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Post by The Aztec Panther on Sept 7, 2014 7:45:53 GMT -8
After last night's repeat of a 4th quarter meltdown by the Aztecs where they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory yet again I started wondering...
Should we really try to get into a P5 conference, or should we focus on being a big fish in a small pond?
Is it really smart to keep scheduling these MidWest and East Coast games against P5 teams? Or would it be smarter to schedule competition that is easier to beat?
Would it be easier to build fan momentum by going 11-1 against mediocre competition, or going 8-4 against tougher competition? What makes more sense, given this program's last 34 years?
We can't count on getting another Marshall Faulk who can single handedly drive attendance. So if we can't get the kind of superstar players that bring crowds themselves, would going 11-1 against mediocre teams be more impressive to the locals than going 7-5 or 8-4 against tougher/name teams?
What should the long term plan/strategy be?
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Post by laaztec on Sept 7, 2014 7:46:52 GMT -8
Getting into the P5. We need the money. The G5 will go away in 10 years.
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Post by fisherville on Sept 7, 2014 7:47:58 GMT -8
Absolutely, the money alone makes it a no brainer. Recruiting will improve, we won't be scared by the Oregon states of the world and we will be able to afford better coaches.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Sept 7, 2014 7:53:02 GMT -8
But CAN we get into a P5 conference going 7-4 or 8-4 every year (and losing to tougher competition because of 4th quarter meltdowns)?
Is this all just an excercise in futility, or do you really, honestly believe that we can get in one of those conferences playing the way we play?
Because we know we CAN be the big fish in the small pond if that's what we want. We CAN get 10 and 11 win seasons every year if whe schedule right. That just won't get us in a P5 conference...
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Post by laaztec on Sept 7, 2014 7:58:25 GMT -8
If Rutgers and Maryland can get into the Big 10 SDSU has a chance to get into a P5 conference. It's all or nothing. Get into a P5 conference or fold up the tents.
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Post by matteosandiego on Sept 7, 2014 8:04:52 GMT -8
Sorry no disrespect but has to be one of the dumbest posts ive read.
You dont get top tier recruits by settling/scheduling to be the best of the little people. You get better by aiming for better. Which is what SDSU has done and it is working.
UNC is the best team we will play all season and we should have won. Asking for wether we should tuck our tail between the legs, take our ball and go play elsewhere is ridiculous man.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Sept 7, 2014 8:09:57 GMT -8
Sorry no disrespect but has to be one of the dumbest posts ive read. You dont get top tier recruits by settling/scheduling to be the best of the little people. You get better by aiming for better. Which is what SDSU has done and it is working. UNC is the best team we will play all season and we should have won. Asking for wether we should tuck our tail between the legs, take our ball and go play elsewhere is ridiculous man. We are nowhere near getting in a P5 conference right now, and if you think we are you are completely delusional (like many fans are - they see what they want to see). We AREN'T getting top tier recruits now. Our recruiting would take a very small hit if we stopped scheduling Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan, but we'd win a lot more games. There are pros and cons to both strategies. But the big question is can we get into a P5 conference playing the way we've been playing for the last 5 years? I don't think so. Utah screwed us. Their struggles (and outright failures) in the Pac 12 will only serve to add doubt to those running any P5 conference that would even consider us. If UTAH is a consistent failure in the Pac 12, how can WE do any better? Utah was a top 20 school several times over the last decade plus. We are not. Unless we beat a couple of these P5 teams we aren't getting in. |
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 7, 2014 8:12:24 GMT -8
Erik, your question is a critical one. Thankfully, I can answer it, though probably not to anyone's satisfaction. Here's the deal. We aren't going anywhere. We had a chance in the Big-East deal, but that didn't work out. (Yes, I know, the American Athletic Conference is now one of the great unwashed. AAC membership would still have been better than what we have, but that's now ancient history.)
If you read the article about college football haves and have nots in yesterday's fish wrap (the UT), you will remember what the author said about further expansion of the P5 conferences. Ain't happening. All this talk about more realignment is the rankest kind of wishful thinking. That author made clear that one of the main aims of the P5 consortium is to crush the G5 conferences. I, personally, think it's short-sighted, but plenty of people do stupid, short-sighted things every day. And some of them have PhDs, which would include those who run college athletic conferences.
