|
Post by HighNTight on Apr 25, 2015 13:17:05 GMT -8
Updated: Can the Chargers Afford Carson On Their Own?Let's assume for the moment that the Carson Stadium project is selected by the NFL at the end of 2015. I'll be the 1st one to say that the project (financially speaking) should be financially viable with both the Chargers and Raiders sharing the facility from the beginning. However, if I was the Chargers, I wouldn't feel too confident about Mark Davis as a potential partner. So, the real question behind Carson is whether or not the Chargers can afford Carson on their own. What do the Chargers take into Carson right now? The Spanos family is worth approximately $1.26 billion dollars, according to Forbes. The Chargers account for just under $1 billion of that value. And, even though, the Chargers have claimed that the project would be less expensive with only one team, I disagree. The stadium will still cost $1.7 billion, with or without two tenants. This is because the NFL will want any stadium in Los Angeles to be built with the ability to host two teams. [...] In Summary Based on all the information above, I think the Carson deal works if the costs are shared by two franchises. On the other hand, if the Chargers attempt to make this move on their own, there's not a ton of room for error. There's not enough money coming in to cover the total relocation costs for the Chargers unless they reach the high end of revenue projections, and the Spanos family doesn't have the financial backstop to make it work if things don't go perfectly, without potentially giving up a significant part of the franchise. If the Spanos family wanted to do that, they'd have made the Farmers' Field deal years ago. Until the Chargers produce their financing plan, and they have hard commitments for potential revenue, we can't accept their plan to move to Carson is a much of a slam-dunk as it might otherwise seem. www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2015/4/23/8468803/can-the-chargers-afford-carson-on-their-own
|
|
|
Post by aztecbolt on Apr 25, 2015 13:18:25 GMT -8
Chargers have been pretty clear, they want downtown....they want to be SD's premier spots franchise. IMO if the city doesn't find a way to give them DT they will leave. This is a financial decision, and as the clippers should've taught everyone here. It's more lucrative to be LAs after thought than SD's half aszed first choice. I think a charger stadium DT would be awesome, could you imagine the overhead view of the city? I actually want the bolts to stay, even though I also want what's best for SDSU. I just don't get why the convention center/hoteliers have such a hold on city hall. Can someone breakdown that relationship? From what Fabiani says, the Chargers prefer downtown only because they think it's more feasible and they'll take any location that works. Whether that's the truth or not, who knows. I prefer a downtown stadium as well but traffic could be a big issue, especially if there is a Chargers and a Padres game going on the same day. If the Chargers can get over the stadium being a part of the convention center expansion, I think they could get a downtown deal done and I think that's why the hoteliers are being against this but maybe someone else can break that down better. But according to the CSAG, downtown will be more costly and will have more hurdles than doing it in Mission Valley. I wouldn't exclude downtown yet if the Chargers are willing to wait. Perhaps that will be part of the negotiations.
|
|
|
Post by fredgarvinmp on Apr 25, 2015 13:21:35 GMT -8
Just 2 days ago, it was a "done deal" in many media outlets that Rivers was going to Tenn. Wake me up when we actually have something to report.
