|
Post by sdcoug on Feb 17, 2020 15:07:02 GMT -8
www.bracketmatrix.com/The tide is slowly starting to change in our favor. Number one seed on all but six brackets. The Aztecs have, on averages, inched above the Zags on 78 brackets as of this post. I believe if we win out, we get the west. Btw, according to the consensus above, it looks like Utah St. has an at-large bid within reach. USU will be playing for their lives in the MWC tournament, but the Aztecs will be playing for history...and I like our chances. I think USU is a shoe in if they make it to the MWCT final, even if they lose. Maybe even if they lose in the semi's. They should have a NET in the 30s, and there will be a lot of carnage above them over the next 2-3 weeks.
|
|
|
Post by DeeMoney on Feb 17, 2020 15:27:35 GMT -8
And I think you can greatly discount any which are RPI-based, since those are majorly flawed. Agreed. We’re a five seed on one of those polls. Crazy! Ive said it before, that site really needs to trim the fat of some their contributors. I get the premise that the average of a bunch of experts is the most accurate predictor. Problem is, many of those who contribute have not evolved with the times- and should no longer be called experts
|
|
|
Post by AztecPhil on Feb 18, 2020 6:53:46 GMT -8
CBS Sports compiled this spreadsheet: CBS Sports: NCAA Bracket Projections (scroll to middle of the page) Unfortunately, the NCAA has a built in argument to screw both SDSU and Gonzaga if they use the RPI. Just play to win, each game, one game at a time.
|
|
|
Post by soccer94 on Feb 18, 2020 11:38:54 GMT -8
Updated .Net Rankings for relevant teams related to Gonzaga and SDSU best wins:
Creighton and Iowa both moved up 2 spots, Oregon moved up 1, Arizona stays the same. Is it enough yet for San Diego State to surpass Gonzaga with Gonzaga's loss to Michigan? Michigan also moved up 5 spots.
02/18/2020
8 - Arizona (Gonzaga Road Win) +-0 12 - Creighton (San Diego State Neutral Win) +2 22 - Oregon (Gonzaga Neutral Win) +1 23 - BYU (Gonzaga Home Win, San Diego State Road Win) -1 26 - Michigan (Gonzaga Loss) +5 28 - Iowa (San Diego State Neutral Win) +2 34 - St. Mary's (Gonzaga Road Win) +-0 41 - Utah State (San Diego State Home and Road Win) +1 89 - Nevada (San Diego State Home Win) +-0 96 - Boise State (San Diego State Home and Road Win) -5 97 - Colorado State (San Diego State Road Win) +-0 98 - San Francisco (Gonzaga Road Win) +3 115 - Pacific (Gonzaga Home Win) -1
Previous Post
8 - Arizona (Gonzaga Road Win) 14 - Creighton (San Diego State Neutral Win) 22 - BYU (Gonzaga Home Win, San Diego State Road Win) 23 - Oregon (Gonzaga Neutral Win) 30 - Iowa (San Diego State Neutral Win) 31 - Michigan (Gonzaga Loss) 34 - St. Mary's (Gonzaga Road Win) 42 - Utah State (San Diego State Home and Road Win) 89 - Nevada (San Diego State Home Win) 91 - Boise State (San Diego State Home and Road Win) 97 - Colorado State (San Diego State Road Win) 101 - San Francisco (Gonzaga Road Win) 114 - Pacific (Gonzaga Home Win)
|
|
|
Post by aztecryan on Feb 18, 2020 12:44:38 GMT -8
Gonzaga's OOC SOS : 245.
|
|
|
Post by soccer94 on Feb 18, 2020 20:23:25 GMT -8
I would think the quality of wins would really come down to where Oregon and Arizona are in the bracket vs where Creighton and Iowa are. On the most recent brackets posted by Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi our wins appear to be at least even if not stronger with the exception of Gonzaga's Arizona win being a true road win.
Lunardi: Creighton - 4 Oregon - 5 Arizona - 5 Iowa - 7
Palm: Creighton - 3 Oregon - 4 Arizona - 6 Iowa - 6
Creighton had a big road win at ranked Marquette tonight, so that should move them up even more. Iowa is still sitting at third in the Big Ten with a decent chance to finish 2nd.
Others BYU - 6 Lunardi, 8 Palm St. Mary's - 9 Lunardi, 9 Palm Utah State - 12 Lunardi, 11 Palm
For what it is worth, Michigan, Gonzaga's loss is a 6 in Palm's bracket and a 7 in Lunardi's at the moment.
|
|
|
Post by FinalFourJoe on Feb 18, 2020 20:28:27 GMT -8
Don't be afraid of MSG. In fact, I think I may prefer, this team loves the road. Remember both times SDSU has been to the S16 they lost at the Honda in Anaheim. Just playing on the west coast doesn't guarantee a win. Think of the number of eyeballs watching SDSU v. Duke at MSG. Come on now!!
|
|
|
Post by Boise Aztec on Feb 18, 2020 21:11:08 GMT -8
After USU wins tomorrow they will qualify as at Top Tier Q1 victory which will give both Gonzaga and SDSU three Q1TT wins, it would also mean that our victory against Iowa would be equal to the Zags victory against BYU.
That would leave Gonzaga’s Q1 win against Washington offset by their loss to Michigan.
You could call it a draw, although I would say all that gives SDSU a slight edge...
But the Q2 wins are going to be very much in favor of SDSU by Thursday morning... SDSU will be at 5-0 for sure... Gonzaga will likely be down to 1-0 as both Texas A&M at Alabama and Santa Clara at BYU are likely to lose...
