Padres MLB.com top 30 Prospects 2018

[AztecBill]

MLB.com will list the top 30 Padres 2019 Prospects on March 1. Below are the top 30 from last season:

Player	Pos	DOB	Age	Aquired	MLB Ranking	2018 Padres Rank
Frenando Tatis Jr	SS	1/2/1999	20.15	Trade CWS - James Shield	2	1
Mackenzie Gore	LHP	2/24/1999	20.00	2017 Draft 1st(3)	13	2
Francisco Mejjia	C	10/27/1995	23.33	Trade CLE - Brad Hand	26	3
Luis Urias	2B/SS	6/3/1997	21.73	2013 Foreign free Agent	27	4
Chris Paddack	RHP	1/8/1996	23.13	Trade Mia - Fernando Rodney	35	5
Adrian Morejon	LHP	2/27/1999	20.00	2016 Foreign free Agent	46	6
Michel Baez	RHP	1/21/1996	23.10	2016 Foreign free Agent	57	7
Logan Allen	LHP	5/23/1997	21.76	Trade BOS - Craig Kimbrell	76	8
Luis Patino	RHP	10/26/1999	19.34	2016 Foreign free Agent	83	9
Ryan Weathers	LHP	12/17/1999	19.19	2018 Draft 1st(7)	92	10
Cal Quantrill	RHP	2/10/1995	24.04	2016 Draft 1st(8)		11
Anderson Espinoza	RHP	3/9/1998	20.97	Trade BOS - Drew Pomeranz		12
Buddy Reed	OF	4/27/1995	23.83	2016 Draft 2nd(48)		13
Jacob Nix	RHP	1/9/1996	23.13	2015 Draft 3rd(86)		14
Josh Naylor	OF/1B	6/22/1997	21.68	2015 Draft 1st(12)		15
Tirso Ornelas	OF	3/11/2000	18.96	2016 Foreign free Agent		16
Esteury Ruiz	2B/3B	2/15/1999	20.03	Trade KC +2 - Cahill, Maurer, Buchter		17
Xavier Edwards	SS	8/9/1999	19.55	2018 Draft CBA(38)		18
Jeisson Rosario	OF	10/22/1999	19.35	2016 Foreign free Agent		19
Gabriel Arias	SS	2/27/2000	19.00	2016 Foreign free Agent		20
Reggie Lawson	RHP	8/2/1997	21.57	2016 Draft CBB(71)		21
Andres Munoz	RHP	1/16/1999	20.11	2015 Foreign free Agent		22
Hudson Potts	3B	10/28/1998	20.33	2016 Draft 1st(24)		23
Luis Campusano	C	9/29/1998	20.41	2017 Draft 2nd(39)		24
Austin Allen	C/1B	1/16/1994	25.11	2015 Draft 4th(117)		25
Dylan Coleman	RHP	9/16/1996	22.44	Draft 2018 4th(111)		26
Grant Little	OF	7/8/1997	21.64	Draft 2018 CBB(74)		27
Edward Olivares	OF	3/6/1996	22.98	Trade TOR - Yangervis Solarte		28
Pedro Avila	RHP	1/14/1997	22.12	Trade Wash - Derek Norris		29
Owen Miller	SS	11/15/1996	22.28	2018 Draft 3rd(84)		30

[AztecBill]

Age is as of today. I added how they were acquired because I can never remember all those trades. It is interesting that 20% of the top 30 players were from the 2016 foreign free agent signings. The Padres went in full hog during the last season that Foreign free agent money was unrestricted. After they release the 2019 list I will update with the 2019 rankings adding any new players. I included DOB so when I load back to Excel I can recalculate age.

[aardvark]

Feb 25, 2019 17:29:52 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

MLB.com will list the top 30 Padres 2019 Prospects on March 1. Below are the top 30 from last season:

