San Diego State vs Gonzaga NCAA Seed

[soccer94]

I find it troubling that the NCAA Tournament committee has San Diego State behind Gonzaga for the #1 seed in the west even with their loss to Michigan. It made me want to do a little more digging into the numbers and metrics. Most of this data below is through either today or yesterday:

Gonzaga
.Net - 3
Kenpom SOS Rank - 242
Kenpom Ranking - 3
Kenpom AdjEM - +27.31
Bart Torvik Ranking - 3
BPI Ranking - 3
Sagarin - 3
RPI Ranking - 16


San Diego State
.Net - 1
Kenpom SOS Rank - 201
Kenpom Ranking - 4
Kenpom AdjEM - +27.27
Bart Torvik Ranking - 6
BPI Ranking - 6
Sagarin - 6
RPI Ranking - 9

Overall, metrics are pretty even, but considering the .Net is the one they are supposed to be basing their decisions on, you would think we have the advantage. SDSU higher in .Net and Kenpom's SOS. Gonzaga has us beat on BPI (by .04), Sagarin and Bart Torvik. We are better in RPI.

The Duke athletic director claimed Gonzaga's wins against Oregon and Arizona were superior to San Diego State's wins over Iowa and Creighton. I will give him that maybe..., but it is close and subjective, and in my opinion, the Gonzaga loss to Michigan vs no losses as of now for San Diego State should be a deal breaker and knock Gonzaga down below San Diego State. It is possible that Creighton could win the Big East, and Iowa is top 3 in the Big Ten that all the pundits claim is the best league in college basketball.

According to the .Net, Gonzaga has a few better games in West Coast Conference playing St. Mary's and BYU once each so far, but the MWC has more mid highly ranked teams. But they have also played a close game against San Francisco and get them again. Also Gonzaga opponents that looked very strong early in the year no longer look so strong, Michigan (who they lost to) and North Carolina come to mind. Both SDSU and Gonzaga have wins over BYU, but our win is at BYU, Gonzaga's is at home, with BYU on the road coming up Saturday in a game I think the Zags could lose. So for now, BYU is a kind of a wash. We have Utah State, Nevada and Boise State as probably the strongest opponents in the MWC, but none are as high as St. Mary's and BYU at this point, but all better than anyone else in the WCC.

Remaining schedule:

San Diego State - vs UNLV, vs Colorado State, @nevada, MWC Tourney..

Gonzaga - vs San Francisco, @byu, vs USD, vs St. Mary's, WCC Tourney...

Let's looks at Iowa and Creighton vs Arizona and Oregon along with a few other relevant opponents in the different metrics:

.Net Ranking - Advantage Gonzaga, but Michigan loss should be enough to lean it to San Diego State
8 - Arizona (Gonzaga Road Win)
14 - Creighton (San Diego State Neutral Win)
22 - BYU (Gonzaga Home Win, San Diego State Road Win)
23 - Oregon (Gonzaga Neutral Win)
30 - Iowa (San Diego State Neutral Win)
31 - Michigan (Gonzaga Loss)
34 - St. Mary's (Gonzaga Road Win)
42 - Utah State (San Diego State Home and Road Win)
89 - Nevada (San Diego State Home Win)
91 - Boise State (San Diego State Home and Road Win)
97 - Colorado State (San Diego State Road Win)
101 - San Francisco (Gonzaga Road Win)
114 - Pacific (Gonzaga Home Win)

Kenpom - Advantage Even, Michigan loss should lean it to San Diego State
13 - Arizona (Gonzaga Road Win)
14 - Michigan (Gonzaga Neutral Loss)
18 - Creighton (San Diego State Neutral Win)
19 - BYU (Gonzaga Home Win, San Diego State Road Win)
21 - Iowa (San Diego State Neutral Win)
26 - Oregon (Gonzaga Neutral Win)
36 - St. Mary's (Gonzaga Road Win)
39 - Utah State (San Diego State Home and Road Win)
79 - Nevada (San Diego State Home Win)
85 - Colorado State (San Diego State Road Win)
88 - Boise State (San Diego State Home and Road Win)
91 - San Francisco (Gonzaga Road Win)
124 - Pacific (Gonzaga Home Win)

