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Post by AztecBill on Jan 26, 2015 9:14:05 GMT -8
There is a 69% correlation between our defensive turnover % and defensive efficiency. This number is very high, I don't have the backlog of numbers with me now; but somewhere I have the correlation stats for teams over the past few years and don't remember many teams being this high (VCU only went that high once in the past few years for example). This doesn't mean that we need to press, more of an indicator of what we do. 69% correlation is not "very high". Defensive efficiency factorsTurnovers Rebounding Low Opponent 2 point shooting percentage (Blocked shots) Low Opponent 3 point shooting percentage Few Opponent free throws All are important and all probably correlate positively to efficiency since they are the factors that determine it. I would suspect low opponent free throws correlates the best but have no numbers.
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 26, 2015 9:29:56 GMT -8
We need more turnovers than fast break baskets from the press to make those aspects, in isolation, equal to just using a half court defense. But there are other factors that must be considered.
1. The press reduces the time our opponent's offense has in the half court. 2. The press expends more opponent's energy.
The value of those two items are difficult to measure.
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Post by standiego on Jan 26, 2015 9:31:37 GMT -8
We are in conference play now , so every coach knows what you are going to do , So unless you have a new variation to your press it boils down to execution . CSU had 3 fifth year seniors and 2 juniors in there . So as suggested a small press by the guards to speed them up then put it on tight at half court , or you better guard them . Every time you press and they get an easy basket just really hurts. We may also need to foul earlier when it gets down to 2 minutes or less. We pick up way too many fouls that seem to have no value. on the perimeter . Do not reach in . Fisher was very upset about the defense inside when JJ played the 5 and Pope the 4 , Pope is not used to it and does not know when to double .
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Post by danloc09 on Jan 26, 2015 9:32:44 GMT -8
I feel like the full court press has been a lot more detrimental than beneficial lately for the team. Other teams are getting a lot of easy transition buckets, I remember seeing a few plays where colorado literally just quickly ran past press straight to the hoop to score unopposed or a step back 3. Yesterday, we would stop pressing when colorado started to get away, get close to them then start pressing, and they would get away again, rinse and repeat. If you have 2 of our guys trying to trap that leaves one of their guys open for an easy 3 or drive to the basket. I don't even remember us actually getting any turnovers off it, Colorado only had 5 turnovers total. If the other team has good ball handlers we should not be wasting energy constantly pressing. If they don't have good ball handlers like UNLV, we should press. Thoughts? CSU has a lot of upperclassmen. They don't get flustered by full court presses. We should have known that. New Mexico had a lot of upperclassmen last year. Press seemed to work okay on them
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Post by Xoxoctic Xonacah on Jan 26, 2015 9:34:38 GMT -8
The press can get us tired too. We asked a lot from JJ and Aqueel. I love both Aqueel and JJ, but they had played nearly the whole game. Given the tough schedule at high altitude, I expected JJ and Aqueel to be nearly out of gas at the end. I wonder how much fatigue effected these two great players' shooting at the end of game. Maybe it's hindsight, but I would have liked to have seen more Winston and perhaps Trey back in at the end of the ColoradoSt game. Both have shown they can be effective at crunch time, with great shots and do well under pressure from the line. Hard to take either JJ or Aqueel out at crunch time though...
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Post by standiego on Jan 26, 2015 10:17:23 GMT -8
What confused the Lobos last year was the 1-3-1 zone , mostly once they were in the front court ,something different last year . Coach put the ball in the hands of the fifth year seniors JJ and AQ for the last few shots and FT's . They did not come through . JJ had hit some of his twisters earlier but not in the last part of the game,or his shot or FT's . AQ was 3-12 for the game 0 for 6 on threes and only 1 assist - has not had good production is that department . Same thing on his threes either hot or very cold in every other game . PG ?
That is the problem every player is very inconsistent from game to game . As noted by Zeigler early on we do not have a true go to guy for the shot or pass . Add the missed Ft's and as Coach Fisher put it very poor inside D ,down low - he felt Pope did not know when to double .
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Post by aztech on Jan 26, 2015 12:11:36 GMT -8
CSU has a lot of upperclassmen. They don't get flustered by full court presses. We should have known that. New Mexico had a lot of upperclassmen last year. Press seemed to work okay on them Only because they had never seen the 1-3-1 defense for that one game.
