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Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 20, 2015 23:01:55 GMT -8
Maybe I'm dreaming, but I think we should, with decent recruiting and good coaching, dominate quit a few MWC schools in football most years. How about this. (Keep in mind that we will not play every school every year.)
A) Schools we will probably beat less than 50% of the time: Boise State. We have beaten them twice, so it can be done. But the Broncos are actually as good as or better than a lot of mid level P5 schools. In other words, quite a bit above our level right now.
B) Schools we should beat six out of every ten games, maybe more: Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State.
C) Schools that we should beat at least seven out of every ten games: Air Force, Nevada
D) Schools that we should beat nine out of every ten games: Hawaii, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming.
That may sound too ambitious, but if we can't beat the likes of UNLV, New Mexico, and San Jose State almost all the time, thoughts about making the Top-25 are a waste of time. It seems to me that SDSU should at the very least win two non-conference games and at least 6 conference games. In other words, eight wins should be our rock bottom minimum for the regular season. If we can win a third non-conference game and one more in conference, we end up the regular season with 10 wins. And that does not count the conference championship game and a bowl game. Again, maybe I am too optimistic, but I think SDSU should handle most MWC teams most of the time. Do that, and add a championship or a win over a P5 school, and the program should be on solid ground. But no more 7-6 finishes, please.
I await your views.
AzWm
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Post by sectionq on Apr 21, 2015 4:59:07 GMT -8
Generally agreed. I see the football teams evolution as being similar to the Brandon Heath teams: good but not top of the conference consistently or recognized nationally.
We need a breakthrough year akin to the 2010-11 sweet 16 season to elevate the teams status and recruiting. I think we are close and have been a QB shy in the past few seasons. Could this season be the year to break through? I don't know but I do predict more wins than last year.
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Post by sdsudevil on Apr 21, 2015 5:19:10 GMT -8
If we only have one game in which we were completely overrun with a limited QB like last year, I think we have the potential for that.
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Post by thepapacy on Apr 21, 2015 7:31:09 GMT -8
Generally agreed. I see the football teams evolution as being similar to the Brandon Heath teams: good but not top of the conference consistently or recognized nationally. We need a breakthrough year akin to the 2010-11 sweet 16 season to elevate the teams status and recruiting. I think we are close and have been a QB shy in the past few seasons. Could this season be the year to break through? I don't know but I do predict more wins than last year. I'm okay with hard fought losses to the tough teams on our schedule, but what is so soul-crushing and excitement-deflating is losing an early one to the South Alabamas of the world or being up 14 with 7 to play in Happy Valley and shting ourselves to an L. NOT starting another season 1-2 would also be a good start and keep people interested in coming to games. I'm not entirely sure a "break out" season can happen overnight in CFB like it can in NCAAB, but FFS if we want to be anywhere on the national landscape at all (i.e. people east of Fort Collins even knowing we have a football team) it's time to nut up or shut up. I'm too jaded to expect a MW Championship, Penn or Cal win, or even a MW West berth... but 3 of those things need to happen for this program to turn any kind of corner. And just sitting here typing - what would be a 2010-11 S16 type of season is if we can beat both Cal and Penn and sneak into the Top 25 early, without any letdowns soon after. THAT is what this program needs to gain some sliver of respect from the powers that be.
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Post by hoobs on Apr 21, 2015 7:38:19 GMT -8
And just sitting here typing - what would be a 2010-11 S16 type of season is if we can beat both Cal and Penn and sneak into the Top 25 early, without any letdowns soon after. THAT is what this program needs to gain some sliver of respect from the powers that be. I know I'm setting myself up for disappointment... but if the OL comes together (& the team overall avoids major, impactful injuries) I really think that scenario is very possible.
