2% mortality. It more likely China and Iran have undercounted their infected which inflates their mortality rate. unlike influenza, SARS kills plenty of young, healthy people So far kids under 9 years of age have have a 100% COVID-19 survival rate. There have been zero reported COVID-19 kid deaths worldwide. If 58 million Americans fall ill from coronavirus, there would be over 1 million deaths. You should have stuck with "could be", and every day it is looking less likely. Coronavirus is nothing new, only this strain. Not true. The SARS virus had never before been seen in a human population until 2003. It's a novel virus. You're both correct. The coronavirus typically comes in 4 subgroups: alpha, beta, delta, and gamma with only alpha and beta being able to infect humans. The previous SARS (SARS-CoV) and MERS (MERS-CoV) virus were both beta subgroup coronaviruses. COVID-19 is a completely new coronavirus. It is not alpha, beta, delta, or gamma. COVID-19 does not fit in any coronavirus subgroup. It is novel, but it is also a new strain of coronavirus. There's no way to develop and mass produce a vaccine in time for this outbreak. Very true. A vaccine isn't imminent and may never be developed. There is already a vaccine for COVID-19 and as of 4 days ago it is in the hands of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) for human trials. Testing on the vaccine is slated to take 13 months before being allowed for use by the public. If people started dropping dead in the US in big numbers, that schedule would likely be significantly accelerated. Moderna believes they can churn out doses in the millions almost immediately after government approval. investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-ships-mrna-vaccine-against-novel-coronavirus-mrna-1273
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Post by rebar619 on Feb 28, 2020 15:14:02 GMT -8
Mobile World Congress in Barcelona was cancelled. The Milan Furniture Show. Rugby matches. Pilgrimage sites in Mecca and Medina. Facebook developers conference. Carnivals in Nice and Venice. And, of course, organizers in Tokyo are now saying that if the Covid-19 outbreak isn't contained by mid-May, the 2020 Summer Games, slated for July/August, will be axed. And right now there are students under quarantine at UC Davis and two Sacramento-area community colleges. Could it be that Crazy Joe wasn't so crazy after all? Is it possible that his decade-long rants about the coming bird flu pandemic were right? Could it be just SDSU's luck that the NCAA Tournament at some point gets washed out? It sounds far fetched -- crazy even -- but is it time to start pondering the possibilities? Asking for a friend. If things get back I could see the games be played with no fans in attendance. That would be a weird game to watch on TV.
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Post by biotec on Feb 28, 2020 15:37:48 GMT -8
Al-O-Meter: RNA-based therapeutics have long held promise (see all the different approaches: antisense, RNA interference, siRNAs, microRNAs) but the problem that no one has been really unable to solve is the delivery of the RNAs to the cells. They are easily chewed up. Moderna looks like they only have phase I and phase II drugs, which only require safety, not efficacy. It's a LONG road to phase 3 results.
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Post by survalli on Feb 28, 2020 15:43:56 GMT -8
LTB, I don't mean to pick on you but your post has the most stuff in it so I'm using it to dispel a lot of the misinformation floating around. coronavirus could be 20x more deadly (putting it at 2%.) The important part is "could be". In Japan and Italy we aren't seeing rates anywhere near 2% mortality. It more likely China and Iran have undercounted their infected which inflates their mortality rate. unlike influenza, SARS kills plenty of young, healthy people So far kids under 9 years of age have have a 100% COVID-19 survival rate. There have been zero reported COVID-19 kid deaths worldwide. If 58 million Americans fall ill from coronavirus, there would be over 1 million deaths. You should have stuck with "could be", and every day it is looking less likely. Not true. The SARS virus had never before been seen in a human population until 2003. It's a novel virus. You're both correct. The coronavirus typically comes in 4 subgroups: alpha, beta, delta, and gamma with only alpha and beta being able to infect humans. The previous SARS (SARS-CoV) and MERS (MERS-CoV) virus were both beta subgroup coronaviruses. COVID-19 is a completely new coronavirus. It is not alpha, beta, delta, or gamma. COVID-19 does not fit in any coronavirus subgroup. It is novel, but it is also a new strain of coronavirus. Very true. A vaccine isn't imminent and may never be developed. There is already a vaccine for COVID-19 and as of 4 days ago it is in the hands of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) for human trials. Testing on the vaccine is slated to take 13 months before being allowed for use by the public. If people started dropping dead in the US in big numbers, that schedule would likely be significantly accelerated. Moderna believes they can churn out doses in the millions almost immediately after government approval. investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-ships-mrna-vaccine-against-novel-coronavirus-mrna-1273so much disinformation in this post. glaring one is no kids under 9 have died from the virus. kids have died in Wuhan. as far as determining the mortality rate its irresponsible of anyone right now to speculate what that rate is with the current lack of test kits available. With respect to Moderna, do your DD on that company and you will find they have done absolutely nothing to date with their mRNA therapeutics. What makes anyone think that they have found the cure so quickly, when it took months and months to do the same for SARS?