Player	Pos	DOB	Age	Aquired	MLB Ranking	2018 Padres Rank
Frenando Tatis Jr	SS	1/2/1999	20.15	Trade CWS - James Shield	2	1
Mackenzie Gore	LHP	2/24/1999	20.00	2017 Draft 1st(3)	13	2
Francisco Mejjia	C	10/27/1995	23.33	Trade CLE - Brad Hand	26	3
Luis Urias	2B/SS	6/3/1997	21.73	2013 Foreign free Agent	27	4
Chris Paddack	RHP	1/8/1996	23.13	Trade Mia - Fernando Rodney	35	5
Adrian Morejon	LHP	2/27/1999	20.00	2016 Foreign free Agent	46	6
Michel Baez	RHP	1/21/1996	23.10	2016 Foreign free Agent	57	7
Logan Allen	LHP	5/23/1997	21.76	Trade BOS - Craig Kimbrell	76	8
Luis Patino	RHP	10/26/1999	19.34	2016 Foreign free Agent	83	9
Ryan Weathers	LHP	12/17/1999	19.19	2018 Draft 1st(7)	92	10
Cal Quantrill	RHP	2/10/1995	24.04	2016 Draft 1st(8)		11
Anderson Espinoza	RHP	3/9/1998	20.97	Trade BOS - Drew Pomeranz		12
Buddy Reed	OF	4/27/1995	23.83	2016 Draft 2nd(48)		13
Jacob Nix	RHP	1/9/1996	23.13	2015 Draft 3rd(86)		14
Josh Naylor	OF/1B	6/22/1997	21.68	2015 Draft 1st(12)		15
Tirso Ornelas	OF	3/11/2000	18.96	2016 Foreign free Agent		16
Esteury Ruiz	2B/3B	2/15/1999	20.03	Trade KC +2 - Cahill, Maurer, Buchter		17
Xavier Edwards	SS	8/9/1999	19.55	2018 Draft CBA(38)		18
Jeisson Rosario	OF	10/22/1999	19.35	2016 Foreign free Agent		19
Gabriel Arias	SS	2/27/2000	19.00	2016 Foreign free Agent		20
Reggie Lawson	RHP	8/2/1997	21.57	2016 Draft CBB(71)		21
Andres Munoz	RHP	1/16/1999	20.11	2015 Foreign free Agent		22
Hudson Potts	3B	10/28/1998	20.33	2016 Draft 1st(24)		23
Luis Campusano	C	9/29/1998	20.41	2017 Draft 2nd(39)		24
Austin Allen	C/1B	1/16/1994	25.11	2015 Draft 4th(117)		25
Dylan Coleman	RHP	9/16/1996	22.44	Draft 2018 4th(111)		26
Grant Little	OF	7/8/1997	21.64	Draft 2018 CBB(74)		27
Edward Olivares	OF	3/6/1996	22.98	Trade TOR - Yangervis Solarte		28
Pedro Avila	RHP	1/14/1997	22.12	Trade Wash - Derek Norris		29
Owen Miller	SS	11/15/1996	22.28	2018 Draft 3rd(84)		30

All prospects are suspects until they perform at the big league level. I am just hoping that with all the propects the Padres have, some of them will take the next step and be bonafide major league players for the Padres.

[aztecryan]

One of those players makes his spring debut today in Chris Paddack...and I'm stoked, even if it is only 2 innings. 12:05 on FSSD.

[AztecBill]

I would like to see Logan Allen pitch. He's not rated as highly as Paddack but is younger and had a better season at a higher level. Putting up incredible numbers has to count for something.

[aztecryan]

Logan didn't have a better season, Bill.

[ignoranus]

Who the heck is this unheralded Alderlin Rodriguez that smacked two homers the other day?

The next Franmil Reyes?

Why no info about the guy?

[aztecryan]

Rodriguez is a minor league castoff from the Orioles. Good story, but no.

[ignoranus]

TYVM for your swift response!

[AztecBill]

Feb 27, 2019 9:16:17 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

Logan didn't have a better season, Bill.

Logan Allen is two years younger he pitched in double-a and Triple-A. He was the Texas league pitcher of the year and in five games in Triple-A he had a era under 2. That is a better season no matter how you calculate it.

Logan Allen made his debut today in the third and fourth inning gave up no runs one hit one strikeout.

Logan Allen had a better era in five starts in AAA then paddack did in 7 starts in single A. While again being 2 years younger

[aztecryan]

Feb 28, 2019 17:40:46 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

Feb 27, 2019 9:16:17 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

Logan didn't have a better season, Bill.

Logan Allen is two years younger he pitched in double-a and Triple-A. He was the Texas league pitcher of the year and in five games in Triple-A he had a era under 2. That is a better season no matter how you calculate it.

Logan Allen made his debut today in the third and fourth inning gave up no runs one hit one strikeout.

