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Post by azteclou on Jan 10, 2018 7:41:56 GMT -8
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Post by longtimebooster on Jan 10, 2018 7:56:14 GMT -8
Interesting summary. We've clearly got a big mountain to climb. Here are Bilas's takes on teams relevant to SDSU:
66. San Diego State Aztecs
The coach has changed, but the overall makeup of the program has not. The Aztecs guard the ball well, rotate to the ball and rebound well, but they cannot shoot straight. The Aztecs lead the Mountain West in opponent FG percent at 39.8 percent. San Diego State is 220th in the country in effective field goal percentage and 248th in 3-point field goal percentage at 33 percent.
41. Georgia Bulldogs
After a tough loss at Kentucky -- which was a rock fight -- and a win over Ole Miss, Georgia played its best game of the season against Alabama. Yante Maten had 26 points and 11 rebounds as the Georgia big men dominated the contest. Turnovers and suspect perimeter shooting have made things difficult on Maten, who is the primary target of opposing defenses.
34. Boise State Broncos
The Bilas Index is very bullish on the Broncos. While Nevada has terrific personnel, especially at the top of the roster, Boise State has more balance and is the better rebounding and defensive team. Chandler Hutchison, the Broncos' best player, is among the Mountain West leaders in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. He will be known by all before the NCAA tournament is over. Hutchison is a gamer who just glides out there. The Bilastrator saw Hutchison play several times early in his career and didn't see greatness in him. However, this kid is a great player. He has clearly retooled his shot, his feet are terrific and he is incredibly confident. Watch this kid. He is an NBA player.
30. Nevada Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack are really good, due to terrific personnel. Nevada can score with anyone, but the ultimate level of this team will be determined by defense and rebounding. Can Nevada defend and rebound at a higher level? Jordan Caroline certainly can. Caroline averages 17 points and 9.4 rebounds, but he is not alone in his ability level. Caleb Martin leads Nevada in scoring at 19 points per game and is second in the Mountain West only to UNLV freshman Brandon McCoy. Caleb's twin brother, Cody, is averaging almost 14 points per game and is among the league's rebounding leaders. If Nevada defends and rebounds, this is an NCAA tournament team that can win when it gets there.
20. Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Zags are torturing the West Coast Conference -- again. While not as big or as gifted up front, Gonzaga has really good guards and a very balanced offensive attack. Six players are averaging 9.7 points or better, with Jonathan Williams leading the team with 14.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Rui Hachimura is figuring it out. Watch out for Corey Kispert. That kid is going to be really good in Spokane.
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Post by mactec on Jan 10, 2018 8:50:42 GMT -8
Really weird the huge disparity between us and Boise. Especially since we only have 1 more loss with a SoS that is more than 100 places better.
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Post by longtimebooster on Jan 10, 2018 8:58:17 GMT -8
Really weird the huge disparity between us and Boise. Especially since we only have 1 more loss with a SoS that is more than 100 places better. True. But we'll have a chance to change all that this weekend. Hope the team shows up. |
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Post by Fishn'Aztec on Jan 10, 2018 9:58:58 GMT -8
Saturday is The AZTECS opportunity to beat B.S.U and leapfrog them into 2nd place. No more woulda, coulda, shoulda, show up play great on the road and take care of business!
GO AZTECS!!
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Post by Frantic on Jan 10, 2018 10:01:48 GMT -8
Really weird the huge disparity between us and Boise. Especially since we only have 1 more loss with a SoS that is more than 100 places better. I don't understand it either. Kenpom currently has SDSU at 51 and Boise at 53. |
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Post by aztecnails on Jan 10, 2018 10:55:17 GMT -8
Usa today sagarin ratings has SDSU at 51 and boise state at 54. I expect a close game Saturday.
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Post by sdcoug on Jan 10, 2018 11:28:28 GMT -8
Really weird the huge disparity between us and Boise. Especially since we only have 1 more loss with a SoS that is more than 100 places better. ESPN has our SOS at 215 & BSU's at 161, which I'm sure plays into it. Haven't dug into why they have ours so low? They show BSU's & SDSU's BPI's at 47 & 51, and RPI's at 47 & 55, so relatively close. It's just the SOS, and then Strength of Record (35 vs. 80) which have a huge disparity. As noted, the computer rankings are very close, predicting a 2-3 point game. My primary takeaways from the article are a) it's always good to be on any top 68 radar & be mentioned on ESPN; b) he sees the MWC as a 2-bid conference; and c) he ranks the 2 key teams we've beat very high. |
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Post by mactec on Jan 10, 2018 11:37:28 GMT -8
