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Post by thepapacy on Feb 26, 2015 15:06:45 GMT -8
For all y'all that can't get enough of this sht like me... On the eve of March, we get an early look at the most likely MW tourney brackets depending largely on the SDSU v. Boise game this Saturday. SDSU WIN: BLUE FIELD MARKS' WIN: |
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 26, 2015 15:22:52 GMT -8
Interesting that you've got Wyoming slotted ahead of Colorado State in both scenarios, and ahead of Boise State in the "Aztecs win" scenario...
Given who each team has left on their schedule, and the home/road mix in those games, I think a strong argument could be made that Boise is likely to be the #2 seed, even with a loss to us on Saturday, and that Colorado State could emerge ahead of Wyoming.
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Post by thepapacy on Feb 26, 2015 15:42:19 GMT -8
Interesting that you've got Wyoming slotted ahead of Colorado State in both scenarios, and ahead of Boise State in the "Aztecs win" scenario... Given who each team has left on their schedule, and the home/road mix in those games, I think a strong argument could be made that Boise is likely to be the #2 seed, even with a loss to us on Saturday, and that Colorado State could emerge ahead of Wyoming. Wyoming has got the tiebreaker over Colorado St by beating them twice, and with Nance back should win out? Possible they don't, but CSU could also lose at Utah State quite easily. Boise is behind on the tiebreaker to both Wyo and CSU if they lose to us, and has to play Fresno who already beat them. I think. But yep, it can still switch around and you could easily be right. edit:: I'll add that 5-10 will almost definitely stay 5-10, with Air Force and UNLV possibly flipping. |
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Post by Ambivalent_Fan on Feb 26, 2015 15:57:13 GMT -8
I know that SJSU is ineligible for post-season tourneys...but is the conference tourney considered a post-season tourney?
The only reason it matters is because the #6 seed would then need to play another game...possibly 4 games in 4 days (very remote chance...but still a chance)...
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Feb 26, 2015 15:57:27 GMT -8
Interesting that you've got Wyoming slotted ahead of Colorado State in both scenarios, and ahead of Boise State in the "Aztecs win" scenario... Given who each team has left on their schedule, and the home/road mix in those games, I think a strong argument could be made that Boise is likely to be the #2 seed, even with a loss to us on Saturday, and that Colorado State could emerge ahead of Wyoming. Wyoming has got the tiebreaker over Colorado St by beating them twice, and with Nance back should win out? Possible they don't, but CSU could also lose at Utah State quite easily. Boise is behind on the tiebreaker to both Wyo and CSU if they lose to us, and has to play Fresno who already beat them. I think. But yep, it can still switch around and you could easily be right. edit:: I'll add that 5-10 will almost definitely stay 5-10, with Air Force and UNLV possibly flipping. I was looking mainly at not only who they play, but where... road games are a sonovabitch in this conference. Boise plays at San Jose State (should be an easy win, even on the road) and at home vs Fresno. The win you cite against Fresno was on the road, which as we painfully found out, can make a difference. At home, they should easily take care of business. Colorado State finishes with two road games... at Nevada (which they should probably win, even on the road) and Utah State (who definitely play better at home) which, depending on their mindset going in, could be troublesome, but they should win. Wyoming has road games against both UNLV and New Mexico, and while both have been underwhelming this season, can't be discounted in their own house. They also play one more game than Colorado State (Utah State in Boise), which gives them three games, against arguably tougher teams, two on the road, and a loss to any of them would likely make the tiebreaker over CSU moot. Assuming an Aztec win Saturday, the battle for those 2-3-4 seeds figure to be an epic battle and could be a crapshoot. ETA: Another factor in the mix is that, while Nance is back, it's a weakened Nance who may take a while to get back into full game shape. |
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Post by azson on Feb 26, 2015 16:19:40 GMT -8