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Post by HighNTight on Apr 21, 2015 8:03:41 GMT -8
Generally agreed. I see the football teams evolution as being similar to the Brandon Heath teams: good but not top of the conference consistently or recognized nationally. We need a breakthrough year akin to the 2010-11 sweet 16 season to elevate the teams status and recruiting. I think we are close and have been a QB shy in the past few seasons. Could this season be the year to break through? I don't know but I do predict more wins than last year. I'm okay with hard fought losses to the tough teams on our schedule, but what is so soul-crushing and excitement-deflating is losing an early one to the South Alabamas of the world or being up 14 with 7 to play in Happy Valley and shting ourselves to an L. NOT starting another season 1-2 would also be a good start and keep people interested in coming to games. I'm not entirely sure a "break out" season can happen overnight in CFB like it can in NCAAB, but FFS if we want to be anywhere on the national landscape at all (i.e. people east of Fort Collins even knowing we have a football team) it's time to nut up or shut up. I'm too jaded to expect a MW Championship, Penn or Cal win, or even a MW West berth... but 3 of those things need to happen for this program to turn any kind of corner. And just sitting here typing - what would be a 2010-11 S16 type of season is if we can beat both Cal and Penn and sneak into the Top 25 early, without any letdowns soon after. THAT is what this program needs to gain some sliver of respect from the powers that be. Best as I can correlate: 8 wins in football = 20 wins in basketball 10 wins in football = 25 wins in basketball 12 wins in football = 30 wins in basketball Conference Championship = Conference Championship Reg. Bowl game in football = NCAA tourney appearance in basketball If the season unfolds such that we win one of the P5s on the schedule, but not both, but win the MW-West, MW-Championship and ... Lose the Las Vegas Bowl = NCAA Round of 32 ... Current Level of Expectation Win the Las Vegas Bowl = Sweet 16 ... Good Season New Years Bowl Game (not part of CFP) = Elite 8 ... Great Season, to win would blow minds CFP Semi's = Final 4 National Championship = National Championship
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Post by standiego on Apr 21, 2015 8:18:30 GMT -8
As even Rocky has said , so much depends on the play of the QB and if the OL can give the skill guys time to make plays. Need a high quality QB or two to have a good season . Average QB and average season . Priority every year is developing solid play by the QB's. to beat P5 teams and the better teams in the MW . We need a QB that can win a tight game .
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Post by obboy13 on Apr 21, 2015 8:22:35 GMT -8
Maybe I'm dreaming, but I think we should, with decent recruiting and good coaching, dominate quit a few MWC schools in football most years. How about this. (Keep in mind that we will not play ever school every year.)
A) Schools we will probably beat less than 50% of the time: Boise State. We have beaten them twice, so it can be done. But the Broncos are actually as good as or better than a lot of mid level P5 schools. In other words, quite a bit above our level right now.
B) Schools we should beat six out of every ten games, maybe more: Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State.
C) Schools that we should beat at least seven out of every ten games: Air Force, Nevada
D) Schools that we should beat nine out of every ten games: Hawaii, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming.
That may sound too ambitious, but if we can't beat the likes of UNLV, New Mexico, and San Jose State almost all the time, thoughts about making the Top-15 are a waste of time. It seems to me that SDSU should at the very least win two non-conference games and at least 6 conference games. In other words, eight wins should be our rock bottom minimum for the regular season. If we can win a third non-conference game and one more in conference, we end up the regular season with 10 wins. And that does not count the conference championship game and a bowl game. Again, maybe I am too optimistic, but I think SDSU should handle most MWC teams most of the time. Do that, and add a championship or a win over a P5 school, and the program should be on solid ground. But no more 7-6 finishes, please.
I await your views.
AzWm
It's always fun to dream AW, and I hope it plays out the way you suggest or better. However, don't forget it was only a few years ago that Hawaii played in the Sugar Bowl, Colin Kaepernick was playing for the Wolfpack, and some guy named Long was coaching up Brian Urlacher and winning a lot of games in Albuquerque. Not trying to be a buzzkiller, but things change. So go ahead and dream big, just not so far in the future.