Really weird the huge disparity between us and Boise. Especially since we only have 1 more loss with a SoS that is more than 100 places better. ESPN has our SOS at 215 & BSU's at 161, which I'm sure plays into it. Haven't dug into why they have ours so low? They show BSU's & SDSU's BPI's at 47 & 51, and RPI's at 47 & 55, so relatively close. It's just the SOS, and then Strength of Record (35 vs. 80) which have a huge disparity. As noted, the computer rankings are very close, predicting a 2-3 point game. My primary takeaways from the article are a) it's always good to be on any top 68 radar & be mentioned on ESPN; b) he sees the MWC as a 2-bid conference; and c) he ranks the 2 key teams we've beat very high. Interesting on the SOS... KenPom (what I referenced in my post): SDSU #125, Boise #255 Sagarin: SDSU #149, Boise #143 BPI: SDSU #215, Boise #161 It's interesting how differently the three big metrics rank our SOS as all try to do the same thing. You'd obviously expect some variance, but you'd at least expect the different sources to paint a similar picture. |
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Post by sdcoug on Jan 10, 2018 11:58:43 GMT -8
ESPN has our SOS at 215 & BSU's at 161, which I'm sure plays into it. Haven't dug into why they have ours so low? They show BSU's & SDSU's BPI's at 47 & 51, and RPI's at 47 & 55, so relatively close. It's just the SOS, and then Strength of Record (35 vs. 80) which have a huge disparity. As noted, the computer rankings are very close, predicting a 2-3 point game. My primary takeaways from the article are a) it's always good to be on any top 68 radar & be mentioned on ESPN; b) he sees the MWC as a 2-bid conference; and c) he ranks the 2 key teams we've beat very high. Interesting on the SOS... KenPom (what I referenced in my post): SDSU #125, Boise #255 Sagarin: SDSU #149, Boise #143 BPI: SDSU #215, Boise #161 It's interesting how differently the three big metrics rank our SOS as all try to do the same thing. You'd obviously expect some variance, but you'd at least expect the different sources to paint a similar picture. Kenpom excludes D2 - the SDC's of the world; I'm assuming Sagarin probably does as well. Maybe ESPN/BPI includes them? Seems pretty punishing though, if that's the reason? Again, just guessing. Realtimerpi has our SOS at #97 & BSU's at #115, so not coming from a RPI perspective. |
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Post by DeeMoney on Jan 10, 2018 13:02:47 GMT -8
If the committee has us the 66th best team in the nation then that would not be good. Its usually the best 50 teams that make it (via winning their conference or at large) the rest go to autobid teams that are outside of the top 80. Not that I am complaining, that is the right thing to do, just noting that if we are hoping for an at large we need to be better.
But as has been noted, we got some big games ahead to change this.
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Post by zurac315 on Jan 10, 2018 14:19:30 GMT -8
Why can't we shoot?
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Post by northcountymike on Jan 10, 2018 14:49:40 GMT -8
Shooting isn't important. |
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Post by brokencurse on Jan 10, 2018 17:59:41 GMT -8
Shooting isn't important. Neither are quality psots, apparently. |
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Post by northcountymike on Jan 10, 2018 21:20:44 GMT -8
Shooting isn't important. Neither are quality psots, apparently. *rimshot*. You've got jokes. Let's hope our team has scorers. |
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Post by mojo56 on Jan 11, 2018 9:32:18 GMT -8
[/quote]Interesting on the SOS...
KenPom (what I referenced in my post): SDSU #125, Boise #255
Sagarin: SDSU #149, Boise #143
BPI: SDSU #215, Boise #161
It's interesting how differently the three big metrics rank our SOS as all try to do the same thing. You'd obviously expect some variance, but you'd at least expect the different sources to paint a similar picture.
[/quote]
I'm not seeing that. Overall adj SOS on KenPom is SDSU: 161, BSU: 173. Non-conf SOS is SDSU: 129, BSU: 258. Maybe you were looking at non-conf SOS and the ratings changed since your post?
Bottom line for me is the 2 teams appear equal on paper. Bilas is obviously using the eye test. Can't wait for Saturday night to settle it on the court. ESPN 2 @ 7 PM. Bring it.
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Post by aztecking on Jan 11, 2018 10:27:30 GMT -8
Aside from Gonzaga, Bilas only has a cursory knowledge of teams outside of the the big 6 conferences.
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Post by mactec on Jan 11, 2018 12:46:46 GMT -8
Interesting on the SOS... KenPom (what I referenced in my post): SDSU #125, Boise #255 Sagarin: SDSU #149, Boise #143 BPI: SDSU #215, Boise #161 It's interesting how differently the three big metrics rank our SOS as all try to do the same thing. You'd obviously expect some variance, but you'd at least expect the different sources to paint a similar picture. Kenpom excludes D2 - the SDC's of the world; I'm assuming Sagarin probably does as well. Maybe ESPN/BPI includes them? Seems pretty punishing though, if that's the reason? Again, just guessing. Realtimerpi has our SOS at #97 & BSU's at #115, so not coming from a RPI perspective. I noticed that I mistakenly took the OOC SOS for KenPom. It looks a little closer when you use the total SOS. Whoops!  |
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Post by mactec on Jan 11, 2018 12:47:19 GMT -8
Interesting on the SOS... KenPom (what I referenced in my post): SDSU #125, Boise #255Sagarin: SDSU #149, Boise #143 BPI: SDSU #215, Boise #161 It's interesting how differently the three big metrics rank our SOS as all try to do the same thing. You'd obviously expect some variance, but you'd at least expect the different sources to paint a similar picture. [/quote] I'm not seeing that. Overall adj SOS on KenPom is SDSU: 161, BSU: 173. Non-conf SOS is SDSU: 129, BSU: 258. Maybe you were looking at non-conf SOS and the ratings changed since your post? Bottom line for me is the 2 teams appear equal on paper. Bilas is obviously using the eye test. Can't wait for Saturday night to settle it on the court. ESPN 2 @ 7 PM. Bring it.[/quote] Yep, I was looking at the Non-Con. My mistake there |
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