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Post by sdcoug on Jun 2, 2015 11:28:58 GMT -8
IMO this is a pretty fair & accurate review of the conference, although I'm sure there are some errors here & there (like most). But in reading the review it basically says what we'd expect to read, and at least gets the names right.
athlonsports.com/college-football/mountain-west-football-2015-predictions
They rank us #68 in the country, project us to go 6-2 in conference & win the West, and lose to BSU in title game to finish 8-5 prior to a bowl. Seems very realistic.
Only BSU (#25) & USU (#51) ranked above us.
Here's their "Final Analysis":
San Diego State has gone to five consecutive bowl games for the first time in program history and has been steady but not spectacular in four seasons under coach Rocky Long’s leadership. The seven victories in 2014 were the Aztecs’ fewest since 2009 (under Brady Hoke), and there is now an expectation of a winning season and bowl game appearance every year.
If Smith can avoid the injuries that hindered him at Kentucky and can provide the downfield passing attack San Diego State lacked last season, the Aztecs will be a solid threat to reach the Mountain West title game. The defense is strong enough for San Diego State to win the division crown, and there is enough overall talent for the Aztecs to set winning the conference championship as a legitimate goal. - See more at: athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/san-diego-state-aztecs-2015-preview-and-prediction#sthash.k3ypQimz.dpuf
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Post by aztecsiggy on Jun 2, 2015 12:29:06 GMT -8
IMO this is a pretty fair & accurate review of the conference, although I'm sure there are some errors here & there (like most). But in reading the review it basically says what we'd expect to read, and at least gets the names right.
athlonsports.com/college-football/mountain-west-football-2015-predictions
They rank us #68 in the country, project us to go 6-2 in conference & win the West, and lose to BSU in title game to finish 8-5 prior to a bowl. Seems very realistic.
Only BSU (#25) & USU (#51) ranked above us.
Here's their "Final Analysis":
San Diego State has gone to five consecutive bowl games for the first time in program history and has been steady but not spectacular in four seasons under coach Rocky Long’s leadership. The seven victories in 2014 were the Aztecs’ fewest since 2009 (under Brady Hoke), and there is now an expectation of a winning season and bowl game appearance every year.
If Smith can avoid the injuries that hindered him at Kentucky and can provide the downfield passing attack San Diego State lacked last season, the Aztecs will be a solid threat to reach the Mountain West title game. The defense is strong enough for San Diego State to win the division crown, and there is enough overall talent for the Aztecs to set winning the conference championship as a legitimate goal. - See more at: athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/san-diego-state-aztecs-2015-preview-and-prediction#sthash.k3ypQimz.dpuf
I concur and expect it.
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Post by HighNTight on Jun 2, 2015 12:46:44 GMT -8
So Al Borges is back in the MWC as the OC at SJSU ... interesting
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Post by sdsudevil on Jun 2, 2015 12:58:48 GMT -8
Sounds reasonable. One unexpected win would be nice though (PSU, Cal, MWCC, Bowl Game).
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Post by cvtower on Jun 2, 2015 13:20:17 GMT -8
Just wanted to add the links for SDSU's two big OOC opponents: California: athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/california-golden-bears-2015-preview-and-predictionCal's fast tempo no-huddle offense ranked 10th nationally in scoring last season, plus QB Jared Goff is on pace to break the school record in passing yards and TD passes by midseason. Dangerous receiving group and good running backs. On the other side of the ball, Cal's defense gave up 61 TDs last season (their final 10 opponents scored at least 31 points). Penn State: athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/penn-state-nittany-lions-2015-preview-and-predictionThe TD/INT ratio for the Penn State QB went from 20/10 in his freshman year to 12/15 as a sophomore. Also, last season he was sacked a Big-Ten worse 44 times. On the other side of the ball however, the Nittany Lions ranked 3rd nationally against the run. It may, but won't be impossible, to believe SDSU could beat both Cal and Penn State, but something HAS to give...the Aztecs will break through that Power Conference hump against at least one of these teams. On paper, it appears to be a high-scoring game vs Cal and a defensive battle vs Penn State.