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Post by standiego on Apr 21, 2015 8:32:52 GMT -8
MW QB's USU has a good one if healthy . Not sure about BSU's , Fresno's or CSU's . any information out there ?
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Post by sleepy on Apr 21, 2015 9:27:53 GMT -8
Pretty accurate on the "should" scale. I'd make an allowance for AFA, though. I think in years we play them early, they are an incredibly tough outfit. The later in the season it gets, the more beat to $#!+ they become. Bottom line: They are a very tough out most years.
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Post by standiego on Apr 21, 2015 10:57:00 GMT -8
Believe we play all 5 of the other West teams every year - just switch the home and away . Mountain teams play 3 teams every year, this year and next is it CSU , USU , Wyoming - again flip the home and away . ( Away games for Mountain can be bad place to travel to especially later in the season and altitude ). So BSU would be years 1, 2 , 5.6 out of an 8 year cycle - 2 times home 2 times road .
By the way the BSU and USU AD's are being looked at for an AD opening in the East .
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Post by sdcoug on Apr 21, 2015 16:00:07 GMT -8
Maybe I'm dreaming, but I think we should, with decent recruiting and good coaching, dominate quit a few MWC schools in football most years. How about this. (Keep in mind that we will not play ever school every year.)
A) Schools we will probably beat less than 50% of the time: Boise State. We have beaten them twice, so it can be done. But the Broncos are actually as good as or better than a lot of mid level P5 schools. In other words, quite a bit above our level right now.
B) Schools we should beat six out of every ten games, maybe more: Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State.
C) Schools that we should beat at least seven out of every ten games: Air Force, Nevada
D) Schools that we should beat nine out of every ten games: Hawaii, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming.
That may sound too ambitious, but if we can't beat the likes of UNLV, New Mexico, and San Jose State almost all the time, thoughts about making the Top-15 are a waste of time. It seems to me that SDSU should at the very least win two non-conference games and at least 6 conference games. In other words, eight wins should be our rock bottom minimum for the regular season. If we can win a third non-conference game and one more in conference, we end up the regular season with 10 wins. And that does not count the conference championship game and a bowl game. Again, maybe I am too optimistic, but I think SDSU should handle most MWC teams most of the time. Do that, and add a championship or a win over a P5 school, and the program should be on solid ground. But no more 7-6 finishes, please.
I await your views.
AzWm
Assuming health a key positions, and taking into account the importance of Road & Home this is a pretty decent expectation. But, as you point out, categories B & C you're still likely to lose just under 50%, so compound that with a road game & you have reality. Fresno last year, for instance, was very much impacted by the fact we had a significant injury & the fact it was played on the road. Played at home that may have fell into your 6 in 10, but instead it's 4 in 10.
But as defined by your scenarios 7-5 is still a very realistic possibility. You go 2-2, with 2 tough road P5 games, and happen to play 3 road games against categories A-C you are looking 7-5 in the eye.
That said, 8-4 is a nice ideal "rock bottom", and winning our division is definitely the target. But don't ignore factors which can in fact lead to 7-5 for many very good programs.
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Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 21, 2015 21:17:13 GMT -8
So far, most of the responses have discussed our chances for football this season. I was thinking more long term. From 1961 through 1979, in most years SDSU dominated or came very close to dominating whichever conference we were . Right now, Boise State is in that situation.
Is Boise a bigger city? No. Do the Broncos have a bigger stadium? No. Does BSU has academic credential superior to those of SDSU! Emphatically, no! Does BSU have greater financial resources? I'm not absolutely sure, but I think not. Does Boise (and here I refer to the region, not just the school) have more appealing attractions than does San Diego? I've never been to the Boise area, but I doubt that one can find more interesting things to do there than one can find here. So why has BSU done so much better than SDSU?
