OSU and WSU settle with exiting PAC schools

[standiego]

as pointed out the P2 may only need to have the new PAC have 8 teams to start with

Would guess that the "expansion" teams will be schools that have a good amount of TV Viewers - and be a decent and short place to travel to for all sports and hopefully little elevation

SDSU - adds So Cal and parts of IE or OC

Fresno - Central Valley

UNLV - Las Vegas and surrounding areas

BSU - Idaho and parts of the other areas / states near them

would guess the marketers of the Media/TV companies have the stats on among the other teams being thought of have a good amount of Viewers - what are the numbers for Reno - San Jose - CSU and AFA ( but they are also in altitude and not always direct flights or easy to get to

Might there be 2 Texas schools - that have both Viewers and easy travel to - they do provide a good area for recruiting base into Texas

would also add that WSU and OSU are now seeing the departure of coaches and players that MW schools have had to face - in a variety of sports

[Den60]

Mar 26, 2024 12:40:27 GMT -8 🥸 Hopeless Aztec said:

Mar 26, 2024 12:14:17 GMT -8 Gundo said:

Lets take a look, U.S. News & World Report published its Best Colleges 2023 rankings, and there was a good bit of movement from 2022 to 2023 rankings among Mountain West schools here they are:

No. 105-tie: San Diego State (previous four years of rankings: 151, 148, 143, 140)

No. 151-tie: Colorado State (previous four years of rankings: 151, 148, 153, 166)

No. 170: Hawaii (previous four years of rankings: 166, 162, 170, 166)

No. 185-tie: Fresno State (previous four years of rankings: 250, 213, 196, 211)

No. 195-tie: Nevada (previous four years of rankings: 263, 227, 227, 240)

No. 216-tie: Wyoming (previous four years of rankings: 202, 196, 196, 228)

No. 236: New Mexico (previous four years of rankings: 212, 196, 187, 218)

No. 269-tie: Utah State (previous four years of rankings: 250, 249, 241, 254)

No. 269-tie: UNLV (previous four years of rankings: 285, 249, 258, Tier II school)

No. 332-tie: Boise State (previous four years of rankings: was ranked as a Tier II school the last four years)

Yikes, based on these numbers, I don't see CALFORD ever coming back with UNLV, Donkies or Fresno State.

UNLV is a R1 university with a medical school.

[Den60]

Mar 28, 2024 7:34:28 GMT -8 LostAztec said:

Mar 26, 2024 13:25:52 GMT -8 hoobs said:

I think they'd be fine with UNLV, as they are R1... which matters more than (or at least equally as much) as the very subjective rankings by USW&NR.

Other R1 schools who could be considered as candidates for a 'rebuilt' PAC X:
Colorado State
Tulane
Hawaii
Memphis
Nevada (Reno)
New Mexico
Rice
UTSA
Utah State
...and the plan is for SDSU to get upgraded to R1 quite soon (& we assume we're an automatic invite anyway)

So I'd say Wazzu and the Beavers could pick the 8 of those with the best media contract value to get to 10 total members. If they picked Hawaii... it could potentially be football only and then try to get Gonzaga to fill the 10th spot for all other sports. Personally, I would leave out Memphis and Utah State but that's without seeing how the various schools add different $$$ value.

I know the Utags get a lot of flak on here, but they are R1 and have a large research endowment. They have an Engineering Program partnership with ATK Thiokol. They even developed their own tomato. The Hansen Dx-252. It's a flavorful all rounder that does well in our high desert growing environment. Quite tasty. Most of their grads are in SLC, which is a booming TV market.

Their FB program has become consistent and the B-ball side is second only to the Aztecs. If they could just keep a Coach long term.

They would be a solid add to a perspective Pac10 but miss the cut at 8.

Pac 8
-OSU
-Wazzu
-Boozy
-Fresno
-Sparty (to create a Cal State power base. No more being captive to the Front Rangers.)
-UNLV
-CS-ewe
-UNM

Add USU and UNR for 10. Saint Marys and Gonzaga for Basketball only.

Seems like you left someone out of the top 8. USU, however, is one of the least diverse universities you can find out west.

[Den60]

Mar 28, 2024 9:42:32 GMT -8 fowl said:

Mar 28, 2024 9:14:53 GMT -8 sdmotohead said:

Did we forget about the exit fee that the MW has in place if OSU and WSU poach schools? Each additional school will cost an extra $2mil if I remember right.

$10mm for the first school and it increases by $0.5mm for each incremental school. So to poach six MW schools it would cost roughly $67.5mm from the Pac 2. Then add on to that the exit fees charged to each school which is either 3x's the most recent conference distribution (~$18mm) if notice is given more than one year out or double that amount if given under one year.