Interesting that you've got Wyoming slotted ahead of Colorado State in both scenarios, and ahead of Boise State in the "Aztecs win" scenario... Given who each team has left on their schedule, and the home/road mix in those games, I think a strong argument could be made that Boise is likely to be the #2 seed, even with a loss to us on Saturday, and that Colorado State could emerge ahead of Wyoming. Wyoming has got the tiebreaker over Colorado St by beating them twice, and with Nance back should win out? Possible they don't, but CSU could also lose at Utah State quite easily. Boise is behind on the tiebreaker to both Wyo and CSU if they lose to us, and has to play Fresno who already beat them. I think. But yep, it can still switch around and you could easily be right. edit:: I'll add that 5-10 will almost definitely stay 5-10, with Air Force and UNLV possibly flipping. If last night was any indication, I wouldn't assume any W's for WYO just because Nance is back. |
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Post by AztecBill on Feb 26, 2015 16:48:14 GMT -8
Interesting that you've got Wyoming slotted ahead of Colorado State in both scenarios, and ahead of Boise State in the "Aztecs win" scenario... Given who each team has left on their schedule, and the home/road mix in those games, I think a strong argument could be made that Boise is likely to be the #2 seed, even with a loss to us on Saturday, and that Colorado State could emerge ahead of Wyoming. Making the big assumption that the Aztecs win Saturday: Jeff Saragin's percentage chance of wins in other games for teams that would have 5 losses. Wyoming 33%, 61%, 37%. CSU 84%, 56% BSU 99%, 92% USU 57%, 39%, 44% Chances of winning out using those odds 07.4% Wyoming 47.0% CSU 91.1% BSU 09.8% USU That is good for the Aztecs. I want a Wyoming v Utah State game as the 4 v 5 match to win the right to face the Aztecs. Leave CSU and BSU to battle as the 2/3 seeds. CSU and BSU tiebreaker (most likely tie - as if it really matters. They will be playing each other in the semi-finals anyway.) 1. They split 1-1 2. They split with SDSU 1-1 3. Wyoming or Utah State would be next in tiebreaker or they could count together if tied. Wyoming in 4th - BSU Wins. Utah State in 4th - CSU Wins (To be tied CSU would have beat USU in the last game of the season. So Wyoming would have to lose two games) Wyo and Utah State tied - Both CSU and BSU are 1-2 against those teams, so goes to #4 below. 4. Fresno State - BSU wins. |
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Post by aztecking on Feb 26, 2015 18:40:47 GMT -8
If last night was any indication, Nance is playing at half-strength. I don't expect them to finish any better than 2-1. 1-2 is also a good possibility.
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Post by bearfoot on Feb 26, 2015 20:23:10 GMT -8
For all y'all that can't get enough of this sht like me... On the eve of March, we get an early look at the most likely MW tourney brackets depending largely on the SDSU v. Boise game this Saturday. SDSU WIN:BLUE FIELD MARKS' WIN:It is so odd to see Vegas and UNM at the bottom of the MW. Cripes, Vegas beat Arizona!  |
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Post by bearfoot on Feb 26, 2015 20:27:26 GMT -8
Wyoming has got the tiebreaker over Colorado St by beating them twice, and with Nance back should win out? Possible they don't, but CSU could also lose at Utah State quite easily. Boise is behind on the tiebreaker to both Wyo and CSU if they lose to us, and has to play Fresno who already beat them. I think. But yep, it can still switch around and you could easily be right. edit:: I'll add that 5-10 will almost definitely stay 5-10, with Air Force and UNLV possibly flipping. I was looking mainly at not only who they play, but where... road games are a sonovabitch in this conference. Boise plays at San Jose State (should be an easy win, even on the road) and at home vs Fresno. The win you cite against Fresno was on the road, which as we painfully found out, can make a difference. At home, they should easily take care of business. Colorado State finishes with two road games... at Nevada (which they should probably win, even on the road) and Utah State (who definitely play better at home) which, depending on their mindset going in, could be troublesome, but they should win. Wyoming has road games against both UNLV and New Mexico, and while both have been underwhelming this season, can't be discounted in their own house. They also play one more game than Colorado State (Utah State in Boise), which gives them three games, against arguably tougher teams, two on the road, and a loss to any of them would likely make the tiebreaker over CSU moot. Assuming an Aztec win Saturday, the battle for those 2-3-4 seeds figure to be an epic battle and could be a crapshoot. ETA: Another factor in the mix is that, while Nance is back, it's a weakened Nance who may take a while to get back into full game shape.Whatever Wyoming does, I do not see Larry Nance being able to play 3 games in 3 days. |
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