As for being the big fish in the little pond, that is going to work only if we reliably win 10, 11, 12 games a year. The last time we did that I was a young man, and Erik was in grade school. Certainly, if we continue to schedule superior teams, especially away from home, we are not going to come close to 10 wins. Since 1976 and 1977 (both 10-1 seasons that went unrewarded by bowl invitations), the Aztecs have won 8 or more games in a single season exactly NINE times. Only twice in those years did the win total reach 9, in '10 and '12. Twice in 36 seasons. And in that time we have never really beaten a respected team. Kansas in '99 and Wazzou in '11 were pretty much doormats. With the new situation in which the rich schools will shower bennies on H.S. seniors, the personnel gap is only going to get wider.
We need to keep improving the best we can under the circumstances and hope for the best. One thing that would help is to give up games such as last night's and schedule non-conference games against teams who will give us home-and-home contracts. Tulsa, Florida Atlantic, and Northern Illinois (which is scheduled) may not set the hearts of fans on fire, but be will have a good chance to win those games. We need to be the best we can in order to grab the one brass ring that P5 conferences have deigned to extend to the proletariat; that would be the chance to play in one of their big bowl games not part of the playoffs. Actually, if we could get in one of those, that would probably represent our greatest success since Coryell/Gilbert.
We have hoped for more, but at some point reality has to come into the picture.
AzWm
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Sept 7, 2014 8:19:05 GMT -8
The thing is, in the 70's we went 10-1 and 11-0 playing mediocre out of conference competition. We'd typically schedule one fairly tough team, and the rest would be mediocre competition when it came to our out of conference schedule. It worked. We dominated the teams we were supposed to dominate, and every now and then we'd beat a supposedly superior team.
Would that strategy work today? The wins would come, but would the fans? (It's not 1970 anymore, and people have a lot more to do around here than they did back then.)
I know this, doing what we've been doing hasn't been working, and it hasn't gotten us a P5 invite...
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 7, 2014 9:26:05 GMT -8
The thing is, in the 70's we went 10-1 and 11-0 playing mediocre out of conference competition. We'd typically schedule one fairly tough team, and the rest would be mediocre competition when it came to our out of conference schedule. It worked. We dominated the teams we were supposed to dominate, and every now and then we'd beat a supposedly superior team. Would that strategy work today? The wins would come, but would the fans? (It's not 1970 anymore, and people have a lot more to do around here than they did back then.) I know this, doing what we've been doing hasn't been working, and it hasn't gotten us a P5 invite... It's true that we beat a lot of mediocre to bad teams in the '70s, such as Long Beach, Santa Barbara, and Tampa (all of which, by the way, no longer have football programs). But we also played, and sometimes beat, schools such as Iowa State, Brigham Young (beat them 31-11 in '70), Oregon State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Miami of Florida, and Florida State. As a matter of fact, SDSU beat ALL the preceding schools at least once during the '70s!!!!!!!! Just to complete the picture, here are our W/L records the decade of the '70s. . . 1970: 9-2 1971: 6-5 (largely due to enrollment rules that year that hurt recruiting, as I recall) 1972: 10-1 1973: 9-1 1974: 8-2-1 1975: 8-3 1976: 10-1 1977: 10-1 1978: 4-7 1079: 8-3 (Bad loss to BYU, but wins over Arizona, Wisconsin, and Miami of FLA) Moving up to the more competitive WAC (first year '78), running into the meteoric rise of BYU, and suffering from the senseless firing of Claude Gilbert at the end of the 1980 season, signaled the end of our own rise to national prominence. We have never fully recovered from those negative hits to our program. And now the situation with college football is more and more looking like collegiate athletics version of apartheid. At least in the 70s there was not a concerted effort on the part of the wealthier conferences to absolutely screw the less successful ones. In those days (up to about the beginning of this decade) a poorly regarded school could rise to glory. We saw the rise of Utah, TCU, and Boise State. The first two of those parlayed their sudden success into P5 membership. Apparently, Boise State has run into the same wall that we hit about 1980. I doubt very much that in the future any G5 schools will get a chance to duplicate TCU's and Utah's success. Such success is not in the interest of the G5. In addition, the national media appear to be only too happy to disregard any success that a G5 school might enjoy. Yes, you are correct. My view on the subject is decidedly pessimistic. AzWm |
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Post by Den60 on Sept 7, 2014 9:27:00 GMT -8
