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Post by longtimebooster on Apr 5, 2020 5:09:11 GMT -8
Get used to it. In February, I posted the first don't-look-now-but-the-coronavirus-is-threatening-to-wipe-out-the-NCAA-tournament and was initially slammed by many as a wack-a-doodle doomsday prophet. Turned out, sadly, I was just a realist. Ugh. But I've been thinking the past few weeks that it's highly doubtful sports will get back on track until the fall of 2021 at the earliest. That means no Aztec football and no Aztec basketball these fall/winter/spring seasons. Painful. Not sure how the school and its administrators will handle this, but it's going to be a train wreck with lots of chaos. Sorry, but it's time we start wrapping our heads around this. Because it's gonna happen. In the meantime be safe and be well, everyone. Oh, and if we could keep the political gibberish out of this thread, that would be helpful. I'm interested in some learned opinions on how the school is going to cope with this as it impacts everything from recruiting, to player fitness, to coaching cohesiveness, to jobs, to budgets, etc., etc. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/04/how-long-until-sports-can-return-you-might-not-like-answer/
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Post by docmm on Apr 5, 2020 5:30:25 GMT -8
May I please borrow that crystal ball of yours? Just because you were right (I guess) about February, doesn't mean you're right about September 2021.
You go from "highly doubtful" to "it's going to happen" in 3 lines.
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Post by McQuervo on Apr 5, 2020 6:11:40 GMT -8
NancyMesa lives here...
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Post by mc08066 on Apr 5, 2020 6:43:04 GMT -8
I believe that you are missing one important item that could shorten the date. Better testing. Once they are able to conduct test that could identify exposed individuals based on blood samples, this would be a game changer and could allow them to get test results back in 2 hours. Currently being worked on and they are getting closer. With the medical minds from around the world You would think that a vaccine could come out in less than 12 months.
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Post by aztecforlife2006 on Apr 5, 2020 7:01:35 GMT -8
Too bad we are all on quarantine and we can’t come pat you on the back for your excellent negative view on the world of sports.
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Post by longtimebooster on Apr 5, 2020 7:35:15 GMT -8
May I please borrow that crystal ball of yours? Just because you were right (I guess) about February, doesn't mean you're right about September 2021. You go from "highly doubtful" to "it's going to happen" in 3 lines. I have no crystal ball, nor access to special information. What I do have is logic and a rational thought process (thank you, SDSU.) Further, please read the link to the article. Most leaders of major sports organization, while hoping for the best, are preparing for the worst. As are most medical and epidemiological professionals. While most people quoted in the WaPo article are trying to keep a stiff upper lip, if you read between the lines, most are admitting that getting back to playing sports is going to be a very difficult -- if not impossible -- road to travel and that a resumption of fall sports is looking more doubtful by the day. That's even with universal testing (Which is going to happen when? Heck, I can't even find TP, hand sanitizers or medical face masks and likely won't be able to do so for several weeks and even months. But all these testing kits are going to magically appear? Call me a skeptic, but I think not. Maybe by August/September, but not any sooner.) Relevant quotes from the article for your perusal and consideration: Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott told the Mercury News this week that the conference has reviewed multiple models for how the college football season could unfold. In the most optimistic, training camp will be standard and the season will start on time. “The most pessimistic,” Scott said, “has no season at all.” * * * * Despite the outward confidence, several franchises have pushed back deadlines for season ticket buyers to make payments and reminded them of policies on canceled games. One high-ranking NFC team executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the matter frankly, said the NFL should be prepared for any possibility. “The biggest mistake you can make right now,” he said, “would be to make an assumption.” The NFL has an easier path to return than college football. It would be unlikely and maybe impossible to start the season if students are not allowed on campus; Ohio State is one of several schools that have declared all summer classes will be taken online. The NFL has an option to try to separate players from the broader