A Study on the Baseball Used in Games Last Season...

[aardvark]

...has shown there were no INTENTIONAL changes to the ball used in MLB (and AAA) games last season. A record amount of HR's hit again last year, and there were no INTENTIONAL changes to the ball. Must have been quite a few accidental or mysterious changes to the ball though...

[aztecmusician]

Its an adjustment to the systematic use of bullpens and starters, hitters are now sacrificing some BA and swinging for the fences. That’s why there are more K’s as well, hitters have changed their 2 strike approach and are looking to crush the ball on any count.

The launch angle era is here.

In the previous decade the league batting averages were usually in the .260 - .276 range. In recent years this has dropped to .255 (17) .248 (18) .252 last year.
The change in hitting philosophy is similar to the 1920’s when Babe Ruth started blasting 50+ HRs per season. Soon enough everyone else was trying to get into the act, BA’s lowered and suddenly there were dozens of players hitting 25+ HR, when the decade before 10-15 was a monster HR season. After Babe Ruth .400 hitters became less and less common and finally extinct by 1941.

Couple that with the changing of the strike zone and you have a HR explosion. Pitchers used to get by with a 90 mph fastball by playing the inside out game. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Doug Drabek and Orel Hershiser would have serious trouble in this era. Every pitcher must now throw 94+ to even be considered by a major league team. (Hence more Tommy John surgeries btw) This is because pitchers used to throw slightly off the plate, get the call, strike 3. Now a hitter needs to be overpowered or fooled by a slider or change up, which means faster pitches which leads to more home runs. This next season, unless the umpires are instructed to start calling a wider strike zone, we will see even MORE gaudy power numbers.

Look out Barry Bonds, your records could be going down.

[aztecryan]

The balls were juiced.

[aardvark]

Dec 11, 2019 18:48:09 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

Its an adjustment to the systematic use of bullpens and starters, hitters are now sacrificing some BA and swinging for the fences. That’s why there are more K’s as well, hitters have changed their 2 strike approach and are looking to crush the ball on any count.

The launch angle era is here.

In the previous decade the league batting averages were usually in the .260 - .276 range. In recent years this has dropped to .255 (17) .248 (18) .252 last year.
The change in hitting philosophy is similar to the 1920’s when Babe Ruth started blasting 50+ HRs per season. Soon enough everyone else was trying to get into the act, BA’s lowered and suddenly there were dozens of players hitting 25+ HR, when the decade before 10-15 was a monster HR season. After Babe Ruth .400 hitters became less and less common and finally extinct by 1941.

Couple that with the changing of the strike zone and you have a HR explosion. Pitchers used to get by with a 90 mph fastball by playing the inside out game. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Doug Drabek and Orel Hershiser would have serious trouble in this era. Every pitcher must now throw 94+ to even be considered by a major league team. (Hence more Tommy John surgeries btw) This is because pitchers used to throw slightly off the plate, get the call, strike 3. Now a hitter needs to be overpowered or fooled by a slider or change up, which means faster pitches which leads to more home runs. This next season, unless the umpires are instructed to start calling a wider strike zone, we will see even MORE gaudy power numbers.

Look out Barry Bonds, your records could be going down.

So...the hitters have changed their hitting philosophy, but only in MLB and AAA?

[aztecmusician]

In rookie and A ball the players are 18&19 year old kids. Being a few years older (22,23) makes a difference....just ask BYU.

It’s a couple of things, but yeah....guys are swinging for the fences, they are getting 95 mph fastballs with little movement from pitchers who should be in AA.

-Strike zones are narrower.
-Fat pitches, faster with less movement. Physics, Newton’s second law dictates faster pitches get hit farther.
-Stronger hitters with better strengthening programs.
-Smaller ballparks.
-A more aggressive 2 strike hitting approach.

These are all things which are provable, we know they have happened, unlike a non substantiated conspiracy theory.

[aztecryan]

Dec 13, 2019 0:25:19 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

In rookie and A ball the players are 18&19 year old kids. Being a few years older (22,23) makes a difference....just ask BYU.

It’s a couple of things, but yeah....guys are swinging for the fences, they are getting 95 mph fastballs with little movement from pitchers who should be in AA.

-Strike zones are narrower.
-Fat pitches, faster with less movement. Physics, Newton’s second law dictates faster pitches get hit farther.
-Stronger hitters with better strengthening programs.
-Smaller ballparks.
-A more aggressive 2 strike hitting approach.

These are all things which are provable, we know they have happened, unlike a non substantiated conspiracy theory.

This is incredibly naive. Smaller ballparks? Where? Is every team moving fences in? Baseball has come out and said that they believe the problem was seams on the ball were "inconsistent." MLB owns Rawlings now. They aren't going to flat out admit what they did. I suppose it's pure coincidence that balls used in the postseason just traveled less distance on average?

