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Post by azman on Dec 6, 2019 23:40:56 GMT -8
Because I would much rather have Richards with similar stuff pitching for the Padres given the current pitching market than Wheeler for a third of the price. Michael Pineda just signed a 2 year/20 million dollar deal and he is still serving a suspension. Bumgarner is supposedly going to get a 100 million dollar deal. What other guys are making directly influences spending. Correct--what other guys are making does directly influence spending. But we already had Richards under contract, so what Wheeler was signed for recently had nothing to do with us signing Richards last year. And...we are basically paying Richards up to $18 million to pitch one season for the Padres, as he only pitched 8.2 innings for the club last season. That's a bargain these days if he pitches in 2020 like his best years on the Angels.
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Post by aardvark on Dec 7, 2019 8:36:22 GMT -8
Correct--what other guys are making does directly influence spending. But we already had Richards under contract, so what Wheeler was signed for recently had nothing to do with us signing Richards last year. And...we are basically paying Richards up to $18 million to pitch one season for the Padres, as he only pitched 8.2 innings for the club last season. That's a bargain these days if he pitches in 2020 like his best years on the Angels. A very big "if".
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 7, 2019 9:11:47 GMT -8
Jordan Lyles just got a nearly identical contract. Jordan Lyles.
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Post by azman on Dec 7, 2019 10:23:01 GMT -8
Jordan Lyles just got a nearly identical contract. Jordan Lyles. 2 years $16 million! Wow. And the Padres didn't even want him a few years ago! Baseball needs a salary cap, this is ridiculous.
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Post by aardvark on Dec 7, 2019 12:47:58 GMT -8
Jordan Lyles just got a nearly identical contract. Jordan Lyles. Roughly the same contract as Richards got? Yes. One big difference--he will pitch the first year of the 2-year deal.
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 7, 2019 18:08:44 GMT -8
Jordan Lyles just got a nearly identical contract. Jordan Lyles. Roughly the same contract as Richards got? Yes. One big difference--he will pitch the first year of the 2-year deal. It doesn't matter, which you don't seem to understand. Dead money in a non-competitive year that teams are always engaging in. Richards, if it wasn't for his health, would command a much higher salary. His stuff is really, really good. The Twins did this with Pineda (twice) and did fine. A one year deal essentially for 15.5 million (when Cole Hamels just got 18) is fine. If Richards was going to pitch in year 1 at full health, he probably wasn't signing here.
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Post by aardvark on Dec 7, 2019 23:00:52 GMT -8
Roughly the same contract as Richards got? Yes. One big difference--he will pitch the first year of the 2-year deal. It doesn't matter, which you don't seem to understand. Dead money in a non-competitive year that teams are always engaging in. Richards, if it wasn't for his health, would command a much higher salary. His stuff is really, really good. The Twins did this with Pineda (twice) and did fine. A one year deal essentially for 15.5 million (when Cole Hamels just got 18) is fine. If Richards was going to pitch in year 1 at full health, he probably wasn't signing here. The Padres have had plenty of dead money since 2015, so what's another $7 million of dead money? Hopefully he does pitch well in 2020, but I don't see the Padres resigning him anyway.
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 8, 2019 16:15:30 GMT -8
It doesn't matter, which you don't seem to understand. Dead money in a non-competitive year that teams are always engaging in. Richards, if it wasn't for his health, would command a much higher salary. His stuff is really, really good. The Twins did this with Pineda (twice) and did fine. A one year deal essentially for 15.5 million (when Cole Hamels just got 18) is fine. If Richards was going to pitch in year 1 at full health, he probably wasn't signing here. The Padres have had plenty of dead money since 2015, so what's another $7 million of dead money? Hopefully he does pitch well in 2020, but I don't see the Padres resigning him anyway. Exactly. It's a calculated move where the onus is on year two. Richards pitching at all in '19 was unexpected. I would much rather have Richards for the same price than negative WAR Jordan Lyles. The market is overpaying mediocrity right now, in a major way.
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Post by aardvark on Dec 8, 2019 16:28:25 GMT -8
The Padres have had plenty of dead money since 2015, so what's another $7 million of dead money? Hopefully he does pitch well in 2020, but I don't see the Padres resigning him anyway. Exactly. It's a calculated move where the onus is on year two. Richards pitching at all in '19 was unexpected. I would much rather have Richards for the same price than negative WAR Jordan Lyles. The market is overpaying mediocrity right now, in a major way. I agree with you. I just can't stand to see teams pouring money down a hole, such as with Richards for last year. Allow me to ask you--do you think we overpaid for Pomeranz?
