|
Post by AztecBill on Oct 22, 2018 19:27:55 GMT -8
Monday Night Football: New York Giants score a touchdown late after being down 14 points and go for a two-point conversion. The announcers go on and on about what a terrible decision it is. It was absolutely the right decision. Announcers are stupid.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Oct 23, 2018 12:39:07 GMT -8
Monday Night Football: New York Giants score a touchdown late after being down 14 points and go for a two-point conversion. The announcers go on and on about what a terrible decision it is. It was absolutely the right decision. Announcers are stupid. In that situation, why was going for 2 so important?
|
|
|
Post by AztecBill on Oct 23, 2018 15:34:32 GMT -8
Monday Night Football: New York Giants score a touchdown late after being down 14 points and go for a two-point conversion. The announcers go on and on about what a terrible decision it is. It was absolutely the right decision. Announcers are stupid. In that situation, why was going for 2 so important? Basic percentages. Even if you only made two-point conversion 40% it makes more sense to go for two. You will have to score another touchdown anyway to make it a game. If your two-point conversion is successful then a one point it will win the game. If your two-point conversions unsuccessful you get a second bite at the Apple by attempting another two-point conversion - if successful the game is tied the same results that you would have. 1st 40% success = win. 2nd 60% fail 60% fail = 36% lose 24% success = tie. So you have a better chance of winning then losing even at a 40% success rate. In addition 8% of the time one of the two one point conversions would be unsuccessful since 1 Point conversions are being converted at 95.7% this season. In addition if the second one pointer was unsuccessful you'd still have a tie if you went for two after the first touchdown and we're successful. Two-point conversions are successful greater than 40% of the time, in the NFL, this season.
|
|
|
Post by aardvark on Oct 23, 2018 15:51:03 GMT -8
In that situation, why was going for 2 so important? Basic percentages. Even if you only made two-point conversion 40% it makes more sense to go for two. You will have to score another touchdown anyway to make it a game. If your two-point conversion is successful then a one point it will win the game. If your two-point conversions unsuccessful you get a second bite at the Apple by attempting another two-point conversion - if successful the game is tied the same results that you would have. 1st 40% success = win. 2nd 60% fail 60% fail = 36% lose 24% success = tie. So you have a better chance of winning then losing even at a 40% success rate. In addition 8% of the time one of the two one point conversions would be unsuccessful since 1 Point conversions are being converted at 95.7% this season. In addition if the second one pointer was unsuccessful you'd still have a tie if you went for two after the first touchdown and we're successful. Two-point conversions are successful greater than 40% of the time, in the NFL, this season. What would have done when the Giants went for it on 4th and goal? As they ended up not getting the TD, they left what was probably a sure FG off the board, and they lost by 3.
|
|
|
Post by AztecBill on Oct 23, 2018 15:56:18 GMT -8
Basic percentages. Even if you only made two-point conversion 40% it makes more sense to go for two. You will have to score another touchdown anyway to make it a game. If your two-point conversion is successful then a one point it will win the game. If your two-point conversions unsuccessful you get a second bite at the Apple by attempting another two-point conversion - if successful the game is tied the same results that you would have. 1st 40% success = win. 2nd 60% fail 60% fail = 36% lose 24% success = tie. So you have a better chance of winning then losing even at a 40% success rate. In addition 8% of the time one of the two one point conversions would be unsuccessful since 1 Point conversions are being converted at 95.7% this season. In addition if the second one pointer was unsuccessful you'd still have a tie if you went for two after the first touchdown and we're successful. Two-point conversions are successful greater than 40% of the time, in the NFL, this season. What would have done when the Giants went for it on 4th and goal? As they ended up not getting the TD, they left what was probably a sure FG off the board, and they lost by 3. Getting 3 would have changed many things the rest of the game so we don't know. I'm a big fan for going for at 4th and short in most any situation.
|
|