[Deleted]

Baseball was great when guys were juiced out of their minds, and guys like Bret Boone were hitting 49 bombs a season. Yes!!

How great was it rushing home from school/work/whatever to turn on SportsCenter or a live broadcast and seeing Sammy V. McGwire or Bonds hitting one into the f****** cove.

Loved it!

[aztecmusician]

Dec 13, 2019 9:55:00 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

Dec 13, 2019 0:25:19 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

In rookie and A ball the players are 18&19 year old kids. Being a few years older (22,23) makes a difference....just ask BYU.

It’s a couple of things, but yeah....guys are swinging for the fences, they are getting 95 mph fastballs with little movement from pitchers who should be in AA.

-Strike zones are narrower.
-Fat pitches, faster with less movement. Physics, Newton’s second law dictates faster pitches get hit farther.
-Stronger hitters with better strengthening programs.
-Smaller ballparks.
-A more aggressive 2 strike hitting approach.

These are all things which are provable, we know they have happened, unlike a non substantiated conspiracy theory.

This is incredibly naive. Smaller ballparks? Where? Is every team moving fences in? Baseball has come out and said that they believe the problem was seams on the ball were "inconsistent." MLB owns Rawlings now. They aren't going to flat out admit what they did. I suppose it's pure coincidence that balls used in the postseason just traveled less distance on average?

Petco for one.

Many of the newer parks (Chase Field, Miller Park, Great American, Rogers Center, Guaranteed Rate, Global Life, Camden Yard) favor hitters, not to mention Fenway, Wrigley or Coors Field. They are designed that way. Until MLB admits to tampering with baseballs, I’ll go with Newton’s Second Law....to every action (faster pitching) there is an equal opposite reaction. (Harder hit baseballs)

[aardvark]

Dec 13, 2019 0:25:19 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

In rookie and A ball the players are 18&19 year old kids. Being a few years older (22,23) makes a difference....just ask BYU.

It’s a couple of things, but yeah....guys are swinging for the fences, they are getting 95 mph fastballs with little movement from pitchers who should be in AA.

-Strike zones are narrower.
-Fat pitches, faster with less movement. Physics, Newton’s second law dictates faster pitches get hit farther.
-Stronger hitters with better strengthening programs.
-Smaller ballparks.
-A more aggressive 2 strike hitting approach.

These are all things which are provable, we know they have happened, unlike a non substantiated conspiracy theory.

Average ages:

Rookie leagues, around 20.

Short season A, 20.8.

Low A, 21.3.

High A, 22.5.

AA, 23.8.

AAA, 26.6.

MLB, around 28.

Just between AA and AAA, there was a HUGE discrepancy in the number of home runs hit between the 2 levels. Give AA the same ball that was used in AAA and MLB last year, and I would guess the HR discrepancy between AA and AAA would be much, much less.

[aztecmusician]

Dec 13, 2019 11:59:47 GMT -8 aardvark said:

Dec 13, 2019 0:25:19 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

In rookie and A ball the players are 18&19 year old kids. Being a few years older (22,23) makes a difference....just ask BYU.

It’s a couple of things, but yeah....guys are swinging for the fences, they are getting 95 mph fastballs with little movement from pitchers who should be in AA.

-Strike zones are narrower.
-Fat pitches, faster with less movement. Physics, Newton’s second law dictates faster pitches get hit farther.
-Stronger hitters with better strengthening programs.
-Smaller ballparks.
-A more aggressive 2 strike hitting approach.

These are all things which are provable, we know they have happened, unlike a non substantiated conspiracy theory.

Average ages:

Rookie leagues, around 20.

Short season A, 20.8.

Low A, 21.3.

High A, 22.5.

AA, 23.8.

AAA, 26.6.

MLB, around 28.

Just between AA and AAA, there was a HUGE discrepancy in the number of home runs hit between the 2 levels. Give AA the same ball that was used in AAA and MLB last year, and I would guess the HR discrepancy between AA and AAA would be much, much less.

So, what’s you point? I just unloaded a dump truck load of common sense explanations and your rebuttal is “average age” when the statement was not average age but the fact that there are indeed 18 & 19 year olds in the minors. Eventually they become 23 year olds who either hit for power or not.

I recognize your and Aztecryan’s agenda. You both are Pro Preller, who seems to be pivoting away from the power game into the OBP station to station game. We shall see if this gamble pays off. All of last year’s playoff teams, who hit tons of HR’s indicate this philosophy is going to fall flat.

