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Post by aztecking on Feb 28, 2020 9:54:32 GMT -8
Not true. Flu is caused by the influenza virus. Coronavirus is a newly formed virus that likely jumped from wild animals into the human population. Human immune systems are not acclimated or prepared for this novel virus. Unlike the flu, the coronavirus is a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pathogen. As for a vaccine, the CDC said yesterday that any vaccine is a year or more away from development and deployment. Having said that, scientists never did develop a vaccine for the first SARS epidemic that broke out in China and a few other countries in the early 2000s before quickly dissipating. It doesn't appear we'll be so lucky this time. I disagree with the 1 or more years prediction by the cdc but whatever. Bottom line is the seasonal flu is just as potent virus and the traditional methods to protect yourself are just as effective: Wash your hands routinely Use Lysol to disinfect your house Use disinfectant wipes on all surfaces If you have a fever and flu like symptoms see your doctor and then stay home. Get vaccinated That's just blatantly false and it’s dangerous to be spreading misinformation. This coronavirus is far more “potent” than seasonal flu. This coronavirus has a mortality rate of 2-3% whereas seasonal flu is around 0.1%, so it’s 20-30 times more “potent”. It also spreads a lot easier than seasonal flu. 1 coronavirus patient infects about 3 other people on average whereas seasonal flu patients infect about 1.5 people on average.
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 10:26:01 GMT -8
I disagree with the 1 or more years prediction by the cdc but whatever. Bottom line is the seasonal flu is just as potent virus and the traditional methods to protect yourself are just as effective: Wash your hands routinely Use Lysol to disinfect your house Use disinfectant wipes on all surfaces If you have a fever and flu like symptoms see your doctor and then stay home. Get vaccinated That's just blatantly false and it’s dangerous to be spreading misinformation. This coronavirus is far more “potent” than seasonal flu. This coronavirus has a mortality rate of 2-3% whereas seasonal flu is around 0.1%, so it’s 20-30 times more “potent”. It also spreads a lot easier than seasonal flu. 1 coronavirus patient infects about 3 other people on average whereas seasonal flu patients infect about 1.5 people on average. www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html
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Post by hoobs on Feb 28, 2020 10:27:24 GMT -8
More likely that the Games go on, but "behind closed doors",i.e. zero attendance but still broadcast worldwide ($$$). That would be exceptionally weird. Yes and no... I bet a lot of people watching TV would hardly notice. Would be weirder for the althetes than those of us watching on TV. Oh, and it would massively suck for the hotels (plus restaurants & etc in the tourism/hospitality industry) in Japan counting on the massive revenue coming from the 4 weeks of the games that would be 90% wiped out. But watching gymnastics, track & field, basketball (other than no crowd noise), volleyball on TV... pretty meh in terms of impact. And like docmm said, it's already happening in sports and we're going to see more of it before the spread slows down / starts to get contained in... I'll guess 3 months.
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 10:27:29 GMT -8
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Post by aztecking on Feb 28, 2020 10:32:38 GMT -8
That's just blatantly false and it’s dangerous to be spreading misinformation. This coronavirus is far more “potent” than seasonal flu. This coronavirus has a mortality rate of 2-3% whereas seasonal flu is around 0.1%, so it’s 20-30 times more “potent”. It also spreads a lot easier than seasonal flu. 1 coronavirus patient infects about 3 other people on average whereas seasonal flu patients infect about 1.5 people on average. www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.htmlThat says literally nothing about morbidity, mortality, or infectivity. What’s your point?
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 10:36:45 GMT -8
www.ft.com/content/ed3fb63e-41ce-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433dTo clarify 400k people die a year from influenza which will morph the amount of people who will die from covid-19. My point being is the same hygiene precautions you take now are the same ones you would take with corona. So yes the mortality rates will be higher with corona but the typical flu spreads farther and kills more people. The flu sucks in any form and I pray for those who have contracted covid-19. I
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 10:39:28 GMT -8
The original poster was discussing about cancelling march madness.
