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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 11:43:48 GMT -8
Post by The Aztec Panther on Dec 31, 2022 11:43:48 GMT -8
I have to be honest, Ryan. I have my doubts. Yes, he would be walking away from $160 million if he opts out. But the market is goofy--he could get even more on the open market if he just has another typical Manny year. But I really hope he stays. He's going to opt out if there's no extension reached beforehand, but he's not going anywhere. In the 2022/2023 free agent market he'd be worth probably 50% more than the Padres are going to pay him under his current policy. Why wouldn't he opt out?
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 12:06:28 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 31, 2022 12:06:28 GMT -8
He's going to opt out if there's no extension reached beforehand, but he's not going anywhere. In the 2022/2023 free agent market he'd be worth probably 50% more than the Padres are going to pay him under his current policy. Why wouldn't he opt out? Opting out doesn't mean leaving.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 12:15:11 GMT -8
Post by aardvark on Dec 31, 2022 12:15:11 GMT -8
I have to be honest, Ryan. I have my doubts. Yes, he would be walking away from $160 million if he opts out. But the market is goofy--he could get even more on the open market if he just has another typical Manny year. But I really hope he stays. He's going to opt out if there's no extension reached beforehand, but he's not going anywhere. I hope your right.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 12:16:14 GMT -8
Post by aardvark on Dec 31, 2022 12:16:14 GMT -8
He's going to opt out if there's no extension reached beforehand, but he's not going anywhere. In the 2022/2023 free agent market he'd be worth probably 50% more than the Padres are going to pay him under his current policy. Why wouldn't he opt out? So...at a 50% premium, he'll be worth $48 mil/season?
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 12:41:18 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 31, 2022 12:41:18 GMT -8
He's going to opt out if there's no extension reached beforehand, but he's not going anywhere. I hope your right. Call it an educated hunch.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 13:17:24 GMT -8
Post by The Aztec Panther on Dec 31, 2022 13:17:24 GMT -8
In the 2022/2023 free agent market he'd be worth probably 50% more than the Padres are going to pay him under his current policy. Why wouldn't he opt out? So...at a 50% premium, he'll be worth $48 mil/season? I don't know the exact numbers, but there are guys getting paid significantly more than him now, so with his skillset and leadership ability, yeah, he's worth a lot more than the Padres are paying him.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 13:37:08 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 31, 2022 13:37:08 GMT -8
So...at a 50% premium, he'll be worth $48 mil/season? I don't know the exact numbers, but there are guys getting paid significantly more than him now, so with his skillset and leadership ability, yeah, he's worth a lot more than the Padres are paying him. Exactly one position player in this class got more than $30M AAV.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 13:43:39 GMT -8
Post by aardvark on Dec 31, 2022 13:43:39 GMT -8
So...at a 50% premium, he'll be worth $48 mil/season? I don't know the exact numbers, but there are guys getting paid significantly more than him now, so with his skillset and leadership ability, yeah, he's worth a lot more than the Padres are paying him. He is going to be making $32 mil/season through 2028. Those are the numbers. So you're saying he's going to get $48 mil/season should he opt out and go somewhere else. I don't see that. Then again, I didn't think Judge would get a $40 mil AAV from anyone, let alone the Yankees, but he did, so I guess anything is possible. I would love for Machado to announce sometime during the season that he will not opt out.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 14:37:30 GMT -8
Post by The Aztec Panther on Dec 31, 2022 14:37:30 GMT -8
I don't know the exact numbers, but there are guys getting paid significantly more than him now, so with his skillset and leadership ability, yeah, he's worth a lot more than the Padres are paying him. He is going to be making $32 mil/season through 2028. Those are the numbers. So you're saying he's going to get $48 mil/season should he opt out and go somewhere else. I don't see that. Then again, I didn't think Judge would get a $40 mil AAV from anyone, let alone the Yankees, but he did, so I guess anything is possible. I would love for Machado to announce sometime during the season that he will not opt out. Maybe 50% is unrealistic, but 25%, however, is not. He's worth $38 Million to $40 Million in this market. He's the total package.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 15:20:42 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 31, 2022 15:20:42 GMT -8