[aztecryan]

Dec 13, 2019 11:21:38 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

Dec 13, 2019 9:55:00 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

This is incredibly naive. Smaller ballparks? Where? Is every team moving fences in? Baseball has come out and said that they believe the problem was seams on the ball were "inconsistent." MLB owns Rawlings now. They aren't going to flat out admit what they did. I suppose it's pure coincidence that balls used in the postseason just traveled less distance on average?

Petco for one.

Many of the newer parks (Chase Field, Miller Park, Great American, Rogers Center, Guaranteed Rate, Global Life, Camden Yard) favor hitters, not to mention Fenway, Wrigley or Coors Field. They are designed that way. Until MLB admits to tampering with baseballs, I’ll go with Newton’s Second Law....to every action (faster pitching) there is an equal opposite reaction. (Harder hit baseballs)

And you'll continue to ignore what is right in front of you.
www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-mlbs-new-home-run-era-its-the-baseballs-that-are-juicing/amp/

Rob Manfred admitted there was less drag on the baseball, which has a dramatic aerodynamic effect on how far the ball travels. A 3 percent change in drag coefficient means the ball travels 5-10 feet further than normal. That turns deep flyouts into home runs.

[aztecmusician]

I’ll believe everyone here.

I believe MLB when it says there is no deliberate attempt to juice up the baseballs.
I believe the veterans who state the baseballs feel slightly smaller and tighter with lower seams.


I also believe this is one factor of several which have led to more homers. Faster pitches (almost everyone throws 96 and up) and stronger players who generate more torque is certainly another.

images.app.goo.gl/Kgx2B9y5WtVibMXq9

Regardless, I love HRs, hopefully Tommy Pham hits 35 this season.

[aardvark]

Dec 13, 2019 14:13:46 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

Dec 13, 2019 11:59:47 GMT -8 aardvark said:

Average ages:

Rookie leagues, around 20.

Short season A, 20.8.

Low A, 21.3.

High A, 22.5.

AA, 23.8.

AAA, 26.6.

MLB, around 28.

Just between AA and AAA, there was a HUGE discrepancy in the number of home runs hit between the 2 levels. Give AA the same ball that was used in AAA and MLB last year, and I would guess the HR discrepancy between AA and AAA would be much, much less.

So, what’s you point? I just unloaded a dump truck load of common sense explanations and your rebuttal is “average age” when the statement was not average age but the fact that there are indeed 18 & 19 year olds in the minors. Eventually they become 23 year olds who either hit for power or not.

I recognize your and Aztecryan’s agenda. You both are Pro Preller, who seems to be pivoting away from the power game into the OBP station to station game. We shall see if this gamble pays off. All of last year’s playoff teams, who hit tons of HR’s indicate this philosophy is going to fall flat.

You are correct about one thing--there are 18 and 19 year-olds in the minor leagues, but the majority are older, hence the posting of the average ages of the various levels. There are already 23 year-olds in the same leagues as the 18 and 19 year-olds. Everything else--not so much.

And while Ryan may be pro-Preller, I most definitely am not. Nice guess though.

[aztecryan]

Dec 13, 2019 14:13:46 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

Dec 13, 2019 11:59:47 GMT -8 aardvark said:

Average ages:

Rookie leagues, around 20.

Short season A, 20.8.

Low A, 21.3.

High A, 22.5.

AA, 23.8.

AAA, 26.6.

MLB, around 28.

Just between AA and AAA, there was a HUGE discrepancy in the number of home runs hit between the 2 levels. Give AA the same ball that was used in AAA and MLB last year, and I would guess the HR discrepancy between AA and AAA would be much, much less.

So, what’s you point? I just unloaded a dump truck load of common sense explanations and your rebuttal is “average age” when the statement was not average age but the fact that there are indeed 18 & 19 year olds in the minors. Eventually they become 23 year olds who either hit for power or not.

I recognize your and Aztecryan’s agenda. You both are Pro Preller, who seems to be pivoting away from the power game into the OBP station to station game. We shall see if this gamble pays off. All of last year’s playoff teams, who hit tons of HR’s indicate this philosophy is going to fall flat.

Man, there is a truckload of dumb in here. None of the original argument has to do with Preller. And you clearly have no idea what Preller is doing, because he isn't pivoting away from power. He is pivoting away from one tool players who strike out in 27-28% of their at bats. You don't win by leading the league in strikeouts offensively. This decade, the Padres have never finished higher than 24th in team batting average. You have to make contact and put the ball in play. I hate to break it to you, but Houston was not in the playoffs because they hit home runs. Washington was not in the playoffs because they hit a ton of home runs. When the entire league is breaking franchise home run records, that should scream loudly.