BPI Advantage Gonzaga
8 - Arizona (Gonzaga Road Win)
17 - BYU (Gonzaga Home Win, San Diego State Road Win)
18 - Oregon (Gonzaga Neutral Win)
22 - Michigan (Gonzaga Neutral Loss)
27 - Iowa (San Diego State Neutral Win)
32 - Creighton (San Diego State Neutral Win)
36 - Utah State (San Diego State Home and Road Win)
37 - St. Mary's (Gonzaga Road Win)
77 - Boise State (San Diego State Home and Road Win)
79 - Nevada (San Diego State Home Win)
88 - San Francisco (Gonzaga Road Win)
105 - Colorado State (San Diego State Road Win)
136 - Pacific (Gonzaga Home Win)

Bart Torvik Advantage San Diego State, Michigan loss leans it to San Diego State
10 - Creighton (San Diego State Neutral Win)
12 - Arizona (Gonzaga Road Win)
13 - Michigan (Gonzaga Neutral Loss)
20 - BYU (Gonzaga Home Win, San Diego State Road Win)
29 - Iowa (San Diego State Neutral Win)
31 - Oregon (Gonzaga Neutral Win)
36 - St. Mary's (Gonzaga Road Win)
38 - Utah State (San Diego State Home and Road Win)
78 - Nevada (San Diego State Home Win)
86 - San Francisco (Gonzaga Road Win)
94 - Colorado State (San Diego State Road Win)
108 - Boise State (San Diego State Home and Road Win)
121 - Pacific (Gonzaga Home Win)

Overall, I disagree with the committee members that ranked Gonzaga ahead of San Diego State. So did pretty much all the major bracketologists prior to the release of the early bracket by the committee.


Thoughts?

[johneaztec]

Nice analysis.

[bobcooper84]

If we finish the season 32-0, I believe we have a good shot at the #1 seed in the west....regardless of how Gonzaga finishes.....and, contrary to the seeding reveal two weeks ago....but, I'm not holding my breath...

[heuschele]

I’m biased but I agree with you. I will add a couple of other things.

The only real close game SDSU has had is the SJSU game. We have not only be3n winning, but we have been dominating.

The WCC team by team may be better than MWC, but MWC is a harder league due to the away games. USU and NM both have only one home loss (to SDSU) and Boise Only has 2 home losses (one to SDSU). This is because of some large arenas, some great home crowds, the difficult travel to get to some schools, and the elevation.

[aztecdan8]

Feb 16, 2020 17:51:38 GMT -8 bobcooper84 said:

If we finish the season 32-0, I believe we have a good shot at the #1 seed in the west....regardless of how Gonzaga finishes.....and, contrary to the seeding reveal two weeks ago....but, I'm not holding my breath...

I feel like if they didn’t have us in the west last week, we never will if both win out. This is blue blood bias. They have all the statistical support but then elitist blue blood ADs and the NCAA lick their index fingers, hold them up in the air in swank hotel meeting rooms and say “It’s Gonzaga, by just a hair”

When asked why not make SDSU a 2 seed in the west? Oh no way. That’s the double screw job.

They will say how eastern teams have been given the 1 seed out west as if that’s the same thing. It’s not. Not even close.

[aztecryan]

Feb 16, 2020 20:24:31 GMT -8 aztecdan8 said:

Feb 16, 2020 17:51:38 GMT -8 bobcooper84 said:

If we finish the season 32-0, I believe we have a good shot at the #1 seed in the west....regardless of how Gonzaga finishes.....and, contrary to the seeding reveal two weeks ago....but, I'm not holding my breath...

I feel like if they didn’t have us in the west last week, we never will if both win out. This is blue blood bias. They have all the statistical support but then elitist blue blood ADs and the NCAA lick their index fingers, hold them up in the air in swank hotel meeting rooms and say “It’s Gonzaga, by just a hair”

When asked why not make SDSU a 2 seed in the west? Oh no way. That’s the double screw job.

They will say how eastern teams have been given the 1 seed out west as if that’s the same thing. It’s not. Not even close.

Expect to get the Wichita State treatment.

[Boise Aztec]

Washington lost again and is moving quickly to become a Q2 for Gonzaga, which would make them 4-1 vs SDSU’s 4-0 against Q1 with both teams at 5-0 in Q2... starting to edge them out for #1 in the West

If both teams win out and Washington continues to fall apart...

SDSU Q1 - 5-0, Q2 7-0
ZAGS Q1 - 6-1, Q2 6-0

[aztecdan8]

Feb 16, 2020 20:54:51 GMT -8 Boise Aztec said:

Washington lost again and is moving quickly to become a Q2 for Gonzaga, which would make them 4-1 vs SDSU’s 4-0 against Q1 with both teams at 5-0 in Q2... starting to edge them out for #1 in the West

If both teams win out and Washington continues to fall apart...