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Post by junior on Feb 28, 2020 16:13:20 GMT -8
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Post by sportnlyf on Feb 28, 2020 16:46:07 GMT -8
Please change the title of this thread. The teasing reference to Aztec Joe led me to believe this was going to include an update on his often repeated contention that "The team with the most Samoans will usually win!"
As a result, he should love our four recruits at linebacker!
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 28, 2020 16:49:28 GMT -8
Some people might call me a germ phobic. For several years now I have become uber aware of what I am touching during cold and flu season, including my own face! I use my elbows to open doors, carry paper towels or napkins with me to avoid touching surfaces where others have touched, etc. I also get my annual flu shot. Germ phobic or just common sense (knocking on wood), I haven't been sick in years. I even gave up my gym membership (talk about a human petri dish!) and work out at home. If the Coronavirus hits San Diego County in a big way, I will carry on just as I have been for the past several years. Regarding the stock market...I have been handling my own stock investments for about the past 20 years. I am knowledgeable, subscribing to and reading a variety of financial publications. But, I am no expert. Even the "experts" really have no clue what is causing, or will cause, the markets to move in one direction or another. The market was ripe for a correction from a purely technical standpoint. This bull market run of 11 years has been somewhat unprecedented. The market has been in overbought condition for months, long before COVID-19 became news. The market was just waiting for such an event. It has accomplished what the China trade war could not. Additionally, as Jim Cramer pointed out this morning on CNBC, this correction is the product of biological event, not a financial event. Yes, company's bottom lines will suffer in the short term, but in the bigger picture, good solid companies will still be good solid companies. If you are on the brink of retirement, you shouldn't be hugely exposed to the stock market anyway. If you have 5-10 years or more to retirement, just keep dollar cost averaging into your 401K or IRA and that 10% historical return of the S & P 500 will resume. And, smarter people than me will have decide what is in the best interest of the general public! I don't think it is a coincidence that the drop was not long after the betting markets starting seeing Sanders as the democrat nominee.
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Post by johneaztec on Feb 28, 2020 16:59:07 GMT -8
Please change the title of this thread. The teasing reference to Aztec Joe led me to believe this was going to include an update on his often repeated contention that "The team with the most Samoans will usually win!" As a result, he should love our four recruits at linebacker! Too funny, ol Joe.
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Post by AzTex on Feb 28, 2020 17:20:48 GMT -8
If you mean the Off Topic forum, then yes, absolutely, for sure, definitely, etc. TBF I think the point is that this thing has the potential to disrupt the basketball season so it is somewhat on topic. I’m hoping it doesn’t reach that level until a few months after the season ends. If that was the focus of the thread I might agree with you. However, the posts discussing the connection with the Aztecs and the basketball season are few and far between.
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Post by zurac315 on Feb 28, 2020 17:23:08 GMT -8
Some people might call me a germ phobic. For several years now I have become uber aware of what I am touching during cold and flu season, including my own face! I use my elbows to open doors, carry paper towels or napkins with me to avoid touching surfaces where others have touched, etc. I also get my annual flu shot. Germ phobic or just common sense (knocking on wood), I haven't been sick in years. I even gave up my gym membership (talk about a human petri dish!) and work out at home. If the Coronavirus hits San Diego County in a big way, I will carry on just as I have been for the past several years. Regarding the stock market...I have been handling my own stock investments for about the past 20 years. I am knowledgeable, subscribing to and reading a variety of financial publications. But, I am no expert. Even the "experts" really have no clue what is causing, or will cause, the markets to move in one direction or another. The market was ripe for a correction from a purely technical standpoint. This bull market run of 11 years has been somewhat unprecedented. The market has been in overbought condition for months, long before COVID-19 became news. The market was just waiting for such an event. It has accomplished what the China trade war could not. Additionally, as Jim Cramer pointed out this morning on CNBC, this correction is the product of biological event, not a financial event. Yes, company's bottom lines will suffer in the short term, but in the bigger picture, good solid companies will still be good solid companies. If you are on the brink of retirement, you shouldn't be hugely exposed to the stock market anyway. If you have 5-10 years or more to retirement, just keep dollar cost averaging into your 401K or IRA and that 10% historical return of the S & P 500 will resume. And, smarter people than me will have decide what is in the best interest of the general public! I don't think it is a coincidence that the drop was not long after the betting markets starting seeing Sanders as the democrat nominee. Oh, yeah. It's all Bernie Sander's fault. If Bernie wins the nomination, based on your logic the markets should go up as it is not likely that he could win. It clearly had nothing to do with the feared disruption in supply chains around the world. Companies and investors aren't afraid of economic disruptions caused by a pandemic they're afraid of Bernie. Ha, ha, ya' kill me!
