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Post by docmm on Feb 13, 2020 7:16:20 GMT -8
Louisville was ranked #7 in the NET before last night. They lost to #82 Georgia Tech (albeit @ GT). They dropped ZERO slots this morning. How is that possible?
Maybe it's because they have a lot of NET build-up that's enough to absorb a loss. If we do indeed end up losing at Boise State or Nevada, who have similar NET rankings to GT, I hope we get the same pass. But I'm not counting on it.
Just win out Baybee and it will all be fine.
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Post by Sdsu4life on Feb 13, 2020 7:40:59 GMT -8
Louisville was ranked #7 in the NET before last night. They lost to #82 Georgia Tech (albeit @ GT). They dropped ZERO slots this morning. How is that possible? Maybe it's because they have a lot of NET build-up that's enough to absorb a loss. If we do indeed end up losing at Boise State or Nevada, who have similar NET rankings to GT, I hope we get the same pass. But I'm not counting on it. Just win out Baybee and it will all be fine. They didn't move because they haven't been updated. You are looking at yesterdays rankings.
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Post by aztecking on Feb 13, 2020 7:46:51 GMT -8
Louisville was ranked #7 in the NET before last night. They lost to #82 Georgia Tech (albeit @ GT). They dropped ZERO slots this morning. How is that possible? Maybe it's because they have a lot of NET build-up that's enough to absorb a loss. If we do indeed end up losing at Boise State or Nevada, who have similar NET rankings to GT, I hope we get the same pass. But I'm not counting on it. Just win out Baybee and it will all be fine. They didn't move because they haven't been updated. You are looking at yesterdays rankings. No. Today’s rankings are out and Louisville didn’t move at all.
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Post by Al-O-Meter on Feb 13, 2020 7:59:00 GMT -8
They didn't move because they haven't been updated. You are looking at yesterdays rankings. No. Today’s rankings are out and Louisville didn’t move at all. As the season has gone on, the NET rankings fluctuate less and less with each win or loss. They’re hardening like concrete. The one that shocked me was #8 Arizona losing to #112 UCLA by double digits on the Wildcat’s home floor in Tucson. Being that Arizona’s current ranking is why Gonzaga is getting the nod on the #1 seed in the west it is very much in the interests of SDSU for them to fall. Four days later, and without having played another game since the UCLA loss, Arizona is #9. That double digit loss at home to a #112 team dropped them only 1 ranking place.
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Post by Sdsu4life on Feb 13, 2020 8:00:50 GMT -8
They didn't move because they haven't been updated. You are looking at yesterdays rankings. No. Today’s rankings are out and Louisville didn’t move at all. Welp, that's the shits. The NET source I was looking at didn't have it updated yet. Oh well. We are ahead of them anyways.
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Post by Sdsu4life on Feb 13, 2020 8:03:12 GMT -8
No. Today’s rankings are out and Louisville didn’t move at all. As the season has gone on, the NET rankings fluctuate less and less with each win or loss. They’re hardening like concrete. The one that shocked me was #8 Arizona losing to #112 UCLA by double digits on the Wildcat’s home floor in Tucson. Being that Arizona’s current ranking is why Gonzaga is getting the nod on the #1 seed in the west it is very much in the interests of SDSU for them to fall. Four days later, and without having played another game since the UCLA loss, Arizona is #9. That double digit loss at home to a #112 team dropped them only 1 ranking place. Which is how it should be. The NET isn't like the AP and Coaches polls where it can be volatile. The NET is different. A Louisville loss last night doesn't take them from title contenders to has beens. They are still a very good team, and their NET ranking supports that.
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Post by docmm on Feb 13, 2020 8:12:47 GMT -8
As the season has gone on, the NET rankings fluctuate less and less with each win or loss. They’re hardening like concrete. The one that shocked me was #8 Arizona losing to #112 UCLA by double digits on the Wildcat’s home floor in Tucson. Being that Arizona’s current ranking is why Gonzaga is getting the nod on the #1 seed in the west it is very much in the interests of SDSU for them to fall. Four days later, and without having played another game since the UCLA loss, Arizona is #9. That double digit loss at home to a #112 team dropped them only 1 ranking place. Which is how it should be. The NET isn't like the AP and Coaches polls where it can be volatile. The NET is different. A Louisville loss last night doesn't take them from title contenders to has beens. They are still a very good team, and their NET ranking supports that. A "very good team" should still drop something after losing to a #82 ranked team.
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Post by Sdsu4life on Feb 13, 2020 8:25:09 GMT -8
Which is how it should be. The NET isn't like the AP and Coaches polls where it can be volatile. The NET is different. A Louisville loss last night doesn't take them from title contenders to has beens. They are still a very good team, and their NET ranking supports that. A "very good team" should still drop something after losing to a #82 ranked team. Yes, and they will in the AP and Coaches rankings. The NET is a different type of ranking. It's not by popular vote. It is by an algorithm. They definitely did lose points/value, but If they didn't drop any ranks, then that means the gap between them and the teams below them is pretty big. Also, we still have the weekend of games. The other teams can still gain points.