Boise State has had leadership vastly superior to the leadership that has stumbled from one SDSU error to the next. Unless the people who run this school look themselves in the mirror and declare that there is nothing, NOTHING, that will prevent them from making Aztec football relevant on a national level will we ever come close to what the Broncos have done. If those leaders see athletics in general and perhaps football in particular as a distraction that they would just as soon not have to deal with, what we have been getting is what we will continue to get.
My reason for starting this thread is the belief that, were our leadership equal to the task, there is no way that the Aztecs would not be able, on a routine basis, to beat the crap out of New Mexico, UNLV, San Jose State, Hawaii, and basically almost all the schools in the MWC. Boise may be a different story, since their brand is well established from the Pacific to the East Coast. They are, outside the Pac-12, the only FB school in the Western states that matters to fans in the Middle West, the South, and the Eastern Seaboard. But seriously challenging the Broncos is not out of the question. Being one of the two serious programs in the MWC would be pretty nice.
Put bluntly, I believe that SDSU has resources far superior to those of almost all the MWC schools. The potential is there, just waiting for the right kind of leadership to take charge of the program. The question is, will that leadership emerge? We've been waiting a long time for that to happen. How much longer can we wait, especially now that the P5 have done such a good time of stacking the deck in their favor?
I hear a noise. I think it's the ticking of a clock.
AzWm
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Post by sdsuballer on Apr 21, 2015 21:24:27 GMT -8
Every publication has us coming in 4th place in the entire conference behind Boise, Utah State, and Colorado State?
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Post by sdcoug on Apr 21, 2015 21:38:55 GMT -8
So far, most of the responses have discussed our chances for football this season. I was thinking more long term. From 1961 through 1979, in most years SDSU dominated or came very close to dominating whichever conference we were . Right now, Boise State is in that situation. Is Boise a bigger city? No. Do the Broncos have a bigger stadium? No. Does BSU has academic credential superior to those of SDSU! Emphatically, no! Does BSU have greater financial resources? I'm not absolutely sure, but I think not. Does Boise (and here I refer to the region, not just the school) have more appealing attractions than does San Diego? I've never been to the Boise area, but I doubt that one can find more interesting things to do there than one can find here. So why has BSU done so much better than SDSU? Boise State has had leadership vastly superior to the leadership that has stumbled from one SDSU error to the next. Unless the people who run this school look themselves in the mirror and declare that there is nothing, NOTHING, that will prevent them from making Aztec football relevant on a national level will we ever come close to what the Broncos have done. If those leaders see athletics in general and perhaps football in particular as a distraction that they would just as soon not have to deal with, what we have been getting is what we will continue to get. My reason for starting this thread is the belief that, were our leadership equal to the task, there is no way that the Aztecs would not be able, on a routine basis, to beat the crap out of New Mexico, UNLV, San Jose State, Hawaii, and basically almost all the schools in the MWC. Boise may be a different story, since their brand is well established from the Pacific to the East Coast. They are, outside the Pac-12, the only FB school in the Western states that matters to fans in the Middle West, the South, and the Eastern Seaboard. But seriously challenging the Broncos is not out of the question. Being one of the two serious programs in the MWC would be pretty nice. Put bluntly, I believe that SDSU has resources far superior to those of almost all the MWC schools. The potential is there, just waiting for the right kind of leadership to take charge of the program. The question is, will that leadership emerge? We've been waiting a long time for that to happen. How much longer can we wait, especially now that the P5 have done such a good time of stacking the deck in their favor? I hear a noise. I think it's the ticking of a clock. AzWm Boise has far more financial resources. 2 key ones being the stadium rights from Albertsons and the MWC TV contract, neither of which can we match under any different leadership. It's also the only game in town, and as a result, they have a larger group of donors. We can't even get 5k to join the Aztec club. I think many pepole have an inflated view of who SDSU is. SDSU has done remarkably well across all sports given our financial resources and the TV deal we're stuck with. Because we're the most desirable broadcast we get screwed. Show me any other conference where that is true. By your formula the largest city in each conference would excel. That's far from reality.