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Post by Aztec Empire on Feb 28, 2020 17:56:39 GMT -8
I don't think it is a coincidence that the drop was not long after the betting markets starting seeing Sanders as the democrat nominee. Oh, yeah. It's all Bernie Sander's fault. If Bernie wins the nomination, based on your logic the markets should go up as it is not likely that he could win. It clearly had nothing to do with the feared disruption in supply chains around the world. Companies and investors aren't afraid of economic disruptions caused by a pandemic they're afraid of Bernie. Ha, ha, ya' kill me! Nah the markets don’t think Bernie can win, but if they did they would plummet separately
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Feb 28, 2020 18:36:08 GMT -8
so much disinformation in this post. glaring one is no kids under 9 have died from the virus. kids have died in Wuhan. Show me a report of kids dying from this virus. From the article titled 'The coronavirus seems to be mild in most children, but scientists are not sure why' is the line "Some good news on the coronavirus front: So far, it has not killed any children under age 10." www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus-children-death-flu-immune-20200219.htmlas far as determining the mortality rate its irresponsible of anyone right now to speculate what that rate is with the current lack of test kits available. Yes, exactly. And as more testing kits become available the rate mortality drops because it is easy to test for death. Even with the lack of testing kits the mortality rate from those tested positive in western countries and Japan is below the 2% being reported and falling. What makes anyone think that they have found the cure so quickly, when it took months and months to do the same for SARS? Because the Spike(S) protein being targeted is the same. It takes a long time to do something the first time, less time to do it a second.
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Post by aztecking on Feb 28, 2020 19:05:07 GMT -8
Some people might call me a germ phobic. For several years now I have become uber aware of what I am touching during cold and flu season, including my own face! I use my elbows to open doors, carry paper towels or napkins with me to avoid touching surfaces where others have touched, etc. I also get my annual flu shot. Germ phobic or just common sense (knocking on wood), I haven't been sick in years. I even gave up my gym membership (talk about a human petri dish!) and work out at home. If the Coronavirus hits San Diego County in a big way, I will carry on just as I have been for the past several years. Regarding the stock market...I have been handling my own stock investments for about the past 20 years. I am knowledgeable, subscribing to and reading a variety of financial publications. But, I am no expert. Even the "experts" really have no clue what is causing, or will cause, the markets to move in one direction or another. The market was ripe for a correction from a purely technical standpoint. This bull market run of 11 years has been somewhat unprecedented. The market has been in overbought condition for months, long before COVID-19 became news. The market was just waiting for such an event. It has accomplished what the China trade war could not. Additionally, as Jim Cramer pointed out this morning on CNBC, this correction is the product of biological event, not a financial event. Yes, company's bottom lines will suffer in the short term, but in the bigger picture, good solid companies will still be good solid companies. If you are on the brink of retirement, you shouldn't be hugely exposed to the stock market anyway. If you have 5-10 years or more to retirement, just keep dollar cost averaging into your 401K or IRA and that 10% historical return of the S & P 500 will resume. And, smarter people than me will have decide what is in the best interest of the general public! I don't think it is a coincidence that the drop was not long after the betting markets starting seeing Sanders as the democrat nominee. The market drop this week is not cause of Sanders. I think that is pretty clear based on the sudden severity of the drop and all the other information this week.
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Post by mauiwowie on Feb 28, 2020 21:52:17 GMT -8
What would be the ultimate curse of San Diego is the Aztecs Win to get to the Final Four and then the Finals are cancelled cause of the Virus
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