SDSU Q1 - 5-0, Q2 7-0
ZAGS Q1 - 6-1, Q2 6-0

And we’ll get screwed. Unfortunately, mark my words

[AztecBill]

Feb 16, 2020 20:54:51 GMT -8 Boise Aztec said:

Washington lost again and is moving quickly to become a Q2 for Gonzaga, which would make them 4-1 vs SDSU’s 4-0 against Q1 with both teams at 5-0 in Q2... starting to edge them out for #1 in the West

If both teams win out and Washington continues to fall apart...

SDSU Q1 - 5-0, Q2 7-0
ZAGS Q1 - 6-1, Q2 6-0

If every game was a 50/50 shot having a 6-1 record would happen once in every 18.3 times or 5.5% of the time.
If every game was a 50/50 shot having a 5-0 record would happen once in every 32.0 times or 3.1% of the time.

It is much harder to go 5-0 than going 6-1.

The committee needs to understand that losses matter.

[docmm]

If, by chance, we don't end up above Gonzaga, I have prepared myself for an even better outcome:

Beat freaking DUKE! in the Regional Final to go to the Final Four in front of a mostly pro-Duke crowd at Madison Freakin' Garden in NYC Baybee!
Talk about raising your national profile, especially doing it on national TV in NYC. It would be akin to Boise State beating Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

Except we would then move on to play for the National Championship, something it's very unlikely for Boise State to ever do in football.

[soccer94]

I believe Gonzaga may be significantly better than Duke this year and our team seems to thrive on the road, so maybe getting #1 in the east would not be so bad. But I would still prefer to see Gonzaga lose one and get shipped out there instead.

[azdick]

Historical and current perception favors Zags if it’s a close statistical call, that is, Mark Few and his team are perceived to be the reliable west coast high seed, so we’re not going to get a higher seed unless BYU really beats up on the Zags, which is hard to imagine. I like watching our team of dogs (Matt M’s label, not mine) going out there every night and destroying other teams’ chemistry. I love how they play with that mammoth chip, and a seeding insult should do nothing to reduce that hard-edged drive.

Who ‘dat?

[DeeMoney]

Feb 17, 2020 10:02:28 GMT -8 docmm said:

If, by chance, we don't end up above Gonzaga, I have prepared myself for an even better outcome:

Beat freaking DUKE! in the Regional Final to go to the Final Four in front of a mostly pro-Duke crowd at Madison Freakin' Garden in NYC Baybee!
Talk about raising your national profile, especially doing it on national TV in NYC. It would be akin to Boise State beating Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

Except we would then move on to play for the National Championship, something it's very unlikely for Boise State to ever do in football.

I seriously doubt we land in the East as the #1 seed. Kansas and Baylor are in the same conference, so they have a minimum of two losses between them GUARANTEED still left on the table. If we run the table, and don't get the #1 in the west, we probably get moved into the MW or South in one of their places, while Duke gets #1 in the east (assuming they don't accumulate too many losses from here on out.)

[azman]

Feb 17, 2020 14:18:21 GMT -8 DeeMoney said:

Feb 17, 2020 10:02:28 GMT -8 docmm said:

If, by chance, we don't end up above Gonzaga, I have prepared myself for an even better outcome:

Beat freaking DUKE! in the Regional Final to go to the Final Four in front of a mostly pro-Duke crowd at Madison Freakin' Garden in NYC Baybee!
Talk about raising your national profile, especially doing it on national TV in NYC. It would be akin to Boise State beating Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

Except we would then move on to play for the National Championship, something it's very unlikely for Boise State to ever do in football.

I seriously doubt we land in the East as the #1 seed. Kansas and Baylor are in the same conference, so they have a minimum of two losses between them GUARANTEED still left on the table. If we run the table, and don't get the #1 in the west, we probably get moved into the MW or South in one of their places, while Duke gets #1 in the east (assuming they don't accumulate too many losses from here on out.)

That's what I'm thinking too. OR Baylor/Kansas gets the East with Duke still a #2. If we can't get the West, the South bracket in Houston would not be that bad

[sdcoug]

Keep in mind a lot has changed since the committee did their seeds. #1 and foremost, they gave the advantage to Zags because their best wins - Arizona & Oregon were both better than our best wins, and by a considerable margin. That's not the case today. Arizona is still the highest at #8, but Oregon's fallen to #22. Creighton has now moved to #13 & BYU #23, so definitely not the gap there was before.

They still have 3 Upper Quad 1 wins to our 2, but their 3rd is tenuous. We balance each other out in the computer models - they do better in the Predictive (Kenpom, Sag, BPI), while we do better in the Reactive (SOR & KPI).