Logan Allen had a better era in five starts in AAA then paddack did in 7 starts in single A. While again being 2 years younger

If you're going to compare their ages, you have to throw in that Paddack missed 22 months of development time or he likely is already a big leaguer. His ERA in El Paso was technically better. He also walked 13 batters in 27.2 innings, whereas Paddack walked 8 in 90 innings. Allen was worse by almost every conceivable statistic outside of ERA, which in 27 innings isn't really a great barometer. Paddack had a higher K/9, a lower BB/9, a massively lower FIP, less H/9 and so on. If you look deeper than face value, clearly Paddack was better.

[AztecBill]

Feb 28, 2019 18:20:45 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

Feb 28, 2019 17:40:46 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

Logan Allen is two years younger he pitched in double-a and Triple-A. He was the Texas league pitcher of the year and in five games in Triple-A he had a era under 2. That is a better season no matter how you calculate it.

Logan Allen made his debut today in the third and fourth inning gave up no runs one hit one strikeout.

Logan Allen had a better era in five starts in AAA then paddack did in 7 starts in single A. While again being 2 years younger

If you're going to compare their ages, you have to throw in that Paddack missed 22 months of development time or he likely is already a big leaguer. His ERA in El Paso was technically better. He also walked 13 batters in 27.2 innings, whereas Paddack walked 8 in 90 innings. Allen was worse by almost every conceivable statistic outside of ERA, which in 27 innings isn't really a great barometer. Paddack had a higher K/9, a lower BB/9, a massively lower FIP, less H/9 and so on. If you look deeper than face value, clearly Paddack was better.

I guess we can agree that they both had great years. I look at age, level and ERA - you look at those peripheral stats. I hope they both have great Padre careers.

I am not dismissing those peripheral stats. I do know how they correlate to future success.

[aztecryan]

FIP is a much better indicator of how well a pitcher is actually pitching because not all runs are created equally. For example, MacKenzie Gore had an inning last year with 3 straight passed balls. Balls that the catcher should have caught, but didn't. His ERA was in the mid 4's, but his FIP was a shade over 3. I tend to focus on the H/9, K/9 and swinging strike percentage. Missing bats at the minor league level tends to lead to future success. Paddack had a 41% strikeout rate in Lake Elsinore, which is borderline comical.

[AztecBill]

Now including the 2019 rankings. Luis Patino made the biggest jump from #83 to #48

Player	Pos	DOB	Age	Aquired	2018 MLB Ranking	2019 MLB Ranking	2018 Padres Rank	2019 Padres Rank
Frenando Tatis Jr	SS	1/2/1999	20.16	Trade CWS - James Shield	2	2	1	1
Mackenzie Gore	LHP	2/24/1999	20.02	2017 Draft 1st(3)	13	15	2	2
Luis Urias	2B/SS	6/3/1997	21.74	2013 Foreign free Agent	27	23	4	3
Francisco Mejjia	C	10/27/1995	23.35	Trade CLE - Brad Hand	26	26	3	4
Chris Paddack	RHP	1/8/1996	23.15	Trade Mia - Fernando Rodney	35	34	5	5
Luis Patino	RHP	10/26/1999	19.35	2016 Foreign free Agent	83	48	9	6
Adrian Morejon	LHP	2/27/1999	20.01	2016 Foreign free Agent	46	49	6	7
Michel Baez	RHP	1/21/1996	23.11	2016 Foreign free Agent	57	72	7	8
Logan Allen	LHP	5/23/1997	21.77	Trade BOS - Craig Kimbrell	76	74	8	9
Ryan Weathers	LHP	12/17/1999	19.21	2018 Draft 1st(7)	92	93	10	10
Josh Naylor	OF/1B	6/22/1997	21.69	2015 Draft 1st(12)			15	11
Cal Quantrill	RHP	2/10/1995	24.05	2016 Draft 1st(8)			11	12
Anderson Espinoza	RHP	3/9/1998	20.98	Trade BOS - Drew Pomeranz			12	13
Xavier Edwards	SS	8/9/1999	19.56	2018 Draft CBA(38)			18	14
Hudson Potts	3B	10/28/1998	20.34	2016 Draft 1st(24)			23	15
Tirso Ornelas	OF	3/11/2000	18.97	2016 Foreign free Agent			16	16
Buddy Reed	OF	4/27/1995	23.85	2016 Draft 2nd(48)			13	17
Luis Campusano	C	9/29/1998	20.42	2017 Draft 2nd(39)			24	18
Jacob Nix	RHP	1/9/1996	23.14	2015 Draft 3rd(86)			14	19
Austin Allen	C/1B	1/16/1994	25.12	2015 Draft 4th(117)			25	20
Tucupita Marcano	2B	9/16/1999	19.46	2016 Foreign free Agent			NA	21
Jeisson Rosario	OF	10/22/1999	19.36	2016 Foreign free Agent			19	22
Edward Olivares	OF	3/6/1996	22.99	Trade TOR - Yangervis Solarte			28	23
Andres Munoz	RHP	1/16/1999	20.12	2015 Foreign free Agent			22	24
Gabriel Arias	SS	2/27/2000	19.01	2016 Foreign free Agent			20	25
Owen Miller	SS	11/15/1996	22.29	2018 Draft 3rd(84)			30	26
Esteury Ruiz	2B/3B	2/15/1999	20.04	Trade KC +2 - Cahill, Maurer, Buchter			17	27
Osvaldo Hernandez	2B	5/15/1998	20.80	2017 Foreign free Agent			NA	28
Reggie Lawson	RHP	8/2/1997	21.58	2016 Draft CBB(71)			21	29
Blake Hunt	C	11/10/1998	20.31	2017 Draft CBB(69)			NA	30
Dylan Coleman	RHP	9/16/1996	22.46	Draft 2018 4th(111)			26	NA
Grant Little	OF	7/8/1997	21.65	Draft 2018 CBB(74)			27	NA
Pedro Avila	RHP	1/14/1997	22.13	Trade Wash - Derek Norris			29	NA

