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Post by aardvark on Aug 24, 2023 17:31:07 GMT -8
I completely disagree. Even before this happened, you rarely saw anyone in recent weeks including the Padres on any lists of teams that had a chance of signing Ohtani to a FA deal. I guess we should have waited a few hours. Comical. First time the Padres have been mentioned for weeks.
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Post by aardvark on Aug 24, 2023 17:33:28 GMT -8
What a great way to start correcting that by signing Ohtani. A guy who will be 30 next year, won't pitch until 2025 in all likelihood and will have to play the field at some point to justify the contract? Sure thing. So...it doesn't work for the Giants but it will work for the Padres? Sure thing.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 24, 2023 18:48:17 GMT -8
A guy who will be 30 next year, won't pitch until 2025 in all likelihood and will have to play the field at some point to justify the contract? Sure thing. So...it doesn't work for the Giants but it will work for the Padres? Sure thing. I don't want to sign Ohtani, personally. But the Padres have the better far+term outlook and the better farm.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 24, 2023 21:52:34 GMT -8
I guess we should have waited a few hours. Comical. First time the Padres have been mentioned for weeks. What does Shohei's value look like right now? How long of a contract will teams be willing to give him, given the uncertainty around his ability to pitch after his second TJ? How bad of a fielder is he? Could he play at a corner outfield spot?
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Post by johneaztec on Aug 25, 2023 9:33:37 GMT -8
Comical. First time the Padres have been mentioned for weeks. What does Shohei's value look like right now? How long of a contract will teams be willing to give him, given the uncertainty around his ability to pitch after his second TJ? How bad of a fielder is he? Could he play at a corner outfield spot? He's had an injury history. If I'm a GM, I'm evaluating his worth only as a batter. Probably a DH most of the time. He must have lost a lot of money because of this, unless somebody's willing to pay for him as a pitcher, as well.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 25, 2023 9:52:26 GMT -8
A guy who will be 30 next year, won't pitch until 2025 in all likelihood and will have to play the field at some point to justify the contract? Sure thing. Too bad he's not a SS. AJ would pick him up in a heartbeat. Where does this narrative come from? Bogaerts wasn't added because he was a shortstop.
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Post by aardvark on Aug 25, 2023 10:44:37 GMT -8
Too bad he's not a SS. AJ would pick him up in a heartbeat. Where does this narrative come from? Bogaerts wasn't added because he was a shortstop.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 25, 2023 10:49:47 GMT -8
Where does this narrative come from? Bogaerts wasn't added because he was a shortstop. But it's...true.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 25, 2023 12:25:48 GMT -8
Too bad he's not a SS. AJ would pick him up in a heartbeat. Where does this narrative come from? Bogaerts wasn't added because he was a shortstop. Oh come on, AJ loves drafting shortstops because they are often the best athletes on the field, and even if they aren't as athletic as hoped, they can just be shifted to second base, third base or right field. The fact that he is a shortstop is 100% relevant, because he could be shifted to second, third or right later in his career (he did sign a long contract).
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 25, 2023 12:36:34 GMT -8
Where does this narrative come from? Bogaerts wasn't added because he was a shortstop. Oh come on, AJ loves drafting shortstops because they are often the best athletes on the field, and even if they aren't as athletic as hoped, they can just be shifted to second base, third base or right field. The fact that he is a shortstop is 100% relevant, because he could be shifted to second, third or right later in his career (he did sign a long contract). But that's not the same thing or the spirit of the argument. He wasn't signed because he was a shortstop. All you have to do is look at their previous inquiries to figure that out.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 25, 2023 12:37:18 GMT -8
If you're the Padres, and you're considering going for Ohtani, do you propose a contract that is light in compensation at the beginning and the end? For example: 2024: 5M 2025: 25M 2026: 30M 2027: 30M 2028: 25M 2029: 20M
That's an average of 22.5M per year for 135M total.
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 25, 2023 12:41:14 GMT -8
If you're the Padres, and you're considering going for Ohtani, do you propose a contract that is light in compensation at the beginning and the end? For example: 2024: 5M 2025: 25M 2026: 30M 2027: 30M 2028: 25M 2029: 20M That's an average of 22.5M per year for 135M total. Ohtani would laugh, hang up the phone and then not talk to the Padres ever again.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 25, 2023 12:45:53 GMT -8
If you're the Padres, and you're considering going for Ohtani, do you propose a contract that is light in compensation at the beginning and the end? For example: 2024: 5M 2025: 25M 2026: 30M 2027: 30M 2028: 25M 2029: 20M That's an average of 22.5M per year for 135M total. Ohtani would laugh, hang up the phone and then not talk to the Padres ever again. Well that's what you would value him at as only a DH - 22.5M average value (and granted you are only getting him for 5 of the 6 years). So maybe you take that contract and add 150K for every inning pitched?
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 25, 2023 13:46:51 GMT -8
Ohtani would laugh, hang up the phone and then not talk to the Padres ever again. Well that's what you would value him at as only a DH - 22.5M average value (and granted you are only getting him for 5 of the 6 years). So maybe you take that contract and add 150K for every inning pitched? Not sure where you're grabbing numbers from, but you're a few hundred million light.
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Post by sdsuball on Aug 26, 2023 0:19:08 GMT -8
Well that's what you would value him at as only a DH - 22.5M average value (and granted you are only getting him for 5 of the 6 years). So maybe you take that contract and add 150K for every inning pitched? Not sure where you're grabbing numbers from, but you're a few hundred million light. You mean a longer contract/higher total? I would think that the market for him has dropped significantly given a second TJ. No guarantee that he will ever pitch again. At 22.5M guaranteed over 10 years that's 225M. 150K per inning pitched could be 15M extra per year for 100 innings pitched per year. If he pitched 9 of those years max, that's an extra 135M. That would put him at 360M/10 years at the top end. If he doesn't pitch - the value for FA DH's is not that high Ryan. If you pay him 40M or 45M a year over 10 years, you are getting gouged if he doesn't pitch again. Plus there's no guarantee that he continues to mash at DH coming back from injury. I just see a ton, and I mean a ton, of risk here with a big contract. What would you put his FA value at?
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Post by aztecryan on Aug 26, 2023 0:30:23 GMT -8
Not sure where you're grabbing numbers from, but you're a few hundred million light. You mean a longer contract/higher total? I would think that the market for him has dropped significantly given a second TJ. No guarantee that he will ever pitch again. At 22.5M guaranteed over 10 years that's 225M. 150K per inning pitched could be 15M extra per year for 100 innings pitched per year. If he pitched 9 of those years max, that's an extra 135M. That would put him at 360M/10 years at the top end. If he doesn't pitch - the value for FA DH's is not that high Ryan. If you pay him 40M or 45M a year over 10 years, you are getting gouged if he doesn't pitch again. Plus there's no guarantee that he continues to mash at DH coming back from injury. I just see a ton, and I mean a ton, of risk here with a big contract. What would you put his FA value at? I'm the exact opposite. I think the value might dip a little bit, but I still think he gets a record contract. Surgery isn't a guarantee at this point. And he's not your garden variety DH. We're talking about a 6 WAR player this year without a defensive home. I think he gets 10/450+.
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