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Post by standiego on Jan 26, 2015 12:26:39 GMT -8
The coaches all know the tendencies of each other coach and their strategies . So for the top 5 teams in the conference , who have experienced players , you are not going to beat them with a full court press . It boils down to what players execute better then the other team . Both on defense and offense . Game was 73-72 near the end and CSU was able to finish , and we did not . Need go to guys on both ends of the court . Our two fifth year seniors (AQ and JJ) who had the ball and shots could not pull it out . You need that in close games .
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Post by aztech on Jan 26, 2015 13:09:41 GMT -8
The coaches all know the tendencies of each other coach and their strategies . So for the top 5 teams in the conference , who have experienced players , you are not going to beat them with a full court press . It boils down to what players execute better then the other team . Both on defense and offense . Game was 73-72 near the end and CSU was able to finish , and we did not . Need go to guys on both ends of the court . Our two fifth year seniors (AQ and JJ) who had the ball and shots could not pull it out . You need that in close games . From here on out we'll be seeing more close games than not. We have to find a solution to finish out games. I don't like the 50% chance of hitting perimeter shots by the wrong shooters. They've got to play smarter because we don't have a go to guy.
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Post by standiego on Jan 26, 2015 13:34:15 GMT -8
Now is the time for the coaches to really try to get the most out of each guy , what guys can Execute in crunch time . on both ends of the court . We have 11 guys that can play , time to use the bench and athleticism to our advantage . Not too many teams can do that . Run and let the guys go . Time to see what guys can be consistent or if it means going with hot hand . Execution is key . Share the ball , fast quick passing to hit the open guy .
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Post by sdcoug on Jan 26, 2015 13:35:38 GMT -8
I'm not saying we shouldn't press anymore, but it seems like our press is not leading to turnovers, and as a result easy baskets/offense.
I'd like to see variations of the press, at times with more aggression. If you watched how Cincinnati pressed us, or how VCU or Louisvilke press, it's more aggressive- they front guys on the inbound pass - we usually don't. They rotate guys up and around so if the initial ball handler passes out of that double team, the next guy is over playing that, which leads to steals, then the same for the next guy. It's a little higher risk, but at times worth it. We fell apart when the Bearcats hit with that super aggressive press, and that was, IMO, what cost us the game. I'd also love to see us press more softly than we do, but trap like maniacs right as team cross half court. I'd love to see other variations in addition. I think if we really mixed up things, it would really get to teams, turn up our D a bit more at times - I know it's pretty darn good now- I think it could give us the edge in our toughest games. Let's face it, creating turnovers off the press is really needed this season as our O struggles so much. I feel like we are well scouted now. Any skilled/good team is not bothered by our style of press, it hasn't benefitted us in our losses turnover-wise and easy offense-wise. Iso, I'd like see us crank it up and also vary the press so teams didn't know what they were going to see next. We have the athletes/ players and depth to do it. We use multiple versions of the press and they fall into 2 categories IMO:
1. Most of the time our press is used to just slow them down so they only have 25-26 seconds to run their offense. With our D', that tends to force a lot of rushed shots as the clock runs down.
2. We'll also step it up a notch when we don't think the other team handles the ball well (e.g. young PG, only 1 ballhandler, etc.). That ones actually designed for force TO's.
During the CSU game, a team which handles the press pretty well, we went with #1 most of the game. The only problem is our intensity once they got the ball downcourt wasn't all that great, but even more so they simply hit all their 3's. Had we not pressed they would have had 30 seconds to work us over vs. 26. It wasn't the press that hurt us.
However, when we had some momentum and/or when we were down big & needed to get the ball back quicker it did appear we went with a higher pressure zone. Not the best thing against a quality ballhandling team like CSU, but necessary to switch it up, especially when you're playing catch-up. They definitely burned us a few times.
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Post by seasonticket on Jan 26, 2015 13:41:24 GMT -8
Press works best with Spencer in the game. Almost always after the press is broken they just pull up because they do not want to challenge Spencer and that lets the guys trap and gamble.
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Post by aztecdan8 on Jan 26, 2015 15:25:42 GMT -8
New Mexico had a lot of upperclassmen last year. Press seemed to work okay on them Only because they had never seen the 1-3-1 defense for that one game. If memory serves, we briefly tried it again in the MWC tourney vs NM, and it didn't work at all. There were ready for it that time. Lends credence to your comment above Plus, to earlier poster, the 1-3-1 is not a press but is a half court zone D.