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Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 21, 2015 21:47:49 GMT -8
Every publication has us coming in 4th place in the entire conference behind Boise, Utah State, and Colorado State? I see we are back to the here and now rather than thinking about the long run. That's okay. I'm not sure what you mean by "Every publication." However, that prediction may be accurate; we'll find out in a few months. My basic reaction to that projection is two-fold. First, trailing BSU is understandable, given the Broncos' very long record of enormous success against quality opposition. But, second, trailing USU and CSU? Are you kidding me? There is no way SDSU should finish behind those schools. Not if we were performing up to our potential. It's been decades since we were doing that. Seven questionable or downright awful head coaching hires have squandered all the momentum build up by Coryell and Gilbert. It will be tough to regain that momentum at best, and virtually impossible if we continue to be lead (HC and administration) by people not up to the task. AzWm
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Post by AztecWilliam on Apr 21, 2015 21:58:11 GMT -8
So far, most of the responses have discussed our chances for football this season. I was thinking more long term. From 1961 through 1979, in most years SDSU dominated or came very close to dominating whichever conference we were . Right now, Boise State is in that situation. Is Boise a bigger city? No. Do the Broncos have a bigger stadium? No. Does BSU has academic credential superior to those of SDSU! Emphatically, no! Does BSU have greater financial resources? I'm not absolutely sure, but I think not. Does Boise (and here I refer to the region, not just the school) have more appealing attractions than does San Diego? I've never been to the Boise area, but I doubt that one can find more interesting things to do there than one can find here. So why has BSU done so much better than SDSU? Boise State has had leadership vastly superior to the leadership that has stumbled from one SDSU error to the next. Unless the people who run this school look themselves in the mirror and declare that there is nothing, NOTHING, that will prevent them from making Aztec football relevant on a national level will we ever come close to what the Broncos have done. If those leaders see athletics in general and perhaps football in particular as a distraction that they would just as soon not have to deal with, what we have been getting is what we will continue to get. My reason for starting this thread is the belief that, were our leadership equal to the task, there is no way that the Aztecs would not be able, on a routine basis, to beat the crap out of New Mexico, UNLV, San Jose State, Hawaii, and basically almost all the schools in the MWC. Boise may be a different story, since their brand is well established from the Pacific to the East Coast. They are, outside the Pac-12, the only FB school in the Western states that matters to fans in the Middle West, the South, and the Eastern Seaboard. But seriously challenging the Broncos is not out of the question. Being one of the two serious programs in the MWC would be pretty nice. Put bluntly, I believe that SDSU has resources far superior to those of almost all the MWC schools. The potential is there, just waiting for the right kind of leadership to take charge of the program. The question is, will that leadership emerge? We've been waiting a long time for that to happen. How much longer can we wait, especially now that the P5 have done such a good time of stacking the deck in their favor? I hear a noise. I think it's the ticking of a clock. AzWm Boise has far more financial resources. 2 key ones being the stadium rights from Albertsons and the MWC TV contract, neither of which can we match under any different leadership. It's also the only game in town, and as a result, they have a larger group of donors. We can't even get 5k to join the Aztec club. I think many pepole have an inflated view of who SDSU is. SDSU has done remarkably well across all sports given our financial resources and the TV deal we're stuck with. Because we're the most desirable broadcast we get screwed. Show me any other conference where that is true. By your formula the largest city in each conference would excel. That's far from reality. Your points are well-taken. I have already acknowledged that Boise's program is superior to ours. Honestly, I had forgotten the part about TV revenue. (I wonder when the rest of the MWC is going to get tired of the sweetheart deal Boise got for returning to the MWC. Come to think about it, was it really necessary to bend over for the Broncos? If the conference had told BSU to join as a regular member or get lost, what would Boise have done? I'm not aware of any backup plan they had for joining another conference. They could have gone independent, but I doubt they would have done so for all the well-known reasons. We should try to get the other members to join us in telling BSU that their sweetheart deal has run out.) AzWm