public that college football does not. “I can’t see us playing football without students, because athletes are students,” West Virginia University President E. Gordon Gee said. “I can’t see us playing football without fans in the stands and without students out there to support our team.” The possibility of a canceled NBA postseason, coupled with lost sponsorship from China after a preseason ordeal, could push the NBA’s total revenue loss over $1 billion. The scope of the financial damage prompted Commissioner Adam Silver and other NBA executives to take 20 percent pay cuts. The NBA has made it clear that it is considering all manners of rescheduling, including delays that could push the 2019-20 season into the late summer or early fall and require, in turn, that the start of the 2020-21 season be delayed until Christmas. * * * * The idea of creating a closed system for self-isolating players may be easier said than done. In a best-case scenario in which the NFL convenes for training camp early enough to start its season on time, what happens if one player tests positive for the coronavirus? In the NBA, one positive test caused the shutdown of the league. Could the NFL justify continuing its season? And could roughly 1,700 football players — plus an army of coaches, scouts and administrative staff — avoid infection? “I don’t know how you let these guys go into locker rooms and let stadiums be filled up and how you can play ball,” Herbstreit said in an ESPN Radio interview. “... Next thing you know, you got a locker room full of guys that are sick. And that’s on your watch? I wouldn’t want to have that.” For now, all leagues can do is wait. Sports can return only once the rest of society stabilizes, and that can happen only if social distancing guidelines are followed. It leaves sports fans in an unusual position: Rarely can they help their favorite teams win; now they might be able to help them play. “If you want to have football and college athletics in the fall, take care of yourself now,” Gee said. “That’s probably as good of a message as I can put out right now.”
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Post by docmm on Apr 5, 2020 7:53:16 GMT -8
"The most pessimistic has no season at all." Yes, that's the most pessimistic. Very far from the most optimistic.
I agree that the timeline for football is starting to come close to being encroached but that's a far cry from "no Aztec basketball these fall/winter/spring seasons."
We can argue who's more correct all day and we won't know. I'm just not sure why you appear to be more concerned about being "right" first than discussing more positive potential things about Aztec basketball.
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Post by azman on Apr 5, 2020 7:53:37 GMT -8
Unfortunately, this could very well be reality. As long as we are treating Covid as something that needs to have positive tests (and anyone in close contact) as being quarantined for two weeks, you can't have team sports. Even without fans in the stands, it would take just one player testing positive to grind everything to a halt. There is going to have to be a vaccine, or at minimum a very effective treatment, for quarantining to stop. Throughout the whole world, society has decided quarantining is the only answer for now. There is no putting that genie back into the bottle.
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Post by azman on Apr 5, 2020 7:57:41 GMT -8
I believe that you are missing one important item that could shorten the date. Better testing. Once they are able to conduct test that could identify exposed individuals based on blood samples, this would be a game changer and could allow them to get test results back in 2 hours. Currently being worked on and they are getting closer. With the medical minds from around the world You would think that a vaccine could come out in less than 12 months. So what happens when just one player or staff member on either team tests positive before the game? The game would be cancelled. What if someone gets infected in the days between games? You couldn't run a season like that. As long as quarantine is the only answer, you can't logically do it.
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Post by aztecbo on Apr 5, 2020 7:58:10 GMT -8
Well put, longtimebooster.
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Post by 12414 on Apr 5, 2020 8:18:05 GMT -8
My money is on our country’s and the world’s scientists to develop a treatment and/or vaccine very soon.
They are the best. And they are relentless.
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Post by docmm on Apr 5, 2020 8:26:56 GMT -8
My money is on our country’s and the world’s scientists to develop a treatment and/or vaccine very soon. They are the best. And they are relentless. And unfortunately, maybe more important to its getting done, it will make a buttload of money for whoever discovers it.
