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Post by AztecBill on Feb 13, 2019 17:13:07 GMT -8
The site hoop-math.com/SanDiegoSt.2019.php shows (among other things) transition offense. Using the percentage of possessions that result in a shot within 10 seconds and the eFG% of those shots, I have developed a single number to represent the number of extra points over 100 points in 100 possessions. The higher the number below the better the team's transition offense. Below the stats I will show the formula I used. 2019 1.9 2018 1.3 2017 0.9 2016 1.2 2015 -0.1 2014 1.0 2013 0.9 2012 1.0 As you can see the Aztecs fast breaks this season have, by far, been better than any year in which Hoop Math has data. Last season was the best to that point. I think Dutcher stresses transition more than Fisher did. 100 times ((eFG%-50%) * percentage of transition possessions)) Overwhelmingly fast breaks come off defensive rebounds. Below are the numbers for that alone including the raw data. Year % Shots eFG% P>1 2019 19.3% 56.7% 1.29 2018 15.6% 57.9% 1.23 2017 13.7% 51.4% 0.19 2016 13.7% 50.4% 0.05 2015 13.4% 45.5% -0.60 2014 14.4% 48.5% -0.22 2013 16.2% 53.8% 0.62 2012 14.0% 50.7% 0.10 You can see the big jump in the Dutcher years. |
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 13, 2019 17:21:42 GMT -8
Year % Shots eFG% P>1
2019 5.4% 64.8% 0.80
2018 5.7% 47.4% -0.15
2017 6.7% 60.8% 0.72
2016 5.1% 68.3% 0.93
2015 7.9% 57.6% 0.60
2014 9.6% 64.2% 1.36
2013 7.2% 60.3% 0.74
2012 5.3% 57.0% 0.37
Above is data for steals. 2nd best eFG% but not as many chances (low steal rate or lack of fast break ability on steals)
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 13, 2019 17:28:36 GMT -8
MWC teams rebound fast breaks | SDSU | 19.30% | 56.70% | 1.29 | | Nevada | 15.20% | 57.80% | 1.19 | | AFA | 9.30% | 60.10% | 0.94 | | CSU | 17.50% | 55.20% | 0.91 | | USU | 16.50% | 52.50% | 0.41 | | FSU | 13.10% | 52.30% | 0.30 | | UNLV | 18.10% | 50.90% | 0.16 | | SJSU | 14.00% | 51.00% | 0.14 | | BSU | 17.60% | 48.30% | -0.30 | | Wyo | 11.20% | 47.20% | -0.31 | | New Mexico | 18.50% | 46.60% | -0.63 |
Aztecs #1 Aztecs have a higher percentage of shots within 10 seconds of a rebound and have the 3rd highest eFG% on those shots. AFA has a 60.1% eFG% but less than half the chances. Nevada has a slightly higher eFG% but fewer chances mitigates that advantage. |
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Post by legkick on Feb 13, 2019 17:36:04 GMT -8
Fire Dutcher?
jk, very interesting stats
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Post by AlwaysAnAztec on Feb 14, 2019 11:42:46 GMT -8
Thanks Bill.
A fast break after a defensive rebound is predicated on good passing. I always thought that Fisher's teams needed work there.
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Post by sdsuballer on Feb 14, 2019 12:42:40 GMT -8
Stats dont tell all the story. The shot clock made every team including Airforce to speed up play. With the reduction of 35 sec to 30 sec made a huge difference.. Also if the shot clock is under 20 sec they no longer give you the 30 sec.. Instead it resets to 20’seconds. So overall every team is obtaining more possesions.
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 15, 2019 6:52:47 GMT -8
Stats dont tell all the story. The shot clock made every team including Airforce to speed up play. With the reduction of 35 sec to 30 sec made a huge difference.. Also if the shot clock is under 20 sec they no longer give you the 30 sec.. Instead it resets to 20’seconds. So overall every team is obtaining more possesions. The first number is the percentage of overall shots that come within 10 seconds after a defensive rebound. That is not affected by the shot clock at all. The Aztecs have just improved generating fastbrakes off defensive rebounds. They are the best in the Mountain West. |
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Post by fisher1fan on Feb 15, 2019 8:14:21 GMT -8
The stat that I want to catch on, which I have rarely heard anyone use, is FOULS RECEIVED or FOULS TAKEN. I think it’s important to determine who takes fouls and how it increase that “skill” of drawing fouls.
Shaq was a master at it. I’d like our team to improve in this rarely discussed category.
Overall great work AztecBill
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Post by FULL_MONTY on Feb 15, 2019 8:18:02 GMT -8
Defense never takes vacations, would rather that they focus on the defensive end more.
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Post by RiffelBooks on Feb 15, 2019 8:27:44 GMT -8
The stat that I want to catch on, which I have rarely heard anyone use, is FOULS RECEIVED or FOULS TAKEN. I think it’s important to determine who takes fouls and how it increase that “skill” of drawing fouls. Shaq was a master at it. I’d like our team to improve in this rarely discussed category. Overall great work AztecBill I thought Fisher's goal of making more FTs than the other team takes made sense. Getting to the line shows that you're playing aggressive basketball. |
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Post by legkick on Feb 15, 2019 9:52:51 GMT -8
The first number is the percentage of overall shots that come within 10 seconds after a defensive rebound. That is not affected by the shot clock at all. The Aztecs have just improved generating fast breaks off defensive rebounds. They are the best in the Mountain West. I didn't understand his response, since you were using rate stats anyway. However, I'm not sure of the impact of the cutting of the shot clock from 35 to 30 seconds. It is possible that other coaches have reemphasized transition in relation to half court as well. Probably, too much work to see whether other teams have seen similar year-to-year improvement in their transition rates/effectiveness, with comparisons between 35 second clock and 30 second clock years. Regardless, great work. |
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