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Post by aztech on Apr 22, 2015 0:42:56 GMT -8
So far, most of the responses have discussed our chances for football this season. I was thinking more long term. From 1961 through 1979, in most years SDSU dominated or came very close to dominating whichever conference we were . Right now, Boise State is in that situation. Is Boise a bigger city? No. Do the Broncos have a bigger stadium? No. Does BSU has academic credential superior to those of SDSU! Emphatically, no! Does BSU have greater financial resources? I'm not absolutely sure, but I think not. Does Boise (and here I refer to the region, not just the school) have more appealing attractions than does San Diego? I've never been to the Boise area, but I doubt that one can find more interesting things to do there than one can find here. So why has BSU done so much better than SDSU? Boise State has had leadership vastly superior to the leadership that has stumbled from one SDSU error to the next. Unless the people who run this school look themselves in the mirror and declare that there is nothing, NOTHING, that will prevent them from making Aztec football relevant on a national level will we ever come close to what the Broncos have done. If those leaders see athletics in general and perhaps football in particular as a distraction that they would just as soon not have to deal with, what we have been getting is what we will continue to get. My reason for starting this thread is the belief that, were our leadership equal to the task, there is no way that the Aztecs would not be able, on a routine basis, to beat the crap out of New Mexico, UNLV, San Jose State, Hawaii, and basically almost all the schools in the MWC. Boise may be a different story, since their brand is well established from the Pacific to the East Coast. They are, outside the Pac-12, the only FB school in the Western states that matters to fans in the Middle West, the South, and the Eastern Seaboard. But seriously challenging the Broncos is not out of the question. Being one of the two serious programs in the MWC would be pretty nice. Put bluntly, I believe that SDSU has resources far superior to those of almost all the MWC schools. The potential is there, just waiting for the right kind of leadership to take charge of the program. The question is, will that leadership emerge? We've been waiting a long time for that to happen. How much longer can we wait, especially now that the P5 have done such a good time of stacking the deck in their favor? I hear a noise. I think it's the ticking of a clock. AzWm Boise has far more financial resources. 2 key ones being the stadium rights from Albertsons and the MWC TV contract, neither of which can we match under any different leadership. It's also the only game in town, and as a result, they have a larger group of donors. We can't even get 5k to join the Aztec club. I think many pepole have an inflated view of who SDSU is. SDSU has done remarkably well across all sports given our financial resources and the TV deal we're stuck with. Because we're the most desirable broadcast we get screwed. Show me any other conference where that is true.
By your formula the largest city in each conference would excel. That's far from reality. What have we really done on the field to justify being the most desirable broadcast?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2015 1:44:56 GMT -8
At the last Aztec Club Quarterly there were 30 non staff attendees! 30! What a frigging disgrace.
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Post by sdcoug on Apr 22, 2015 6:36:34 GMT -8
Boise has far more financial resources. 2 key ones being the stadium rights from Albertsons and the MWC TV contract, neither of which can we match under any different leadership. It's also the only game in town, and as a result, they have a larger group of donors. We can't even get 5k to join the Aztec club. I think many pepole have an inflated view of who SDSU is. SDSU has done remarkably well across all sports given our financial resources and the TV deal we're stuck with. Because we're the most desirable broadcast we get screwed. Show me any other conference where that is true.
By your formula the largest city in each conference would excel. That's far from reality. What have we really done on the field to justify being the most desirable broadcast? Besides being a consistent winner and perennial bowl team with 1 of the best RBs in the nation and a very good D? The only thing that matters. We put more eyeballs in front of the TV than any other team in our conference, which is exactly why CBSSN picks our games up regularly, not giving ESPN a chance. As a result, we get no bonus pool putting us towards if not at the bottom in media $'s every year.
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