He is going to be making $32 mil/season through 2028. Those are the numbers. So you're saying he's going to get $48 mil/season should he opt out and go somewhere else. I don't see that. Then again, I didn't think Judge would get a $40 mil AAV from anyone, let alone the Yankees, but he did, so I guess anything is possible. I would love for Machado to announce sometime during the season that he will not opt out. Maybe 50% is unrealistic, but 25%, however, is not. He's worth $38 Million to $40 Million in this market. He's the total package. With two reconstructed knees, I doubt it. The trend has been longer deals with less annual money. I expect that to continue.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 15:35:30 GMT -8
Post by The Aztec Panther on Dec 31, 2022 15:35:30 GMT -8
Maybe 50% is unrealistic, but 25%, however, is not. He's worth $38 Million to $40 Million in this market. He's the total package. With two reconstructed knees, I doubt it. The trend has been longer deals with less annual money. I expect that to continue. Salaries have gone up since Machado got his deal. His deal is no longer as phenomenal for him as it was a year ago. He can get more on the market now than he could before. That's a fact.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 15:42:22 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 31, 2022 15:42:22 GMT -8
With two reconstructed knees, I doubt it. The trend has been longer deals with less annual money. I expect that to continue. Salaries have gone up since Machado got his deal. His deal is no longer as phenomenal for him as it was a year ago. He can get more on the market now than he could before. That's a fact. Salaries have gone up, AAV's really have not.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 20:34:38 GMT -8
Post by The Aztec Panther on Dec 31, 2022 20:34:38 GMT -8
Salaries have gone up since Machado got his deal. His deal is no longer as phenomenal for him as it was a year ago. He can get more on the market now than he could before. That's a fact. Salaries have gone up, AAV's really have not. He can get a better deal now. Only a total blind faith homer would say otherwise. He was the difference maker that got the Padres into the playoffs thanks to his leadership. He's the guy who took the team and got their $#!+ together so they could beat the Mets and Dodgers. That kind of thing is invaluable - and every GM in the league knows it. You have to have someone on the team like a Manny Machado to get over the top. Talent alone doesn't do it. The fact that he's also a great 3rd baseman and is great with the bat makes him that game changer that every team wants.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 20:37:17 GMT -8
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 31, 2022 20:37:17 GMT -8
Salaries have gone up, AAV's really have not. He can get a better deal now. Only a total blind faith homer would say otherwise. He was the difference maker that got the Padres into the playoffs thanks to his leadership. He's the guy who took the team and got their $#!+ together so they could beat the Mets and Dodgers. That kind of thing is invaluable - and every GM in the league knows it. You have to have someone on the team like a Manny Machado to get over the top. Talent alone doesn't do it. The fact that he's also a great 3rd baseman and is great with the bat makes him that game changer that every team wants. Someone who understands math and the CBA, not a blind faith homer.
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Tatis
Dec 31, 2022 22:33:43 GMT -8
Post by sdsuball on Dec 31, 2022 22:33:43 GMT -8
Salaries have gone up, AAV's really have not. He can get a better deal now. Only a total blind faith homer would say otherwise. He was the difference maker that got the Padres into the playoffs thanks to his leadership. He's the guy who took the team and got their $#!+ together so they could beat the Mets and Dodgers. That kind of thing is invaluable - and every GM in the league knows it. You have to have someone on the team like a Manny Machado to get over the top. Talent alone doesn't do it. The fact that he's also a great 3rd baseman and is great with the bat makes him that game changer that every team wants. He can get more money in the deal, but at the same annual value per year. They can tack on 5 years to Manny's deal at 32M a year or something similar. He's getting an extra $160M through the contract extension - that's a lot of money! At most, maybe raise his annual salary to 35M
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Tatis
Jan 1, 2023 1:44:30 GMT -8
Post by The Aztec Panther on Jan 1, 2023 1:44:30 GMT -8
OK, looks like there will be some people with egg on their faces when Manny opts out.
Every single source I read says he will definitely opt out. He could have made more money this year as a free agent, next year the numbers will be even higher.
Yeah, he makes a lot of money now, but he's no Tony Gwynn. He won't be staying in San Diego for that San Diego discount. No one does that anymore.