There is definitely a path to SDSU getting the #1 in the West
|
|
|
Post by Gundo on Feb 18, 2020 23:49:53 GMT -8
Kenpom 2.18.20 kenpom.com/Aztecs Top 5 Wins #14 Creighton 21-6 #19 BYU 21-7 #22 Iowa 18-8 #40 Utah Stat3 21-7 (2x)
|
|
|
Post by omnipotentaztec on Feb 19, 2020 0:20:17 GMT -8
Don't be afraid of MSG. In fact, I think I may prefer, this team loves the road. Remember both times SDSU has been to the S16 they lost at the Honda in Anaheim. Just playing on the west coast doesn't guarantee a win. Think of the number of eyeballs watching SDSU v. Duke at MSG. Come on now!! uh. George Washington Univ.
|
|
|
Post by azson on Feb 19, 2020 9:51:21 GMT -8
Don't be afraid of MSG. In fact, I think I may prefer, this team loves the road. Remember both times SDSU has been to the S16 they lost at the Honda in Anaheim. Just playing on the west coast doesn't guarantee a win. Think of the number of eyeballs watching SDSU v. Duke at MSG. Come on now!! An extra +1 for your handle
|
|
|
Post by tonatiuh on Feb 19, 2020 12:38:01 GMT -8
Maybe, one thing we are all forgetting, and that is Gonzaga has been one of the better BB programs in the country for much longer than we have. Plus. they did make it to the Final Four & Championship game just a couple of years ago. So, if you have done it once they tend to believe you may just do it again. We have yet to make it that far. We may, but since they have already done so they get more consideration from the so-called experts.
|
|
|
Post by Aztec Empire on Feb 19, 2020 13:36:08 GMT -8
Don't be afraid of MSG. In fact, I think I may prefer, this team loves the road. Remember both times SDSU has been to the S16 they lost at the Honda in Anaheim. Just playing on the west coast doesn't guarantee a win. Think of the number of eyeballs watching SDSU v. Duke at MSG. Come on now!! We played Duke in the round of 32 not too long ago... where are our 4 star recruits from that blowout loss?
|
|
|
Post by waxxon on Feb 19, 2020 13:44:47 GMT -8
Let's cut the crap. I only got one thing to say... 38-0
|
|
|
Post by Lloyd on Feb 19, 2020 13:52:03 GMT -8
The #1 seed in the West could come down to how Gonzaga does at BYU on Saturday. (They may meet again on a neutral floor in the WCC tournament).
We won by 5 at BYU. If Gonzaga should win by 20 points, that will really help their case. If they lose at BYU, we should move to the projected #1 seed in the West.
|
|
|
Post by Al-O-Meter on Feb 19, 2020 14:12:04 GMT -8
The #1 seed in the West could come down to how Gonzaga does at BYU on Saturday. (They may meet again on a neutral floor in the WCC tournament). We won by 5 at BYU. If Gonzaga should win by 20 points, that will really help their case. If they lose at BYU, we should move to the projected #1 seed in the West. At this point I'm thinking the only way the Aztecs get the #1 seed in the West is for Gonzaga to lose to BYU this Saturday and for Creighton to win out. Creighton is only down 3 places to Arizona. If Creighton can catch or top Arizona then our statement win catches or tops Gonzaga's statement win. SDSU's victory margin was better but Gonzaga's was on Arizona's floor and Arizona has a higher ranking. Current advantage Gonzaga. With BYU, we'd both have wins but the Aztec's win was on BYU's floor while Gonzaga was at home. Advantage Aztecs only if Gonzaga loses at BYU otherwise advantage Gonzaga. Finally we've got Creighton's Oregon win versus SDSU's Iowa win. It doesn't matter what Iowa does they aren't catching Oregon. Advantage Gonzaga.
|
|
|
Post by jeffreylw on Feb 19, 2020 14:51:51 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by couldashoulda on Feb 19, 2020 15:18:30 GMT -8
Andy could have condensed his assessment down to about 2 minutes. He said the same things multiple times, but that's okay, because it was all good!
|
|
|
Post by rebar619 on Feb 19, 2020 16:43:55 GMT -8
The #1 seed in the West could come down to how Gonzaga does at BYU on Saturday. (They may meet again on a neutral floor in the WCC tournament). We won by 5 at BYU. If Gonzaga should win by 20 points, that will really help their case. If they lose at BYU, we should move to the projected #1 seed in the West. At this point I'm thinking the only way the Aztecs get the #1 seed in the West is for Gonzaga to lose to BYU this Saturday and for Creighton to win out. Creighton is only down 3 places to Arizona. If Creighton can catch or top Arizona then our statement win catches or tops Gonzaga's statement win. SDSU's victory margin was better but Gonzaga's was on Arizona's floor and Arizona has a higher ranking. Current advantage Gonzaga. With BYU, we'd both have wins but the Aztec's win was on BYU's floor while Gonzaga was at home. Advantage Aztecs only if Gonzaga loses at BYU otherwise advantage Gonzaga. Finally we've got Creighton's Oregon win versus SDSU's Iowa win. It doesn't matter what Iowa does they aren't catching Oregon. Advantage Gonzaga. Keep in mind that if Creighton wins out that they will win the Big East. Blowing out the winner of a conference by 31 will carry some weight.
|
|
|
Post by fisherville on Feb 19, 2020 16:48:40 GMT -8
I don’t think our opponents will have much of a factor. Gonzaga has been super impressive of late and in my opinion it only matters what they do for us to get a 1 seed. They need to lose again and us win out
|
|