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Post by aztecryan on Feb 21, 2020 10:04:36 GMT -8
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Post by aardvark on Feb 21, 2020 11:11:57 GMT -8
There also projections that have the Padres at 83 wins, and another at 79 wins. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 21, 2020 14:11:59 GMT -8
There also projections that have the Padres at 83 wins, and another at 79 wins. Well aware. But ZiPS actually incorporates thousands of simulations that include a lot of variables most projection models don't, especially when it comes to minor leaguers. As an example, Gore's projected to be worth 2 WAR in 92 innings, which amounts to the Padre's third best starter. Most of the other models aren't capable of projecting that far. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Feb 21, 2020 16:38:57 GMT -8
Machado was eaten alive by Petco Park (.212) while Hosmer has added 60 K’s per year since his KC days. That needs to improve to take the pressure off the inexperienced SP. Tatis and Pham will hopefully drive the offensive production to respectability.
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 21, 2020 17:16:35 GMT -8
Machado was eaten alive by Petco Park (.212) while Hosmer has added 60 K’s per year since his KC days. That needs to improve to take the pressure off the inexperienced SP. Tatis and Pham will hopefully drive the offensive production to respectability. Once Manny's BABIP stabilizes at home, I think he'll bounce back big time. He was really unlucky at Petco in 2019, but had the highest hard hit rate of his career. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Feb 23, 2020 0:40:55 GMT -8
I’m more of a show me kind of person. It’s just talk until you do it.
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 23, 2020 10:07:22 GMT -8
I’m more of a show me kind of person. It’s just talk until you do it. Then you probably shouldn't quote batting averages without context. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Feb 23, 2020 16:36:40 GMT -8
I’m more of a show me kind of person. It’s just talk until you do it. Then you probably shouldn't quote batting averages without context. I’ll specify. This team has been a consistent 68-72 game winner for quite a few seasons. Predicting a 25-35 win improvement is a bit over optimistic IMHO. I guess it entertaining to speculate, however it’s not based on any hint of recent success. And please don’t come back with another Houston Astros analogy. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 23, 2020 17:40:15 GMT -8
Then you probably shouldn't quote batting averages without context. I’ll specify. This team has been a consistent 68-72 game winner for quite a few seasons. Predicting a 25-35 win improvement is a bit over optimistic IMHO. I guess it entertaining to speculate, however it’s not based on any hint of recent success. And please don’t come back with another Houston Astros analogy. They were easily a .500 team last year if their best player didn't miss half the season and their best pitcher wasn't handled extremely carefully. Time will tell. But your original post had nothing to do with this concept, it was about Machado's batting average at home. |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 23, 2020 17:58:12 GMT -8
Then you probably shouldn't quote batting averages without context. I’ll specify. This team has been a consistent 68-72 game winner for quite a few seasons. Predicting a 25-35 win improvement is a bit over optimistic IMHO. I guess it entertaining to speculate, however it’s not based on any hint of recent success. And please don’t come back with another Houston Astros analogy. Who has predicted a 25-35 win improvement? The biggest one I've seen is 17 (the one aztecryan posted from Fangraphs), and the lowest one I have seen is 9. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 23, 2020 18:35:38 GMT -8
I’ll specify. This team has been a consistent 68-72 game winner for quite a few seasons. Predicting a 25-35 win improvement is a bit over optimistic IMHO. I guess it entertaining to speculate, however it’s not based on any hint of recent success. And please don’t come back with another Houston Astros analogy. Who has predicted a 25-35 win improvement? The biggest one I've seen is 17 (the one aztecryan posted from Fangraphs), and the lowest one I have seen is 9. Nobody is projecting that much of an improvement, there was some mild exaggeration in his post. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Feb 23, 2020 20:19:05 GMT -8
Who has predicted a 25-35 win improvement? The biggest one I've seen is 17 (the one aztecryan posted from Fangraphs), and the lowest one I have seen is 9. Nobody is projecting that much of an improvement, there was some mild exaggeration in his post. I didn’t quote or attribute that figure to anyone. Just an opinion, however it will probably take a 25-35 win improvement to challenge the Dodgers this year. |
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Post by aardvark on Feb 23, 2020 22:51:21 GMT -8
Who has predicted a 25-35 win improvement? The biggest one I've seen is 17 (the one aztecryan posted from Fangraphs), and the lowest one I have seen is 9. Nobody is projecting that much of an improvement, there was some mild exaggeration in his post. Exactly. No one has predicted that much of an improvement, but I am wondering where you came up with those figures. I barely have them seeing .500 this season. I don't think Aztecryan was predicting anything--but he was mentioning a higher prediction. |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 24, 2020 7:54:25 GMT -8
Nobody is projecting that much of an improvement, there was some mild exaggeration in his post. Exactly. No one has predicted that much of an improvement, but I am wondering where you came up with those figures. I barely have them seeing .500 this season. I don't think Aztecryan was predicting anything--but he was mentioning a higher prediction. I predicted 86-76 in mid-January, before the Margot deal. |
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Post by aztecmusician on Feb 29, 2020 2:15:24 GMT -8
Just a post to keep this board from complete inactivity.🌃
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Post by Deleted on Feb 29, 2020 12:36:02 GMT -8
Exactly. No one has predicted that much of an improvement, but I am wondering where you came up with those figures. I barely have them seeing .500 this season. I don't think Aztecryan was predicting anything--but he was mentioning a higher prediction. I predicted 86-76 in mid-January, before the Margot deal. This prediction reminds me of the guess your age game at a county or state fair. Not that hard to be wrong. So your saying the Padres are going to be pretty good or they're gonna suck. 🤔 |
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Post by aztecryan on Feb 29, 2020 19:53:25 GMT -8
I predicted 86-76 in mid-January, before the Margot deal. This prediction reminds me of the guess your age game at a county or state fair. Not that hard to be wrong. So your saying the Padres are going to be pretty good or they're gonna suck. 🤔 How do you possibly get that from what I posted? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2020 7:25:54 GMT -8
This prediction reminds me of the guess your age game at a county or state fair. Not that hard to be wrong. So your saying the Padres are going to be pretty good or they're gonna suck. 🤔 How do you possibly get that from what I posted? Sleep deprivation or somebody slipped me a mickey. 😬 |
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Post by aztecryan on Mar 1, 2020 8:34:39 GMT -8
To be extra clear, I think the Margot deal improved the team. I'm sticking with 86 wins because it's what I've been on record with, but I think this is a legitimate playoff team if things break well on the injury front. Starting pitching depth, a couple left side superstars and I love what I've seen from Trent Grisham.
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Post by aardvark on Jul 13, 2020 16:42:25 GMT -8
Padres (according to Vegas oddsmakers) are 30/1 to win the World Series. 6 teams in the NL have better odds, and the Padres are lumped in with 2 other teams at 30/1 (Reds and Cubs).
Padres over/under is 30.5 wins.
For informational purposes only.
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