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Post by AztecWilliam on Jan 26, 2015 16:30:25 GMT -8
Talk of the Vegas MWC tournament got me to thinking about SDSU's depth and how it could be used to best advantage.
How many players can a team use in its regular rotation? Some say that Fish likes to use 8. Well, in a three-games-in-a-row tournament, and even more so in the six round NCAA tournament, maybe 8 are not enough.
As a review, here are the minutes played and points per game stats for the 11 regulars still active (Polee's stats listed separately.). . .
Jersey #..............,,,,,,.gp.gs..min.ave......pts per game 13 Shepard, Winston... 20-20...532 26.6..10.6 10 Quinn, Aqeel..,.,,.... 17-11...452 26.6..10.6 20 O'Brien, JJ....,,,,,.... 20-20...632 31.6... 8.7 12 Kell, Trey.......,,,,,.. 20-15...435 21.8... 7.0 03 Chol, Angelo.,,,...... 19-0....287 15.1... 5.3 40 Shrigley, Matt.,,,.... 14-5....284 20.3... 6.1 00 Spencer, Skylar...,. 20-20...457 22.9... 3.7 04 Allen, Dakarai.,,..... 20-0.....270 13.5...3.3 21 Pope, Malik.....,.,... 15-0.....169 11.3... 4.1 02 Zabo, Kevin....,..... 12-0.....161 13.4... 3.5 11 Williams, D'Erryl..,. 12-0.....100 8.3.... 1.6
(05 Polee II, Dwayne... 12-9...274 22.8.. 8.4)
Several things occur to me.
First: it would be nice to have Polee's 8.4 points per game. Second: only three players have started every game.
Third: and this is no surprise, there is no consistently effective scorer. When your best two scorers are barely in double figures, you know your team had better be good at the other end of the court.
Finally, I calculated the points per minute played for each member and here are the results.
Quinn:..... .400 Shepard:.. .397 Pope:...... .361 Chol........ .352 Kell......... .320 Shrigley... .303 O'Brien.... .274 Zabo....... .261 Allen....... .241 Williams.. .190 Spencer.. .162 Examining those data, several things seem important.
First: the team would get a huge boost if Spencer could score a bit more, such as 8 or 9 a game. Second: J.J., for all the good things he does for the team, doesn't produce much offense for his team-leading minutes per game played.
Third: Shepard, Quinn, O'Brien, Kell, and Spencer account for 63% of the total minutes played to date. If you add Shrigley, Allen, and Chol, those 8 men account for 84% of the Aztec minutes played. That basically amounts to an 8-man rotation. But 8 men can be whittled down awfully fast in a three day conference tournament by fatigue, injury, or foul trouble.
Question: is there some way that Zabo and Williams can be brought back into the mix in order to utilize our supposed depth more advantageously? So far, it seems as if Fish does not clear the bench even in obvious blowouts. Maybe those two guys should be given a bit more PT to bring them up to speed.
And for those posters who are lighting a fire under their flame buckets, yes. I realize that Steve Fisher knows just a bit more about the sport than I do
AzWm
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Post by K2Aztec73 on Jan 26, 2015 16:40:07 GMT -8
It would be interesting to see a couple other "slices" of that data... 1. Not including the 3 "cupcake" games 2. Conference games only
The first would show the mix in games where the team is more likely using a normal rotation and not just looking to get everyone some work. The second would also be "serious games", but would also factor in being more recent, with Fisher's rotation plan more solidified than it was in earlier games.
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Post by standiego on Jan 26, 2015 16:54:05 GMT -8
The Aztecs are a very athletic team , that is 11 deep and as you say , time to use them all . Get them running on offense and use that athleticism . Know their strengths and max them out . We had a reliable scorer in X , so the ball screen offense worked but not with this team . AQ is a great spark , but does not distribute the ball well , does not have good full court vision and only gets maybe 1 assist a game not what you want in a PG - do not need a shooter ,need a facilitator . Result the offense now goes through JJ , so he passes or takes it to the basket . Need him moving and getting open also. Ball needs to go into the key at least once then hit the open man , where ever . Quick passing and more movement without the ball . Make the other team chase us . They usually do that to us .
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Post by NCAztec82 on Jan 26, 2015 17:04:30 GMT -8
Great compilation. Hard to draw fast conclusions on how the numbers dictate where to make adjustments to the rotations. Also, any of the /per game stats, I think, do not reflect intangibles like season momentum, or the difference in confidence home vs. away. My take is that the two notable changes in the starting lineups, e.g. AQ for Polee and Shrigley for Kell, which came after conference play began, were positive changes, and I still think Polee is a greater sixth man than starter. I've read some posts indicating the same sentiments about Shep.
Addressing your points:
1. As I read the numbers, Polee's 8.4 ppg was replaced by AQ's 10.6 ppg.
2. Those same three starters for every game may not last. Pope (maybe Chol?) may prove something as the season matures. Spencer has really been ineffective lately.
3. Not so worried whether our rotation is 7, 8, or 9 men. I trust Fisher's handle on that, and frankly, he has had more to work with this season than the past. I think that is what accounts for our inconsistent play. We have another month, plus the MWC Tourney, to solidify the rotation, whatever it turns out to be (meaning whatever wins games). My take is it will be significantly different from what it was at the start of conference play, and closer to what we have going on now and since the UNM game.
4. At this stage of the season, I don't see any significantly greater role for Zabo and Williams. They are underclassmen whom, evidently, Coach may think need more development. Still, they may see limited action in a pinch, and have plenty of time left to contribute mightily.
Fire extinguishers ready for the flamers.