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 9, 2019 9:25:59 GMT -8
Exactly. It's a calculated move where the onus is on year two. Richards pitching at all in '19 was unexpected. I would much rather have Richards for the same price than negative WAR Jordan Lyles. The market is overpaying mediocrity right now, in a major way. I agree with you. I just can't stand to see teams pouring money down a hole, such as with Richards for last year. Allow me to ask you--do you think we overpaid for Pomeranz? You structure deals around what it will take to land a player. Especially one coming off Tommy John or a series of injuries. Paying a guy a one year deal to not pitch at a reasonable rate is fine. Regarding Pomeranz, no. Good/dominant relievers have recently got 8/9 million AAV in deals, which is exactly in line with what Pomeranz got. The fact they structured the deal to spread out his signing bonus over 4 years means in year 1 he only costs 4 million dollars against the payroll. I might not have gone to a 4th year, but someone was going to give Pomeranz 3/30 (or higher), so it's okay. He was a top 5 reliever in baseball last year from July 31st onward. Another key thing : He is a multi-inning reliever, which now causes a higher premium with the rule change. I think he is as good or better than Will Smith, who got more money.
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Post by aardvark on Dec 9, 2019 11:18:52 GMT -8
I agree with you. I just can't stand to see teams pouring money down a hole, such as with Richards for last year. Allow me to ask you--do you think we overpaid for Pomeranz? You structure deals around what it will take to land a player. Especially one coming off Tommy John or a series of injuries. Paying a guy a one year deal to not pitch at a reasonable rate is fine. Regarding Pomeranz, no. Good/dominant relievers have recently got 8/9 million AAV in deals, which is exactly in line with what Pomeranz got. The fact they structured the deal to spread out his signing bonus over 4 years means in year 1 he only costs 4 million dollars against the payroll. I might not have gone to a 4th year, but someone was going to give Pomeranz 3/30 (or higher), so it's okay. He was a top 5 reliever in baseball last year from July 31st onward. Another key thing : He is a multi-inning reliever, which now causes a higher premium with the rule change. I think he is as good or better than Will Smith, who got more money. Good point regarding the reliever rule change.
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 9, 2019 11:55:24 GMT -8
You structure deals around what it will take to land a player. Especially one coming off Tommy John or a series of injuries. Paying a guy a one year deal to not pitch at a reasonable rate is fine. Regarding Pomeranz, no. Good/dominant relievers have recently got 8/9 million AAV in deals, which is exactly in line with what Pomeranz got. The fact they structured the deal to spread out his signing bonus over 4 years means in year 1 he only costs 4 million dollars against the payroll. I might not have gone to a 4th year, but someone was going to give Pomeranz 3/30 (or higher), so it's okay. He was a top 5 reliever in baseball last year from July 31st onward. Another key thing : He is a multi-inning reliever, which now causes a higher premium with the rule change. I think he is as good or better than Will Smith, who got more money. Good point regarding the reliever rule change. Really think you will end up seeing multi-inning guys get closer type value deals because of it.
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Post by cvtower on Dec 11, 2019 17:45:07 GMT -8
A better gain for the Padres: Whit Merrifield or Starling Marte?
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Post by aztecmusician on Dec 23, 2019 23:02:01 GMT -8
It seems like the Padres have missed out of most of the high profile FA starting pitchers, now what? A trade?
Preller isn’t going into this year with basically the same staff as last season.....not with the “win or else” edict from ownership.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2019 7:45:19 GMT -8
It seems like the Padres have missed out of most of the high profile FA starting pitchers, now what? A trade? Preller isn’t going into this year with basically the same staff as last season.....not with the “win or else” edict from ownership. I would have liked to see SD add a starting pitcher by trade or free agency. There is still time to do so, in the bargain bin or by trade. If I am not mistaken, today it looks like Paddack, Richards, Davies, Lamet, and Lucchesi? Maybe Quantrill mixing in? Of course, you could see Gore sooner than you think. Saw the Indians added Cesar Hernandez at a modest 1 year, $6.5M deal. Would have liked to see him at 2B rather than Profar, but whatever. Hopefully Profar can hit some this year, so far he hasn't been much of a stick.