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Post by aztecryan on Jan 1, 2023 9:35:39 GMT -8
OK, looks like there will be some people with egg on their faces when Manny opts out. Every single source I read says he will definitely opt out. He could have made more money this year as a free agent, next year the numbers will be even higher. Yeah, he makes a lot of money now, but he's no Tony Gwynn. He won't be staying in San Diego for that San Diego discount. No one does that anymore. Every single source (of which you've produced none) is probably correct. You're not understanding the situation here, though. He may opt out, but he's going to sign a longer-term deal here for less AAV. Not a discount, just the way the new CBA and luxury tax thresholds work. A soon to be 30 year old Trea Turner got 11/300. Bogaerts got 11/280. The only guy who got MORE of an AAV than what Manny already makes was Aaron Judge, coming off one of the best seasons in modern baseball history.
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Tatis
Jan 1, 2023 9:39:47 GMT -8
Post by The Aztec Panther on Jan 1, 2023 9:39:47 GMT -8
OK, looks like there will be some people with egg on their faces when Manny opts out. Every single source I read says he will definitely opt out. He could have made more money this year as a free agent, next year the numbers will be even higher. Yeah, he makes a lot of money now, but he's no Tony Gwynn. He won't be staying in San Diego for that San Diego discount. No one does that anymore. Every single source (of which you've produced none) is probably correct. You're not understanding the situation here, though. He may opt out, but he's going to sign a longer-term deal here for less AAV. There is no guarantee of that. There are a bunch of teams who would LOVE to have a player like Machado on their rosters. He's the guy who could take a marginal playoff team to a World Series team. That makes him invaluable. Great bat, great fielder, and a team leader who can get a team focused and rallying together. Someone's going to offer him a ton of money. Will the Padres be able to match that?
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Post by aztecryan on Jan 1, 2023 9:42:57 GMT -8
Every single source (of which you've produced none) is probably correct. You're not understanding the situation here, though. He may opt out, but he's going to sign a longer-term deal here for less AAV. There is no guarantee of that. There are a bunch of teams who would LOVE to have a player like Machado on their rosters. He's the guy who could take a marginal playoff team to a World Series team. That makes him invaluable. Great bat, great fielder, and a team leader who can get a team focused and rallying together. Someone's going to offer him a ton of money. Will the Padres be able to match that? There is a guarantee of that because the new CBA encourages good teams to manipulate the luxury tax by adding longer-term deals with less money annually. It's what the Phillies did, it's what the Padres did, it's what the Mets did, it's what every team will do. You're just baselessly speculating without giving any credence to the new CBA. We already saw what the new trend is, it's not changing anytime soon. And Manny doesn't make a marginal playoff team a World Series competitor. There's only two or three players in baseball that accurately fit that statement. He's not adding 10+ wins to a franchise, as good as he is. And another sidenote....how can anyone question whether the Padres can match a hypothetical deal? Look at their current payroll and look up the name Peter Seidler.
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Tatis
Jan 1, 2023 11:23:37 GMT -8
Post by The Aztec Panther on Jan 1, 2023 11:23:37 GMT -8
There is no guarantee of that. There are a bunch of teams who would LOVE to have a player like Machado on their rosters. He's the guy who could take a marginal playoff team to a World Series team. That makes him invaluable. Great bat, great fielder, and a team leader who can get a team focused and rallying together. Someone's going to offer him a ton of money. Will the Padres be able to match that? There is a guarantee of that because the new CBA encourages good teams to manipulate the luxury tax by adding longer-term deals with less money annually. It's what the Phillies did, it's what the Padres did, it's what the Mets did, it's what every team will do. You're just baselessly speculating without giving any credence to the new CBA. We already saw what the new trend is, it's not changing anytime soon. And Manny doesn't make a marginal playoff team a World Series competitor. There's only two or three players in baseball that accurately fit that statement. He's not adding 10+ wins to a franchise, as good as he is. And another sidenote....how can anyone question whether the Padres can match a hypothetical deal? Look at their current payroll and look up the name Peter Seidler. They've got a huge payroll even without Manny. They don't have the revenue to keep that up indefinitely. You can only run a business in the red for so long before you become insolvent. Seidler isn't going to give up his personal fortune to keep the Padres in the Top 3 payrolls in the league. There are other teams with more revenue than the Padres. If you think it's a done deal and Manny stays you could be in for a rude awakening. Look, I think it's pretty clear that I want him to stay, I'm just not at all confident that the Padres have the money to make that happen. They're tied up in a lot of other players. And given all the players they had to give up to get Soto they kind of have to re-sign him to not have it be for nothing, and that's going to cost a ton.
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