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Post by longtimebooster on Apr 5, 2020 8:34:24 GMT -8
I'm just not sure why you appear to be more concerned about being "right" first than discussing more positive potential things about Aztec basketball. I'm not concerned about being right. In fact, I'd love nothing more than to be proven grossly and negligently wrong. But I don't think that's the case. Further, I just can't bring myself to get fired up about the usual banter about the upcoming seasons, new recruits, coaching salaries, whether Flynn's coming back, etc., because those topics just seem so secondary to fast-moving national tragedy we're all experiencing. As for returning to "normal," every person I've heard or read associated with the dramatic search for a vaccine says there's virtually no way we can get a vaccine done quicker than 12 to 18 mos. And there's really no way to return to normal until there's a proven vaccine. So, best case, we're looking at a Jan. 2021 to June 2021 timeframe. Ergo, the logical timeline would preclude all fall sports and likely all winter sports, meaning the cancellation of both the football and basketball seasons. And, again, I'm not trying to be Eeyore, but I do think this is something Aztec fans (and virtually all other sports fans) need to start wrapping their heads around.
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Post by docmm on Apr 5, 2020 9:14:50 GMT -8
I'm just not sure why you appear to be more concerned about being "right" first than discussing more positive potential things about Aztec basketball. I'm not concerned about being right. In fact, I'd love nothing more than to be proven grossly and negligently wrong. But I don't think that's the case. Further, I just can't bring myself to get fired up about the usual banter about the upcoming seasons, new recruits, coaching salaries, whether Flynn's coming back, etc., because those topics just seem so secondary to fast-moving national tragedy we're all experiencing. As for returning to "normal," every person I've heard or read associated with the dramatic search for a vaccine says there's virtually no way we can get a vaccine done quicker than 12 to 18 mos. And there's really no way to return to normal until there's a proven vaccine. So, best case, we're looking at a Jan. 2021 to June 2021 timeframe. Ergo, the logical timeline would preclude all fall sports and likely all winter sports, meaning the cancellation of both the football and basketball seasons. And, again, I'm not trying to be Eeyore, but I do think this is something Aztec fans (and virtually all other sports fans) need to start wrapping their heads around. I understand the way you're looking at things, I really do. But I much prefer to fill more of my time with "the usual banter etc..." I have enough doomsdaying on TV and the newspaper already. I don't need another Aztec fan with no more access to medical information than I have, to educate me about what may or may not happen in the Covid 19 world 8 months from now. We all know things are bad and could get worse, why throw a turd in our Aztec BB punchbowl? Who are you really helping except to congratulate yourself later for your remarkable prescient powers.
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Post by AzTex on Apr 5, 2020 9:50:18 GMT -8
Get used to it. In February, I posted the first don't-look-now-but-the-coronavirus-is-threatening-to-wipe-out-the-NCAA-tournament and was initially slammed by many as a wack-a-doodle doomsday prophet. Turned out, sadly, I was just a realist. Ugh. But I've been thinking the past few weeks that it's highly doubtful sports will get back on track until the fall of 2021 at the earliest. That means no Aztec football and no Aztec basketball these fall/winter/spring seasons. Painful. Not sure how the school and its administrators will handle this, but it's going to be a train wreck with lots of chaos. Sorry, but it's time we start wrapping our heads around this. Because it's gonna happen. In the meantime be safe and be well, everyone. Oh, and if we could keep the political gibberish out of this thread, that would be helpful. I'm interested in some learned opinions on how the school is going to cope with this as it impacts everything from recruiting, to player fitness, to coaching cohesiveness, to jobs, to budgets, etc., etc. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/04/how-long-until-sports-can-return-you-might-not-like-answer/It just proves that wack-a-doodle's can be right on occasion.
