Post by AztecWilliam on Jan 27, 2011 18:23:14 GMT -8
Yes, it's true that practically nobody (maybe nobody) thought before the season that we would be 20-1 right now. The problem is that the one loss has just occurred, in conference, and to the one team we desperately wanted to beat away from home. I have no doubt that every single Aztec fan reading this would much . . . MUCH . . . rather have lost to Gonzaga or St. Mary's and then beaten the Zoobs.
I'm not too worried about how we are rated nationally. I'm worried that, 20-1 or not, we are in a spot where any bad run will cost us dearly when the brackets for the NCAA tourney are put together. If I started a poll (I won't . . . I generally dislike polls) asking how many fans think we will beat BYU at home, the vast majority would probably say "YES!" I think we can, but I'm guessing that the smart money will call this one even money. If Jimmer explodes again and one or two of our guys are a bit off, we go down.
Okay, that would be two losses. We still have to play at Wyoming; that's never easy. (I remember a Marshall Faulk-led Aztec team in 1992, one that had tied USC and had beaten BYU in Provo, go to Laramie and lay a 17-6 egg against a mediocre 4-5 Cowboy team,). We must also play at Colorado State and UNLV, and those two teams may not be BYU, but they aren't chopped liver, either.
The point is this. We really, really, really need a very high seed to help us get to the Sweet-16 (or farther). If we end up with a couple of losses in conference to BYU and perhaps one more in the tournament, we will be about 31-3. That should be good enough to earn no worse than a four seed, and maybe a three. But if we drop both games to BYU and two more somewhere along the way and then go 1-1 in the MWC tournament, we may drop down to a 6 or 7 seed. We would be a bit over 50/50 to make the second round in that case.
Here's the point. As good as the Aztecs are this year, they nevertheless have some serious weaknesses. Those weaknesses are likely to prove fatal against the top half a dozen teams in the country unless SDSU plays the kind of game we saw against Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and New Mexico. The only way we delay that kind of match-up (i.e., against a Top-5 team) is to get a top three seed in our bracket, and we won't get that if we lose again to BYU and also drop a couple more along the way.
Maybe, just maybe, if and when we reach the Sweet-16, we will play one of those complete games that will result in a big upset over a one or two seed and put us in the Elite Eight. To do that we do not have to win out, but we have to come close.
AzWm
.
I'm not too worried about how we are rated nationally. I'm worried that, 20-1 or not, we are in a spot where any bad run will cost us dearly when the brackets for the NCAA tourney are put together. If I started a poll (I won't . . . I generally dislike polls) asking how many fans think we will beat BYU at home, the vast majority would probably say "YES!" I think we can, but I'm guessing that the smart money will call this one even money. If Jimmer explodes again and one or two of our guys are a bit off, we go down.
Okay, that would be two losses. We still have to play at Wyoming; that's never easy. (I remember a Marshall Faulk-led Aztec team in 1992, one that had tied USC and had beaten BYU in Provo, go to Laramie and lay a 17-6 egg against a mediocre 4-5 Cowboy team,). We must also play at Colorado State and UNLV, and those two teams may not be BYU, but they aren't chopped liver, either.
The point is this. We really, really, really need a very high seed to help us get to the Sweet-16 (or farther). If we end up with a couple of losses in conference to BYU and perhaps one more in the tournament, we will be about 31-3. That should be good enough to earn no worse than a four seed, and maybe a three. But if we drop both games to BYU and two more somewhere along the way and then go 1-1 in the MWC tournament, we may drop down to a 6 or 7 seed. We would be a bit over 50/50 to make the second round in that case.
Here's the point. As good as the Aztecs are this year, they nevertheless have some serious weaknesses. Those weaknesses are likely to prove fatal against the top half a dozen teams in the country unless SDSU plays the kind of game we saw against Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and New Mexico. The only way we delay that kind of match-up (i.e., against a Top-5 team) is to get a top three seed in our bracket, and we won't get that if we lose again to BYU and also drop a couple more along the way.
Maybe, just maybe, if and when we reach the Sweet-16, we will play one of those complete games that will result in a big upset over a one or two seed and put us in the Elite Eight. To do that we do not have to win out, but we have to come close.
AzWm
.