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Post by sdcoug on Jun 2, 2015 14:30:26 GMT -8
Just wanted to add the links for SDSU's two big OOC opponents: California: athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/california-golden-bears-2015-preview-and-predictionCal's fast tempo no-huddle offense ranked 10th nationally in scoring last season, plus QB Jared Goff is on pace to break the school record in passing yards and TD passes by midseason. Dangerous receiving group and good running backs. On the other side of the ball, Cal's defense gave up 61 TDs last season (their final 10 opponents scored at least 31 points). Penn State: athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/penn-state-nittany-lions-2015-preview-and-predictionThe TD/INT ratio for the Penn State QB went from 20/10 in his freshman year to 12/15 as a sophomore. Also, last season he was sacked a Big-Ten worse 44 times. On the other side of the ball however, the Nittany Lions ranked 3rd nationally against the run. It may, but won't be impossible, to believe SDSU could beat both Cal and Penn State, but something HAS to give...the Aztecs will break through that Power Conference hump against at least one of these teams. On paper, it appears to be a high-scoring game vs Cal and a defensive battle vs Penn State. I would expect that to be much more likely when we play them at HOME rather than on the road (e.g. Cal next year - especially w/o Goff).
Playing against 2 NFL caliber QB's on the road isn't going to be easy. Possible, yes.... But we'll be double digit dogs in both IMO, which statistically means we'd have a 13-21% chance of winning (& that includes those who are dogs at home).
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Post by originalshow00 on Jun 2, 2015 14:36:58 GMT -8
Just wanted to add the links for SDSU's two big OOC opponents: California: athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/california-golden-bears-2015-preview-and-predictionCal's fast tempo no-huddle offense ranked 10th nationally in scoring last season, plus QB Jared Goff is on pace to break the school record in passing yards and TD passes by midseason. Dangerous receiving group and good running backs. On the other side of the ball, Cal's defense gave up 61 TDs last season (their final 10 opponents scored at least 31 points). Penn State: athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25/penn-state-nittany-lions-2015-preview-and-predictionThe TD/INT ratio for the Penn State QB went from 20/10 in his freshman year to 12/15 as a sophomore. Also, last season he was sacked a Big-Ten worse 44 times. On the other side of the ball however, the Nittany Lions ranked 3rd nationally against the run. It may, but won't be impossible, to believe SDSU could beat both Cal and Penn State, but something HAS to give...the Aztecs will break through that Power Conference hump against at least one of these teams. On paper, it appears to be a high-scoring game vs Cal and a defensive battle vs Penn State. I would expect that to be much more likely when we play them at HOME rather than on the road (e.g. Cal next year - especially w/o Goff).
Playing against 2 NFL caliber QB's on the road isn't going to be easy. Possible, yes.... But we'll be double digit dogs in both IMO, which statistically means we'd have a 13-21% chance of winning (& that includes those who are dogs at home).
Our defense will give them trouble in this game we are stacked.
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Post by sdcoug on Jun 2, 2015 14:43:04 GMT -8
I would expect that to be much more likely when we play them at HOME rather than on the road (e.g. Cal next year - especially w/o Goff).
Playing against 2 NFL caliber QB's on the road isn't going to be easy. Possible, yes.... But we'll be double digit dogs in both IMO, which statistically means we'd have a 13-21% chance of winning (& that includes those who are dogs at home).
Our defense will give them trouble in this game we are stacked. I think our D will be competitive but Goff was 25-41, 303 yards against a pretty "stacked" UCLA team as well, and this years version will have as many if not more weapons. He put up 30 points on USC's D. He threw for 360 & 2 TDs (zero INT's) against Oregon. All those teams were pretty good defensively as well.
Few teams will keep Cal under 30-35. If we win, we'll need to score 35+ IMO and 28+ to even stay within the game.