If you think it is necessary to cancel March madness then you should also think you should cancel anything that people congregate to reduce exposure.
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 28, 2020 10:39:41 GMT -8
That would be exceptionally weird. Yes and no... I bet a lot of people watching TV would hardly notice. Would be weirder for the althetes than those of us watching on TV. Oh, and it would massively suck for the hotels (plus restaurants & etc in the tourism/hospitality industry) in Japan counting on the massive revenue coming from the 4 weeks of the games that would be 90% wiped out. But watching gymnastics, track & field, basketball (other than no crowd noise), volleyball on TV... pretty meh in terms of impact. And like docmm said, it's already happening in sports and we're going to see more of it before the spread slows down / starts to get contained in... I'll guess 3 months. Maybe they could do like the old radio guys who used to broadcast recreations of MLB games based on the box scores, etc. I believe Ronald Reagan used to do that for Cubs games at a station in Iowa. They were complete with crowd noise and someone whacking a bat against a table, etc. Pretty funny in retrospect, but they drew a big audience. For the Olympics, they could have CGI crowds and a soundtrack of crowd noice.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 28, 2020 11:00:18 GMT -8
The original poster was discussing about cancelling march madness. If you think it is necessary to cancel March madness then you should also think you should cancel anything that people congregate to reduce exposure.Which is exactly what is and has been taking place in two of the three world's largest economies, as well as in (northern) Italy, Saudi Arabia, an Iran, as well as in the examples referenced in the OP. And this is why the CDC yesterday issued a statement advising businesses and schools - you know, places where people gather - to develop and anticipate the possible implementation of plans to conduct both education and business-related activities remotely. www.ft.com/content/ed3fb63e-41ce-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433dTo clarify 400k people die a year from influenza which will morph the amount of people who will die from covid-19. My point being is the same hygiene precautions you take now are the same ones you would take with corona. So yes the mortality rates will be higher with corona but the typical flu spreads farther and kills more people. I "To clarify," the latest estimates on the number of global deaths attributed to the flu range from just under 300,000 to 640,000 each year ( source). I think you meant to say "dwarf" instead of morph. However, to make that claim and/or the flu will kill more people is simply ignorant of the risk presented by Covid-19 and disconnected from the reality of the situation. The CDC estimates that the flu kills about 56,000 Americans each year. Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people in San Diego County alone.
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 11:09:33 GMT -8
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 11:12:00 GMT -8
The original poster was discussing about cancelling march madness. If you think it is necessary to cancel March madness then you should also think you should cancel anything that people congregate to reduce exposure.Which is exactly what is and has been taking place in two of the three world's largest economies, as well as in (northern) Italy, Saudi Arabia, an Iran, as well as in the examples referenced in the OP. And this is why the CDC yesterday issued a statement advising businesses and schools - you know, places where people gather - to develop and anticipate the possible implementation of plans to conduct both education and business-related activities remotely. www.ft.com/content/ed3fb63e-41ce-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433dTo clarify 400k people die a year from influenza which will morph the amount of people who will die from covid-19. My point being is the same hygiene precautions you take now are the same ones you would take with corona. So yes the mortality rates will be higher with corona but the typical flu spreads farther and kills more people. I "To clarify," the latest estimates on the number of global deaths attributed to the flu range from just under 300,000 to 640,000 each year ( source). I think you meant to say "dwarf" instead of morph. However, to make that claim and/or the flu will kill more people is simply ignorant of the risk presented by Covid-19 and disconnected from the reality of the situation. The CDC estimates that the flu kills about 56,000 Americans each year. Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people in San Diego County alone. If you honestly believe that covid-19 could potentially kill 60k people in San Diego then I suggest you tent up your house and live in a hazmat suit.
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Post by aztecfred on Feb 28, 2020 11:31:47 GMT -8
Shouldn't this b moved to another topic?