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Post by aztecdan8 on Jan 26, 2015 15:29:40 GMT -8
The coaches all know the tendencies of each other coach and their strategies . So for the top 5 teams in the conference , who have experienced players , you are not going to beat them with a full court press . It boils down to what players execute better then the other team . Both on defense and offense . Game was 73-72 near the end and CSU was able to finish , and we did not . Need go to guys on both ends of the court . Our two fifth year seniors (AQ and JJ) who had the ball and shots could not pull it out . You need that in close games . From here on out we'll be seeing more close games than not. We have to find a solution to finish out games. I don't like the 50% chance of hitting perimeter shots by the wrong shooters. They've got to play smarter because we don't have a go to guy. Plus if you have mediocre FT shooters involved during crunch time ... Well, we saw how that turned out last night
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Post by danloc09 on Jan 26, 2015 15:38:13 GMT -8
Only because they had never seen the 1-3-1 defense for that one game. If memory serves, we briefly tried it again in the MWC tourney vs NM, and it didn't work at all. There were ready for it that time. Lends credence to your comment above Plus, to earlier poster, the 1-3-1 is not a press but is a half court zone D. It can be either. We use a 1-3-1 press a lot.
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Post by xohsxc on Jan 26, 2015 15:39:21 GMT -8
The primary reasons the team can't effectively full court press are: (1) no Dwayne Polee; and (2) more Malik Pope on the court. The former had great defensive instincts for positioning and gambling for steals; the latter is mostly lost on defense. We aren't quick enough without Polee to press effectively!
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Post by aztech on Jan 26, 2015 15:47:19 GMT -8
The primary reasons the team can't effectively full court press are: (1) no Dwayne Polee; and (2) more Malik Pope on the court. The former had great defensive instincts for positioning and gambling for steals; the latter is mostly lost on defense. We aren't quick enough without Polee to press effectively! Not only that, his shots would probably be falling by now like the rest of our shooters. Such a shame to miss his senior year, I really feel badly for him.
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Post by DeeMoney on Jan 26, 2015 16:09:13 GMT -8
There is a 69% correlation between our defensive turnover % and defensive efficiency. This number is very high, I don't have the backlog of numbers with me now; but somewhere I have the correlation stats for teams over the past few years and don't remember many teams being this high (VCU only went that high once in the past few years for example). This doesn't mean that we need to press, more of an indicator of what we do. 69% correlation is not "very high". Defensive efficiency factorsTurnovers Rebounding Low Opponent 2 point shooting percentage (Blocked shots) Low Opponent 3 point shooting percentage Few Opponent free throws All are important and all probably correlate positively to efficiency since they are the factors that determine it. I would suspect low opponent free throws correlates the best but have no numbers. 69% is higher than all but three teams in the top 25 (Duke, Louisville, Butler) so to say that it is not "very high" is to ignore the fact that "very" is a relative term.
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Post by standiego on Jan 26, 2015 16:28:35 GMT -8
The DA is about the same as DP , believe this year Hutson has used a style of a 2-3 zone . The important thing is to change things up on the other team . Plus no matter what , just defend . Man to man . You have to guard some one . Execute and just play defense . It is not the system that makes the defense work it is the players . If they buy in to playing D , that is the harder sell . Spencer can defend most centers or if in a zone the middle . JJ plays D and so does Shepard . Same thing with The DA. Keep it basic and have them play lock down defense. In some ways wonder if Pope is having trouble on D then play basic man or basic zone , to keep him in the game if he is hot . Also remember the key is games we are playing against the top offensive teams . As of today Fresno , Slow Pokes, Rams , Lobos , BSU and maybe Rebels . We have athletic guys do not make it too complicated just make it 5 for 35 , 5 guys at a time playing a full 35 seconds of defense .
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 26, 2015 17:07:05 GMT -8
69% correlation is not "very high". Defensive efficiency factorsTurnovers Rebounding Low Opponent 2 point shooting percentage (Blocked shots) Low Opponent 3 point shooting percentage Few Opponent free throws All are important and all probably correlate positively to efficiency since they are the factors that determine it. I would suspect low opponent free throws correlates the best but have no numbers. 69% is higher than all but three teams in the top 25 (Duke, Louisville, Butler) so to say that it is not "very high" is to ignore the fact that "very" is a relative term. I was thinking you were correlating turnover % to defensive efficiency for teams during a season. That would be every teams TO% correlated to every teams DE. You must be correlating our games results and not our overall statistics. OK I get it. 69% really doesn't impress me still. OPS in baseball correlates about 96% to runs scored, for instance. But I guess it means that causing turnovers is a big part of how we defend well.
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