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Post by sdcoug on Jan 26, 2015 17:50:12 GMT -8
Talk of the Vegas MWC tournament got me to thinking about SDSU's depth and how it could be used to best advantage.
How many players can a team use in its regular rotation? Some say that Fish likes to use 8. Well, in a three-games-in-a-row tournament, and even more so in the six round NCAA tournament, maybe 8 are not enough.
As a review, here are the minutes played and points per game stats for the 11 regulars still active (Polee's stats listed separately.). . .
Jersey #..............,,,,,,.gp.gs..min.ave......pts per game 13 Shepard, Winston... 20-20...532 26.6..10.6 10 Quinn, Aqeel..,.,,.... 17-11...452 26.6..10.6 20 O'Brien, JJ....,,,,,.... 20-20...632 31.6... 8.7 12 Kell, Trey.......,,,,,.. 20-15...435 21.8... 7.0 03 Chol, Angelo.,,,...... 19-0....287 15.1... 5.3 40 Shrigley, Matt.,,,.... 14-5....284 20.3... 6.1 00 Spencer, Skylar...,. 20-20...457 22.9... 3.7 04 Allen, Dakarai.,,..... 20-0.....270 13.5...3.3 21 Pope, Malik.....,.,... 15-0.....169 11.3... 4.1 02 Zabo, Kevin....,..... 12-0.....161 13.4... 3.5 11 Williams, D'Erryl..,. 12-0.....100 8.3.... 1.6
(05 Polee II, Dwayne... 12-9...274 22.8.. 8.4)
Several things occur to me.
First: it would be nice to have Polee's 8.4 points per game. Second: only three players have started every game.
Third: and this is no surprise, there is no consistently effective scorer. When your best two scorers are barely in double figures, you know your team had better be good at the other end of the court.
Finally, I calculated the points per minute played for each member and here are the results.
Quinn:..... .400 Shepard:.. .397 Pope:...... .361 Chol........ .352 Kell......... .320 Shrigley... .303 O'Brien.... .274 Zabo....... .261 Allen....... .241 Williams.. .190 Spencer.. .162 Examining those data, several things seem important.
First: the team would get a huge boost if Spencer could score a bit more, such as 8 or 9 a game. Second: J.J., for all the good things he does for the team, doesn't produce much offense for his team-leading minutes per game played.
Third: Shepard, Quinn, O'Brien, Kell, and Spencer account for 63% of the total minutes played to date. If you add Shrigley, Allen, and Chol, those 8 men account for 84% of the Aztec minutes played. That basically amounts to an 8-man rotation. But 8 men can be whittled down awfully fast in a three day conference tournament by fatigue, injury, or foul trouble.
Question: is there some way that Zabo and Williams can be brought back into the mix in order to utilize our supposed depth more advantageously? So far, it seems as if Fish does not clear the bench even in obvious blowouts. Maybe those two guys should be given a bit more PT to bring them up to speed.
And for those posters who are lighting a fire under their flame buckets, yes. I realize that Steve Fisher knows just a bit more about the sport than I do
AzWm
Re: SS & JJ, you're making the assumption they have to score to be "effective", which is far from the truth. We don't need SS to score at all; he's there as a stopper on D'. If he gets points that's a bonus. The recent AF & CSU games are arguably our best offensive performances of the year, along with Pitt. In those 3 games SS scored a total of 5 points and don't think him not scoring played any role in us losing to CSU. You could say "it'd be great to have ANY player score 6-7 more a game", but it doesn't mean it's necessary.
Same with JJ. He was AWESOME against CSU, and has only had a few bad games all year. Where he delivers is how he directs the offense, his passing (2nd highest assist rate behind WS), his offensive rebounding (2nd highest on team behind Chol) and his D'. JJ scored 11 points in 38 minutes against UNLV (.289/minute) but I'd argue he hasn't played a better game all year long. That was a terrific game by him.
Yes, having a consistent "Scorer" would be nice, but I'd take 9 guys scoring 8+ points a game any time with our D', wouldn't you? Or 5 averaging 10, and a bench scoring 15+ a game? The most important stat isn't points/minutes per player, it's pts/possession as a team. In that department we've been VERY good in 3 of the last 4 games, and currently rank 5th in the entire conference. The only teams that have been significantly better than us offensively are CSU & BSU; we're basically on par with UNLV, Wyoming, USU & New Mex. If we do that all year & play D' like we do most of the time...
In a perfect world, Pope becomes the player he was Saturday & can play consistent D; Shepard, JJ, AQ & MS are consistently who they have been at times; Kell & Chol get us 10-12 points off the bench; and DA & SS bring it defensively & get the occasional points. We have that potential, but the world is rarely perfect. Personally, I'd hate to see us go beyond a 9-man rotation (or 8 1/2). I think it hurts you offensively when you play too many players, so as long as playing 9 keeps most fresh defensively while allowing guys time to get into the flow that's great.
I like where we're heading offensively. We're not there yet, but we have a couple weeks to work on it (knocking wood) prior to the next big stretch of games starting with BSU on the road. In the meantime, the starting line-up may change (I doubt it does) & the amount of minutes played may as well (I think it does).
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Post by aztech on Jan 26, 2015 18:19:49 GMT -8
I think we've gone full circle with the PG position. IMO Quinn is at his best coming off the bench. Fisher should have stuck with Kell even though he hit a wall during his learning curve. I realize he's a SG, but he has the best upside as a PG as of now. He's the one with better court vision, plus he dishes. Next year it'll probably change with Hemsley, but we need to stabilize the PG position today, not next year.
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