If they did their seeding today they may not have Zags #1 in the West anymore. IMO SDSU, Gonzaga & even Duke have a razor thin gap between the 3.

[KDub]

www.bracketmatrix.com/

The tide is slowly starting to change in our favor. Number one seed on all but six brackets. The Aztecs have, on averages, inched above the Zags on 78 brackets as of this post.

I believe if we win out, we get the west.

[sdcoug]

Feb 16, 2020 20:54:51 GMT -8 Boise Aztec said:

Washington lost again and is moving quickly to become a Q2 for Gonzaga, which would make them 4-1 vs SDSU’s 4-0 against Q1 with both teams at 5-0 in Q2... starting to edge them out for #1 in the West

If both teams win out and Washington continues to fall apart...

SDSU Q1 - 5-0, Q2 7-0
ZAGS Q1 - 6-1, Q2 6-0

If you look ahead those could change, and they're more likely to change in our favor than theirs. 

SDSU: 
- Q1:  None of our wins are a threat to slide to Q2s
- Q2:  Utah (84) & UNLV (129) are rather tenuous when it comes to Q2s, although I doubt Utah slips 16+ spots to Q3. We want UNLV to keep winning so they don't drop 7 spots. 
- Assuming we beat @unr, adding a Q2:   
       * Best case - Q1: 4-0; Q2: 6-0 (10-0 total Q1/Q2);
       * Worst case - UNLV drops to a Q3 so 4-0/5-0   (9-0)
 
Zags:
- Q1:  UW is semi-likely to fall 8 spots to a Q2, especially if they lose at home to a Cal or WSU. The other 4 are solid. 
- Q2:  Texas A&M (134) & Santa Clara (135) are both hanging on by a thread, and easily could drop to Q3 with a few losses
- Assuming they beat @byu (Q1) & SMC (Q2):
      * Best case - Q1: 6-1; Q2: 4-0 (10-1 total Q1/Q2) 
      * Worst case - Q1: 5-1; Q2: 3-0 (8-1)

In the "best case" scenario they'd probably have a slight edge with 6 Q1 wins, including 3 Upper Q1 wins to our 2 (although its very likely USU moves into Upper Q1 & Iowa could with a string of wins). In the "worst case" I like ours more. The 1 loss balances out the 1 extra Q1 win, and their Q1/Q2 record is definitely worse. As long as Arizona & Creighton stay relatively close. 

The tournaments should be a wash. They'd possibly add a Q2 only if it's USF & a Q1 (BYU/SMC winner); we'd add a Q3/Q4 in the quarters (if Fresno/AF), a Q2 in the semi's (UNR/CSU/BSU) + a Q1 if Utah St in the final. We'd add 3 wins, to their 2. 

Obviously if either team wins out & the other loses its more of a slam dunk. 

And I definitely wouldn't rule out either Zags or SDSU being the #1 seed in the midwest or south, depending on how things play out. If Baylor loses @okie & loses at home to Kansas they could fall to the 4th 1-seed relatively easily. Assuming they don't win the B12 tourney, since that would add a 4th loss. Even if 2 or 3 are Q1s. 

[sdcoug]

Feb 17, 2020 14:51:50 GMT -8 KDub said:

www.bracketmatrix.com/

The tide is slowly starting to change in our favor. Number one seed on all but six brackets. The Aztecs have, on averages, inched above the Zags on 78 brackets as of this post.

I believe if we win out, we get the west.

And I think you can greatly discount any which are RPI-based, since those are majorly flawed. 

[KDub]

Feb 17, 2020 14:51:50 GMT -8 KDub said:

www.bracketmatrix.com/

The tide is slowly starting to change in our favor. Number one seed on all but six brackets. The Aztecs have, on averages, inched above the Zags on 78 brackets as of this post.

I believe if we win out, we get the west.

Btw, according to the consensus above, it looks like Utah St. has an at-large bid within reach. USU will be playing for their lives in the MWC tournament, but the Aztecs will be playing for history...and I like our chances.

[KDub]

Feb 17, 2020 15:03:09 GMT -8 sdcoug said:

Feb 17, 2020 14:51:50 GMT -8 KDub said:

www.bracketmatrix.com/

The tide is slowly starting to change in our favor. Number one seed on all but six brackets. The Aztecs have, on averages, inched above the Zags on 78 brackets as of this post.

I believe if we win out, we get the west.

And I think you can greatly discount any which are RPI-based, since those are majorly flawed. 

Agreed. We’re a five seed on one of those polls. Crazy!