[AztecBill]

Mar 1, 2019 20:48:31 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

FIP is a much better indicator of how well a pitcher is actually pitching because not all runs are created equally. For example, MacKenzie Gore had an inning last year with 3 straight passed balls. Balls that the catcher should have caught, but didn't. His ERA was in the mid 4's, but his FIP was a shade over 3. I tend to focus on the H/9, K/9 and swinging strike percentage. Missing bats at the minor league level tends to lead to future success. Paddack had a 41% strikeout rate in Lake Elsinore, which is borderline comical.

Maybe you can help me understand this. Logan Allen had a 1.63 ERA in AAA and a 5.16 FIP. Is that saying that the fielders were so good in El Paso that they saved him a half a run per inning pitched? In 2016 he had an ERA of 7.71 and a FIP of 1.63. Does that mean the fielders were so bad that added 6 runs a game to his ERA without any of that bad fielding resulting in an error?

[aztecryan]

Mar 2, 2019 0:22:07 GMT -8 AztecBill said:

Mar 1, 2019 20:48:31 GMT -8 aztecryan said:

FIP is a much better indicator of how well a pitcher is actually pitching because not all runs are created equally. For example, MacKenzie Gore had an inning last year with 3 straight passed balls. Balls that the catcher should have caught, but didn't. His ERA was in the mid 4's, but his FIP was a shade over 3. I tend to focus on the H/9, K/9 and swinging strike percentage. Missing bats at the minor league level tends to lead to future success. Paddack had a 41% strikeout rate in Lake Elsinore, which is borderline comical.

Maybe you can help me understand this. Logan Allen had a 1.63 ERA in AAA and a 5.16 FIP. Is that saying that the fielders were so good in El Paso that they saved him a half a run per inning pitched? In 2016 he had an ERA of 7.71 and a FIP of 1.63. Does that mean the fielders were so bad that added 6 runs a game to his ERA without any of that bad fielding resulting in an error?

A lot of things go into FIP calculations, but a lot of it is BABIP data, strand rate for runners and stuff like that. Check out Patino's ERA/FIP splits. Legit stuff for a kid who just turned 19.

[aardvark]

Javy Guerra optioned to minor league camp. To me, it is not a surprise. I would also think that Perdomo will join him.

[aardvark]

And...Perdomo has joined Guerra in minor league camp.

[aardvark]

Gore currently pitching against the Mexico City Red Devils live from Mexico City. Padres are sharing the feed on Facebook.

[aztecryan]

Gore and Patiño have a chance to be the best lefty/righty pitching prospects in baseball at the end of this year. That doesn't come from me, but from professional scouting guys. Patiño threw yesterday against the Mariners and touched 97.