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 24, 2019 10:32:53 GMT -8
It seems like the Padres have missed out of most of the high profile FA starting pitchers, now what? A trade? Preller isn’t going into this year with basically the same staff as last season.....not with the “win or else” edict from ownership. I would have liked to see SD add a starting pitcher by trade or free agency. There is still time to do so, in the bargain bin or by trade. If I am not mistaken, today it looks like Paddack, Richards, Davies, Lamet, and Lucchesi? Maybe Quantrill mixing in? Of course, you could see Gore sooner than you think. Saw the Indians added Cesar Hernandez at a modest 1 year, $6.5M deal. Would have liked to see him at 2B rather than Profar, but whatever. Hopefully Profar can hit some this year, so far he hasn't been much of a stick. I think they view Gore as the potential frontline guy that he is projected to be. Seidler has already stated no heads are going to roll, so that is that. There is zero reason to pay an inflated premium on this starving free agent pitching market. There hasn't been a good contract yet. When guys like Keuchel are getting paid 18.5 million per year, that tells you all you need to know. Same goes for Bumgarner, who projects to be less valuable than Kyle Davies while making 17 million a season. Still think a trade is in the works at some point : They have kicked the tires on Betts, Lindor, Sale, Price and numerous others. But a deal takes two parties and payroll considerations, when they are already at a top 10 payroll now as is. Strengthening the bullpen as they have allows you to put less stress on your staff, shortening the game and enhancing your rotation's strength while masking their deficiencies (Joey Lucchesi for example, Lamet another). Team is much improved on paper in multiple facets with 3 top 25 relievers from the the second half of 2019, Pham, a healthy Tatis and a Machado that will have a full offseason.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2019 11:11:40 GMT -8
From 2014-2017, Keuchel was a man among boys and worth a massive deal.
But totally agree w/ you, he's 31 now and still relatively young but now he's a 3.750 ERA guy two years in a row and averaging about 7 K's per 9 with a decent but not spectacular 2.1 WAR.
At least they only had to commit four years to him. Contract only takes him to his age 36 season.
I'm bullish on Richards having a very fine season in San Diego, while not sure what to make of Lamet just yet.
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 24, 2019 11:23:15 GMT -8
From 2014-2017, Keuchel was a man among boys and worth a massive deal. But totally agree w/ you, he's 31 now and still relatively young but now he's a 3.750 ERA guy two years in a row and averaging about 7 K's per 9 with a decent but not spectacular 2.1 WAR. At least they only had to commit four years to him. Contract only takes him to his age 36 season. I'm bullish on Richards having a very fine season in San Diego, while not sure what to make of Lamet just yet. Lamet is a projection model superstar with his K/9 outlook. The question as always is health and his overall command. If he can get to 150 innings, he is probably a 3 win guy, which is a nice boost to the staff. Having the bullpen be so strong allows you to limit him to 5 or 6. People are still underestimating this bullpen - Yates was the #1 reliever in baseball from July onward and Pomeranz was #3. That doesn't even count guys like Muñoz and Strahm.
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Post by aztecmusician on Dec 24, 2019 14:22:27 GMT -8
Lamet and Richards have reconstructed arms, so the jury is still out on how many starts the Pads are going to get from them.
Usually when the Padres try to gamble on salvaging a broken down starter like Richards it never pans out. (Mark Pryor, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes) Lamet has some potential, this is an important season for him. Lucchesi is an interesting case. A new out pitch could be the difference for him, sometimes a 3rd year starter will have a career year based on a new wrinkle in their breaking stuff. Paddack, a top of the rotation guy, hopefully there is no sophomore slump. Gore, future ace however, he only has 4 starts above class A, probably needs some time with the Sod Poodles, Mid-June call up? Davies, he has some decent stuff. Quantrill, I was glad to see him debut last year, we shall see this year..
Overall this group, right now, has too many ”could be or what if” scenarios to lead the Padres to a plus .500 season. Preller needs to cash in a prospect(s) to get a 1, 2, 3 top of the rotation punch. Paddack, Lamet & ____________.
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Post by aztecryan on Dec 24, 2019 14:45:26 GMT -8
Lamet and Richards have reconstructed arms, so the jury is still out on how many starts the Pads are going to get from them. Usually when the Padres try to gamble on salvaging a broken down starter like Richards it never pans out. (Mark Pryor, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes) Lamet has some potential, this is an important season for him. Lucchesi is an interesting case. A new out pitch could be the difference for him, sometimes a 3rd year starter will have a career year based on a new wrinkle in their breaking stuff. Paddack, a top of the rotation guy, hopefully there is no sophomore slump. Gore, future ace however, he only has 4 starts above class A, probably needs some time with the Sod Poodles, Mid-June call up? Davies, he has some decent stuff. Quantrill, I was glad to see him debut last year, we shall see this year.. Overall this group, right now, has too many ”could be or what if” scenarios to lead the Padres to a plus .500 season. Preller needs to cash in a prospect(s) to get a 1, 2, 3 top of the rotation punch. Paddack, Lamet & ____________. Gore.
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