Sorry no disrespect but has to be one of the dumbest posts ive read. You dont get top tier recruits by settling/scheduling to be the best of the little people. You get better by aiming for better. Which is what SDSU has done and it is working. UNC is the best team we will play all season and we should have won. Asking for wether we should tuck our tail between the legs, take our ball and go play elsewhere is ridiculous man. We are nowhere near getting in a P5 conference right now, and if you think we are you are completely delusional (like many fans are - they see what they want to see). We AREN'T getting top tier recruits now. Our recruiting would take a very small hit if we stopped scheduling Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan, but we'd win a lot more games. There are pros and cons to both strategies. But the big question is can we get into a P5 conference playing the way we've been playing for the last 5 years? I don't think so. Utah screwed us. Their struggles (and outright failures) in the Pac 12 will only serve to add doubt to those running any P5 conference that would even consider us. If UTAH is a consistent failure in the Pac 12, how can WE do any better? Utah was a top 20 school several times over the last decade plus. We are not. Unless we beat a couple of these P5 teams we aren't getting in. The bigger problem is San Diego's reputation of not supporting a losing program. If we were to get into a P5 conference we would struggle playing high quality opponents week in and week out. Yeah, we might get better recruits but the best recruits are still going to go to the more derived programs. It wouldn't matter if we had a 45K Aztec only stadium, 15K butts in the seats would still look pathetic and TV viewership would suffer. I think that is a major concern when P5 conferences consider SDSU. |
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Post by Dave L on Sept 7, 2014 9:35:23 GMT -8
Honestly can't remember a dumber thread on here. Won't be wasting another second reading or responding to it.  |
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Post by phantom on Sept 7, 2014 10:31:05 GMT -8
TV money. That's it.
That's the only reason/way anyone has recently gotten into the P5 and the only reason/way we will ever have a chance at getting in.
It's not a stadium, game attendance, and even winning alone. Again, even winning ALONE isn't going to do it.
13-0 over a bunch of mediocre teams and MWC championship means nothing if no cares to tune in except for Aztecmesa and their distant cousins.
We have to become a BRAND that people want to watch. A LOT of people. In SD, in CA, and more importantly Nation wide. Like Boise became a few years ago but even to a higher degree.
If we do not provide a TV viewing generated revenue to a P5 conference, they won't give a damn about us.
P5 only cares about TV revenue and whether or not you can generate enough that is worth them dividing their pie an additional slice.
Now how to become that brand, that team that everyone wants to watch, we'll that's the trick isn't it?
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 7, 2014 11:19:13 GMT -8
TV money. That's it. That's the only reason/way anyone has recently gotten into the P5 and the only reason/way we will ever have a chance at getting in. It's not a stadium, game attendance, and even winning alone. Again, even winning ALONE isn't going to do it. 13-0 over a bunch of mediocre teams and MWC championship means nothing if no cares to tune in except for Aztecmesa and their distant cousins. We have to become a BRAND that people want to watch. A LOT of people. In SD, in CA, and more importantly Nation wide. Like Boise became a few years ago but even to a higher degree. If we do not provide a TV viewing generated revenue to a P5 conference, they won't give a damn about us. P5 only cares about TV revenue and whether or not you can generate enough that is worth them dividing their pie an additional slice. Now how to become that brand, that team that everyone wants to watch, we'll that's the trick isn't it? The only possible way, as I see it, that we will boost attendance to the 35,000 or more every week is to win practically every game we play. And some of those wins are going to have to be against schools that matter. Nevada does not matter. No disrespect to the Wolfpack, but nobody much outside of Nevada is going to care if we beat them. Same for wins over Colorado State, San Jose State, Wyoming, etc., etc. A win over Boise State counts for something, but less than a couple of years ago. If the Broncos keep stumbling, a win over them will count for little. And a loss to them, or to any of the other weak sisters with whom we associate, will just make Easterners, who apparently think we play in the Big West, believe that there is not much difference between SDSU and Idaho. Or New Mexico State. Yes, winning will do it, but we're talking about winning almost every game, and over an extended number of seasons. Anybody want to wager on the odds of that happening? AzWm |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2014 11:34:17 GMT -8
Sorry no disrespect but has to be one of the dumbest posts ive read. You dont get top tier recruits by settling/scheduling to be the best of the little people. You get better by aiming for better. Which is what SDSU has done and it is working. UNC is the best team we will play all season and we should have won. Asking for wether we should tuck our tail between the legs, take our ball and go play elsewhere is ridiculous man. We are nowhere near getting in a P5 conference right now, and if you think we are you are completely delusional (like many fans are - they see what they want to see). Your OP asked whether SDSU should aspire to get into a P5 conference and that's the question Matt answered and then you criticize him for allegedly arguing we will. As Matt said, your question was dumb and your response to him was equally dumb. |
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Post by MontezumaPhil on Sept 7, 2014 12:36:53 GMT -8
The thing is, in the 70's we went 10-1 and 11-0 playing mediocre out of conference competition. We'd typically schedule one fairly tough team, and the rest would be mediocre competition when it came to our out of conference schedule. It worked. We dominated the teams we were supposed to dominate, and every now and then we'd beat a supposedly superior team. Would that strategy work today? The wins would come, but would the fans? No, absolutely not. We will either play big-boy football or we will get out of the sport. And the decision to get out of the sport would not be ours, it would be made for us. |
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Post by tuff on Sept 7, 2014 12:38:54 GMT -8
Small fish in a big pond. Why waste the money for second rate opponents and players.