|
|
|
Post by HighNTight on Apr 25, 2015 13:36:26 GMT -8
Updated: Can the Chargers Afford Carson On Their Own?Let's assume for the moment that the Carson Stadium project is selected by the NFL at the end of 2015. I'll be the 1st one to say that the project (financially speaking) should be financially viable with both the Chargers and Raiders sharing the facility from the beginning. However, if I was the Chargers, I wouldn't feel too confident about Mark Davis as a potential partner. So, the real question behind Carson is whether or not the Chargers can afford Carson on their own. What do the Chargers take into Carson right now? The Spanos family is worth approximately $1.26 billion dollars, according to Forbes. The Chargers account for just under $1 billion of that value. And, even though, the Chargers have claimed that the project would be less expensive with only one team, I disagree. The stadium will still cost $1.7 billion, with or without two tenants. This is because the NFL will want any stadium in Los Angeles to be built with the ability to host two teams. [...] In Summary Based on all the information above, I think the Carson deal works if the costs are shared by two franchises. On the other hand, if the Chargers attempt to make this move on their own, there's not a ton of room for error. There's not enough money coming in to cover the total relocation costs for the Chargers unless they reach the high end of revenue projections, and the Spanos family doesn't have the financial backstop to make it work if things don't go perfectly, without potentially giving up a significant part of the franchise. If the Spanos family wanted to do that, they'd have made the Farmers' Field deal years ago. Until the Chargers produce their financing plan, and they have hard commitments for potential revenue, we can't accept their plan to move to Carson is a much of a slam-dunk as it might otherwise seem. www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2015/4/23/8468803/can-the-chargers-afford-carson-on-their-own "And if anything doesn't work out the way Spanos hopes, will he be on the hook, or will the Chargers find some way to stick Carson with the bill? By the way, this is a major reason why the Inglewood project is likely going to be chosen. Stan Kroenke can simply write a check if things don't work out perfectly in Inglewood.
Otherwise, there's only one asset that Spanos has which could possibly make up that kind of deficit... the franchise itself. I'd guess the Chargers are worth at least $3 billion if they move to Los Angeles. That means if the deal doesn't work out as well as they hope, Spanos is looking at selling anywhere from 3% - 25% of the franchise to cover relocation costs."
|
|
|
Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 25, 2015 14:05:25 GMT -8
I am not (surprise, surprise!) very sympathetic to the Spanos family. On the other hand, as the owners of a private business, it is their right to do the best they can for that business. As I posted once before, I just can't see how staying in San Diego makes sense for the Chargers. The possibility of getting a new 1.5 billion dollar stadium built here seems remote and getting more remote by the month. Yet, a new very nice, very fancy stadium does indeed seem to be de riguer for NFL teams these days. With those two concepts in mind (low probability of getting a new stadium here and the need to have a statisfactory venue) why shouldn't they move? It seems to me that moving the business to an area with far more fans and far more money would definitely be in the best interst of their franchise.
My guess, for what little it's worth, is that the Chargers have pretty much made up their minds that a new stadium is not going to be built here any time soon. If ever. If they have reached that conclusion, you can be sure the move will take place. The timing of that move will be interesting. I would imagine no sports franchise wants to have to play a lame duck season in its old city.
One more thing; the great expense of a modern NFL stadium is largely to blame for the inaction to date. The odds of getting a new 40,000 seat stadium built, one suitable for the Aztecs, would probably be much higher than the odds of building a 1.5 billion dollar NFL type venue.
Bottom line: San Diego can afford a new Aztec stadium (though that would not be a cinch, either), but realistically cannot afford a new one for the Chargers. There was a reason why the Chargers moved from LA to San Diego in 1961. Today, there is a very good reason why the Chargers would be better off in LA.
