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Post by legkick on Jan 7, 2014 11:17:54 GMT -8
The down side of being a mediocre team is that you don't get to draft in the top three and get someone like Kris Bryant. Unfortunately, the Padres blew their most recent chance with Donavan Tate. And we can all rip open the old Matt Bush wound, the worst baseball moment of John Moores' tenure as owner.
The lower you draft, the more likely it is that you'll have to get lucky to get a future star.
ps - Yasmani Grandal can hit.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 13:02:28 GMT -8
The down side of being a mediocre team is that you don't get to draft in the top three and get someone like Kris Bryant. Unfortunately, the Padres blew their most recent chance with Donavan Tate. And we can all rip open the old Matt Bush wound, the worst baseball moment of John Moores' tenure as owner. The lower you draft, the more likely it is that you'll have to get lucky to get a future star. ps - Yasmani Grandal can hit. I like Grandal, also. My response was on Hedges. Though, I'll agree it's too early to really judge his offensive prowess.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 13:08:58 GMT -8
The down side of being a mediocre team is that you don't get to draft in the top three and get someone like Kris Bryant. Unfortunately, the Padres blew their most recent chance with Donavan Tate. And we can all rip open the old Matt Bush wound, the worst baseball moment of John Moores' tenure as owner. The lower you draft, the more likely it is that you'll have to get lucky to get a future star. ps - Yasmani Grandal can hit. The Padres have picked plenty early enough to acquire premier talent. Off the top of my head Mike Trout was picked 25th, Clayton Kershaw 7th, and Jared Weaver was high teens or so. Amateur scouting, and drafting & development has been a problem in San Diego for a long time. Perhaps it's improved, but it seems as if the current regime has been picking a lot of high schoolers early, so we may not see the fruits of this labor for a few years.
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Post by legkick on Jan 7, 2014 13:23:01 GMT -8
The Padres have picked plenty early enough to acquire premier talent. Off the top of my head Mike Trout was picked 25th, Clayton Kershaw 7th, and Jared Weaver was high teens or so. Amateur scouting, and drafting & development has been a problem in San Diego for a long time. Perhaps it's improved, but it seems as if the current regime has been picking a lot of high schoolers early, so we may not see the fruits of this labor for a few years. You can do this to every team. 24 teams passed on Trout. The year Clayton Kershaw was drafted 7th was 2006; the Padres picked 17th. The year they truly messed up, due to signability, was 2004. Verlander was the 2nd pick; both Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew weren't picked by the Padres because of their demands. If people want the Padres to more aggressively draft, high schoolers are usually the highest risk, highest reward players.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 14:46:35 GMT -8
The point of the argument wasn't Trout being passed up. It's to challenge your statement that the Padres are not picking high enough for impact players. Respectfully, that is ludicrous.
Truth be told, you seem like you know baseball and I don't mean to get into an intense debate. We can simply agree to disagree, but you can't say the Padres are not in a position to draft talent that has/can develop into All-Star quality. The FACT remains that the Padres have been inept at drafting and developing marquee talent, since even before the Alderson front office.
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Post by aztecron on Jan 7, 2014 15:32:58 GMT -8
Padres have also lacked in the developmental aspect of our minor league players over the past 10-12 years in my opinion. So, bad drafting and crappy development have seen us come to where we are presently, in my opinion.
We have recently developed players like Venable, Headley, Hundley and the like. Not great players, not terrible players, just players. Off of the top of my head over the last 20 years we've developed elite propsects such as Peavy, Latos and maybe Gyorko. I'm sure I'm leaving two or three players off as I can't seem to remember more that off of the top of my head. Hard to give credit for Gonzo as he had already been in development with the Marlins and Rangers before we got him.
Our downfall has been the inability to identify and sign MLB quality talent in the draft and the inability to develop said talent into an elite level player.
I appreciate the steps our front office has taken to resolve that of late and really like our minor league system now. But, to borrow from a cliche we all know, the proof is in the pudding. It doesn't matter what we have down there until the system can provide us with players who can make an impact with the Padres or as trade material for budding stars. So far that hasn't happened yet.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 16:58:55 GMT -8
Great post, Ron!