As much as I like our team Cal will be one of the most improved teams in the country IMO.
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Post by originalshow00 on Jun 2, 2015 14:46:18 GMT -8
Our defense will give them trouble in this game we are stacked. I think our D will be competitive but Goff was 25-41, 303 yards against a pretty "stacked" UCLA team as well, and this years version will have as many if not more weapons. He put up 30 points on USC's D. He threw for 360 & 2 TDs (zero INT's) against Oregon. All those teams were pretty good defensively as well.
Few teams will keep Cal under 30-35. If we win, we'll need to score 35+ IMO and 28+ to even stay within the game.
As much as I like our team Cal will be one of the most improved teams in the country IMO.
Ok good stats vs. Great programs.What type of offense do they run?50 percent running and passing or what?
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Post by Old School on Jun 2, 2015 14:47:46 GMT -8
Just bring it every week and we should be decent this season. The improved QB play will definitely help us. I'm eager to see Horton's "improved" offense. The power running game will remain a staple. Who will step up at WR (no more Ruffin) will determine how far we can stretch defenses.
Oldie Out
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Post by Old School on Jun 2, 2015 14:53:28 GMT -8
Al Borges could be a head coach in waiting at SJSU.
He has the chops and he's worked at top programs.
Oldie Out
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Post by HighNTight on Jun 2, 2015 15:02:35 GMT -8
I think our D will be competitive but Goff was 25-41, 303 yards against a pretty "stacked" UCLA team as well, and this years version will have as many if not more weapons. He put up 30 points on USC's D. He threw for 360 & 2 TDs (zero INT's) against Oregon. All those teams were pretty good defensively as well.
Few teams will keep Cal under 30-35. If we win, we'll need to score 35+ IMO and 28+ to even stay within the game.
As much as I like our team Cal will be one of the most improved teams in the country IMO.
Ok good stats vs. Great programs.What type of offense do they run?50 percent running and passing or what? I will guess that the best comparison for our 3-3-5 defense vs Cal's offense would be to look at the Cal-Arizona game ... the Wildcats had to overcome a 22 point deficit to win that game 49-45. Our offense will have to score big to win, we won't be able to depend on our D alone. That game between Zona and Cal was Sept. 20 of last year, so relatively early in the season too.
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Post by uncledougy on Jun 2, 2015 15:55:24 GMT -8
Good QB play can only go so far if he doesn't have guys that can catch.
WR is the wildcard this year. If we can get 2 guys to break out this season could be something special.
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Post by sdcoug on Jun 2, 2015 17:20:47 GMT -8
I think our D will be competitive but Goff was 25-41, 303 yards against a pretty "stacked" UCLA team as well, and this years version will have as many if not more weapons. He put up 30 points on USC's D. He threw for 360 & 2 TDs (zero INT's) against Oregon. All those teams were pretty good defensively as well.
Few teams will keep Cal under 30-35. If we win, we'll need to score 35+ IMO and 28+ to even stay within the game.
As much as I like our team Cal will be one of the most improved teams in the country IMO.
Ok good stats vs. Great programs.What type of offense do they run?50 percent running and passing or what? Sonny Dykes is a partial disciple of Leach (his dad coached before Leach at TT), so he runs a version of the Air Raid, but more focused on running than Leach. Closer to 60/40 when you're talking play calling, but out of the spread. Yardage wise they'll look to throw for 300+ & run for 100+.
They have a terrific RB (picked 2nd team all P12 by Athlon) & great WR's as well. Lots of them.
Their back-up QB will occasionally come in & he'll run the ball down by the goal line, giving them an extra flair within the 20 as well.
Defensively they SUCKED last year, but they had 3-4 guys out with injuries, if not more. They should be better on that side as well, but definitely Achilles heal.
