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Post by DeeMoney on Dec 4, 2019 20:23:03 GMT -8
My favorite metric saw the Aztecs jump from 35 to 26 after the CSU game. Thanks CSU for consistently fouling us in the last two minutes despite the game being pretty much out of reach, that extended margin of victory helped.
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Post by azteccc on Dec 4, 2019 20:37:00 GMT -8
Last year’s data cycles out more and more every game, and we keep looking good. We know we’re good - it’s great the computers agree.
NET caps wins at 10, which is also going to be pretty awesome considering we’ve only won a single game by less than that.
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Post by DeeMoney on Dec 4, 2019 20:49:55 GMT -8
Last year’s data cycles out more and more every game, and we keep looking good. We know we’re good - it’s great the computers agree. NET caps wins at 10, which is also going to be pretty awesome considering we’ve only won a single game by less than that. I think 10 is too low of a cap. What do you think? If we accept MOV is a key factor then there should be a difference between an 11 point win and a 35 point win. |
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Post by sdmotohead on Dec 4, 2019 20:59:01 GMT -8
There should be a metric for playing at elevations over 5000 ft!
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Post by azman on Dec 4, 2019 21:47:41 GMT -8
There should be a metric for playing at elevations over 5000 ft! BPI actually factors in elevation! |
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Post by azman on Dec 4, 2019 21:48:24 GMT -8
Last year’s data cycles out more and more every game, and we keep looking good. We know we’re good - it’s great the computers agree. NET caps wins at 10, which is also going to be pretty awesome considering we’ve only won a single game by less than that. NCAA developed the NET metric, right? When do the first ratings come out? |
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Post by sdmotohead on Dec 4, 2019 22:17:38 GMT -8
There should be a metric for playing at elevations over 5000 ft! BPI actually factors in elevation! Really?! It's awesome that they actually take that into consideration. |
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Post by azman on Dec 4, 2019 22:22:51 GMT -8
BPI actually factors in elevation! Really?! It's awesome that they actually take that into consideration. Yep! Although I have no idea how they actually do it. Also, long distance travel is factored in. "Like most game predictions, BPI accounts for team strength, opponent strength and game site. BPI also factors in the number of days’ rest for each team, difference in distance traveled from home and high-altitude effects. Though the altitude affects only a few teams, it has been found to be predictive in those extreme cases. Similarly, most home-court advantages are captured in the game site variable, but a cross-country trip to an opponent’s home court is not treated the same as any other road game." |
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Post by docmm on Dec 5, 2019 6:39:22 GMT -8
Really?! It's awesome that they actually take that into consideration. Yep! Although I have no idea how they actually do it. Also, long distance travel is factored in. "Like most game predictions, BPI accounts for team strength, opponent strength and game site. BPI also factors in the number of days’ rest for each team, difference in distance traveled from home and high-altitude effects. Though the altitude affects only a few teams, it has been found to be predictive in those extreme cases. Similarly, most home-court advantages are captured in the game site variable, but a cross-country trip to an opponent’s home court is not treated the same as any other road game." That means they also took our 5 games in 10 days factor. |
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Post by Old School on Dec 5, 2019 8:10:44 GMT -8
Friends of SDSU have been sending Tweets to the powers that be (voters).
Oldie Out
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Post by fisherville on Dec 5, 2019 8:47:17 GMT -8
Last year’s data cycles out more and more every game, and we keep looking good. We know we’re good - it’s great the computers agree. NET caps wins at 10, which is also going to be pretty awesome considering we’ve only won a single game by less than that. NET only caps the margin of victory at 10, but there is no cap for the per possession efficiency because of that blowing out teams is still very beneficial in their method |
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Post by aztecking on Dec 5, 2019 8:54:27 GMT -8
Last year’s data cycles out more and more every game, and we keep looking good. We know we’re good - it’s great the computers agree. NET caps wins at 10, which is also going to be pretty awesome considering we’ve only won a single game by less than that. NCAA developed the NET metric, right? When do the first ratings come out? 12/16 is the date I saw for the first release. So we only play 1 more game before then. Assuming we beat SJSU by at least 10 points I would be shocked if we weren’t top 10 in NET. |
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Post by docmm on Dec 9, 2019 6:37:18 GMT -8
As previously stated elsewhere, SDSU dropped 9 places in the KenPom rating, from #24 to #33 after barely beating SJSU. There are seven 3-loss teams(including Texas Tech?!)and seven 2-loss teams listed ahead of us. He takes pre-seasons rankings into consideration because he thinks a dozen or so games doesn't give enough predictive data to accurately rank teams.
The pre-season rankings affect the list less and less as the season goes on and is no longer a part of it by about mid-January. We could/should be about 16-2, 17-1 or 18-0 by then.
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