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Post by aztecron on Jan 8, 2014 9:21:18 GMT -8
Padres have also lacked in the developmental aspect of our minor league players over the past 10-12 years in my opinion. So, bad drafting and crappy development have seen us come to where we are presently, in my opinion. We have recently developed players like Venable, Headley, Hundley and the like. Not great players, not terrible players, just players. Off of the top of my head over the last 20 years we've developed elite propsects such as Peavy, Latos and maybe Gyorko. I'm sure I'm leaving two or three players off as I can't seem to remember more that off of the top of my head. Hard to give credit for Gonzo as he had already been in development with the Marlins and Rangers before we got him. Our downfall has been the inability to identify and sign MLB quality talent in the draft and the inability to develop said talent into an elite level player. I appreciate the steps our front office has taken to resolve that of late and really like our minor league system now. But, to borrow from a cliche we all know, the proof is in the pudding. It doesn't matter what we have down there until the system can provide us with players who can make an impact with the Padres or as trade material for budding stars. So far that hasn't happened yet. Agree with Jonesy; this is spot on. The only area on which I'd differ is the duration of the problem. It's really been going on since 1969. There might be more, but I can think of only a handful of really good players that were homegrown: GREATSWinfield Gwynn Alomar Ozzie Smith "GOODS"Peavy Kruk Santiago There have to be more...who am I missing? We've seen so many Dave Hiltons and Mike Champions and Carmelo Martinezes that I don't know how we've been able to stand it all these years. Very true, but in the distant past we were able to get some talent out of the draft and develop it at the MLB level. The past 10-12 years have abysmal at best.
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 8, 2014 10:19:49 GMT -8
The last couple of years have been far better than the previous 10 years. Rymer Lariano is near ready to comtribute. I think he will be a star.
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 8, 2014 10:22:44 GMT -8
1. The Padres can't afford yet another mediocre bat. If we had more power at the corners, Hedges would almost certainly be the answer at catcher for his defense alone. However, we don't. 2. I'm not saying that Hundley is the next Johnny Bench (either offensively or defensively), but I think it's fair to give him a full season behind the plate. Another of my many pet peeves is that we always seem to be shuffling guys around. If they think they have something in Will Venable or whoever, put the SOB out there for 500AB. Grandal is trouble city IMO. 3. Renfroe might currently be a "low OBP outmaker," but he's a guy who I think will actually be able to drive in the guys who actually can get on base. 4. Hell I'm behind the times on almost everything. You're right; I'd forgotten about that. 5. I think they should (at least most of the time) be no worse than 21st in MLB in payroll. If that's too much, then I guess I'll never go to another game because I won't go until they are. They sold this substandard ballpark on the premise that San Diego Stadium alone was keeping them from spending money on players. So far---after almost ten years---this has proven to be a lie. 1. Break out of old paradigms, JYP; they don't serve you or the Padres. It is a myth that you need power from the corners and corner outfielders. In today's game, teams like the Padres take power where they can get it. The Padres have power from 2B of all places. The Padres can't afford power from traditional position free agents, but if they can develop some in Liriano and Renfroe that will be great. 2. A team like the Padres needs to shuffle guys around to obtain platoon advantages. That is one of the ways they can compete with bigger market teams, because platoons are still undervalued money wise. However, I do agree that Venable has demonstrated that he at least deserves more at bats this year, to see if last year wasn't a fluke. Unfortunately, that takes away at bats from Denorfia, who has been surprisingly valuable to the team.3. You have to make contact to drive guys in on a consistent basis, but there aren't many Miguel Cabreras out there. Guys with .300 OBP do not add enough offensive value because what they give with runners on base they take away so much more when they aren't. 5. I can live with an 18-25 range in payroll. Right now, they have a relative advantage over similar teams because of the Fox Sports television contract; that will disappear as the mid- to smaller-market teams get their new TV contracts. Jack Murphy was terrible for the Padres because the lease was heavily in favor of the Chargers. There was no lie. The Padres' player payroll in Petco far exceeds what it would have been in Jack Murphy*. Enough to sign major free agents? No, because the ability to do that is driven by TV contracts, not stadia, and the Padres had an awful contract with Cox before the FSSD deal. *Player payroll in the latter years of Jack Murphy (1981 on) was often higher than revenues supported, because of owners like Ray Kroc and John Moores, Kroc because he had a lot of money, and Moores b/c of the same plus he wanted a new stadium. #2 above: I predict, Venable will win the CF spot and Denorfia will platoon with Seth Smith.
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Post by legkick on Jan 8, 2014 10:48:46 GMT -8
The point of the argument wasn't Trout being passed up. It's to challenge your statement that the Padres are not picking high enough for impact players. Respectfully, that is ludicrous. Pretty sure you misunderstand. By impact players, I was only referring to players who were considered impact players before the draft. That is why I mentioned Kris Bryant. Mike Trout was not so considered; he was a late mover into the bottom of the first round when he was drafted, and considered a toolsy project, not a likely All-Star, and certainly not the best player in the game. Including and since Alderson, the Padres' overall drafting record compares well on balance with other teams, even more so since Hoyer and Byrnes. This was tempered by Towers' awful track record, which partially occurred under Alderson. Prior to Alderson, it was mostly dreadful all the way back to Trader Jack. Agree on the inability to develop marquee talent, particularly position player talent; they haven't done that since Gwynn, Alomar and Baerga.
