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Post by aztecryan on Jul 9, 2019 17:59:51 GMT -8
Don't use K/9, use K%. This avoids pitch limits and avoids skewing the data. Paddack was at 40.9%, Gore is at 38.2%. Paddack was actually better in FIP by a considerable margin, but you have to factor in their ages, plus Gore is working with an INCREDIBLY young defense behind him. Center fielder is 19. Right fielder is 19. Shortstop is 19. Second baseman is 20. Catcher is 20. Gore has an incredibly high LOB% (not sustainable) and has gotten some good BABIP luck this year, but you can look at his LD% to deduce that it is mostly a lot of weak contact. The FIP difference is based upon the BABIP difference, so you are repeating yourself. At this level I think Gore's very low BABIP could be a result of very weak swings against him. How does pitch limits effect K/9 v K%? The big difference between the two is accounted for via WHIP. You can strikeout the side for 27ks/9 but if you give up a hit and a walk the K% is only 60% not 100%. That is why their K% is much closer. Gore's WHIP being lower closes that K/9 gap when expressed as K%. I should have gone deeper here, but K% removed batted ball dependency. K% is just strikeouts versus total batters faced. community.fangraphs.com/battle-of-the-ks-k9-kbb-and-k/ |
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 9, 2019 19:40:25 GMT -8
The FIP difference is based upon the BABIP difference, so you are repeating yourself. At this level I think Gore's very low BABIP could be a result of very weak swings against him. How does pitch limits effect K/9 v K%? The big difference between the two is accounted for via WHIP. You can strikeout the side for 27ks/9 but if you give up a hit and a walk the K% is only 60% not 100%. That is why their K% is much closer. Gore's WHIP being lower closes that K/9 gap when expressed as K%. I should have gone deeper here, but K% removed batted ball dependency. K% is just strikeouts versus total batters faced. community.fangraphs.com/battle-of-the-ks-k9-kbb-and-k/Yes. That is why WHIP accounts for any ranking differences between k/9 and k%. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 10, 2019 7:39:47 GMT -8
Yes. That is why WHIP accounts for any ranking differences between k/9 and k%. Every evaluator I talked to embraced K% just to simplify and get a higher conversion rate than K/9. I found it much easier to project going forward, too. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 10, 2019 8:55:31 GMT -8
Gore's AA debut is scheduled for Friday.
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 10, 2019 11:09:05 GMT -8
Yes. That is why WHIP accounts for any ranking differences between k/9 and k%. Every evaluator I talked to embraced K% just to simplify and get a higher conversion rate than K/9. I found it much easier to project going forward, too. That's fine. It is interesting to know that WHIP is folded into K% since at the same k/9 the better WHIP pitcher has the better K%. I like knowing WHIP and k/9 to get a better picture like knowing SLG and OBP instead of only OPS. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 11, 2019 9:12:58 GMT -8
Gore's AA debut is scheduled for Friday. Make that Saturday. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 11, 2019 9:14:51 GMT -8
Every evaluator I talked to embraced K% just to simplify and get a higher conversion rate than K/9. I found it much easier to project going forward, too. That's fine. It is interesting to know that WHIP is folded into K% since at the same k/9 the better WHIP pitcher has the better K%. I like knowing WHIP and k/9 to get a better picture like knowing SLG and OBP instead of only OPS. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2019 9:53:13 GMT -8
Bill, you make me laugh with that bull$#!+ you constantly post.
"Wolf, wolf, wolf!"......but nobody came.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 11, 2019 10:08:49 GMT -8
Bill, you make me laugh with that bull$#!+ you constantly post. "Wolf, wolf, wolf!"......but nobody came. I mean, metrics are what they are, but for example, WHIP equates all hits equally. A home run is obviously more damaging than a single. I lean very heavily towards FIP, xFIP and K%. FIP eliminates the ERA bias of defense, official scoring and random bad luck. It gives you an actual indication of how well a pitcher is throwing. Noah Syndergaard is a really good example of that. He has one of the largest ERA-FIP gaps, 8th or 9th highest I believe. MacKenzie Gore's ERA is ridiculous, but FIP shows him around 2.3, which is still insanely good. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 11, 2019 10:28:02 GMT -8
Bill, you make me laugh with that bull$#!+ you constantly post. "Wolf, wolf, wolf!"......but nobody came. I mean, metrics are what they are, but for example, WHIP equates all hits equally. A home run is obviously more damaging than a single. I lean very heavily towards FIP, xFIP and K%. FIP eliminates the ERA bias of defense, official scoring and random bad luck. It gives you an actual indication of how well a pitcher is throwing. Noah Syndergaard is a really good example of that. He has one of the largest ERA-FIP gaps, 8th or 9th highest I believe. MacKenzie Gore's ERA is ridiculous, but FIP shows him around 2.3, which is still insanely good. K/9 Is Ks per (3) out. K% is Ks per out plus hits and walks. Or Ks per out plus WHIP. That is why I say WHIP is folded into that stat. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2019 10:38:34 GMT -8
JK buddy! Do you remember that from Aztec Joe? Years ago.... lol
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Post by aardvark on Jul 11, 2019 10:49:04 GMT -8
That Gore guy is pretty good, but it's a big step to AA, and I look forward to see just how he does at Amarillo.
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 11, 2019 11:24:39 GMT -8
JK buddy! Do you remember that from Aztec Joe? Years ago.... lol He was a funny guy. |
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 11, 2019 11:25:40 GMT -8
I'm looking forward to Friday to see how he does.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 13, 2019 11:54:23 GMT -8
Just a bump - If you have MILB TV, Gore's start will have video coverage in Frisco.
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Post by AztecBill on Jul 13, 2019 18:15:52 GMT -8
5.1
2 hits
1 walk
4 Ks
0 runs
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Post by aardvark on Jul 13, 2019 19:23:45 GMT -8
5.1 2 hits 1 walk 4 Ks 0 runs Also had nice run support to pick up the W. |
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 14, 2019 9:15:58 GMT -8
Didn't have great stuff overall, lacked feel for the slider in particular. Snapped off a wicked curve in the first to make Hunter Pence look silly. Got ahead with 2 strikes, but Frisco did a good job of putting balls in play. Gore called it his "C stuff."
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Post by aardvark on Jul 20, 2019 8:10:06 GMT -8
Last night, Gore got lit up. 4 IP, 7 H, 7 R (all earned), 1 BB, 4 K's, 3 HR's allowed. That proves one thing. Gore is human.
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Post by aztecryan on Jul 21, 2019 21:29:46 GMT -8
I don't even really want to talk about it, but fastball command was spotty. Amarillo is a really brutal park. One of the home runs was a foul ball. But, it was his worst start as a pro. Moving on.
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