AzWm
|
|
|
Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 25, 2015 14:20:18 GMT -8
Chargers have been pretty clear, they want downtown....they want to be SD's premier spots franchise. IMO if the city doesn't find a way to give them DT they will leave. This is a financial decision, and as the clippers should've taught everyone here. It's more lucrative to be LAs after thought than SD's half aszed first choice. I think a charger stadium DT would be awesome, could you imagine the overhead view of the city? I actually want the bolts to stay, even though I also want what's best for SDSU. I just don't get why the convention center/hoteliers have such a hold on city hall. Can someone breakdown that relationship? From what Fabiani says, the Chargers prefer downtown only because they think it's more feasible and they'll take any location that works. Whether that's the truth or not, who knows. I prefer a downtown stadium as well but traffic could be a big issue, especially if there is a Chargers and a Padres game going on the same day. If the Chargers can get over the I prefer stadium being a part of the convention center expansion, I think they could get a downtown deal done and I think that's why the hoteliers are being against this but maybe someone else can break that down better. But according to the CSAG, downtown will be more costly and will have more hurdles than doing it in Mission Valley. I wouldn't exclude downtown yet if the Chargers are willing to wait. Perhaps that will be part of the negotiations. You prefer a downtown stadium for whom? For the Chargers? Maybe. For the Aztecs? No way! AzWm
|
|
|
Post by aztecbolt on Apr 25, 2015 15:09:50 GMT -8
From what Fabiani says, the Chargers prefer downtown only because they think it's more feasible and they'll take any location that works. Whether that's the truth or not, who knows. I prefer a downtown stadium as well but traffic could be a big issue, especially if there is a Chargers and a Padres game going on the same day. If the Chargers can get over the I prefer stadium being a part of the convention center expansion, I think they could get a downtown deal done and I think that's why the hoteliers are being against this but maybe someone else can break that down better. But according to the CSAG, downtown will be more costly and will have more hurdles than doing it in Mission Valley. I wouldn't exclude downtown yet if the Chargers are willing to wait. Perhaps that will be part of the negotiations. You prefer a downtown stadium for whom? For the Chargers? Maybe. For the Aztecs? No way! AzWm Yes, for the Chargers. Wouldn't that open the door for SDSU to expand into Mission Valley and perhaps get a small stadium there? I heard some rumors that SDSU may partner up with a MLS team for a smaller stadium.
|
|
|
Post by aztecbolt on Apr 25, 2015 15:12:13 GMT -8
I am not (surprise, surprise!) very sympathetic to the Spanos family. On the other hand, as the owners of a private business, it is their right to do the best they can for that business. As I posted once before, I just can't see how staying in San Diego makes sense for the Chargers. The possibility of getting a new 1.5 billion dollar stadium built here seems remote and getting more remote by the month. Yet, a new very nice, very fancy stadium does indeed seem to be de riguer for NFL teams these days. With those two concepts in mind (low probability of getting a new stadium here and the need to have a statisfactory venue) why shouldn't they move? It seems to me that moving the business to an area with far more fans and far more money would definitely be in the best interst of their franchise. My guess, for what little it's worth, is that the Chargers have pretty much made up their minds that a new stadium is not going to be built here any time soon. If ever. If they have reached that conclusion, you can be sure the move will take place. The timing of that move will be interesting. I would imagine no sports franchise wants to have to play a lame duck season in its old city. One more thing; the great expense of a modern NFL stadium is largely to blame for the inaction to date. The odds of getting a new 40,000 seat stadium built, one suitable for the Aztecs, would probably be much higher than the odds of building a 1.5 billion dollar NFL type venue. Bottom line: San Diego can afford a new Aztec stadium (though that would not be a cinch, either), but realistically cannot afford a new one for the Chargers. There was a reason why the Chargers moved from LA to San Diego in 1961. Today, there is a very good reason why the Chargers would be better off in LA. AzWm There's no way they're going to go ahead with a $1.5 billion stadium here. The numbers being thrown out are at high end is $1.5 billion and the low end is $700 million I believe so I imagine it will probably be around $900 million to $1 billion, maybe even lower. Jerryworld cost $1.2 I believe and there's no way they're going to build a monstrosity like that here.
|
|
|
Post by aztecfan1 on Apr 25, 2015 15:30:52 GMT -8
It’s Over: The Chargers Are Done With San Diego www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/opinion/its-over-the-chargers-are-done-with-san-diego/"Got your checklist? The Chargers will move to LA unless we give the team a plan to subsidize the stadium with at least $500 million in public money without the risk involved in waiting for a real estate development to come together and it has to be fully approved much sooner than ever imagined. A vote will have to be called and approved before teams start officially vying for Los Angeles. Or the mayor has to change course and renege on his pledge to let the people vote on a plan. Maybe send a letter to the NFL apologizing for taking so long with its billion dollars. That’s just to make the Chargers happy. Laugh out loud. Maybe the mayor could not satisfy the team at all and this was all a folly — an elegant trap he’s stumbled into. Or maybe the Chargers really would have gone along with a downtown plan. Though if time and risk are intolerable for Mission Valley, it’s hard to see how they would have been better downtown. Regardless, it’s done. Unless plans in LA fall apart, the Chargers are breaking up with the city. The mayor just might have to decide if he wants to dump them first." Excuse me for chuckling but, "it's over."? This is just another opinion on top of all the others. It's over when the Chargers say it officially, which is not now, but later this year. Nothing new here. More to the point, in this forum the only thing that should be discussed is what it means to SDSU. Does Hirshman have the clout and guts to capture this property for SDSU? It will take that effort to save SDSU athletics, not only football, but basketball as well. The lease runs out in 2018 I do believe. Let's leave Charger talk to those who care about the fraud that is professional football.