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Post by aardvark on Jan 9, 2014 13:02:14 GMT -8
1. The Padres can't afford yet another mediocre bat. If we had more power at the corners, Hedges would almost certainly be the answer at catcher for his defense alone. However, we don't. 2. I'm not saying that Hundley is the next Johnny Bench (either offensively or defensively), but I think it's fair to give him a full season behind the plate. Another of my many pet peeves is that we always seem to be shuffling guys around. If they think they have something in Will Venable or whoever, put the SOB out there for 500AB. Grandal is trouble city IMO. 3. Renfroe might currently be a "low OBP outmaker," but he's a guy who I think will actually be able to drive in the guys who actually can get on base. 4. Hell I'm behind the times on almost everything. You're right; I'd forgotten about that. 5. I think they should (at least most of the time) be no worse than 21st in MLB in payroll. If that's too much, then I guess I'll never go to another game because I won't go until they are. They sold this substandard ballpark on the premise that San Diego Stadium alone was keeping them from spending money on players. So far---after almost ten years---this has proven to be a lie. 1. Break out of old paradigms, JYP; they don't serve you or the Padres. It is a myth that you need power from the corners and corner outfielders. In today's game, teams like the Padres take power where they can get it. The Padres have power from 2B of all places. The Padres can't afford power from traditional position free agents, but if they can develop some in Liriano and Renfroe that will be great. 2. A team like the Padres needs to shuffle guys around to obtain platoon advantages. That is one of the ways they can compete with bigger market teams, because platoons are still undervalued money wise. However, I do agree that Venable has demonstrated that he at least deserves more at bats this year, to see if last year wasn't a fluke. Unfortunately, that takes away at bats from Denorfia, who has been surprisingly valuable to the team. 3. You have to make contact to drive guys in on a consistent basis, but there aren't many Miguel Cabreras out there. Guys with .300 OBP do not add enough offensive value because what they give with runners on base they take away so much more when they aren't. 5. I can live with an 18-25 range in payroll. Right now, they have a relative advantage over similar teams because of the Fox Sports television contract; that will disappear as the mid- to smaller-market teams get their new TV contracts. Jack Murphy was terrible for the Padres because the lease was heavily in favor of the Chargers. There was no lie. The Padres' player payroll in Petco far exceeds what it would have been in Jack Murphy*. Enough to sign major free agents? No, because the ability to do that is driven by TV contracts, not stadia, and the Padres had an awful contract with Cox before the FSSD deal. *Player payroll in the latter years of Jack Murphy (1981 on) was often higher than revenues supported, because of owners like Ray Kroc and John Moores, Kroc because he had a lot of money, and Moores b/c of the same plus he wanted a new stadium. The only reason the lease was so one-sided to the Chargers was that John Moores signed all ad revenue over to the Chargers around the time of the last stadium expansion--a calculated risk by Padres ownership in their plan to get their own ballpark. It worked.
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Post by aztecron on Jan 10, 2014 10:26:18 GMT -8
The last couple of years have been far better than the previous 10 years. Rymer Lariano is near ready to comtribute. I think he will be a star. While I agree with you, Bill, we need to see a true pipeline to the big league level. I'm excited too, especially with the progress Gyorko made through the minors and now at the big league level. It shows this staff can at the minimum develop talent or at least get out of the way for talent to develop itself. If our pitchers from down below pan out and Liriano, Peterson the SS, Renfro, Hedges and others make an impact in the bigs, then I'll believe were "there."
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Post by AztecBill on Jan 10, 2014 10:29:53 GMT -8
The last couple of years have been far better than the previous 10 years. Rymer Lariano is near ready to comtribute. I think he will be a star. While I agree with you, Bill, we need to see a true pipeline to the big league level. I'm excited too, especially with the progress Gyorko made through the minors and now at the big league level. It shows this staff can at the minimum develop talent or at least get out of the way for talent to develop itself. If our pitchers from down below pan out and Liriano, Peterson the SS, Renfro, Hedges and others make an impact in the bigs, then I'll believe were "there." In the very recent times an injury meant an in season trade for a washed up vet to replace the player. Now we seem to be able to promote a minor leaguer whenever that situation arises.
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Post by aztecron on Jan 10, 2014 18:54:56 GMT -8
While I agree with you, Bill, we need to see a true pipeline to the big league level. I'm excited too, especially with the progress Gyorko made through the minors and now at the big league level. It shows this staff can at the minimum develop talent or at least get out of the way for talent to develop itself. If our pitchers from down below pan out and Liriano, Peterson the SS, Renfro, Hedges and others make an impact in the bigs, then I'll believe were "there." In the very recent times an injury meant an in season trade for a washed up vet to replace the player. Now we seem to be able to promote a minor leaguer whenever that situation arises. It would seem that way. Let's continue to see players earn a spot in the bigs and be promoted. Liriano is one of my favorites as far as minor leaguers go.
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