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Post by docmm on Feb 13, 2020 8:44:05 GMT -8
A "very good team" should still drop something after losing to a #82 ranked team. Yes, and they will in the AP and Coaches rankings. The NET is a different type of ranking. It's not by popular vote. It is by an algorithm. They definitely did lose points/value, but If they didn't drop any ranks, then that means the gap between them and the teams below them is pretty big. Also, we still have the weekend of games. The other teams can still gain points. It IS a different kind of ranking and because we've been so high for so long, it feels very accurate to and for us. But their algorithm also has Purdue @ #31 with a 14-11 record, including a stellar 4-8 in Q1. As long as you keep losing to highly ranked teams, I guess the assumption is that you'd beat worse teams. They lost to Texas, Nebraska and 9 pretty good teams all ranked in the top 36 NET. But it would seem that at some point, if you keep losing, you don't deserve to be in the Tournament. Wish that there was a part of that algorithm that substantially punished teams that can't even finish .500 in league play. There are presently 4 teams in the Big Ten under .500 in league that look like they'll be in.
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 13, 2020 8:45:15 GMT -8
It's statistics. The more data points you have, the less the variation. The later in the season you go, as data points continue to pile up, the variation will begin to narrow. Ergo, there will be much less fluctuation in the rankings.
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Post by Sdsu4life on Feb 13, 2020 8:50:01 GMT -8
It's statistics. The more data points you have, the less the variation. The later in the season you go, as data points continue to pile up, the variation will begin to narrow. Ergo, there will be much less fluctuation in the rankings. Yup! Well said.
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Post by aztecking on Feb 13, 2020 9:04:04 GMT -8
It's statistics. The more data points you have, the less the variation. The later in the season you go, as data points continue to pile up, the variation will begin to narrow. Ergo, there will be much less fluctuation in the rankings. In the case of Arizona it does seem weird though that they suffered a Q3 loss (by blowout no less) and are at the same ranking now as before that game happened.
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Post by namssa on Feb 13, 2020 9:13:23 GMT -8
My guess is if we lose to Boise we probably only drop a few spots. Likely still be in the top 3 or 4.
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Post by AztecPhil on Feb 13, 2020 9:19:24 GMT -8
It may, also, depend on the point cushion between them and the next team (Maryland). If they had a three tenths of a point lead over them, prior to their loss, and the loss resulted in them dropping two tenths of a point, they would still have a one tenth of point lead.
Personally, right now, I am not to concerned about Louisville or Maryland. I am more concerned about how our Aztecs do. Yeah, I do keep a bit of an eye on how the other top projected seeds (Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas), but still I'm more concerned with how we play.
Just play to win.
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Post by aztecking on Feb 13, 2020 9:28:25 GMT -8
It may, also, depend on the point cushion between them and the next team (Maryland). If they had a three tenths of a point lead over them, prior to their loss, and the loss resulted in them dropping two tenths of a point, they would still have a one tenth of point lead. Personally, right now, I am not to concerned about Louisville or Maryland. I am more concerned about how our Aztecs do. Yeah, I do keep a bit of an eye on how the other top projected seeds (Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas), but still I'm more concerned with how we play. Just play to win. It would be nice if the NCAA was transparent about how the rankings are calculated. We know the basic outline of what goes into the algorithm but without anything more specific (not even showing the relative difference between rankings) it leads to lots of questions. Kenpom doesn’t show how everything is calculated but at least he provides the rankings and point metrics for everything he uses. We can easily tell that we are close to passing Duke in his rankings. However, Gonzaga is only one spot behind Kansas but will have a very difficult time ever passing them.
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Post by stealthaztec on Feb 13, 2020 9:32:46 GMT -8
A very close friend and a good source from Kansas told me that the NET is run by the Wizard of Oz.
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Post by longtimebooster on Feb 13, 2020 9:50:01 GMT -8
A very close friend and a good source from Kansas told me that the NET is run by the Wizard of Oz. And the data is gathered by a horde of evil flying monkeys.
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Post by twobits on Feb 13, 2020 14:51:30 GMT -8
Hey, they have SDSU at #1 so they must be doing something right! BTW, I thought our sorry MWC schedule was going to brings us down on the NET ranking...seems that as long as we keep winning that won't be the case?
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Post by survalli on Feb 13, 2020 15:25:45 GMT -8
im curious as to why Arizona with 7 losses, a team who just lost to UCLA actually went from 11 to 9!
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Post by jdaztec on Feb 13, 2020 15:30:29 GMT -8
I trust the net itself more than the members of The AP or Coaches Poll. I hope we go undefeated all year. If however we lose a game or two before March Madness I would expect our #4 rated Aztecs to drop much further than a Blue blood program even if ours were a squeaker against a tier 2 team and they got blown out by a tier 4 team. Its kind of like Notre Dame in Football, if they go even 500 you can bet they will be in the top 25. It is the same way for Duke, Kentucky...
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