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 28, 2020 11:38:03 GMT -8
Which is exactly what is and has been taking place in two of the three world's largest economies, as well as in (northern) Italy, Saudi Arabia, an Iran, as well as in the examples referenced in the OP. And this is why the CDC yesterday issued a statement advising businesses and schools - you know, places where people gather - to develop and anticipate the possible implementation of plans to conduct both education and business-related activities remotely. "To clarify," the latest estimates on the number of global deaths attributed to the flu range from just under 300,000 to 640,000 each year ( source). I think you meant to say "dwarf" instead of morph. However, to make that claim and/or the flu will kill more people is simply ignorant of the risk presented by Covid-19 and disconnected from the reality of the situation. The CDC estimates that the flu kills about 56,000 Americans each year. Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people in San Diego County alone. If you honestly believe that covid-19 could potentially kill 60k people in San Diego then I suggest you tent up your house and live in a hazmat suit. I don't think the numbers will be that high - rather that's a simple extrapolation of established mortality rates assuming every resident in the county is exposed, which will not be the case. A more reasonable estimation for exposure would be 20% of the population, which is the percentage of the population that contracts the flu every year. While Covid-19 is potentially more virulent and contagious, I would imagine the preventative steps that will be taken at both the individual and institutional levels will offset this to some degree. So I would thus estimate (read: more of a WAG) that Covid-19 has the potential to result in somewhere around 10K (and not more than 20K) deaths in the county by the time is all said and done. As my wife and I are both of good health, I am more concerned about my parents and remaining grandparent than I am about us. However, our travel plans to go to India and Scotland in several months are on hold pending how the situation develops.
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Post by chris92065 on Feb 28, 2020 11:55:00 GMT -8
If you honestly believe that covid-19 could potentially kill 60k people in San Diego then I suggest you tent up your house and live in a hazmat suit. I don't think the numbers will be that high - rather that's a simple extrapolation of established mortality rates assuming every resident in the county is exposed, which will not be the case. A more reasonable estimation for exposure would be 20% of the population, which is the percentage of the population that contracts the flu every year. While Covid-19 is potentially more virulent and contagious, I would imagine the preventative steps that will be taken at both the individual and institutional levels will offset this to some degree. So I would thus estimate (read: more of a WAG) that Covid-19 has the potential to result in somewhere around 10K (and not more than 20K) deaths in the county by the time is all said and done. As my wife and I are both of good health, I am more concerned about my parents and remaining grandparent than I am about us. However, our travel plans to go to India and Scotland in several months are on hold pending how the situation develops. Sorry man. I went to far with my sarcasm. I hope you can make your trips and your parents are ok.
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Post by aztecking on Feb 28, 2020 12:01:57 GMT -8
I don't think the numbers will be that high - rather that's a simple extrapolation of established mortality rates assuming every resident in the county is exposed, which will not be the case. A more reasonable estimation for exposure would be 20% of the population, which is the percentage of the population that contracts the flu every year. While Covid-19 is potentially more virulent and contagious, I would imagine the preventative steps that will be taken at both the individual and institutional levels will offset this to some degree. So I would thus estimate (read: more of a WAG) that Covid-19 has the potential to result in somewhere around 10K (and not more than 20K) deaths in the county by the time is all said and done. As my wife and I are both of good health, I am more concerned about my parents and remaining grandparent than I am about us. However, our travel plans to go to India and Scotland in several months are on hold pending how the situation develops. Sorry man. I went to far with my sarcasm. I hope you can make your trips and your parents are ok. The numbers out of China for mortality by age range are scary for older people. 60-69 had about 3.5% die, 70-79 about 9%, and 80-89 about 15% die from coronavirus. I too am more worried about my parents potentially having issues than myself as I am in a low risk group.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 28, 2020 12:17:37 GMT -8
