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Post by sdcoug on May 8, 2015 16:37:36 GMT -8
What’s in a number? This is a case of me back peddling a just bit on my original post, a little change of paradigm if you will as I sought to quantify my original point I actually ended up with data that supported an argument that you just can’t look at the rankings, they are fool’s gold for many programs. Obviously there is a direct correlation between highly ranked recruits and program success of the Dukes, Kentucky’s and Arizona’s of the world, and an overall correlation between programs ranked over 100 vs under 100, but certainly for a large group of programs the number a kid or a class is ranked isn’t that important according to this small sample. Obviously there are other considerations to a program’s success (i.e. transfers, coaching, the RIGHT kid for your program, players leaving etc.), but this is a look at the correlation between numeric rankings and success of a program. This again is a bit of a counter to my original post. I decided to take the numerical class ranking of 3 programs related to SDSU and see where their recruiting class ranked each of the last 5 years and it was interesting to say the least. SDSU, Gonzaga (because they are the type of program we see ourselves most similar to) and UNLV. I used 247Sports as they had a more complete ranking list than other sites and seemed to be consistent in the general ranking area as ESPN. SDSU (year and class rank) 2011 – 100+ 2012 – 37 2013 – 48 2014 – 18 2015 – 47 Gonzaga 2011 - 45 2012 – 100+ 2013 – 113 2014 – 40 2015 – 91 UNLV 2011 – 59 2012 – 5 2013 – 28 2014 – 5 2015 – 9 UNLV obviously had a CLEAR edge in class rankings but performed by far the worst on the court, Gonzaga had some fairly low rated classes yet ranked better on average than SDSU which had fairly consistent mid-level class rankings.Plus, it's never just about recruiting the recruiting class. Transfers are critical as well, especially in this day & age. Where would we have been w/o JJ, AQ, DP, etc., or X & Davis the year prior? Throw X' into our 2011 class & what happens to that ranking? Add Davis to 2013's class?
What would happen to Gonzaga's rankings had you included obtaining one of the best players in the P12 in Bryon Wesley to last year's class, and/or adding a Kyle Wiltjer, who was highly recruited (Kentucky)? I'd think last year's 40 goes to a top 10 with those 2.
Add in continuity (e.g. USC losing Wesley or UA/Kentucky's/Duke's losing multiple underclassmen annually), as well as injuries & it paints a better picture. UNLV had great classes, but losing Bennett early, or having guys leave for other reasons only magnified the injuries they had. You rarely win with a bench of only 7 players.
Having a top 20-25 class definitely sets an incredible foundation & allows you to overcome the occasional hiccups, but it's far from what defines a program overall. Just ask Iowa St - 9th & 10th ranked classes in their own conference the last 2 years, yet....transfer city & NCAA tourney.
If you want a program built solely on recruiting classes as key as the 'ranking' is not missing on any and getting them to stick for 3+ years. You have a top 20-25 class with 100% retention over a few years...now you're talking. Then put 2-3 classes back to back & you have an E8 program. Otherwise, you're probably going to need to fill.
Hell, Duke changed their philosophy & they're going after transfers this year to overcome turnover...
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Post by aztecgold on May 9, 2015 7:11:29 GMT -8
SDSU has built up it's team with transfers for the most part under Fisher. They are just now transitioning to going with mostly high school players which is not as easy and there is a learning curve with those type of players that you have to deal with. Fisher is used to dealing with these transfers who are very experienced since they have to sit out a year and learn the system. Guys right out of high school are going to make mistakes. Fisher may have to adjust his thinking because Pope probably should have played more this year.
Also, SDSU is not in a P5 conference so it lacks the money and prestige that they would get if they were in one. Fisher just may have to rely on at least some transfers because of the conference the Aztecs are in. I think to go far in the NCAA tournament you need a group of experienced 3 and 4 year type players with maybe one or two elite players that are more like one and done players. SDSU came closest to that mix with the group that included Kawhi Leonard.
BTW if you start comparing UCLA fans to SDSU fans then you know we are in trouble since they are incredibly spoiled and feel that the Sweet 16 is a failure. No 5 star recruits? Failure. Only make it to the Final Four? Failure.
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Post by standiego on May 9, 2015 7:43:18 GMT -8
Most of the higher ranked schools rely on signing the better HS recruits . Then maybe adding a transfer or maybe two , but need to recruit the higher level HS guys . Kentucky , Duke , Wisconsin ,... and others do it that way , does take a lot more work on recruiting . Aztecs need to work at getting to SW16 or better , to be considered a top level program , consistently . Gonzaga has for about 15 years , they finally signed a higher rated HS recruit for 2016 , Collins , then add players from around the country ,players from abroad , then by winning were able to add the quality transfer from Kentucky or even USC . They also really push the offense , so Aztecs need to work on not just being considered a team that plays D . Also can not rely on strictly recruiting CA for players. If Narain does Sign and play would help the recruiting . Need strong play on both ends . Gonzaga also involves their Centers/ PF in their offense . You need both a high quality C/PF and guard to reach the E8. Higher level player inside and outside.