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Post by AztecWilliam on Sept 7, 2014 12:43:57 GMT -8
We are nowhere near getting in a P5 conference right now, and if you think we are you are completely delusional (like many fans are - they see what they want to see). Your OP asked whether SDSU should aspire to get into a P5 conference and that's the question Matt answered and then you criticize him for allegedly arguing we will. As Matt said, your question was dumb and your response to him was equally dumb. Whenever I agree with Erik, familial issues arise, but I have to agree with him anyway. Right now our recruiting, while good and better than five years ago, is still far below that of most P5 schools. That being the case, it will always be extremely hard to compete with those elite programs. I concede that the rating system for recurits is far from perfect. But that system is clearly valid enough that comparisons between different recruiting classes are valid,. A school that is getting mostly 4 and 5 star athletes, such as USC, Alabama, and Ohio State is virtually certain to dominate schools that are getting mostly 2 star athletes with an occasional one given 3 stars. That's why Idaho, New Mexico State, and Florida International seldom if ever beat a P5 school. Money is virtually the only reason that those lower ranked schools even schedule Top-25 schools. The have-nots are, frankly, desperate to get enough money to limp along with a football program. Look at last night. Quinn Kaehler is a good QB, but we needed a superior one. If a Billy Blanton had been under center, I think we would have won, perhaps handily. P5 schools, certainly the top 2/3 of them, get those 4 and 5 star QBs. They don't have to rely on walk-ons. We have been lucky to have Quinn, who has played well generally, but those 3 INTs killed us. That's the difference between a good P5 team and a good G5 one; the overall depth of the former is almost always better than that of the latter, and at every position. So I must agree that we are a long way from being competitive with even the mid-level teams from the Pac-12, Big-12, etc. I hope we will someday be as strong as those, but if we get to that level it will be one hell of an accomplishment. I realize that some fans want us to keep beating our heads against the wall by traveling great distances to play clearly superior teams who can afford to hand us a nice, fat check after the final gun does off. I just wish that those who make the schedules would start insisting that we get home-and-home deals. Arizona and UCLA and Oregon State, in other words some of the Western schools, seem willing to do so. But how about North Carolina or Penn State? Let's have enough faith in our program to insist that schools such as the latter two hop on a plane and visit our lovely city. They might like it. AzWm |
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Post by csfoster on Sept 7, 2014 12:44:38 GMT -8
Go with class or do not go at all.
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Post by The Aztec Panther on Sept 7, 2014 12:46:47 GMT -8
We are nowhere near getting in a P5 conference right now, and if you think we are you are completely delusional (like many fans are - they see what they want to see). Your OP asked whether SDSU should aspire to get into a P5 conference and that's the question Matt answered and then you criticize him for allegedly arguing we will. As Matt said, your question was dumb and your response to him was equally dumb. Perhaps I should have been clearer. Should SDSU even bother to try to get into a P5 conference? All we've seen over the last 20 years is futility in trying to elevate the program to a major conference. We lose almost all the games we need to win in order to be taken seriously, and we lose games that we shouldn't to inferior competition on an annual basis. Are we shooting ourselves in the collective foot in an attempt to jump up to the next level? Unless the school is prepared to put significantly more money into the program we are highly unlikely to see the kind of success against P5 teams in the Top 25 that we need to see in order to make that jump. We can beat lesser teams. We can dominate at the MWC level (and lower, for OOC games). Can we beat P5 teams in the Top 25 often enough to be taken seriously? Can we beat them at all? Thy college football system is rigged. The big boys don't want us elevated, so we're fighting against the tide. No, it's not impossible to succeed in that attempt, but it's extremly difficult at best. |
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