[aztecmusician]

Dec 13, 2019 23:11:25 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

Dec 13, 2019 14:13:46 GMT -8 aztecmusician said:

So, what’s you point? I just unloaded a dump truck load of common sense explanations and your rebuttal is “average age” when the statement was not average age but the fact that there are indeed 18 & 19 year olds in the minors. Eventually they become 23 year olds who either hit for power or not.

I recognize your and Aztecryan’s agenda. You both are Pro Preller, who seems to be pivoting away from the power game into the OBP station to station game. We shall see if this gamble pays off. All of last year’s playoff teams, who hit tons of HR’s indicate this philosophy is going to fall flat.

Man, there is a truckload of dumb in here. None of the original argument has to do with Preller. And you clearly have no idea what Preller is doing, because he isn't pivoting away from power. He is pivoting away from one tool players who strike out in 27-28% of their at bats. You don't win by leading the league in strikeouts offensively. This decade, the Padres have never finished higher than 24th in team batting average. You have to make contact and put the ball in play. I hate to break it to you, but Houston was not in the playoffs because they hit home runs. Washington was not in the playoffs because they hit a ton of home runs. When the entire league is breaking franchise home run records, that should scream loudly.

Please refrain from insulting remarks sir. My opinions are generally more prophetic than yours...and that’s a fact.

[aztecryan]

...No.

[azman]

MLB is really going to say they could make a consistent baseball for about 100 years, and now all of the sudden they can't? Complete BS. The balls have been different for the last 3 years, that's a fact. The seams are different (at a minimum), and this was discussed before this past season. MLB can absolutely change this, there are already different balls for MLB and AAA, vs. A and AA ball. It was announced that before the season that AAA would be using the "MLB balls", and what do you know, HR's spiked to a ridiculous level in AAA. A and AA ball still have a "normal" HR rate. Has little to nothing to do with launch angle BS. MLB can start using "normal" balls again if they really wanted to, and I hope they do.

[aardvark]

Dec 15, 2019 10:24:59 GMT -8 azman said:

MLB is really going to say they could make a consistent baseball for about 100 years, and now all of the sudden they can't? Complete BS. The balls have been different for the last 3 years, that's a fact. The seams are different (at a minimum), and this was discussed before this past season. MLB can absolutely change this, there are already different balls for MLB and AAA, vs. A and AA ball. It was announced that before the season that AAA would be using the "MLB balls", and what do you know, HR's spiked to a ridiculous level in AAA. A and AA ball still have a "normal" HR rate. Has little to nothing to do with launch angle BS. MLB can start using "normal" balls again if they really wanted to, and I hope they do.

Kind of interesting that in the last couple of years, MLB (25%) and Seidler Equity Partners (75%) have purchased the company that makes all the baseballs. There are 2 different baseballs used--one for MLB and AAA, and one for AA and lower. I've heard one of the reasons for using two different balls is the AA and below ball is cheaper, and creates less financial hardship on the lower minor league clubs based on the thousands of balls they must buy each season. Sorry, but I call BS on that. Should an inferior puck be used in minor league hockey? An inferior ball in lower levels of soccer?

Use the same ball. In all of affiliated baseball.

[Deleted]

Power isn't THE reason some of the playoff teams got into October, but its a key reason- that's irrefutable to deny. Anyone can agree there are many pieces that build a contender.

But you can't just say "power is up across the majors, so it's just not as valuable". Look at the NFL. With rule changes protecting QBs and making contact with WRs penalized more, partnered with the popularity of spread attack offenses, passing stats are up considerably just in the last decade. Would you say, "everyone is passing for more yardage, so having a top passing attack in the league isn't important, you dont need a great QB or very good WRs"? No.

You absolutely have to have power in todays MLB. Zero question.

[aztecryan]

Dec 18, 2019 7:00:49 GMT -8 @josh said:

Power isn't THE reason some of the playoff teams got into October, but its a key reason- that's irrefutable to deny. Anyone can agree there are many pieces that build a contender.

But you can't just say "power is up across the majors, so it's just not as valuable". Look at the NFL. With rule changes protecting QBs and making contact with WRs penalized more, partnered with the popularity of spread attack offenses, passing stats are up considerably just in the last decade. Would you say, "everyone is passing for more yardage, so having a top passing attack in the league isn't important, you dont need a great QB or very good WRs"? No.

You absolutely have to have power in todays MLB. Zero question.

Nobody is saying you don't have to have it, but it IS less valuable of a commodity when half the league is breaking their franchise home run records. Meanwhile, the bottom teams in raw strikeout percentage? Miami : Awful. Detroit : Awful. San Diego : 90 losses. The issue is not the power; it's that you trade power for contact. You can't strike out 27% of your at bats and be successful. In the 90 games the Padres lost, their strikeout percentage was 31.1%. That's why guys like Reyes and Renfroe are gone.