Let's assume that notice is given >1 year out. The total amount the Pac 2 and/or the departing schools would owe is $175.5mm. Let's assume further that by some miracle the departing schools are able to negotiate down the exit fee in half. That still would cost the Pac 2 $121.5mm to reconstitute the Pac. Is it worth that amount to WSU/OSU to be in the MWC minus six of the less desirable schools? No chance they get a significantly better media deal than what the MW already has. They should just merge with the MW and pocket that money.

Exit fees a negotiable, that just sets the upper limit. When all is said and done, the conference will have to quantify its losses. To me, $7.5M* per school (BSU being a bit higher due to their higher payout) would be where I would target them without considering revenue left behind to the conference. For 6 MWC members that comes to $45M. Were the PAC to pay half then that works out to $3.7M MWC school paid over a period of time. In 2 years, SDSU would be leaving behind at least $12M in tournament units.

If the PAC tries to bring Tulane, UTSA, Rice and Memphis along just remember only Memphis is getting paid a full share of the 4 in the AAC.



* I get to this number using the negotiated exit fees of AAC teams in relation to the amount of their media contract. If you want, you can do the math if it goes higher to $50-60M. Even at $60M, it still pencils out well.

[standiego]

what kind of Viewers % does USU actually have after Utah - BYU - take a good portion of the Viewers and again with the altitude of the Mountain schools

[Den60]

Mar 29, 2024 7:49:26 GMT -8 FULL_MONTY said:

Mar 28, 2024 18:43:32 GMT -8 fowl said:

I wish it would come to fruition but I can't see any administrator willing to gamble on several lower probability events ALL occurring at the same time and the payoff being 4+ years out when we all know WSU/OSU will split at the drop of a hat. Highly probably nothing happens and WSU/OSU try to join the Big 12/ACC and if that falls through merges with the MW.

I honestly don't think the PAC2 is interested in anything but stockpiling their cash for the next two years and try to join the MW or stay independent and move everything else into the WCC.

A regrouping of the PAC in their eyes would be leveling up competitors in the MW. JMO.

They cannot keep the all the money and not rebuild the PAC. If they fail on keeping the PAC as an active conference they would have to pay the back the tournament credits to those that earned them in full based on the amounts currently earned. The Washington court where the case was held maintains jurisdiction to ensure all parties are treated fairly. OSU/Wazzu entire case was based on the fact that they needed the money to rebuild the conference.

Now, perhaps they will try to use those tournament credits to "buy" their way into the B1G, B12 or ACC. B1G won't allow them in even if Oregon, USCLA and Washington had units due them. For the B12, only Arizona and Colorado has units due them. The ACC, don't think Calford earned any.

Neither OSU or Wazzu can expect to do well as independent. Who would schedule them? Pretty sure no MWC schools would. I'm also not sure the WCC woudl want them as actual members. Currently, their deal with OSU/Wazzu is that the WCC would keep any units earned by the two schools.

[Den60]

Mar 29, 2024 10:53:23 GMT -8 FULL_MONTY said:

Mar 29, 2024 9:19:22 GMT -8 hoobs said:

I am pretty sure the Pac 2 has to stay in "the Pac" and keep the conference / brand alive... otherwise I don't think they just get to "keep" the money. But they can use that stockpile to pay the exit fees of the schools they want to hand-pick to basically re-start the PAC.

At least that's my understanding.

The conference has 3 main sources of revenue.

TV Money - they are already on their own.
CFP Bowl Money - $50M for the next two years $100M in total)
Tourney Money - $65M over the next 6 years. They will collect more than a third in two years.
P12 settlement money - $65M

They can collect about $34M in two years in basketball credits, $100M in the next two years from the Rose Bowl and CFP, and $65M in P12 settlement for a total of $200M by just letting he two years lapse.

They will then either do the reverse merger with the MW and include everyone as to not pay a dime, join the MW as to not pay a dime, or stay independent/wcc and not spend a dime. They are looking to stay above the MW and hold down competitors all while retaining $100M each to maintain their advantage.

Both PAC schools need the MWC schools more than the MWC needs OSU/Wazzu. Any deal between the PAC2 and MWC schools would have to be equitable to get an agreement.

[Den60]

Apr 2, 2024 8:48:28 GMT -8 AZTEC4LIFE1992 said:

Apr 2, 2024 8:14:40 GMT -8 laaztec said:

No San Jose, Wyoming, Nevada or New Mexico. Keep the new PAC small and wait for Calford to come back when they realize the ACC deal was a disaster.

This! Why would you spend money to buy out mountain west teams that are going to be a negative impact on cash flow. They need to get to eight teams to satisfy the requirement and hopefully pick up Cal and Stanford, SMU and UT San Antonio are Tulane.

Addition by subtraction. Every conference, including the P4 conferences, wish they could leave some of their little sisters behind. We've seen expansion of conferences, but I see more of a contraction occurring when the top 30-40 schools break off and form their own league independent of the NCAA.

[Den60]

Mar 29, 2024 7:34:35 GMT -8 Cwag said:

Boise is where athletes can go if they want an easy degree and lots of free potatoes.

What do you have against potatoes?