If we can keep politics out of this thread that will not only be a wonderful thing, it'll be one of the few places the Covid discussion isn't full of political gibberish.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2020 10:03:58 GMT -8
Get used to it. In February, I posted the first don't-look-now-but-the-coronavirus-is-threatening-to-wipe-out-the-NCAA-tournament and was initially slammed by many as a wack-a-doodle doomsday prophet. Turned out, sadly, I was just a realist. Ugh. But I've been thinking the past few weeks that it's highly doubtful sports will get back on track until the fall of 2021 at the earliest. That means no Aztec football and no Aztec basketball these fall/winter/spring seasons. Painful. Not sure how the school and its administrators will handle this, but it's going to be a train wreck with lots of chaos. Sorry, but it's time we start wrapping our heads around this. Because it's gonna happen. In the meantime be safe and be well, everyone. Oh, and if we could keep the political gibberish out of this thread, that would be helpful. I'm interested in some learned opinions on how the school is going to cope with this as it impacts everything from recruiting, to player fitness, to coaching cohesiveness, to jobs, to budgets, etc., etc. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/04/how-long-until-sports-can-return-you-might-not-like-answer/It just proves that wack-a-doodle's can be right on occasion. If we can keep politics out of this thread that will not only be a wonderful thing, it'll be one of the few places the Covid discussion isn't full of political gibberish. I posted this on the other thread where people's nerves are starting to wear thin on both sides. I hope this helps a little knowing this country is doing everything they can. www.abc27.com/news/us-world/national/doctors-with-pittsburgh-university-announce-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/www.foxnews.com/health/potential-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate-developed-by-university-of-pittsburgh-scientistsabc7news.com/coronavirus-cure-covid-19-treatment-doctor-claims-jacob-glanville/6074011/sfist.com/2020/04/03/san-francisco-doctor-featured-in-netflix-series-says-covid-19-treatment-could-be-ready-by-september/
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Post by MarshallU on Apr 5, 2020 10:06:42 GMT -8
Get used to it. In February, I posted the first don't-look-now-but-the-coronavirus-is-threatening-to-wipe-out-the-NCAA-tournament and was initially slammed by many as a wack-a-doodle doomsday prophet. Turned out, sadly, I was just a realist. Ugh. But I've been thinking the past few weeks that it's highly doubtful sports will get back on track until the fall of 2021 at the earliest. That means no Aztec football and no Aztec basketball these fall/winter/spring seasons. Painful. Not sure how the school and its administrators will handle this, but it's going to be a train wreck with lots of chaos. Sorry, but it's time we start wrapping our heads around this. Because it's gonna happen. In the meantime be safe and be well, everyone. Oh, and if we could keep the political gibberish out of this thread, that would be helpful. I'm interested in some learned opinions on how the school is going to cope with this as it impacts everything from recruiting, to player fitness, to coaching cohesiveness, to jobs, to budgets, etc., etc. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/04/how-long-until-sports-can-return-you-might-not-like-answer/bookmarking this for obvious reasons. if a wackadoodle throws enough crap out there, they're bound to be right eventually. when they are correct, that doesn't make them prophetic.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 10:32:22 GMT -8
A vaccine could be developed in a month. Or it could take years.
We cannot afford to continue to keep the world shut down until a vaccine is developed. Doing this for more than 2 or 3 months isn't feasible. The economics of it are unsustainable.
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Post by RiffelBooks on Apr 5, 2020 10:32:53 GMT -8
It's not just developing a vaccine. That will take awhile. The first step to returning to normalcy is to have widespread testing, identifying who positive results have been in contact with and quarantining those people. That's how they stopped COVID in South Korea.
Right now, we're putting the onus on the general population to take precautions because we can't test and identify, even though the chances of the average person taking reasonable precautions catching COVID is very low. Once we can test and identify then we can talk about returning to a normal existence and getting sports back. Whether that's in July, or next July, is the question.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Apr 5, 2020 10:42:49 GMT -8
It's not just developing a vaccine. That will take awhile. The first step to returning to normalcy is to have widespread testing, identifying who positive results have been in contact with and quarantining those people. That's how they stopped COVID in South Korea. Right now, we're putting the onus on the general population to take precautions because we can't test and identify, even though the chances of the average person taking reasonable precautions catching COVID is very low. Once we can test and identify then we can talk about returning to a normal existence and getting sports back. Whether that's in July, or next July, is the question. We can't wait until July, 2021. We have to get back to something more normal by THIS July or the world economy collapses, and then this all becomes a moot point. If football isn't back by September there will be much bigger issues to deal with.
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