I don't think the numbers will be that high - rather that's a simple extrapolation of established mortality rates assuming every resident in the county is exposed, which will not be the case. A more reasonable estimation for exposure would be 20% of the population, which is the percentage of the population that contracts the flu every year. While Covid-19 is potentially more virulent and contagious, I would imagine the preventative steps that will be taken at both the individual and institutional levels will offset this to some degree. So I would thus estimate (read: more of a WAG) that Covid-19 has the potential to result in somewhere around 10K (and not more than 20K) deaths in the county by the time is all said and done. As my wife and I are both of good health, I am more concerned about my parents and remaining grandparent than I am about us. However, our travel plans to go to India and Scotland in several months are on hold pending how the situation develops. Sorry man. I went to far with my sarcasm. I hope you can make your trips and your parents are ok. Lol. No you didn't (I appreciate the sentiments tho ). Tbh, we've made similar jokes ourselves. And I get no small amount of pleasure of when I see and embrace family/friends asking, "wait - you don't have coronavirus, do you?" And when they invariably and often emphatically answer, "No," I say, "WELL YOU DO NOW!" Good fun. Anyway, re: this particular pathogen, all I can say - and with all sincerity - is don't take it lightly. There is a fine line between preparedness and panic, and being the certifiably f*cktarded animals we are, we tend to automatically skew towards the latter.* But there is no shortage of adages that speak to the wisdom of preparedness (e.g., "a stitch in time saves nine"), and coming from a risk mitigation background it's something of a default setting. We bought (boxes of) masks in mid-Jan, and since that time have been taking daily immune boosters. *In the outbreak of a pandemic, the pathogen serves as both a direct risk as well as force multiplier to exacerbate the effects of other outcomes with their own respective ripple effects as we're witnessing this week in the financial markets.
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Post by survalli on Feb 28, 2020 12:58:05 GMT -8
this maybe the biggest event in our life time. latest news reports are troubling to say the least. Dogs and other animals are able to get infected and transmit the virus. recurrence of the virus reported in Israel by a man who was considered "recovered" by Japan. clear loss of containment worldwide. an unknown mortality/detection rate because of an overall lack of testing kids. lack of infrastructure able to treat and monitor a pandemic of this proportions. gradual global collapse of industry and the supply chain. stocks on a downward trajectory. strap in guys its going to get bumpy. No vaccine yet.
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Post by biotec on Feb 28, 2020 13:10:52 GMT -8
Nice.
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Post by TheSanDiegan on Feb 28, 2020 13:12:11 GMT -8
Can anybody hoop in one of these?
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Post by couldashoulda on Feb 28, 2020 13:29:36 GMT -8
Some people might call me a germ phobic. For several years now I have become uber aware of what I am touching during cold and flu season, including my own face! I use my elbows to open doors, carry paper towels or napkins with me to avoid touching surfaces where others have touched, etc. I also get my annual flu shot. Germ phobic or just common sense (knocking on wood), I haven't been sick in years. I even gave up my gym membership (talk about a human petri dish!) and work out at home. If the Coronavirus hits San Diego County in a big way, I will carry on just as I have been for the past several years.
Regarding the stock market...I have been handling my own stock investments for about the past 20 years. I am knowledgeable, subscribing to and reading a variety of financial publications. But, I am no expert. Even the "experts" really have no clue what is causing, or will cause, the markets to move in one direction or another. The market was ripe for a correction from a purely technical standpoint. This bull market run of 11 years has been somewhat unprecedented. The market has been in overbought condition for months, long before COVID-19 became news. The market was just waiting for such an event. It has accomplished what the China trade war could not. Additionally, as Jim Cramer pointed out this morning on CNBC, this correction is the product of biological event, not a financial event. Yes, company's bottom lines will suffer in the short term, but in the bigger picture, good solid companies will still be good solid companies. If you are on the brink of retirement, you shouldn't be hugely exposed to the stock market anyway. If you have 5-10 years or more to retirement, just keep dollar cost averaging into your 401K or IRA and that 10% historical return of the S & P 500 will resume.
And, smarter people than me will have decide what is in the best interest of the general public!
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