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Post by standiego on May 26, 2015 16:29:52 GMT -8
Recruiting ; Positive note hope to get Narain signed as of now a Verbal, hope he can bring team mates ( Humphries or Cyrus 0 JH coming as PG , Zylan red shirted so could be a major assistance for 2015 , BJ how good is he ? Max possible shooter/ reserve for 2016
Down side not too many transfers actually came here for visits- Smith 2016 recruit Verbal then went on to the Ducks USF grad transfer chose Arizona over SDSU Aaron chose USC over the Aztecs Zabo left
Hope 2016 recruiting can land some quality recruits as we will need to reload . Believe we have 9 guys ( after Narain signs ) so hope coaches can land 2 or 3 quality guys . Cage , Bailey , Humphries , Kone , Moore or Cyrus ?.... and still leave at least 1 for transfer ?
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Post by Gundo on Jun 2, 2015 22:50:28 GMT -8
This in from tonight's SD UT recruiting update:
SDSU is considered a finalist for a pair of four-star players from the high school class of 2016, 6-7 Brendan Bailey and 6-10 Michael Cage Jr. Both are expected to announce decisions in late summer or early fall.
Nolan Narain and IU transfer Max Hoetzel have already been added to the roster. IMO, This class would rival Pope, Cheatham, Kell & Zabo.
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Post by standiego on Jun 2, 2015 23:08:43 GMT -8
So are you saying Narain has been added to the roster-signed ? or that he has made a Verbal/non binding for 2015 or 2016 ? Great to be in the running for some of the guys but there are a lot if AAU events and as recruits get better so do offers from the very high level teams . being a finalist is Nice but being number 2 is not good enough if you want to be an E8 or better . we lose a lot for 2015 and need to reload for 2016 .
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Post by Gundo on Jun 2, 2015 23:43:43 GMT -8
So are you saying Narain has been added to the roster-signed ? or that he has made a Verbal/non binding for 2015 or 2016 ? Great to be in the running for some of the guys but there are a lot if AAU events and as recruits get better so do offers from the very high level teams . being a finalist is Nice but being number 2 is not good enough if you want to be an E8 or better . we lose a lot for 2015 and need to reload for 2016 . I am saying the 2016 class on the table of both 6'10 4-star Narain and Cage, plus the 6'7 4-star wing Bailey and having Hoetzel eligible in 2016 would be as good as last years class. Plus we would add a G like Cyrus or Moore with the last open offer. I know a lot can happen between now and opening day for 2016/2017. I take nothing for granted after all the de-committs this year across schools including the player we lost to Oregon (who could always bounce back.)
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Post by sdcoug on Jun 3, 2015 7:39:32 GMT -8
So are you saying Narain has been added to the roster-signed ? or that he has made a Verbal/non binding for 2015 or 2016 ? Great to be in the running for some of the guys but there are a lot if AAU events and as recruits get better so do offers from the very high level teams . being a finalist is Nice but being number 2 is not good enough if you want to be an E8 or better . we lose a lot for 2015 and need to reload for 2016 . I am saying the 2016 class on the table of both 6'10 4-star Narain and Cage, plus the 6'7 4-star wing Bailey and having Hoetzel eligible in 2016 would be as good as last years class. Plus we would add a G like Cyrus or Moore with the last open offer. I know a lot can happen between now and opening day for 2016/2017. I take nothing for granted after all the de-committs this year across schools including the player we lost to Oregon (who could always bounce back.) Agree; we're in a good place right now, given how early it is in the recruiting calendar. If we keep Narain to go with Hoetzel, it's a solid start. Add 1 of those 3 (Cage, Bailey & Cyrus/Moore) & it's already a good class. Add 2 & it's a great class. All 3 - grand slam.
I do think we end up keeping at least 1 open scholarship through the early signing period.
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Post by tayloner on Jun 3, 2015 8:40:14 GMT -8
The Zeigler article also mentioned a transfer we're still pursuing, wonder who that is.
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Post by ignoranus on Jun 3, 2015 9:12:18 GMT -8
If Humphries could reclassify to 2015 and come in with Narain this fall it would be over the top for the future; regardless of whether they redshirt.
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Post by gigglyforshrigley on Jun 3, 2015 9:14:56 GMT -8
If Humphries could reclassify to 2015 and come in with Narain this fall it would be over the top for the future; regardless of whether they redshirt. We dont have enough scholarships this year for that though I dont think
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Post by Gundo on Jun 3, 2015 11:46:31 GMT -8
If Humphries could reclassify to 2015 and come in with Narain this fall it would be over the top for the future; regardless of whether they redshirt. We dont have enough scholarships this year for that though I dont think We have one open spot for 2015, if Narain chooses to come early the books are closed.
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