|
|
|
Post by zurac315 on Apr 25, 2015 17:00:03 GMT -8
Have we heard anything from SDSU about what SDSU will do if and when the Chargers "bolt" for LA? I'm not in the know like some of you folks!
|
|
|
Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 25, 2015 17:27:57 GMT -8
Have we heard anything from SDSU about what SDSU will do if and when the Chargers "bolt" for LA? I'm not in the know like some of you folks! At the risk (perhaps certainty) that I will be criticized for being repetitious, let me say that it's high time for SDSU to officially state its goals with respect to where it wants Aztec football to be played for the foreseeable future. I suspect they do not want to alienate anybody and have therefore kept a low profile. But the Aztecs are definitely a stakeholder in this process and their voice should be heard. Just staying in the background and waiting to see how everything shakes out does not strike me as a very good strategy. AzWm
|
|
|
Post by SDSU-Alum2003 on Apr 25, 2015 18:05:18 GMT -8
I am not (surprise, surprise!) very sympathetic to the Spanos family. On the other hand, as the owners of a private business, it is their right to do the best they can for that business. As I posted once before, I just can't see how staying in San Diego makes sense for the Chargers. The possibility of getting a new 1.5 billion dollar stadium built here seems remote and getting more remote by the month. Yet, a new very nice, very fancy stadium does indeed seem to be de riguer for NFL teams these days. With those two concepts in mind (low probability of getting a new stadium here and the need to have a statisfactory venue) why shouldn't they move? It seems to me that moving the business to an area with far more fans and far more money would definitely be in the best interst of their franchise. My guess, for what little it's worth, is that the Chargers have pretty much made up their minds that a new stadium is not going to be built here any time soon. If ever. If they have reached that conclusion, you can be sure the move will take place. The timing of that move will be interesting. I would imagine no sports franchise wants to have to play a lame duck season in its old city. One more thing; the great expense of a modern NFL stadium is largely to blame for the inaction to date. The odds of getting a new 40,000 seat stadium built, one suitable for the Aztecs, would probably be much higher than the odds of building a 1.5 billion dollar NFL type venue. Bottom line: San Diego can afford a new Aztec stadium (though that would not be a cinch, either), but realistically cannot afford a new one for the Chargers. There was a reason why the Chargers moved from LA to San Diego in 1961. Today, there is a very good reason why the Chargers would be better off in LA. AzWm There's no way they're going to go ahead with a $1.5 billion stadium here. The numbers being thrown out are at high end is $1.5 billion and the low end is $700 million I believe so I imagine it will probably be around $900 million to $1 billion, maybe even lower. Jerryworld cost $1.2 I believe and there's no way they're going to build a monstrosity like that here. Levi stadium was $1.31 billion. Probably a better measuring stick. It was originally projected to be $1.2 billion but costs went up during construction.
