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Post by always4aztecs on Feb 7, 2016 10:08:06 GMT -8
20 wins in the last 22 overtimes. Didn't remember the probability part of my statistics class 40+ years ago. But I am able to use a coin flip calculator website.
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Post by sdmotohead on Feb 7, 2016 10:20:47 GMT -8
I appreciate your numbers, but winning in OT isn't luck and definitely not a coin toss.
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Post by always4aztecs on Feb 7, 2016 10:58:52 GMT -8
Duh....that was my point! I guess I should have spelled it out.
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Post by northcountymike on Feb 7, 2016 12:30:03 GMT -8
I appreciate your numbers, but winning in OT isn't luck and definitely not a coin toss. Disagree to an extent. Sometimes you got a blown call here and there *cough cough*, a ball bounces weird, etc. Yes, there's more coaching and execution involved, but what are we going to say when we finally lose one of these close, OT games? We'll probably say something like, "that ref screwed us on a call," or, "we're so lucky that ball bounced off the other player's foot," both of which are quite applicable just this week.... .
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Post by Boise Aztec on Feb 7, 2016 12:48:35 GMT -8
There are things in sports that are determined by skill amd others that are just luck.
For example when a hitter puts a ball in play (not HR, K, BB) he has little control over what happens etc and his average on those plays will vary greatly each year.
The point here is that SDSU has an ability to win in OT. Winning 20 out of 22 says that it is not luck but instead a skill.
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Post by fisherville on Feb 7, 2016 12:50:52 GMT -8
I appreciate your numbers, but winning in OT isn't luck and definitely not a coin toss. Luck definitely plays a part.
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Post by fisherville on Feb 7, 2016 12:51:36 GMT -8
There are things in sports that are determined by skill amd others that are just luck. For example when a hitter puts a ball in play (not HR, K, BB) he has little control over what happens etc and his average on those plays will vary greatly each year. The point here is that SDSU has an ability to win in OT. Winning 20 out of 22 says that it is not luck but instead a skill. No, winning 20 out of 22 luck does play a part. Also what you said about a hitter is not actually true, how hard you hit the ball greatly determines the chances of success.
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Post by fisherville on Feb 7, 2016 12:54:51 GMT -8
We didn't go into OT with 50/50 odds in probably any of these games, remember there is a better or worse team and home/road (a/e)ffects the outcome, we were most likely the better team in almost all these games, that being said we were not expected to win 20, skill definitely plays a part but so does luck and it doesn't take anything away from our success in OT.
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Post by Boise Aztec on Feb 7, 2016 13:01:22 GMT -8
There are things in sports that are determined by skill amd others that are just luck. For example when a hitter puts a ball in play (not HR, K, BB) he has little control over what happens etc and his average on those plays will vary greatly each year. The point here is that SDSU has an ability to win in OT. Winning 20 out of 22 says that it is not luck but instead a skill. No, winning 20 out of 22 luck does play a part. Also what you said about a hitter is not actually true, how hard you hit the ball greatly determines the chances of success. Don't talk about something you don't know about. There are a whole bunch of studies on the concept of balls in play batting average. It is conclusive, from one year to the next a hitters average on those balls will change dramatically and is not really controllable from year to year. Players who hit the ball harder or run faster will typically have a highers BBIP average, but they still have a wide variation based on luck. statliners.com/2014/09/27/babip-batting-average-balls-play/
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Post by Boise Aztec on Feb 7, 2016 13:06:11 GMT -8
We didn't go into OT with 50/50 odds in probably any of these games, remember there is a better or worse team and home/road (a/e)ffects the outcome, we were most likely the better team in almost all these games, that being said we were not expected to win 20, skill definitely plays a part but so does luck and it doesn't take anything away from our success in OT. Wrong again. If we are 4 points better over 40 minutes per KenPom or Sagarin then we are 1/8 that over an OT time period or half of one point. So a coin flip would be 11 out of 22 and with us being "better", as you point out, may be worth one more win or 12 for 22. Based on that, 20 out of 22 says there is a skill and SDSU has it, while teams like UNLV don't.
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Post by ourtime on Feb 7, 2016 13:22:40 GMT -8
No, winning 20 out of 22 luck does play a part. Also what you said about a hitter is not actually true, how hard you hit the ball greatly determines the chances of success. Don't talk about something you don't know about. There are a whole bunch of studies on the concept of balls in play batting average. It is conclusive, from one year to the next a hitters average on those balls will change dramatically and is not really controllable from year to year.Players who hit the ball harder or run faster will typically have a highers BBIP average, but they still have a wide variation based on luck. statliners.com/2014/09/27/babip-batting-average-balls-play/This is mostly true, but there is a league average, and career norms with outliers. Babip does fluctuate but career .300 hitters are .300 hitters for a reason. Wild fluctuations one year to the next would make for roller coaster careers.
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Post by fisherville on Feb 7, 2016 13:37:57 GMT -8
We didn't go into OT with 50/50 odds in probably any of these games, remember there is a better or worse team and home/road (a/e)ffects the outcome, we were most likely the better team in almost all these games, that being said we were not expected to win 20, skill definitely plays a part but so does luck and it doesn't take anything away from our success in OT. Wrong again. If we are 4 points better over 40 minutes per KenPom or Sagarin then we are 1/8 that over an OT time period or half of one point. So a coin flip would be 11 out of 22 and with us being "better", as you point out, may be worth one more win or 12 for 22. Based on that, 20 out of 22 says there is a skill and SDSU has it, while teams like UNLV don't. Nothing I said is wrong, our odds in none of those games are 50/50 going into OT. If we are expected to win 12 of 22 OT games than it is even more clear that luck HAS played a role, and it clearly has, you are delusional if you think it hasn't.