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Post by originalshow00 on Jun 2, 2015 17:25:31 GMT -8
Ok good stats vs. Great programs.What type of offense do they run?50 percent running and passing or what? Sonny Dykes is a partial disciple of Leach (his dad coached before Leach at TT), so he runs a version of the Air Raid, but more focused on running than Leach. Closer to 60/40 when you're talking play calling, but out of the spread. Yardage wise they'll look to throw for 300+ & run for 100+.
They have a terrific RB (picked 2nd team all P12 by Athlon) & great WR's as well. Lots of them.
Their back-up QB will occasionally come in & he'll run the ball down by the goal line, giving them an extra flair within the 20 as well.
Defensively they SUCKED last year, but they had 3-4 guys out with injuries, if not more. They should be better on that side as well, but definitely Achilles heal.
Right on so like you said a high scoring game it sounds like.We will need some luck to get early turnovers to win that game.
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Post by sdcoug on Jun 2, 2015 17:38:56 GMT -8
Sonny Dykes is a partial disciple of Leach (his dad coached before Leach at TT), so he runs a version of the Air Raid, but more focused on running than Leach. Closer to 60/40 when you're talking play calling, but out of the spread. Yardage wise they'll look to throw for 300+ & run for 100+.
They have a terrific RB (picked 2nd team all P12 by Athlon) & great WR's as well. Lots of them.
Their back-up QB will occasionally come in & he'll run the ball down by the goal line, giving them an extra flair within the 20 as well.
Defensively they SUCKED last year, but they had 3-4 guys out with injuries, if not more. They should be better on that side as well, but definitely Achilles heal.
Right on so like you said a high scoring game it sounds like.We will need some luck to get early turnovers to win that game. Yep. MUST win the TO game and MUST get Pumphrey clear & eat clock to keep the ball away from Goff. If we can get some quick pressure on Goff that'd help as well.
If both teams play up to their capabilities it should be a very entertaining game. Cal games usually are. 59-56 2OT win over Colorado; 60-59 over WSU; 49-45 Hail Mary loss to Arizona. Some crazy stuff.
My hope is Sykes & his squad will have their eyes on going to Austin (Sykes is from Texas), and look past us a little, even if for a quarter or two.
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Post by AccessBowlTime on Jun 2, 2015 18:22:28 GMT -8
6-2 in the conference with this year's schedule followed by a loss to Boise in the Molehill West title game will = stagnancy
Not saying we won't do that, just that considering how great our defense should be, we really should finish 7-1 and host the MWC title game. Keep it off the blue psychedelic field in 20 degree weather and it will be a toss-up. Then . . . well, maybe, maybe, we could beat a Pac opponent in Lost Wages.
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Post by sdsudevil on Jun 2, 2015 18:41:50 GMT -8
6-2 in the conference with this year's schedule followed by a loss to Boise in the Molehill West title game will = stagnancy Not saying we won't do that, just that considering how great our defense should be, we really should finish 7-1 and host the MWC title game. Keep it off the blue psychedelic field in 20 degree weather and it will be a toss-up. Then . . . well, maybe, maybe, we could beat a Pac opponent in Lost Wages. If we found a way to only drop one in OOC, and that went as you said, that would be a likely NY bowl.
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Post by AccessBowlTime on Jun 3, 2015 8:14:56 GMT -8
For a MWC team, "a" NY bowl = THE access bowl as there's only one available. After winning the MWC title game last year, Boise's record was 11-2 including a victory over BYU yet probably wouldn't have gotten the access bowl berth had Marshall not lost a game. Since in my scenario, we would lose to both Penn State and Cal plus one MWC game, even assuming we won the MWC title game and even further assuming the champion of the other four G5 leagues had a loss, we would be just 10-3 without any OOC victory against a quality opponent. So I see no way that we would go anywhere other than to the LV Bowl.
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Post by zurac315 on Jun 3, 2015 9:33:16 GMT -8
Sounds reasonable. One unexpected win would be nice though (PSU, Cal, MWCC, Bowl Game). USD might be the unexpected win. Hey, we've lost similar games.
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