|
|
|
Post by SDSU-Alum2003 on Apr 25, 2015 18:53:43 GMT -8
Have we heard anything from SDSU about what SDSU will do if and when the Chargers "bolt" for LA? I'm not in the know like some of you folks! I will say this. No matter what happens SDSU football is not going away even if the Chargers do. This is a win-win situation for SDSU football. If the Chargers stay we get a new stadium (although not the best scenario for Aztec football). If the Chargers leave we will ultimately get a new stadium (best case scenario for SDSU). Obviously, I would prefer SDSU to build an Aztec specific college stadium along with a West Campus expansion. It is this scenario that is in the best long term interest of SDSU and the city of San Diego (unless there is a proposal that will allow for West Campus expansion @ the Q while also accomodating all the specific needs/wants of Aztec football in an NFL stadium - the Pitt/Steeler stadium experiment has been a failure in the opinion of the many students/fans/alumni). I have said this before. It would be foolish and premature for SDSU to appear to the public as anything more than a willing partner to work with all parties involved to find a long term stadium solution. SDSU is extremely well connected politically @ the city, county & state level and has far greater economic impact on San Diego County than the Chargers/NFL could possibly even dream of. Elliot Hirshman sums it up nicely. "From Los Angeles, we’re going to learn what everybody’s options are. We have a series of contingency plans,” he says, “What the options would be depends on how this game of musical chairs ends. We are considering multiple options, let’s just say that. They’re promising and haven’t been taken off the table.” "We can’t bring a lot of revenue to the ultimate solution,” Hirshman says. “What we can bring is strong support and 30,000 students, 6,000 faculty members and 300,000 alumni, 150,000 living in the immediate region. “It’s a tumultuous time for college football, with the Big Five conferences wanting to achieve the highest levels. This will be a challenge for us financially, but we will meet that challenge.” "The bad thing about talking to a university president is that you’re not the smartest person in the room. The good thing is that the smartest person in the room is talking to you. - N. Canepa" www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/mar/07/nick-canepa-sdsu-stadium/Only SDSU (and I suspect a handful of powerful & influential politicians, local leaders & businessmen) knows exactly what the contingency plans are and how they will be implemented. SDSU POLITICAL CONNECTIONS CA Senator Marty Block (Chairman of Senate Education Financing Subcommittee) - Former SDSU professor of 26 years CA Assembly Member Shirley Weber - Current SDSU Professor SD Mayor Kevin Faulconer - SDSU Alum SD County Supervisor Ron Roberts - SDSU Alum SD County Supervisor Greg Cox - SDSU Alum SD County Supervisor Dianne Jacob - SDSU Alum SD City Council Member David Alvarez - SDSU Alum Senator Marty Block has already proposed SDSU assume the property for a West Campus Expansion and new stadium when/if the Chargers leave. Watch this short video… www.kusi.com/story/28228281/senat...universityIn addition, John Moores (former MLB San Diego Padre owner and SDSU booster) and his development company, JMI, have been advocating that SDSU assume the property as well… "Also of interest to John Moores in particular is a non-economic issue that from our standpoint at JMI is that piece of property in Mission Valley is probably the only place in which San Diego State University can find any room to grow. And you look ahead 50 years from now; candidly it's probably more important that University's growth capacity is accommodated than which site is selected for the Chargers or what happens to a convention center when you look at the future of this community. And so we want to make sure the interest of San Diego State academically, educationally as well as their athletic program is accommodated." www.mighty1090.com/episode/dan-si...eve-peace/The Aztecs have a minimum of a FIVE year lease that is triggered when the Chargers depart. SDSU is closely connected to the city and county. The city/county is committed to working with SDSU when the Chargers depart. Skip to about the 4:45 mark for Jim Sterk's comments... m.youtube.com/watch?v=X6vDTRZHp9sSo, reading the hints and clues that have been made public by President Hirsman, Jim Sterk, Steve Peace/John Moores/JMI and Senator Marty Block I would conclude that SDSU is finalizing its contingency plans and is actively engaged on all fronts regarding SDSU's long term stadium options. When the Chargers leave that is when SDSU will go public with their plans.