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Post by fisherville on Feb 7, 2016 13:40:07 GMT -8
No, winning 20 out of 22 luck does play a part. Also what you said about a hitter is not actually true, how hard you hit the ball greatly determines the chances of success. Don't talk about something you don't know about. There are a whole bunch of studies on the concept of balls in play batting average. It is conclusive, from one year to the next a hitters average on those balls will change dramatically and is not really controllable from year to year. Players who hit the ball harder or run faster will typically have a highers BBIP average, but they still have a wide variation based on luck. statliners.com/2014/09/27/babip-batting-average-balls-play/Please look up batting average on line drives, and based on batted ball velocities, then get back to me. Thanks.
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Post by sdmotohead on Feb 7, 2016 14:32:58 GMT -8
Equating us being successful in OT due to luck is a great way to marginalize the team's mental and physical resolve in an obviously tough game. Why bother trying at all if it's 50/50 one way or the other?
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 7, 2016 16:20:30 GMT -8
I would love to see a study looking at OT winners versus favored teams. I suspect it is pretty close to 50/50.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2016 18:02:49 GMT -8
I am not an expert on this at all but I am just finishing up a book called 'The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives' by Mlodinow. To me it was very interesting. In one of the chapters he basically talks about this very thing. Essentially, given enough given trials/events, like games played, balls hit, stock market predictions made, etc... there will be streaks within the trials/events where things appear to establish some sort of a trend yet the results are basically a display of randomness....
My guess is that given enough games, over time Fish's win rate for OT games would ultimately mirror his overall win rate for all games... better than 50/50 but certainly not 90.1%... like if you flipped a coin an unlimited amount of times if you looked at only one short segment of that coin flipping sequence you could easily fall on a segment which was overwhelmingly heads or tails.
Probably didn't explain that well enough...
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 7, 2016 19:27:31 GMT -8
I am not an expert on this at all but I am just finishing up a book called 'The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives' by Mlodinow. To me it was very interesting. In one of the chapters he basically talks about this very thing. Essentially, given enough given trials/events, like games played, balls hit, stock market predictions made, etc... there will be streaks within the trials/events where things appear to establish some sort of a trend yet the results are basically a display of randomness.... My guess is that given enough games, over time Fish's win rate for OT games would ultimately mirror his overall win rate for all games... better than 50/50 but certainly not 90.1%... like if you flipped a coin an unlimited amount of times if you looked at only one short segment of that coin flipping sequence you could easily fall on a segment which was overwhelmingly heads or tails. Probably didn't explain that well enough... OT record and 5 minute record makes it pretty clear the Aztecs are closers.
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Post by DeeMoney on Feb 7, 2016 22:07:50 GMT -8
I would think in depth and being a foul averse defense, while being an offense that draws a lot of fouls, lends itself to a higher rate of success in OT. There doesn't seem to be any other talent or skill that would sway OT events in any other way.
But to argue that we win OT games at a higher rate because we are clearly a better team than the opponents is odd (at least if there is a large enough sample size). If we are consistently a more talented team than these opponents who take us into OT, then why do we keep failing to outscore them in the first 40 minutes? Are we just waiting too long to show off our mental toughness?
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Post by azdick on Feb 8, 2016 8:51:23 GMT -8
Luck and good fortune play a part; good coaching plays a bigger part.
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Post by DeeMoney on Feb 8, 2016 9:57:36 GMT -8
Luck and good fortune play a part; good coaching plays a bigger part. But I think this is the essence of the discussion: if we are winning because of good coaching in OT then why didn't that good coaching get us the win in regulation? For all the people who are angry at the mention of "luck", please recognize that nobody is claiming that we win because of luck (obviously the sport is one of athleticism and skill). But in the case of 22 games the final score after 40 minutes of play was even; this would indicate that the two teams, at least in this contest were very even in regards to production, and on this day even in the factors that produce victories. So,we have produced an even result, a 50/50 result, or a "coin toss" result for the first 40 minutes (by coin toss I mean a result where both sides are equal; and if we are predicting strictly on what score had been produced in the game it would be a coin toss). Now if there were some skill set that made us better than the opposition (coaching, toughness, etc) why did it not lead us to victory during regulation? If our in game coaching was better than theirs then why are we tied? Did we wait to use our better coaching until OT? So I repeat, in general OT games are considered coin tosses because the first 40 minutes have measured the two opponents to be equal- or a coin toss. Now, are there specific skills that translate to specific success in OT? Above, I mentioned several factors that could have an increased value in a longer (overtime) game: depth (to which I add stamina), being a foul averse defense, and being an offense which draws a lot of fouls. Depth and endurance (or mental toughness if you chose to call it) could very well be a reason we are more successful in OT games. I wonder if we condition more/better than other teams due to the elevation of in conference opponent's home arenas? If so, then kudos to the staff. Additionally, I mentioned fouls; because increased fouling does alter your roster, and as players approach the 5 foul threshold this alters how they play. And since fouls are a counting stat, they become increasingly valuable as the game goes on. At least in regards to ejections.
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