|
|
|
Post by originalshow00 on Apr 25, 2015 19:02:23 GMT -8
Have we heard anything from SDSU about what SDSU will do if and when the Chargers "bolt" for LA? I'm not in the know like some of you folks! Hope the Aztecs take over Qualcomm staduim and sell most of that parking lot property.Parking garages can be placed on the site to accomodate parking and use less space and for tailgaters a section of the parking lot can be used first come first serve.The staduim can be altered fairly cheap to eliminate the upper deck to make it a better fan experience so people are not scattered all over the place.A black tarp can be used to cover all the seats up there and the stadium could be sick!
|
|
|
Post by HighNTight on Apr 25, 2015 19:16:01 GMT -8
Have we heard anything from SDSU about what SDSU will do if and when the Chargers "bolt" for LA? I'm not in the know like some of you folks! Hope the Aztecs take over Qualcomm staduim and sell most of that parking lot property.Parking garages can be placed on the site to accomodate parking and use less space and for tailgaters a section of the parking lot can be used first come first serve.The staduim can be altered fairly cheap to eliminate the upper deck to make it a better fan experience so people are not scattered all over the place.A black tarp can be used to cover all the seats up there and the stadium could be sick! If SDSU were to take over the Qualcomm site ... I'd like to see the Q rebuilt in Phases like they did Sun Devil Stadium, the City can retain ownership of the stadium and continue to lease the Water Dept property -- with a 20 acre river park south of the trolley line and a Main street like development of restaurants, hotels, retail and parking garages along the North side of the trolley line. The parking rings around the stadium can used as premium/reserved parking for tailgating. SDSU gets the other 80 or so acres in the NE & NW corners for campus expansion
|
|
|
Post by SDSU-Alum2003 on Apr 25, 2015 19:16:08 GMT -8
Have we heard anything from SDSU about what SDSU will do if and when the Chargers "bolt" for LA? I'm not in the know like some of you folks! Hope the Aztecs take over Qualcomm staduim and sell most of that parking lot property.Parking garages can be placed on the site to accomodate parking and use less space and for tailgaters a section of the parking lot can be used first come first serve.The staduim can be altered fairly cheap to eliminate the upper deck to make it a better fan experience so people are not scattered all over the place.A black tarp can be used to cover all the seats up there and the stadium could be sick! When the Chargers leave something like this is what SDSU will do with the property...
|
|
|
Post by aztecbolt on Apr 25, 2015 19:18:03 GMT -8
There's no way they're going to go ahead with a $1.5 billion stadium here. The numbers being thrown out are at high end is $1.5 billion and the low end is $700 million I believe so I imagine it will probably be around $900 million to $1 billion, maybe even lower. Jerryworld cost $1.2 I believe and there's no way they're going to build a monstrosity like that here. Levi stadium was $1.31 billion. Probably a better measuring stick. It was originally projected to be $1.2 billion but costs went up during construction. Are you aware of all the extra crap that's in Levi stadium? I know the Chargers want as many bells and whistles as they can get but the City needs to negotiate from a position of power and give them a nice BMW, not a Ferrari.
|
|
|
Post by zurac315 on Apr 25, 2015 19:20:17 GMT -8
Thanks for all the replies. Very informative. I'm hoping for the best.
|
|
|
Post by originalshow00 on Apr 25, 2015 19:27:59 GMT -8
Hope the Aztecs take over Qualcomm staduim and sell most of that parking lot property.Parking garages can be placed on the site to accomodate parking and use less space and for tailgaters a section of the parking lot can be used first come first serve.The staduim can be altered fairly cheap to eliminate the upper deck to make it a better fan experience so people are not scattered all over the place.A black tarp can be used to cover all the seats up there and the stadium could be sick! When the Chargers leave something like this is what SDSU will do with the property... Never seen this im sold
|
|
|
Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 25, 2015 20:27:03 GMT -8
When the Chargers leave something like this is what SDSU will do with the property... Never seen this im sold A very nicely done rendering, but this seems to embody a concept that does NOT include using the site as an extension of SDSU. Or do my elderly eyes fail me? I don't see anything on this drawing that says "SDSU classrooms/research/dormitories". AzWm
|
|